A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

The new Brazilian cinema

In the second half of the 1990s, Brazil experienced a cinematic boom. Many of the new films were received enthusiastically by audiences and critics and released worldwide. This passionately argued and illuminating book provides the first comprehensive critical account of what is known as the 'Renaissance of Brazilian cinema' and demonstrates just how thought-provoking and inspiring Brazilian cinema has become. Contributors: José Carlos Avellar - Ivana Bentes - Stephanie Dennison - Verônica Ferreira Dias - Carlos Diegues - Amir Labaki - Maria Esther Maciel - José Álvaro Moisés - Laura Mulvey - Lúcia Nagib - Luiz Zanin Oricchio - Fernão Pessoa Ramos - Lisa Shaw - Robert Stam - João Luiz Vieira - Ismail Xavier.

A utopia no Cinema Brasileiro: matrizes, nostalgia, distopias

This book studies the ressurgence of the utopian gesture in Brazilian Cinema from the mid-1990s onwards, as well as its variations and negations. The analysis identifies trajectories of rise and fall, which reflect oscillations in the political scenario, and includes a retrospective look at utopian traditions of the Brazilian cinematic past, in turn derived from the nation's foundational myths. At the same time, it considers the ways in which recent Brazilian film production transcends Cinema Novo's national project to interacts with modern, postmodern and commercial cinemas of the world, thus benefiting from and contributing to a new transnational cinematic aesthetics.

Back to the margins in search of the core: "Foreign Land"'s geography of exclusion

The crisis of the national project in the early 1990s, caused by a short-lived but disastrous government, led Brazilian art cinema, for the first time, to look at itself as periphery and re-approach the old colonial center, Portugal. Terra estrangeira/Foreign Land (Walter Salles & Daniela Thomas, Brazil/Portugal, 1995), a film about Brazilian exiles in Portugal, is the best illustration of this perspective shift which provides a new sense of Brazil’s scale and position within a global context. Shot mainly on location in São Paulo, Lisbon and Cape Verde, it promotes the encounter of Lusophone peoples who find a common ground in their marginal situation. Rather than as a former empire, Portugal is defined by its situation at the edge of Europe and by beliefs such as Sebastianism, whose origins go back to the time when the country was dominated by Spain. As a result, notions of “core” or “center” are devolved to the realm of myth. The film’s carefully crafted dialogue combines Brazilian, Portuguese and Creole linguistic peculiarities into a common dialect of exclusion, while language puns trigger visual rhymes which refer back to the Cinema Novo (the Brazilian New Wave) repertoire and restage the imaginary of the discovery turned into unfulfilled utopia. The main characters also acquire historical resonances, as they are depicted as descendants of Iberian conquistadors turned into smugglers of precious stones in the present. Their activities define a circuit of international exchange which resonates with that of globalized cinema, a realm in which Foreign Land, made up of citations and homage to other cinemas, tries to retrieve a sense of belonging.

The zero, the centre and the empty utopia: from Rossellini to Walter Salles

This article examines utopian gestures and inaugural desires in two films which became symbolic of the Brazilian Film Revival in the late 1990s: Central Station (1998) and Midnight (1999). Both evolve around the idea of an overcrowded or empty centre in a country trapped between past and future, in which the motif of the zero stands for both the announcement and the negation of utopia. The analysis draws parallels between them and new wave films which also elaborate on the idea of the zero, with examples picked from Italian neo-realism, the Brazilian Cinema Novo and the New German Cinema. In Central Station, the ‘point zero’, or the core of the homeland, is retrieved in the archaic backlands, where political issues are resolved in the private sphere and the social drama turns into family melodrama. Midnight, in its turn, recycles Glauber Rocha’s utopian prophecies in the new millennium’s hour zero, when the earthly paradise represented by the sea is re-encountered by the middle-class character, but not by the poor migrant. In both cases, public injustice is compensated by the heroes’ personal achievements, but those do not refer to the real nation, its history or society. Their utopian breadth, based on nostalgia, citation and genre techniques, is of a virtual kind, attune to cinema only.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

Social development as knowledge building: research as a sphere of policy influence

The value of using social development knowledge as a tool for building development policy was promoted by the British Department for International Development in the late 1990s. This article takes the case of a capacity building initiative that sought to build social development knowledge as a resource for policy formulation in 'southern' countries. Situating knowledge as a development resource presents difficulties for intervention processes that have historically developed to provide access to economic and social assets. This article highlights some of the issues involved in trying to build social development capacity and questions the suitability of this style of intervention. Inappropriate and short-term support for knowledge capacity building carries the danger that the traditional separation between the academic and practice spheres will be reinforced, making the process of democratising knowledge more difficult.

Além da diferença: a mulher no Cinema da Retomada

This paper analyses the female participation in the Brazilian Film Revival of the 1990s beyond differences of sex, race, class, age and ethnicity. Its main contention is that the most decisive contribution brought about by the rise of women in recent Brazilian cinema has been the spread of team work and shared authorship, as opposed to a mere aspiration to the auteur pantheon, as determined by a notoriously male-oriented tradition.

Back to the margins in search of the core: foreign land's geography of exclusion

The crisis of the national project in the early 1990s, caused by a short-lived but disastrous government, led Brazilian art cinema, for the first time, to look at itself as periphery and re-approach the old colonial centre, Portugal. Terra estrangeira/Foreign Land (Walter Salles & Daniela Thomas, Brazil/Portugal, 1995), a film about Brazilian exiles in Portugal, is the best illustration of this perspective shift aimed at providing a new sense of Brazil’s scale and position within a global context. Shot mainly on location in São Paulo, Lisbon and Cape Verde, it promotes the encounter of Lusophone peoples who find a common ground in their marginal situation. Even Portugal is defined by its location at the edge of Europe and by beliefs such as Sebastianism, whose origins go back to the time when the country was dominated by Spain. As a result, notions of ‘core’ or ‘centre’ are devolved to the realm of myth. The film’s carefully crafted dialogues combine Brazilian, Portuguese and Creole linguistic peculiarities into a common dialect of exclusion, while language puns trigger visual rhymes which refer back to the Cinema Novo (the Brazilian New Wave) repertoire and restage the imaginary of the discovery turned into unfulfilled utopia. The main characters also acquire historical resonances, as they are depicted as descendants of Iberian conquistadors turned into smugglers of precious stones in the present. Their activities define a circuit of international exchange which resonates with that of globalized cinema, a realm in which Foreign Land, made up of citations and homage to other cinemas, tries to retrieve a sense of belonging.

Demonstrating the importance of criteria and sub-criteria in building assessment methods

Building assessment methods have become a popular research field since the early 1990s. An international tool which allows the assessment of buildings in all regions, taking into account differences in climates, topographies and cultures does not yet exist. This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of criteria and sub-criteria in developing a new potential building assessment method for Saudi Arabia. Recently, the awareness of sustainability has been increasing in developing countries due to high energy consumption, pollution and high carbon foot print. There is no debate that assessment criteria have an important role to identify the tool’s orientation. However, various aspects influence the criteria and sub-criteria of assessment tools such as environment, economic, social and cultural to mention but a few. The author provides an investigation on the most popular and globally used schemes: BREEAM, LEED, Green Star, CASBEE and Estidama in order to identify the effectiveness of the different aspects of the assessment criteria and the impacts of these criteria on the assessment results; that will provide a solid foundation to develop an effective sustainable assessment method for buildings in Saudi Arabia. Initial results of the investigation suggest that each country needs to develop its own assessment method in order to achieve desired results, while focusing upon the indigenous environmental, economic, social and cultural conditions. Keywords: Assessment methods, BREEAM, LEED, Green Star, CASBEE, Estidama, sustainability, sustainable buildings, Environment, Saudi Arabia.

Evaluation of a photosynthesis-based biogenic isoprene emission scheme in JULES and simulation of isoprene emissions under present-day climate conditions

We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation – atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95 % level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95 % confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr−1 during the 1990s, 78 % of which from forested areas.

A tradition with breaks

An introduction to the history of stencil typefaces, followed by a survey of recent stencil typefaces (1990s to the present day) arranged in eight thematic sections.

Femininity, feminism and the terrorist

This chapter aims to discuss the relationship between femininity and representations of women involved in violence, focussing on visual representations. Miranda Alison has made the point that the repeated necessity to qualify the term 'combatant' with the descriptor 'female' draws attention to how women soldiers, female freedom fighters, female suicide bombers and female terrorists are exceptional figures. That the female combatant or the female terrorist is an aberration or a deviation from a masculine norm is undermined by the lengthy history of women as warriors, fighters, and terrorists. In that sense it is not so much that fighting women are rare but that there is amnesia within cultural memories concerning the woman fighter. However, in representations of conflict, the dominant image associated with femininity is passive; that is as the defenceless and the defended, or as the allegory of peace. Moreover, representations of men in wars as defeated or wounded means feminising such figures. Miriam Cooke, in her Women and the War Story, 1996, points out how a mythic war story provides men with political roles, in the politikon or public arena, whereas women are domesticated in the space of the oikon. In the mythic war story women may function as Mater Dolorosa, Patriotic Mother or Spartan Mother. It follows then that there are conditions in which it is permissible to represent women fighting on behalf of their children or in defence of the home, and in the absence of men. These images are also found in wider culture: Sarah Connor in Terminator or Ripley in Alien, for example. Images of the female terrorist raise new issues but I want to argue that it is also the case that discussing femininity and the terrorist must involve relating such imagery to representations of the female warrior over a longer timespan. Some questions have shifted since the late twentieth century. Dating from the early 1990s, most Western nations increasingly incorporated women into combat roles within their armed forces. This paper will aim to unpick some of the intricate connections between the increasing presence of women in the armed forces, what relationship this has to emancipation and the participation of women in violence classed as terrorist.

Endocannabinoids, FOXO and the metabolic syndrome: redox, function and tipping point--the view from two systems

The endocannabinoid system (ECS) was only 'discovered' in the 1990s. Since then, many new ligands have been identified, as well as many new intracellular targets--ranging from the PPARs, to mitochondria, to lipid rafts. It was thought that blocking the CB-1 receptor might reverse obesity and the metabolic syndrome. This was based on the idea that the ECS was dysfunctional in these conditions. This has met with limited success. The reason may be that the ECS is a homeostatic system, which integrates energy seeking and storage behaviour with resistance to oxidative stress. It could be viewed as having thrifty actions. Thriftiness is an innate property of life, which is programmed to a set point by both environment and genetics, resulting in an epigenotype perfectly adapted to its environment. This thrifty set point can be modulated by hormetic stimuli, such as exercise, cold and plant micronutrients. We have proposed that the physiological and protective insulin resistance that underlies thriftiness encapsulates something called 'redox thriftiness', whereby insulin resistance is determined by the ability to resist oxidative stress. Modern man has removed most hormetic stimuli and replaced them with a calorific sedentary lifestyle, leading to increased risk of metabolic inflexibility. We suggest that there is a tipping point where lipotoxicity in adipose and hepatic cells induces mild inflammation, which switches thrifty insulin resistance to inflammation-driven insulin resistance. To understand this, we propose that the metabolic syndrome could be seen from the viewpoint of the ECS, the mitochondrion and the FOXO group of transcription factors. FOXO has many thrifty actions, including increasing insulin resistance and appetite, suppressing oxidative stress and shifting the organism towards using fatty acids. In concert with factors such as PGC-1, they also modify mitochondrial function and biogenesis. Hence, the ECS and FOXO may interact at many points; one of which may be via intracellular redox signalling. As cannabinoids have been shown to modulate reactive oxygen species production, it is possible that they can upregulate anti-oxidant defences. This suggests they may have an 'endohormetic' signalling function. The tipping point into the metabolic syndrome may be the result of a chronic lack of hormetic stimuli (in particular, physical activity), and thus, stimulus for PGC-1, with a resultant reduction in mitochondrial function and a reduced lipid capacitance. This, in the context of a positive calorie environment, will result in increased visceral adipose tissue volume, abnormal ectopic fat content and systemic inflammation. This would worsen the inflammatory-driven pathological insulin resistance and inability to deal with lipids. The resultant oxidative stress may therefore drive a compensatory anti-oxidative response epitomised by the ECS and FOXO. Thus, although blocking the ECS (e.g. via rimonabant) may induce temporary weight loss, it may compromise long-term stress resistance. Clues about how to modulate the system more safely are emerging from observations that some polyphenols, such as resveratrol and possibly, some phytocannabinoids, can modulate mitochondrial function and might improve resistance to a modern lifestyle.

Atlantic overturning in decline?

Global ocean circulation is an important factor in climate variability and change. In particular, changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in ancient climate events, as well as in recent climate anomalies such as the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. A series of moored current meters and temperature sensors deployed in the Atlantic at 26° N known as the RAPID-MOCHA array has been used to monitor the strength of meridional overturning since 2004. The data indicate a decline in this strength over the period 2004–20123. Here, using additional observations and climate model simulations we suggest that this measured decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but is part of a substantial reduction in meridional overturning occurring on a decadal timescale.