Buy, sell and chatter: A case analysis of a Lisbon flea market

This thesis aims explore the sociocultural as well as economic significance of the modern-day flea market, as a form of alternative marketplace system. More specifically, the main goal of the research is to determine the motivation for participation in flea markets of different participants, from vendors to consumers, using an interactionist perspective. By studying these groups in details, I seek to explore the embeddedness of social aspects in economic activity and vice versa. The basic assumption is to put aside the previous notions of the flea market as a second-order system with implied inferiority, and to explore the potential of the flea market to both challenge and complement more formal marketplace systems, by comparing and contrasting the flea market with market venues that belong to the formal sector. Feira da Ladra in Lisbon, Portugal, the oldest a hugely successful flea market in Europe, was chosen to be the research site, where its economic participants were studied in details in various exchanges, using naturalistic observations, semi-structured interviews and a sociocultural perspective.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

The Portuguese contemporary art as an investment

In this paper we investigate what drives the prices of Portuguese contemporary art at auction and explore the potential of art as an asset. Based on a hedonic prices model we construct an Art Price Index as a proxy for the Portuguese contemporary art market over the period of 1994 to 2014. A performance analysis suggests that art underperforms the S&P500 but overperforms the Portuguese stock market and American Government bonds. However, It does it at the cost of higher risk. Results also show that art as low correlation with financial markets, evidencing some potential in risk mitigation when added to traditional equity portfolios.

Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Evidence of market anomalies in the Eurozone: A practical implementation

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Double Degree in Finance and Financial Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

The financial system in Mozambique: Opportunities, barriers and market potential

This research is empirical and exploratory intending to analyse the attractiveness of banking in Mozambique, considering its positive outlook. To identify the opportunities and barriers, the methods adopted were elite interviews with banking executives, complemented by secondary data. The opportunities for new entrants seem to include bankarization and the emergence of micro and smallmedium enterprises; other avenues seem to include investment banking, support of mega-projects (e.g. energy, infrastructures) through syndicates and cooperation with multilaterals, and the participation in developing capital markets. Conversely, the main barriers include shortage of talent, inadequate infrastructures, poverty, unsophisticated entrepreneurial culture (e.g. informal economy, inadequate financial reporting), burdensome bureaucracy (e.g. visas), foreign exchange regulation, as well as low liquidity and high funding costs for banks. The key conclusions suggest a window of opportunity for niche markets, and new products and services in retail and investment banking.

Market value of corruption

This paper studies the impact of the Brazilian anticorruption legislation, PL 6826/2010, on stock returns. I show that, around the law approval date, the greater the link between the corporate and political worlds, the worse is the companies’ performance. Companies awarded with public contracts in 2012 suffer more with the new legislation approval. Firms with above median contract values have 2.9% lower returns than its peers. The negative effect is more pronounced for bigger and more complex entities, associated with higher levels of Corporate Responsibility and Governance and not subject to the US FCPA.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

An internationalisation research project into the German market for the Portuguese canned seafood company COFACO.

This project is aimed to analyse the German market of canned fish, in order to find out if there is potential of entering the market for the Portuguese canned seafood company named COFACO. The purpose of this foreign market research, carried out for COFACO, is to highlight the main key aspects of the current German seafood market, founded out through a deep analysis. Moreover, the work project is also aimed to give the company suggestions regarding the Brand, the Product and the Distribution strategy to implement in order to succeed, once considered the opportunity to enter the market.

Fruta com cheiro: The implementation of a new brand of fruit in the Portuguese market

‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’ is an idea for a new brand of fruit that would be introduced in the Portuguese market that would differentiate itself from the brands already in the market and from other non-branded fruit producers. In order to prove that the idea was valid and would have a place in the market, two methods of exploratory research were used – in-depth interviews and focus groups – to understand attitudes and behaviors regarding fruit selection and purchase and also people’s perceptions to ‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’. After these two steps, several considerations were made in relation to preliminary marketing aspects such as brand creation and positioning. There was also a final remark on the fact that this thesis is not a business plan and its purpose was to show how viable would the project be.