Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation

Sequential techniques can enhance the efficiency of the approximate Bayesian computation algorithm, as in Sisson et al.'s (2007) partial rejection control version. While this method is based upon the theoretical works of Del Moral et al. (2006), the application to approximate Bayesian computation results in a bias in the approximation to the posterior. An alternative version based on genuine importance sampling arguments bypasses this difficulty, in connection with the population Monte Carlo method of Cappe et al. (2004), and it includes an automatic scaling of the forward kernel. When applied to a population genetics example, it compares favourably with two other versions of the approximate algorithm.

PopABC: a program to infer historical demographic parameters

PopABC is a computer package for inferring the pattern of demographic divergence of closely related populations and species. The software performs coalescent simulation in the framework of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). PopABC can also be used to perform Bayesian model choice to discriminate between different demographic scenarios. The program can be used either for research or for education and teaching purposes.

Genotypic sex determination enabled adaptive radiations of extinct marine reptiles

Adaptive radiations often follow the evolution of key traits, such as the origin of the amniotic egg and the subsequent radiation of terrestrial vertebrates. The mechanism by which a species determines the sex of its offspring has been linked to critical ecological and life-history traits(1-3) but not to major adaptive radiations, in part because sex-determining mechanisms do not fossilize. Here we establish a previously unknown coevolutionary relationship in 94 amniote species between sex-determining mechanism and whether a species bears live young or lays eggs. We use that relationship to predict the sex-determining mechanism in three independent lineages of extinct Mesozoic marine reptiles (mosasaurs, sauropterygians and ichthyosaurs), each of which is known from fossils to have evolved live birth(4-7). Our results indicate that each lineage evolved genotypic sex determination before acquiring live birth. This enabled their pelagic radiations, where the relatively stable temperatures of the open ocean constrain temperature-dependent sex determination in amniote species. Freed from the need to move and nest on land(4,5,8), extreme physical adaptations to a pelagic lifestyle evolved in each group, such as the fluked tails, dorsal fins and wing-shaped limbs of ichthyosaurs. With the inclusion of ichthyosaurs, mosasaurs and sauropterygians, genotypic sex determination is present in all known fully pelagic amniote groups (sea snakes, sirenians and cetaceans), suggesting that this mode of sex determination and the subsequent evolution of live birth are key traits required for marine adaptive radiations in amniote lineages.

Identifying adaptive genetic divergence among populations from genome scans

The identification of signatures of natural selection in genomic surveys has become an area of intense research, stimulated by the increasing ease with which genetic markers can be typed. Loci identified as subject to selection may be functionally important, and hence (weak) candidates for involvement in disease causation. They can also be useful in determining the adaptive differentiation of populations, and exploring hypotheses about speciation. Adaptive differentiation has traditionally been identified from differences in allele frequencies among different populations, summarised by an estimate of F-ST. Low outliers relative to an appropriate neutral population-genetics model indicate loci subject to balancing selection, whereas high outliers suggest adaptive (directional) selection. However, the problem of identifying statistically significant departures from neutrality is complicated by confounding effects on the distribution of F-ST estimates, and current methods have not yet been tested in large-scale simulation experiments. Here, we simulate data from a structured population at many unlinked, diallelic loci that are predominantly neutral but with some loci subject to adaptive or balancing selection. We develop a hierarchical-Bayesian method, implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and assess its performance in distinguishing the loci simulated under selection from the neutral loci. We also compare this performance with that of a frequentist method, based on moment-based estimates of F-ST. We find that both methods can identify loci subject to adaptive selection when the selection coefficient is at least five times the migration rate. Neither method could reliably distinguish loci under balancing selection in our simulations, even when the selection coefficient is twenty times the migration rate.

Designs for an adaptive tuned vibration absorber with variable shape stiffness element

An adaptive tuned vibration absorber (ATVA) with a smart variable stiffness element is capable of retuning itself in response to a time-varying excitation frequency., enabling effective vibration control over a range of frequencies. This paper discusses novel methods of achieving variable stiffness in an ATVA by changing shape, as inspired by biological paradigms. It is shown that considerable variation in the tuned frequency can be achieved by actuating a shape change, provided that this is within the limits of the actuator. A feasible design for such an ATVA is one in which the device offers low resistance to the required shape change actuation while not being restricted to low values of the effective stiffness of the vibration absorber. Three such original designs are identified: (i) A pinned-pinned arch beam with fixed profile of slight curvature and variable preload through an adjustable natural curvature; (ii) a vibration absorber with a stiffness element formed from parallel curved beams of adjustable curvature vibrating longitudinally; (iii) a vibration absorber with a variable geometry linkage as stiffness element. The experimental results from demonstrators based on two of these designs show good correlation with the theory.

Investigation of air quality, comfort parameters and effectiveness for two floor-level air supply systems in classrooms

The method of distributing the outdoor air in classrooms has a major impact on indoor air quality and thermal comfort of pupils. In a previous study, ([11] Karimipanah T, Sandberg M, Awbi HB. A comparative study of different air distribution systems in a classroom. In: Proceedings of Roomvent 2000, vol. II, Reading, UK, 2000. p. 1013-18; [13] Karimipanah T, Sandberg M, Awbi HB, Blomqvist C. Effectiveness of confluent jets ventilation system for classrooms. In: Idoor Air 2005, Beijing, China, 2005 (to be presented).) presented results for four and two types of air distribution systems tested in a purpose built classroom with simulated occupancy as well as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling. In this paper, the same experimental setup has been used to investigate the indoor environment in the classroom using confluent jet ventilation, see also ([12]Cho YJ, Awbi HB, Karimipanah T. The characteristics of wall confluent jets for ventilated enclosures. In: Proceedings of Roomvent 2004, Coimbra, Portugal, 2004.) Measurements of air speed, air temperature and tracer gas concentrations have been carried out for different thermal conditions. In addition, 56 cases of CFD simulations have been carried to provide additional information on the indoor air quality and comfort conditions throughout the classroom, such as ventilation effectiveness, air exchange effectiveness, effect of flow rate, effect of radiation, effect of supply temperature, etc., and these are compared with measured data.

Developing a method to characterize indoor environmental parameters in naturally ventilated classrooms

Until recently, there has been little investigation concerning the poor indoor air quality (IAQ) in classrooms. Despite the evidence that the educational building systems in many of the UK institutions have significant defects that may degrade IAQ, systematic assessments of IAQ measurements has been rarely undertaken. When undertaking IAQ measurement, there is a difficult task of representing and characterizing the environment parameters. Although technologies exist to measure these parameters, direct measurements especially in a naturally ventilated spaces are often difficult. This paper presents a methodology for developing a method to characterize indoor environment flow parameters as well as the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Thus, CO2 concentration level can be influenced by the differences in the selection of sampling points and heights. However, because this research focuses on natural ventilation in classrooms, air exchange is provided mainly by air infiltration. It is hoped that the methodology developed and evaluated in this research can effectively simplify the process of estimating the parameters for a systematic assessment of IAQ measurements in a naturally ventilated classrooms.

Truth in complex adaptive systems models should be based on truth by constructive verification

It is argued that the truth status of emergent properties of complex adaptive systems models should be based on an epistemology of proof by constructive verification and therefore on the ontological axioms of a non-realist logical system such as constructivism or intuitionism. ‘Emergent’ properties of complex adaptive systems (CAS) models create particular epistemological and ontological challenges. These challenges bear directly on current debates in the philosophy of mathematics and in theoretical computer science. CAS research, with its emphasis on computer simulation, is heavily reliant on models which explore the entailments of Formal Axiomatic Systems (FAS). The incompleteness results of Gödel, the incomputability results of Turing, and the Algorithmic Information Theory results of Chaitin, undermine a realist (platonic) truth model of emergent properties. These same findings support the hegemony of epistemology over ontology and point to alternative truth models such as intuitionism, constructivism and quasi-empiricism.

A theoretical adaptive model of thermal comfort – Adaptive Predicted Mean Vote (aPMV)

This paper presents in detail a theoretical adaptive model of thermal comfort based on the “Black Box” theory, taking into account factors such as culture, climate, social, psychological and behavioural adaptations, which have an impact on the senses used to detect thermal comfort. The model is called the Adaptive Predicted Mean Vote (aPMV) model. The aPMV model explains, by applying the cybernetics concept, the phenomena that the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) is greater than the Actual Mean Vote (AMV) in free-running buildings, which has been revealed by many researchers in field studies. An Adaptive coefficient (λ) representing the adaptive factors that affect the sense of thermal comfort has been proposed. The empirical coefficients in warm and cool conditions for the Chongqing area in China have been derived by applying the least square method to the monitored onsite environmental data and the thermal comfort survey results.