Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

ALES: a multi-mission adaptive sub-waveform retracker for coastal and open ocean altimetry

Satellite altimetry has revolutionized our understanding of ocean dynamics thanks to frequent sampling and global coverage. Nevertheless, coastal data have been flagged as unreliable due to land and calm water interference in the altimeter and radiometer footprint and uncertainty in the modelling of high-frequency tidal and atmospheric forcing. Our study addresses the first issue, i.e. altimeter footprint contamination, via retracking, presenting ALES, the Adaptive Leading Edge Subwaveform retracker. ALES is potentially applicable to all the pulse-limited altimetry missions and its aim is to retrack both open ocean and coastal data with the same accuracy using just one algorithm. ALES selects part of each returned echo and models it with a classic ”open ocean” Brown functional form, by means of least square estimation whose convergence is found through the Nelder-Mead nonlinear optimization technique. By avoiding echoes from bright targets along the trailing edge, it is capable of retrieving more coastal waveforms than the standard processing. By adapting the width of the estimation window according to the significant wave height, it aims at maintaining the accuracy of the standard processing in both the open ocean and the coastal strip. This innovative retracker is validated against tide gauges in the Adriatic Sea and in the Greater Agulhas System for three different missions: Envisat, Jason-1 and Jason-2. Considerations of noise and biases provide a further verification of the strategy. The results show that ALES is able to provide more reliable 20-Hz data for all three missions in areas where even 1-Hz averages are flagged as unreliable in standard products. Application of the ALES retracker led to roughly a half of the analysed tracks showing a marked improvement in correlation with the tide gauge records, with the rms difference being reduced by a factor of 1.5 for Jason-1 and Jason-2 and over 4 for Envisat in the Adriatic Sea (at the closest point to the tide gauge).