978 resultados para Arabic language--Glossaries, vocabularies, etc--Early works to 1800


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This thesis is an attempt to explore the problems faced by Indian Women and to examine the ways in which the human rights of women could be better protected in the light of international movements with special reference to national legislation and judicial decisions.The evolution of human rights from early period to Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 1948 is traced in the first chapter. The second chapter deals with the evolution of human rights in India. The evolution of fundamental rights and directive principles and the role played by the Indian Judiciary in enforcing the human rights enumerated in various international instruments dealing with human rights are also dealt with in this chapter. The rights guaranteed to women under the various international documents have been dealt with in the third chapter.It is noticed that the international documents have had their impact in India leading to creation of machinery for protection of human rights. Organised violations of women's rights such as prostitution, devadasi system, domestic violence, sexual harassment at workplaces, the evil of dowry, female infanticide etc. have been analysed in the light of existing laws and decisional jurisprudence in the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter analyses the decisions and consensus that emerged from the world conferences on women and their impact on the Indian Society and Judiciary. The constitutional provisions and legislative provisions protecting the rights of women have been critically examined in the sixth chapter. Chapter seven deals with various mechanisms evolved to protect the human rights of women. The eighth chapter contains conclusions and suggestions.

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El artículo examina las relaciones entre filosofía y literatura, partir de un examen de la noción de Archipiélago de Lyotard. Lyotard propone una comprensión del lenguaje como la multitud de las formas de constitución de los discursos. La obra literaria se toma como la posibilidad de la convivencia de la multitud de los discursos. Entonces se examinan las propuestas de Bajtín y Derrida, para mostrar cómo la filosofía se apropia del texto literario. Bajtín habla de una polifonía de la obra literaria, en la cual diversas voces confluyen al interior del texto. Derrida se apropia de esta polifonía, y su filosofía es una construcción de espacios para la convivencia de muchas y contradictorias escrituras al interior de sus obras. De esta forma, la literatura se entiende como una manera de habitar el lenguaje, que pretende abrirse hacia diferentes voces, diferentes otredades. La filosofía, al aproximarse a estas escrituras, se abre ella misma hacia la experiencia de un afuera en el que residen multitudes de otros.

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Introducción: El tratamiento con antagonistas del factor de necrosis tumoral alfa (anti TNF) ha impactado el pronóstico y la calidad de vida de los pacientes con artritis reumatoide (AR) positivamente, sin embargo, se interroga un incremento en el riesgo de desarrollar melanoma. Objetivo: Conocer la asociación entre el uso de anti TNF y el desarrollo de melanoma maligno en pacientes con AR. Metodología: Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática en MEDLINE, EMBASE, COCHRANE LIBRARY y LILACS para ensayos clínicos, estudios observacionales, revisiones y meta-análisis en pacientes adultos con diagnóstico de AR y manejo con anti TNF (Certolizumab pegol, Adalimumab, Etanercept, Infliximab y Golimumab). Resultados: 37 estudios clínicos cumplieron los criterios de inclusión para el meta-análisis, con una población de 16567 pacientes. El análisis de heterogeneidad no fue significativo (p=1), no se encontró diferencia en el riesgo entre los grupos comparados DR -0.00 (IC 95% -0.001; -0.001). Un análisis adicional de los estudios en los que se reportó al menos 1 caso de melanoma (4222 pacientes) tampoco mostró diferencia en el riesgo DR -0.00 (IC 95% -0.004 ; -0.003). Conclusión: En la evidencia disponible a la fecha no encontramos asociación significativa entre el tratamiento con anti TNF en pacientes con diagnóstico de AR y el desarrollo de melanoma cutáneo.

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En este artículo se presenta el caso de Milao, un entorno virtual que ofrece a los estudiantes de idiomas extranjeros la oportunidad de desarrollar y mejorar sus habilidades comunicativas dialogando en escenarios de conversación predefinidos que simulan la interacción con un nativo. Esta tecnología propone una solución a uno de los mayores retos en el aprendizaje de lenguas extranjeras: la falta de oportunidades para poner en práctica la gramática y el vocabulario recién adquiridos. Combinando la investigación sobre la lingüística y el aprendizaje de lenguas con los avances tecnológicos en el campo del Procesamiento del Lenguaje Natural (NPL), particularmente sobre sistemas de diálogo, hemos creado oportunidades en la demanda de los estudiantes a conversar en la lengua que tratan de aprender.

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Aquesta tesi està centrada en l'estudi dels períodes de regressió i transició. A partir dels treballs de van de Rijt-Plooij & Plooij (1992) sobre els períodes de regressió, l'autor analitza les característiques comportamentals d'aquests períodes i la relació que tenen amb els períodes de transició. Els períodes de regressió s'entenen com uns moments del desenvolupament durant els quals els nens perden la homeostasi del seu organisme i manifesten una sèrie de conductes pertorbadores per a la mare. El matrimoni Plooij manté que els períodes de regressió són la manifestació de les reorganitzacions cerebrals que tenen lloc durant el període postnatal, i constitueixen la base de les noves habilitats que el nen va adquirint. Així, doncs, l'augment de l'atenció que la mare dispensa al nen durant els períodes de regressió esdevé una font estimular imprescindible en els processos d'educació i culturalització de l'infant. Per tant, els períodes de regressió estan íntimament relacionats amb els períodes durant els quals apareixen nous comportaments qualitativament diferents dels anteriors, que es manifesten de forma ràpida i sobtada, permetent una certa sistematització del procés evolutiu, per la qual cosa s'han denominat transicions. Van de Rijt-Plooij & Plooij, i també nosaltres, considerem que els períodes de regressió són índexs dels períodes de transició. Per aquesta raó també s'han denominar reprogressions. Tanmateix, els períodes de regressió es poden convertir en una font de conflictes que, en situació de risc, poden degenerar en maltractament infantil i, fins i tot, esdevenir el germen de possibles patogènies. Com veiem, els conceptes de període de regressió i transició es troben a l'encreuament entre la fisiologia, la psicologia i la psicopatologia del desenvolupament i, el seu estudi establiria un pont interdisciplinar que contribuiria a la construcció d'un model biopsicosocial del desenvolupament. Els objectius del nostre estudi varen ser comprovar si els períodes descrits per van de Rijt-Plooij i Plooij (1992) també els podem observar en un grup de nens de la població catalana sense problemes socio-econòmics o sanitaris aparents. Per altra banda, vàrem voler comprovar si els períodes de regressió tenen relació amb els períodes de transició. El disseny d'investigació correspon a un model longitudinal i transversal. Es varen seguir -mitjançant entrevistes, qüestionaris i observacions- vint diades mare-nen durant catorze mesos, repartides en quatre cohorts de cinc diades cada una d'elles. Partint d'uns criteris establerts a priori per a la categorització dels períodes de regressió i transició, vàrem estudiar la temporalitat d'ambdós tipus de períodes. També s'ha aprofundit sobre les característiques comportamentals i dinàmiques dels períodes de regressió. Respecte les dades, els percentatges màxims dels períodes de regressió del nostre grup d'estudi han aparegut a les setmanes: 5, 8, 12-13, 18, 26-27, 35, 43 i 52. La mitjana setmanal de cada període ha sigut de dues setmanes. Les nostres dades confirmen les obtingudes en la investigació de van de Rijt-Plooij & Plooij. Tanmateix, també hem trobat diferències (els períodes de regressió de l'estudi holandès són més llargs i coincideixen més) que ens suggereixen que la cultura podrien estar actuant en la forma de presentació del períodes de regressió. Pel que fa a la relació entre els períodes de regressió i l'emergència de nous comportaments (períodes de transició), els resultats mostren que les freqüències màximes dels períodes de regressió sempre es troben poques setmanes abans de les freqüències màximes dels períodes de transició. Per tant, és possible que els períodes de regressió siguin indicadors dels períodes de transició.

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La idea que per entendre alguna cosa hem d'entendre el procés pel qual s'ha produït va ser assumida des de l'origen de l'estudi "La construcció de la identitat nacional com a procés de desenvolupament des de la infància a l'adolescència a Catalunya". Per tal d'estudiar el procés de desenvolupament relacionat amb la construcció de la identitat nacional, no és suficient considerar-lo en el seu context social, sinó que és necessari considerar la seva construcció social. Tres objectius principals van orientar el nostre estudi . Primer, indagar si els processos de categorització, identificació, coneixement, imatge, avaluació i afecte són també elements implicats en la construcció de la identitat nacional des de la infància a l'adolescència. Segon investigar el procés de desenvolupament d'aquests elements des dels 6 anys fins als 15 anys per contribuir amb dades a I'explicació sobre com es desenvolupa del coneixement social. Tres són les explicacions principals; la primera que es basa en processos cognitius d'inclusió-decentració; la segona, si aquest desenvolupament es dóna en cercles concèntrics des de I'interior (contextos quotidians) fins a l'exterior (amb intercanvis més amples i una educació formal envers la vida social); i la tercera, si el desenvolupament del coneixement social d'allò més immediat i directe es reorganitzat i adquireix nous significats per la integració dels elements més generals i abstractes. Tercer, donat el fet que el 50% de les famílies tenen el català com a llengua materna, hem estudiat la influència de la llengua o llengües utilitzades en el context familiar en el procés de construcció de la identitat nacional. Es va dissenyar una entrevista individual seguint una estructura amb les parts següents: identificació subjectiva i identificació nacional; coneixement dels països; estereotips, avaluació i sentiments, i entorn social. La mostra del present estudi va estar formada per 495 nens i adolescents de 6, 9, 12 i 15 anys d'edat. Es va utilitzar per cada grup un número similar de nens i nenes. La mostra es va dividir en tres grups segons la o les llengües utilitzades pel nen o nena en el seu context familiar. Tres van ser les categones lingüístiques utilitzades: castellà, nens que només utilitzin el castellà a casa; català, nens que només usen el català en el context familiar; i bilingües, nens que utilitzin tots dos idiomes a casa. Aquestes categories lingüístiques s'han utilitzat com a indicador dels contextos familiars. Dues conclusions principals es poden extreure d'aquest estudi. Primer, I'ús de categories nacionals no és una conseqüència del procés cognitiu d'inclusió-decentració ni en cercles concentrics (concret/abstracte). La idea d'un procés del món en paral·lel, d'un coneixement que integra simultàniament creences i sentiments de l'ambient concret o proper i de l'abstracte o llunyà pot explicar millor els nostres resultats. Els nens aprenen i pensen sobre la vida quotidara, les característiques de l'ambient, la informació circulant en el seu entom social i la importància o els diferents nivells de coneixement depenent del context. Els nens integren la informació que està circulant en el seu ambient i construeixen un món que necessàriament no ha de coincidir amb el món deis adults, però que els ajuda a comunicar-se i a entendre les situacions en les quals estan immersos. Els nens més joves són capaços d'utilitzar categories nacionals de manera similar als adolescents. Segon, la identitat nacional a Catalunya es construeix al voltant del nucli de la llengua parlada a casa. A través de tot I'estudi es pot veure un resultat consistent i reiterat. Els infants d'un entom familiar en què s'usa només el castellà s'identifiquen com a pertanyents a tots dos grups nacionals, Espanyol i Català. Els infants d'un entom familiar que utilitzen només el català s'identifiquen com a pertanyents només al grup Català. Aquestes identificacions guien com aquests nens avaluen i senten envers el propi grup nacional i els altres. A més, sembla que el context sòcio-polític és un vehicle important en la transmissió de les estructures de semblances i que I'estructura d'afecte es transmet principalment a través de I'entom familiar.

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The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

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This paper presents a genesis of the French research field of Architecturology, from its creation to the current researches developed from it, at ARIAM-LAREA (National School of Architecture of Paris-la-Villette Laboratory of modeling for computer aids of cognitive activity of conception). Architecturology has been thought at the creation of French Schools of Architecture that has been initiated with the French movement of 1968 May. Its major aim is to build specific knowledge on architecture for learning architecture. The first book of the beginnings of this scientific field is “Sur l’espace architectural” written by Ph. Boudon and published in 1971. It’s currently constituted with a scientific systemic language and a paradigm that help to explain cognitive activity of design named by it, conception. This scientific language has been published in “Enseigner la conception architecturale: cours d’architecturologie” written by Ph. Boudon, Ph. Deshayes, F. Pousin and F. Shatz, and published in 1994 and in 2000, in “Echelle(s)” published in 2002 and which gathers different articles of Ph. Boudon and, in different articles of the team of LAREA - Ph. Boudon, Ph. Deshayes, F. Pousin, F. Shatz and C. Lecourtois. From this scientific language and the paradigm of Architecturology, I develop methods for extending the field of knowledge of this point of view by doing researches in architecture. These methods are gathered into the concept of Applied Architecturology. In 2005, LAREA has merged with a research team interested in Computer Aided Design, named ARIAM. To create ARIAM-LAREA, we have built a new research program on Computer Aided Conception where we use Applied Architecturology for 1) producing new knowledge on implications of Computer in cognitive activity of design and 2) developing new software to Support some operations of conception. This paper exposes my current research work and three theses that I co-lead at ARIAMLAREA on this object.

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In this study we evaluate processing costs of different types of anaphoric expressions during reading. We consider three types of anaphoric expressions in Subject sentential position: a null pronoun (pro), and two gaps produced by syntactic movement: a WHvariable and a NP copy. Given that coreferential pro exhibits more referential weight than wh- and NP-gaps, and grounded on theories of referential processing based on relations of hierarchy and accessibility of the antecedent, we raise the hypothesis that the more dependent on its antecedent the anaphoric null constituent is, and the more minimal is the distance in terms of hierarchical structure between the anaphoric null element and its antecedent, the lower are the cognitive costs in processing. To test our hypothesis, we registered the eye movements with R6-HS ASL system of 20 Portuguese adult native speakers. Text regions including the selected anaphoric expressions were delimited and tagged. We analyzed the reading time of each region taking into account the number and duration of eye fixations per region; we used the reading time by character in milliseconds in order to compare values between regions of different length. We found a significant advantage in the reading time of the gaps arising from movement over the reading time of pro.

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A presente pesquisa tem como Questão Central a avaliação da estrutura da narrativa por um grupo de seis crianças surdas profundas utilizando a Língua Gestual Portuguesa (LGP). Neste estudo questionou-se se se encontrariam diferenças na produção da narrativa entre crianças que adquiriram a LGP precocemente e as que tiveram o primeiro contato com a língua materna tardiamente. Colocou-se a hipótese geral que a língua natural das crianças surdas portuguesas é a LGP e as que tiveram um acesso precoce à sua língua apresentam um melhor desempenho na narração de uma história. Para verificar esta hipótese, foi aplicada uma prova que consistia no conto de uma história, a partir de uma sequência de imagens, em LGP a todos as crianças desta investigação. Releva-se a importância de um precoce ambiente comunicativo para que a criança surda adquira um desenvolvimento global semelhante aos seus pares ouvintes. Salienta-se ainda que a influência dos pais, dos educadores e dos professores é fundamental para que a criança surda possa desenvolver a sua língua natural, a LGP e a aprendizagem da segunda língua. Os resultados obtidos confirmaram as hipóteses colocadas, ou seja, as crianças que adquiriram precocemente a LGP apresentaram um maior desenvolvimento na estrutura da narrativa.

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A época atual exige que a escola se reformule e se adapte às exigências locais, nacionais e mundiais com as quais se confronta. O professor, ator principal das mudanças requeridas, vê aumentar significativamente as suas funções, necessitando de uma formação que corresponda às suas necessidades e que terá de efetivar ao longo de toda a sua vida profissional. Contudo, a formação proposta pelos centros de formação nem sempre se afigura a mais adequada. Para mudar, a escola precisa de lideranças fortes que apostem numa formação que vá ao encontro das necessidades sentidas e tente dar respostas eficazes. Tendo por base estes pressupostos, o presente projeto pretende investigar, no contexto particular de uma determinada escola, o modo como a(s) lideranças promovem uma dinâmica de escola aprendente e dinamizam formações que correspondam às necessidades sentidas. Este estudo permite-nos concluir que a(s) liderança(s) é um dos fatores que influencia fortemente o plano de formação, muito embora não seja o único. O entendimento que a(s) lideranças têm da formação, do desenvolvimento profissional e do futuro da escola, condiciona fortemente a dinâmica de escola que aprende. Decorrente da visão sobre a formação na escola alvo deste estudo, construiu-se um plano de ação de formação que assenta na criação de uma equipa de formação, team-teaching, centrada na escola, trabalhando colaborativamente, para dar início ao que poderá ser a solução para o problema identificado: uma formação que responda efetivamente e eficazmente às necessidades de formação dos professores da escola para fazer face às exigências da escola atual. Assim, partindo do team-teaching no departamento de línguas, tentar-se-á alargar a experiência e criar as bases para uma formação que promova a dinâmica de escola aprendente.

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Why are humans musical? Why do people in all cultures sing or play instruments? Why do we appear to have specialized neurological apparatus for hearing and interpreting music as distinct from other sounds? And how does our musicality relate to language and to our evolutionary history? Anthropologists and archaeologists have paid little attention to the origin of music and musicality — far less than for either language or ‘art’. While art has been seen as an index of cognitive complexity and language as an essential tool of communication, music has suffered from our perception that it is an epiphenomenal ‘leisure activity’, and archaeologically inaccessible to boot. Nothing could be further from the truth, according to Steven Mithen; music is integral to human social life, he argues, and we can investigate its ancestry with the same rich range of analyses — neurological, physiological, ethnographic, linguistic, ethological and even archaeological — which have been deployed to study language. In The Singing Neanderthals Steven Mithen poses these questions and proposes a bold hypothesis to answer them. Mithen argues that musicality is a fundamental part of being human, that this capacity is of great antiquity, and that a holistic protolanguage of musical emotive expression predates language and was an essential precursor to it. This is an argument with implications which extend far beyond the mere origins of music itself into the very motives of human origins. Any argument of such range is bound to attract discussion and critique; we here present commentaries by archaeologists Clive Gamble and Iain Morley and linguists Alison Wray and Maggie Tallerman, along with Mithen's response to them. Whether right or wrong, Mithen has raised fascinating and important issues. And it adds a great deal of charm to the time-honoured, perhaps shopworn image of the Neanderthals shambling ineffectively through the pages of Pleistocene prehistory to imagine them humming, crooning or belting out a cappella harmonies as they went.

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Some aspects of the use and misuse of scientific language are discussed, particularly in relation to quantity calculus, the names and symbols for quantities and units, and the choice of units – including the possible use of non-SI units. The discussion is intended to be constructive, and to suggest ways in which common usage can be improved.

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Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

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Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.