ONeSAMP: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, ONeSAMP that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. ONeSAMP requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. ONeSAMP provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of ONeSAMP with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Origin of avian genome size and structure in non-avian dinosaurs

Avian genomes are small and streamlined compared with those of other amniotes by virtue of having fewer repetitive elements and less non-coding DNA(1,2). This condition has been suggested to represent a key adaptation for flight in birds, by reducing the metabolic costs associated with having large genome and cell sizes(3,4). However, the evolution of genome architecture in birds, or any other lineage, is difficult to study because genomic information is often absent for long-extinct relatives. Here we use a novel bayesian comparative method to show that bone-cell size correlates well with genome size in extant vertebrates, and hence use this relationship to estimate the genome sizes of 31 species of extinct dinosaur, including several species of extinct birds. Our results indicate that the small genomes typically associated with avian flight evolved in the saurischian dinosaur lineage between 230 and 250 million years ago, long before this lineage gave rise to the first birds. By comparison, ornithischian dinosaurs are inferred to have had much larger genomes, which were probably typical for ancestral Dinosauria. Using comparative genomic data, we estimate that genome-wide interspersed mobile elements, a class of repetitive DNA, comprised 5 - 12% of the total genome size in the saurischian dinosaur lineage, but was 7 - 19% of total genome size in ornithischian dinosaurs, suggesting that repetitive elements became less active in the saurischian lineage. These genomic characteristics should be added to the list of attributes previously considered avian but now thought to have arisen in non-avian dinosaurs, such as feathers(5), pulmonary innovations 6, and parental care and nesting

Effects of body size and lifestyle on evolution of mammal life histories

It has recently been proposed that life-history evolution is subject to a fundamental size-dependent constraint. This constraint limits the rate at which biomass can be produced so that production per unit of body mass is inevitably slower in larger organisms than in smaller ones. Here we derive predictions for how changes in body size and production rates evolve in different lifestyles subject to this constraint. Predictions are tested by using data on the mass of neonate tissue produced per adult per year in 637 placental mammal species and are generally supported. Compared with terrestrial insectivores with generalized primitive traits, mammals that have evolved more specialized lifestyles have divergent massspecific production rates: (i) increased in groups that specialize on abundant and reliable foods: grazing and browsing herbivores (artiodactyls, lagomorphs, perissoclactyls, and folivorous rodents) and flesh-eating marine mammals (pinnipeds, cetaceans); and (ii) decreased in groups that have lifestyles with reduced death rates: bats, primates, arboreal, fossorial, and desert rodents, bears, elephants, and rhinos. Convergent evolution of groups with similar lifestyles is common, so patterns of productivity across mammalian taxa reflect both ecology and phylogeny. The overall result is that groups with different lifestyles have parallel but offset relationships between production rate and body size. These results shed light on the evolution of the fast-slow life-history continuum, suggesting that variation occurs along two axes corresponding to body size and lifestyle.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) canopy size on grass weed growth and grass weed seed return

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002-05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m(2) when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m(2). Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9 % when plant density was increased from 29-51 plants/m(2). Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m(2).

Vertical distribution, size and composition of the weed seedbank under various tillage and herbicide treatments in a sequence of industrial crops

Investigations were conducted during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 growing seasons in northern Greece to evaluate effects of tillage regime (mouldboard plough, chisel plough and rotary tiller), cropping sequence (continuous cotton, cotton-sugar beet rotation and continuous tobacco) and herbicide treatment on weed seedbank dynamics. Amaranthus spp. and Portulaca oleracea were the most abundant species, ranging from 76% to 89% of total weed seeds found in 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil depths during the 3 years. With the mouldboard plough, 48% and 52% of the weed seedbank was found in the 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil horizons, while approximately 60% was concentrated in the upper 15 cm soil horizon for chisel plough and rotary tillage. Mouldboard ploughing significantly buried more Echinochloa crus-galli seeds in the 15-30 cm soil horizon compared with the other tillage regimes. Total seedbank (0-30 cm) of P. oleracea was significantly reduced in cotton-sugar beet rotation compared with cotton and tobacco monocultures, while the opposite occurred for E. crus-galli. Total seed densities of most annual broad-leaved weed species (Amaranthus spp., P. oleracea, Solanum nigrum) and E. crus-galli were lower in herbicide treated than in untreated plots. The results suggest that in light textured soils, conventional tillage with herbicide use gradually reduces seed density of small seeded weed species in the top 15 cm over several years. In contrast, crop rotation with the early established sugar beet favours spring-germinating grass weed species, but also prevents establishment of summer-germinating weed species by the early developing crop canopy.

Allelic size standards and reference genotypes to unify international cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) microsatellite data

Standardisation of microsatellite allele profiles between laboratories is of fundamental importance to the transferability of genetic fingerprint data and the identification of clonal individuals held at multiple sites. Here we describe two methods of standardisation applied to the microsatellite fingerprinting of 429 Theobroma cacao L. trees representing 345 accessions held in the worlds largest Cocoa Intermediate Quarantine facility: the use of a partial allelic ladder through the production of 46 cloned and sequenced allelic standards (AJ748464 to AJ48509), and the use of standard genotypes selected to display a diverse allelic range. Until now a lack of accurate and transferable identification information has impeded efforts to genetically improve the cocoa crop. To address this need, a global initiative to fingerprint all international cocoa germplasm collections using a common set of 15 microsatellite markers is in progress. Data reported here have been deposited with the International Cocoa Germplasm Database and form the basis of a searchable resource for clonal identification. To our knowledge, this is the first quarantine facility to be completely genotyped using microsatellite markers for the purpose of quality control and clonal identification. Implications of the results for retrospective tracking of labelling errors are briefly explored.

The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Effect of plant density and initial crown size on growth, development and yield in strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero

The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate Bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N-e), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N-e. estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N-e. Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N-e show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N-e values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N-e estimators by comparing the SUMMStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated rising initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and Ne less than or equal to 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N-e. The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any, potentially informative summary statistic from Population genetic data.

The life history legacy of evolutionary body size change in carnivores

We estimate the body sizes of direct ancestors of extant carnivores, and examine selected aspects of life history as a function not only of species' current size, but also of recent changes in size. Carnivore species that have undergone marked recent evolutionary size change show life history characteristics typically associated with species closer to the ancestral body size. Thus, phyletic giants tend to mature earlier and have larger litters of smaller offspring at shorter intervals than do species of the same body size that are not phyletic giants. Phyletic dwarfs, by contrast, have slower life histories than nondwarf species of the same body size. We discuss two possible mechanisms for the legacy of recent size change: lag (in which life history variables cannot evolve as quickly as body size, leading to species having the 'wrong' life history for their body size) and body size optimization (in which life history and hence body size evolve in response to changes in energy availability); at present, we cannot distinguish between these alternatives. Our finding that recent body size changes help explain residual variation around life history allometries shows that a more dynamic view of character change enables comparative studies to make more precise predictions about species traits in the context of their evolutionary background.

Bergmann's rule and body size in mammals

Aim: To describe the geographical pattern of mean body size of the non-volant mammals of the Nearctic and Neotropics and evaluate the influence of five environmental variables that are likely to affect body size gradients. Location: The Western Hemisphere. Methods: We calculated mean body size (average log mass) values in 110 × 110 km cells covering the continental Nearctic and Neotropics. We also generated cell averages for mean annual temperature, range in elevation, their interaction, actual evapotranspiration, and the global vegetation index and its coefficient of variation. Associations between mean body size and environmental variables were tested with simple correlations and ordinary least squares multiple regression, complemented with spatial autocorrelation analyses and split-line regression. We evaluated the relative support for each multiple-regression model using AIC. Results: Mean body size increases to the north in the Nearctic and is negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, across the Neotropics mammals are largest in the tropical and subtropical lowlands and smaller in the Andes, generating a positive correlation with temperature. Finally, body size and temperature are nonlinearly related in both regions, and split-line linear regression found temperature thresholds marking clear shifts in these relationships (Nearctic 10.9 °C; Neotropics 12.6 °C). The increase in body sizes with decreasing temperature is strongest in the northern Nearctic, whereas a decrease in body size in mountains dominates the body size gradients in the warmer parts of both regions. Main conclusions: We confirm previous work finding strong broad-scale Bergmann trends in cold macroclimates but not in warmer areas. For the latter regions (i.e. the southern Nearctic and the Neotropics), our analyses also suggest that both local and broad-scale patterns of mammal body size variation are influenced in part by the strong mesoscale climatic gradients existing in mountainous areas. A likely explanation is that reduced habitat sizes in mountains limit the presence of larger-sized mammals.

Osmotic pressure and aggregate shape in BSA/poly (ethylene glycol)-lipid/Dextran solutions

In this work we study the colloidal osmotic pressure (COP) and aggregate shape in phosphate saline buffer solutions (PH 7.4) containing bovine serum albumin (BSA), poly(ethylene glycol) lipid (PEG(2000)-PE) and Dextran (Dx). Dx was added to the BSA/PEG(2000)-PE system in order to increase the COP of the solution to levels comparable to the COP of healthy adults, with the aim of using the solution as a blood COP regulator. Dynamic light scattering and small angle X-ray scattering results shown the formation of BSA/PEG(2000)-PE/Dx aggregates in the solution. Osmometry results shown that the addition of Dx to the BSA/PE2000-PE system could successfully increase the COP, through the formation of BSA/PEG(2000)-PE/Dx aggregates. The BSA/PEG(2000)-PE/Dx solutions attained COP= 15 mm Hg, representing 60% of COP measured for healthy adults. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of ochres from Clearwell Caves: the role of particle size in determining colour

Three ochre samples (A (orange-red in colour), B (red) and C (purple)) from Clearwell Caves, (Gloucestershire, UK) have been examined using an integrated analytical methodology based on the techniques of IR and diffuse reflectance UV-visible-NIR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, elemental analysis by ICP-AES and particle size analysis. It is shown that the chromophore in each case is haematite. The differences in colour may be accounted for by (i) different mineralogical and chemical composition in the case of the orange ochre, where hi,,her levels of dolomite and copper are seen and (ii) an unusual particle size distribution in the case of the purple ochre. When the purple ochre was ground to give the same particle size distribution as the red ochre then the colours of the two samples became indistinguishable. An analysis has now been completed of a range of ochre samples with colours from yellow to purple from the important site of Clearwell Caves. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.