999 resultados para ARIMA models


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The human connectome represents a network map of the brain's wiring diagram and the pattern into which its connections are organized is thought to play an important role in cognitive function. The generative rules that shape the topology of the human connectome remain incompletely understood. Earlier work in model organisms has suggested that wiring rules based on geometric relationships (distance) can account for many but likely not all topological features. Here we systematically explore a family of generative models of the human connectome that yield synthetic networks designed according to different wiring rules combining geometric and a broad range of topological factors. We find that a combination of geometric constraints with a homophilic attachment mechanism can create synthetic networks that closely match many topological characteristics of individual human connectomes, including features that were not included in the optimization of the generative model itself. We use these models to investigate a lifespan dataset and show that, with age, the model parameters undergo progressive changes, suggesting a rebalancing of the generative factors underlying the connectome across the lifespan.

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Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. Four alternative models, each user-friendly and easily accessible to practitioners and decision makers, are performed using empirical data of 90 primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Results show that the majority of alternative models deliver divergent results. From a political and a managerial standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially ineffective decisions. As no consensus emerges on the best model to use, practitioners and decision makers may be tempted to select the model that is right for them, in other words, the model that best reflects their own preferences. Further studies should investigate how an appropriate multi-criteria decision analysis method could help decision makers to select the right model.

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The use of private funding and management is enjoying an increasing trend in airports. The literature has not paid enough attention to the mixed management models in this industry, although many European airports take the form of mixed public-private companies, where ownership is shared between public and private sectors. We examine the determinants of the degree of private participation in the European airport sector. Drawing on a sample of the 100 largest European airports, we estimate a multivariate equation in order to determine the role of airport characteristics, fiscal variables, and political factors on the extent of private involvement. Our results confirm the alignment between public and private interests in partially privatized airports. Fiscal constraints and market attractiveness promote private participation. Integrated governance models and the share of network carriers prevent the presence of private ownership, while the degree of private participation appears to be pragmatic rather than ideological.

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The goal of the study was to find a proper frame to understand business models and study business models of the chosen companies in packaging machinery manufacturing. Good practices and tips are searched from business models which have helped companies to success. Packaging industry’s future is also examined in front of different kinds of changes and the influence which they have on machinery manufacturer’s business models. In the theory part business models’ history and the best frame suitable for this study are presented. The chosen case companies have been discussed according to the frame, and they have been compared to each other to point out the differences. The good practices noticed in companies and according to information from other sources, new business model has been constructed including things that should be noticed while constructing a new business model. The information sources of this study where interviews, annual reports, companies presentations and web pages. The type of study was an interpretative case study.

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1. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are often used in landscape ecology to retrieve elevation or first derivative terrain attributes such as slope or aspect in the context of species distribution modelling. However, DEM-derived variables are scale-dependent and, given the increasing availability of very high-resolution (VHR) DEMs, their ecological relevancemust be assessed for different spatial resolutions. 2. In a study area located in the Swiss Western Alps, we computed VHR DEMs-derived variables related to morphometry, hydrology and solar radiation. Based on an original spatial resolution of 0.5 m, we generated DEM-derived variables at 1, 2 and 4 mspatial resolutions, applying a Gaussian Pyramid. Their associations with local climatic factors, measured by sensors (direct and ambient air temperature, air humidity and soil moisture) as well as ecological indicators derived fromspecies composition, were assessed with multivariate generalized linearmodels (GLM) andmixed models (GLMM). 3. Specific VHR DEM-derived variables showed significant associations with climatic factors. In addition to slope, aspect and curvature, the underused wetness and ruggedness indices modelledmeasured ambient humidity and soilmoisture, respectively. Remarkably, spatial resolution of VHR DEM-derived variables had a significant influence on models' strength, with coefficients of determination decreasing with coarser resolutions or showing a local optimumwith a 2 mresolution, depending on the variable considered. 4. These results support the relevance of using multi-scale DEM variables to provide surrogates for important climatic variables such as humidity, moisture and temperature, offering suitable alternatives to direct measurements for evolutionary ecology studies at a local scale.

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Microquasars are promising candidates to emit high-energy gamma-rays. Moreover, statistical studies show that variable EGRET sources at low galactic latitudes could be associated with the inner spiral arms. The variable nature and the location in the Galaxy of the high-mass microquasars, concentrated in the galactic plane and within 55 degrees from the galactic center, give to these objects the status of likely counterparts of the variable low-latitude EGRET sources. We consider in this work the two most variable EGRET sources at low-latitudes: 3EG J1828+0142 and 3EG J1735-1500, proposing a microquasar model to explain the EGRET data in consistency with the observations at lower energies (from radio frequencies to soft gamma-rays) within the EGRET error box.

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The use of private funding and management enjoys an increasing trend in airports. The literature has not paid enough attention to the mixed management models in this industry, although many European airports take the form of mixed firms or Institutional PPP, where ownership is shared between public and private sectors. We examine the determinants of the degree of private participation in the European airport sector. Drawing on a sample of the 100 largest European airports we estimate a multivariate equation in order to determine the role of airport characteristics, fiscal variables and political factors on the extent of private involvement. Our results confirm the alignment between public and private interests in PPPs. Fiscal constraints and market attractiveness promote private participation. Integrated governance models and the share of network carriers prevent the presence of private ownership, while the degree of private participation appears to be pragmatic rather than ideological.

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In vivo (1)H MR spectroscopy allows the non invasive characterization of brain metabolites and it has been used for studying brain metabolic changes in a wide range of neurodegenerative diseases. The prion diseases form a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases, also described as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. The mechanism by which prions elicit brain damage remains unclear and therefore different transgenic mouse models of prion disease were created. We performed an in vivo longitudinal (1)H MR spectroscopy study at 14.1 T with the aim to measure the neurochemical profile of Prnp -/- and PrPΔ32-121 mice in the hippocampus and cerebellum. Using high-field MR spectroscopy we were able to analyze in details the in vivo brain metabolites in Prnp -/- and PrPΔ32-121 mice. An increase of myo-inositol, glutamate and lactate concentrations with a decrease of N-acetylaspartate concentrations were observed providing additional information to the previous measurements.

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The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

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Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

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Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

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The present study was performed in an attempt to develop an in vitro integrated testing strategy (ITS) to evaluate drug-induced neurotoxicity. A number of endpoints were analyzed using two complementary brain cell culture models and an in vitro blood-brain barrier (BBB) model after single and repeated exposure treatments with selected drugs that covered the major biological, pharmacological and neuro-toxicological responses. Furthermore, four drugs (diazepam, cyclosporine A, chlorpromazine and amiodarone) were tested more in depth as representatives of different classes of neurotoxicants, inducing toxicity through different pathways of toxicity. The developed in vitro BBB model allowed detection of toxic effects at the level of BBB and evaluation of drug transport through the barrier for predicting free brain concentrations of the studied drugs. The measurement of neuronal electrical activity was found to be a sensitive tool to predict the neuroactivity and neurotoxicity of drugs after acute exposure. The histotypic 3D re-aggregating brain cell cultures, containing all brain cell types, were found to be well suited for OMICs analyses after both acute and long term treatment. The obtained data suggest that an in vitro ITS based on the information obtained from BBB studies and combined with metabolomics, proteomics and neuronal electrical activity measurements performed in stable in vitro neuronal cell culture systems, has high potential to improve current in vitro drug-induced neurotoxicity evaluation.