989 resultados para Age, 14C calibrated, CALIB 6.0 (Stuiver et al., 2013)


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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A combinatorial protocol (CP) is introduced here to interface it with the multiple linear regression (MLR) for variable selection. The efficiency of CP-MLR is primarily based on the restriction of entry of correlated variables to the model development stage. It has been used for the analysis of Selwood et al data set [16], and the obtained models are compared with those reported from GFA [8] and MUSEUM [9] approaches. For this data set CP-MLR could identify three highly independent models (27, 28 and 31) with Q2 value in the range of 0.632-0.518. Also, these models are divergent and unique. Even though, the present study does not share any models with GFA [8], and MUSEUM [9] results, there are several descriptors common to all these studies, including the present one. Also a simulation is carried out on the same data set to explain the model formation in CP-MLR. The results demonstrate that the proposed method should be able to offer solutions to data sets with 50 to 60 descriptors in reasonable time frame. By carefully selecting the inter-parameter correlation cutoff values in CP-MLR one can identify divergent models and handle data sets larger than the present one without involving excessive computer time.

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A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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The Martian surface is covered by a fine-layer of oxidized dust responsible for its red color in the visible spectral range (Bibring et al., 2006; Morris et al., 2006). In the near infrared, the strongest spectral feature is located between 2.6 and 3.6 mu m and is ubiquitously observed on the planet (Jouglet et al., 2007; Milliken et al., 2007). Although this absorption has been studied for many decades, its exact attribution and its geological and climatic implications remain debated. We present new lines of evidence from laboratory experiments, orbital and landed missions data, and characterization of the unique Martian meteorite NWA 7533, all converging toward the prominent role of hydroxylated ferric minerals. Martian breccias (so-called "Black Beauty" meteorite NWA7034 and its paired stones NWA7533 and NWA 7455) are unique pieces of the Martian surface that display abundant evidence of aqueous alteration that occurred on their parent planet (Agee et al., 2013). These dark stones are also unique in the fact that they arose from a near surface level in the Noachian southern hemisphere (Humayun et al., 2013). We used IR spectroscopy, Fe-XANES and petrography to identify the mineral hosts of hydrogen in NWA 7533 and compare them with observations of the Martian surface and results of laboratory experiments. The spectrum of NWA 7533 does not show mafic mineral absorptions, making its definite identification difficult through NIR remote sensing mapping. However, its spectra are virtually consistent with a large fraction of the Martian highlands. Abundant NWA 7034/7533 (and paired samples) lithologies might abound on Mars and might play a role in the dust production mechanism. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Below oxygen isotope stage 16, the orbitally derived time-scale developed by Shackleton et al. (1990) from ODP site 677 in the equatorial Pacific differs significantly from previous ones (e.g. Kominz and Pisias, 1979 doi:10.1126/science.204.4389.171; Morley and Hays, 1981 doi:10.1016/0012-821X(81)90034-0, Imbrie et al. 1984), yielding estimated ages for the last Earth magnetic reversals that are 5-7% older than the K/Ar values (Mankinen and Dalrymple, 1979 doi:10.1029/JB084iB02p00615; Berggren et al., 1985; Harland and Armstrong, 1989) but are in good agreement with recent Ar/Ar dating (Baksi et al., 1991; 1992 doi:10.1126/science.256.5055.356; Spell and McDougall, 1992 doi:10.1029/92GL01125). These results suggest that in the lower Brunhes and upper Matuyama chronozones most deep-sea climatic records retrieved so far apparently missed or misinterpreted several oscillations predicted by the astronomical theory of climate. To test this hypothesis, we studied a high-resolution oxygen isotope record from giant piston core MD900963 (Maldives area, tropical Indian Ocean) in which precession-related oscillations in delta18O are particularly well expressed, owing to the superimposition of a local salinity signal on the global ice volume signal (Rostek et al., 1993 doi:10.1038/364319a0). Three additional precession-related cycles are observed in oxygen isotope stages 17 and 18 of core MD900963, compared to the SPECMAP composite curves (Imbrie et al., 1984; Prell et al., 1986 doi:10.1029/PA001i002p00137), and stage 21 clearly presents three precession oscillations, as predicted by Shackleton et al. (1990). The precession peaks found in the delta18O record from core MD900963 are in excellent agreement with climatic oscillations predicted by the astronomical theory of climate. Our delta18O record therefore permits the development of an accurate astronomical time-scale. Based on our age model, the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal is dated at 775 +/- 10 ka, in good agreement with the age estimate of 780 ka obtained by Shackleton et al. (1990) and recent radiochronological Ar/Ar datings on lavas (Baksi et al., 1991; 1992; Spell and McDougall, 1992). We developed a new low-latitude, Upper Pleistocene delta18O reference record by stacking and tuning the delta18O records from core MD900963 and site 677 to orbital forcing functions.

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This study provides a theoretical assessment of the potential bias due to differential lateral transport on multi-proxy studies based on a range of marine microfossils. Microfossils preserved in marine sediments are at the centre of numerous proxies for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The precision of proxies is based on the assumption that they accurately represent the overlying watercolumn properties and faunas. Here we assess the possibility of a syn-depositional bias in sediment assemblages caused by horizontal drift in the water column, due to differential settling velocities of sedimenting particles based on their shape, size and density, and due to differences in current velocities. Specifically we calculate the post-mortem lateral transport undergone by planktic foraminifera and a range of other biological proxy carriers (diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets transporting coccolithophores) in several regions with high current velocities. We find that lateral transport of different planktic foraminiferal species is minimal due to high settling velocities. No significant shape- or size-dependent sorting occurs before reaching the sediment, making planktic foraminiferal ideal proxy carriers. In contrast, diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets can be transported up to 500km in some areas. For example in the Agulhas current, transport can lead to differences of up to 2°C in temperature reconstructions between different proxies in response to settling velocities. Therefore, sediment samples are likely to contain different proportions of local and imported particles, decreasing the precision of proxies based on these groups and the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction.