水库滑坡复活机理及其发展趋势预测研究

Various numbers of ancient landslides of various scales are frequently distributed on both banks of reservoirs, especially large reservoirs, both in China and abroad. During inundation and operation of theses reservoirs, some of the landslides are reactivated, which caused losses of people's lives and properties to various extents, some even disasters. Systematic studies are, however, very few on the reservoir-induced reactivation mechanism and development tendency prediction. Based on investigation of reservoir-induced reactivation phenomena of ancient landslides and relevant existing research problems, a systematic study is carried out on the field identification, induced reactivation mechanism, development tendency prediction, risk decision-making and treatment of reservoir-related ancient landslides, through analysis of large numbers of engineering geological investigation results, scientific experimental and research results, in combination with prevention and treatment practices of reservoir-related landslides both in China and abroad, and a series of research results have been obtained. 1. On the basis of study of the distribution features, genesis mechanism of ancient landslides on river banks, a set of scientific methods are summarized on field identification of ancient landslides, and a significant method named "lithologic sequence method" or "indicator layer method", is proposed, which is proved to be very useful. 2. A detail study is made on the reservoir-induced hydraulic effects and material mechanic effects (or softening effects) on the ancient landslide through model and case studies, which concludes that the magnitude and properties of reservoir-induced hydraulic effects are related to the shapes of sliding planes, water content and permeability of landslide materials and variation rate and magnitude of reservoir levels; the magnitude of material mechanic effects are related to the material composition (including mineral composition and grain size), natural water content and saturation state of sliding zones. Also a sensitive analysis is made on the factors that are related to the stabilities of the landslides, which indicate that the stability of a landslide is more sensitive to the groundwater head h_w in the slides and the inner friction angleψof sliding zones than others. 3. The joint inducing mechanism of rainfall and reservoir is also discussed in the paper through model analysis and case study, which proves that reservoir inundation increases firstly the sensitivity of a landslides to rainfall through reduction of its stability or cracking deformation which will increase the rainfall infiltration to the slide body, and then rainfall triggers reactivation or intensifies the reservoir-induced deformation of a landslide. 4. Based on rheologic test results of sliding zones of several reservoir-related ancient landslides, the rheologic characteristics of sliding zones have been discussed in detail and several typical rheologic models have been set up, which well explains the dynamic process of slide deformation. The response types to reservoir inundation and development tendency of reservoir -related ancient landslide are discussed in the paper based on field investigation results. And prediction methods for reservoir-related landslides have been studied based on the Mate-Synthetic principle of quantitative and qualitative analysis, as well as combination of computation and internal mechanism analysis, and a rheologic analytical method is proposed which is proved very useful for prediction of the landslide development tendency. 6. In disaster-prevention and treatment of reservoir-related landslides, risk decision-making has been proved very significant both in engineering and economics. Based on the practices in disaster-prevention and treatment of reservoir-related landslides both in China and abroad, the disaster-prevention risk decision-making for reservoir-related landslides has been proposed in terms of philosophy, methods and procedures, and well put into practice. A summary is also made through case study of the experiences of treatment of reservoir-related landslides both in China and abroad in terms of principle, methods and technical lines. 7 A detail study is made as a case study of the reactivated Maoping ancient landslide on the left bank of the Geheyan Reservoir on Qingjiang river in Hubei province, China, including its field identification features, reservoir-induced reactivation characteristics and mechanism, development tendency prediction and proposed counter measures based on risk analysis.

高山峡谷地区大跨度桥梁岸坡稳定性分析、趋势预测及应用研究

In order to realize fast development of the national economy in a healthy way and coordinate progress with whole society, the country has implemented the strategy of development of the western region. An important action of finishing this strategic task is to accelerate the highway construction in the western region, join the western region and places along the coast, the river, the border with goods and materials, technology, and personnel interchanges, and then drive development of the local economy.The western region was influenced by the Himalaya Tectonization in Cenozoic, and the crust rose and became the plateau. In the course of rising, rivers cut down sharply to form a lot of high mountains and gorges.Because of topography and geomorphology, bridges in the traffic construction in the alpine gorge area are needed. Rivers have characteristics of large flow, fast velocity and high and steep river valley, so building a pier in the river is not only very difficult, but also making the cost increase. At the same time, the impact that the pier is corroded and the bridge base that is drawn to be empty by flow are apt to cause destruction of the pier. For those reasons, suspending bridge and cable-stay bridge are usually adopted with the single and large span. For the large span bridge, the pier foundation could receive ten thousand and more vertical strength, bending moment and near kiloton horizontal thrust.Because bank slope in the alpine gorge district is cut deeply and unsettled big, natural stability is worse under endogenic and exogenic force. When bank slope bears heavy vertical strength, bending moment and horizontal thrust facing the river, it will inevitably make the balance state of rock and soil mass change, bridge bank slope deform, and even destroyed. So the key problem at the time of the large span's bridge construction in the alpine gorge area is how to make it stable.So based on the spot investigation, the Engineering Geology Analysis Method is very important to grasp the bank slope stability. It can provide the bank slope stability macroscopic ally and qualitatively, and reference to the indoor calculation. The Engineering Geology Analysis Method is that by way of analyzing and investigating terms of bank slope instability, stability development trend, the ancient rock slide and devolution in the site, stability comprehensive evaluation primarily, current and future stability of bank slope is gotten, realizing the intention to serving the concrete engineering.After the Engineering Geology Analysis Method is applied to project instances of BeiPan River Bridge and BaLin River Bridge, results are accord with bank slope actual conditions, which proves sites are suited to building bridges from site stability.we often meet bank slope stability issues in the traffic construction in the alpine gorge areao Before the evaluation of the bank slope stability, the engineering geological condition is investigated first. After that, the next exploration target and geology measures are decided. So, the Engineering Geology Analysis Method that the investigation of the engineering geological condition is the main content is quite important in practice. The other evaluations of the bank slope stability are based on it. Because foundation receives very heavy load, for the big span's bridge in the alpine gorge area, a long pile of the large diameter (D^0.8m) is usually selected. In order to reflect rock mass's deformation properties under rock-socketed pile function, the author has used the FLAG30 software for rock and soil mass and done many numerical simulations. By them, the author launches the further investigation on deformation properties of bank slope under different slope angle, pile length, diameter, elastic modulus, load, bank slope's structure, etc. Some conclusion meaningful to the design and produce are obtained.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

Convergence Results for the EM Approach to Mixtures of Experts Architectures

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative approach to maximum likelihood parameter estimation. Jordan and Jacobs (1993) recently proposed an EM algorithm for the mixture of experts architecture of Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan and Hinton (1991) and the hierarchical mixture of experts architecture of Jordan and Jacobs (1992). They showed empirically that the EM algorithm for these architectures yields significantly faster convergence than gradient ascent. In the current paper we provide a theoretical analysis of this algorithm. We show that the algorithm can be regarded as a variable metric algorithm with its searching direction having a positive projection on the gradient of the log likelihood. We also analyze the convergence of the algorithm and provide an explicit expression for the convergence rate. In addition, we describe an acceleration technique that yields a significant speedup in simulation experiments.

The Essential Dynamics Algorithm: Essential Results

This paper presents a novel algorithm for learning in a class of stochastic Markov decision processes (MDPs) with continuous state and action spaces that trades speed for accuracy. A transform of the stochastic MDP into a deterministic one is presented which captures the essence of the original dynamics, in a sense made precise. In this transformed MDP, the calculation of values is greatly simplified. The online algorithm estimates the model of the transformed MDP and simultaneously does policy search against it. Bounds on the error of this approximation are proven, and experimental results in a bicycle riding domain are presented. The algorithm learns near optimal policies in orders of magnitude fewer interactions with the stochastic MDP, using less domain knowledge. All code used in the experiments is available on the project's web site.

Program Improvement by Automatic Redistribution of Intermediate Results

Introducing function sharing into designs allows eliminating costly structure by adapting existing structure to perform its function. This can eliminate many inefficiencies of reusing general componentssin specific contexts. "Redistribution of intermediate results'' focuses on instances where adaptation requires only addition/deletion of data flow and unused code removal. I show that this approach unifies and extends several well-known optimization classes. The system performs search and screening by deriving, using a novel explanation-based generalization technique, operational filtering predicates from input teleological information. The key advantage is to focus the system's effort on optimizations that are easier to prove safe.

Girolando breed genetic improvement program - Sire summary - Progeny test results - July/2015.

The Girolando breed progeny test was established in 1997, as a result of the partnership between Girolando and Embrapa Dairy Cattle. In 2007, the Programa de Melhoramento Genético da Raça Girolando? PMGG (Genetic Improvement Program of the Girolando Breed) was implemented. Besides interacting with previously existing initiatives of the Girolando Breeders Association, such as the genealogical register service, the progeny test and the dairy control service, the PMGG launched the Linear Evaluation System (SLAG). The main objectives of the PMGG comprises identification of genetically superior individuals, the technically-oriented multiplication of genetics, the evaluation of economic traits and the promotion of sustainable dairy activities. The program have yielded impressive results. The Girolando breed semen sales increases faster than any other breed in Brazil.

Propagation of the degree of polarisation in a few-mode optical fibre: Experimental results

R. Zwiggelaar and M.G.F. Wilson, 'Propagation of the degree of polarisation in a few-mode optical fibre: Experimental results', International Journal of Optoelectronics 10 (4), 295-297 (1996)

Large-Amplitude nonlinear stability results for atmospheric circulations

Douglas, Robert; Cullen, M.J.P., (2002) 'Large-Amplitude nonlinear stability results for atmospheric circulations', The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129 pp.1969-1988 RAE2008

The D-CIXS X-ray spectrometer on the SMART-1 mission to the Moon - First Results

Grande, Manuel; Kellett, B.; Howe, C.; Perry, C.H., 'The D-CIXS X-ray spectrometer on the SMART-1 mission to the Moon - First Results', Planetary And Space Science (2007) 55(4) pp.494-502 RAE2008

Christian missions ; their agents, and their results / by T.W.M. Marshall.

http://www.archive.org/details/a592254601marsuoft