Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Links between pollen, atopy and the asthma epidemic

Pollen allergy has been found in 80–90% of childhood asthmatics and 40–50% of adult-onset asthmatics. Despite the high prevalence of atopy in asthmatics, a causal relationship between the allergic response and asthma has not been clearly established. Pollen grains are too large to penetrate the small airways where asthma occurs. Yet pollen cytoplasmic fragments are respirable and are likely correlated with the asthmatic response in allergic asthmatics. In this review, we outline the mechanism of pollen fragmentation and possible pathophysiology of pollen fragment-induced asthma. Pollen grains rupture within the male flowers and emit cytoplasmic debris when winds or other disturbances disperse the pollen. Peak levels of grass and birch pollen allergens in the atmosphere correlated with the occurrence of moist weather conditions during the flowering period. Thunderstorm asthma epidemics may be triggered by grass pollen rupture in the atmosphere and the entrainment of respirable-sized particles in the outflows of air masses at ground level. Pollen contains nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (reduced) oxidases and bioactive lipid mediators which likely contribute to the inflammatory response. Several studies have examined synergistic effects and enhanced immune response from interaction in the atmosphere, or from co-deposition in the airways, of pollen allergens, endogenous pro-inflammatory agents, and the particulate and gaseous fraction of combustion products. Pollen and fungal fragments also contain compounds that can suppress reactive oxidants and quench free radicals. It is important to know more about how these substances interact to potentially enhance, or even ameliorate, allergic asthma.

A robust solution to the stereo-vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping problem with steady and moving landmarks

The problem of visual simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is examined in this paper using recently developed ideas and algorithms from modern robust control and estimation theory. A nonlinear model for a stereo-vision-based sensor is derived that leads to nonlinear measurements of the landmark coordinates along with optical flow-based measurements of the relative robot-landmark velocity. Using a novel analytical measurement transformation, the nonlinear SLAM problem is converted into the linear domain and solved using a robust linear filter. Actually, the linear filter is guaranteed stable and the SLAM state estimation error is bounded within an ellipsoidal set. A mathematically rigorous stability proof is given that holds true even when the landmarks move in accordance with an unknown control input. No similar results are available for the commonly employed extended Kalman filter, which is known to exhibit divergence and inconsistency characteristics in practice. A number of illustrative examples are given using both simulated and real vision data that further validate the proposed method.

Stereotypes and self-perceptions of physical education pre-service teachers

Stereotypes and self-perceptions are important in understanding how people develop their self-knowledge and social identity, become members of groups, and view groups and their members. While we have some understanding of the stereotypical view of the physical education teacher, we currently have little knowledge of how physical education pre-service teachers (students studying a physical education degree) are stereotyped, and also if there is any relationship between these stereotypes and how physical education pre-service teachers perceive themselves. The purpose of this study was to examine the stereotypes and self-perceptions of physical education pre-service teachers. The aims were to describe how physical education pre-service teachers stereotype and perceive themselves, examine if there are differences in the stereotypes and self-perceptions between males and females, and to explore if there were relationships between what the physical education pre-service teachers believed stereotyped them and how they perceived themselves. Participants were 250 students (n=120 males, n=130 female) studying a 4-year Bachelor of Education (Physical Education) degree at a university who completed a questionnaire which contained 10 items about how they viewed physical education pre-service teachers (stereotypes), and 26 items on how they viewed male physical education pre-service teachers and female pre-service teachers (stereotypes) and 26 items on how they view themselves (self-perceptions). Factor analysis revealed 2 stereotype factors, which were labelled as Sociable (e.g., socialise, partying, drinking, loud and outgoing) and Health and Lifestyle (e.g., fit, playing sport and not smoking). The stereotype of the male physical education pre-service teacher, comprised two factors: physical, assertive and aggressive behaviour (e.g., aggressive, dominant, self-confident, and competitive) and physical and self-presentation factors (muscular, athletic, physically fit, physically coordinated, and attractive). The stereotype of female physical education pre-service teachers comprised three factors: physical appearance and ability (e.g., physically fit, athletic, able-bodied, attractive, thin, and physically coordinated), aggressive and assertive behavioural style (e.g., intimidating, unapproachable, and aggressive), and masculine behavioural style (e.g., aggressive, masculine, feminine, muscular and dominant). The self-perception of male physical education pre-service teachers comprised three factors: perceived appearance and ability (e.g., athletic, physical fit, thin, attractive, muscular and pleased with their body), aggressive and confident behaviour (e.g., intimidating, dominant, show off and aggressive) and independence and intellect (e.g., independent, ambitious, self confident and intelligent). The self-perception of female physical education pre-service teachers comprised three factors: strong willed behaviour (e.g., ambitious, and dominant), presentation and appearance (e.g., pleased with their body, attractive, thin and self confident), and aggressive and dominant behaviour (e.g., aggressive, intimidating, masculine and show off). There were significant relationships between the male physical and self-presentation stereotype factor stereotype and perceived appearance and ability self-perception factor and between the male physical, assertive and aggressive behaviour stereotype factor and the male aggressive and confident behaviours self-perception factor. For females, the aggressive and dominant behaviour stereotype was related to both the aggressive and assertive behavioural style self-perception factor and the masculine behavioural style self-perception factor. It is suggested that future studies investigate the stereotypes and self-perceptions of students in schools during the recruitment phase of socialisation, and the possible influence of the physical education teacher education programme, faculty leaders, and significant others on the physical education pre-service teachers’ self-perceptions, stereotypes and socialisation into physical education.

Chemiluminescence detection flow cells for flow injection analysis and high-performance liquid chromatography

We have examined a range of new and previously described flow cells for chemiluminescence detection. The reactions of acidic potassium permanganate with morphine and amoxicillin were used as model systems representing the many fast chemiluminescence reactions between oxidising agents and organic analytes, and the preliminary partial reduction of the reagent was exploited to further increase the rates of reaction. The comparison was then extended to high-performance liquid chromatography separations of α- and β-adrenergic agonists, with permanganate chemiluminescence detection. Flow cells constructed by machining novel channel designs into white polymer materials (sealed with transparent films or plates) have enabled improvements in mixing efficiency and overall transmission of light to the photodetector.

Change implementers’ resistance : considering power and resistance in IT implementation projects

Resistance is normally characterized as a set of behaviours located in and belonging to change recipients. Such behaviours are seen to thwart the legitimate aims of both change strategists and the change agents who implement systems and the associated organisational change on the strategists' behalf. However, results from our case study research indicate that resistance can be a property not only of change recipients’ behaviour, but also of change agents and change strategists. The resistance behaviours identified included the failure to follow a prescribed corporate method and template, a refusal to help or listen, a refusal to fix known problems, the display of an adversarial, confrontational, and/or condescending attitude, subversiveness, a poor work ethic, and a refusal to meet requests. This paper argues for a revised conceptualization of resistance as a behaviour that can be demonstrated by any IT project stakeholders, that cannot be divorced from considerations of power in the IT project context.

Reliability maps and probabilistic guarantee of task motion for robotic manipulators

There are many applications for which reliable and safe robots are desired. For example, assistant robots for disabled or elderly people and surgical robots are required to be safe and reliable to prevent human injury and task failure. However, different levels of safety and reliability are required for different tasks so that understanding the reliability of robots is paramount. Currently, it is possible to guarantee the completion of a task when the robot is fault tolerant and the task remains in the fault-tolerant workspace (FTW). The traditional definition of FTW does not consider different reliabilities for the robotic manipulator's different joints. The aim of this paper is to extend the concept of a FTW to address the reliability of different joints. Such an extension can offer a wider FTW while maintaining the required level of reliability. This is achieved by associating a probability with every part of the workspace to extend the FTW. As a result, reliable fault-tolerant workspaces (RFTWs) are introduced by using the novel concept of conditional reliability maps. Such a RFTW can be used to improve the performance of assistant robots while providing the confidence that the robot remains reliable for completion of its assigned tasks. © 2012 Copyright Taylor & Francis and The Robotics Society of Japan.

Nurses and personal attendants' diabetes knowledge : in regional public residential care

Aim: Identify staff knowledge about diabetes medicines and organisational factors that influence safe medicines use in two large Australian regional public RACs that comply with national accreditation standards.

Background: Diabetes management is complicated in residential aged care facilities (RAC). Managing medicines is complex, especially in older people. Little is known about diabetes-specific medicine knowledge of various care staff (registered nurses (RN), enrolled nurses (EN) and patient care attendants (PCA) working in RAC.

Methods: A triangulation of methods was used to collect the data: anonymous self-complete questionnaire (ADKnowl) staff interviews to clarify practice issues that could affect safe medicine use, and a case file audit to identify medicine-related data. Questionnaires were distributed to all RNs, ENs and PCAs in the two services via nursing management (N=540). The ADKnowl was supplemented with additional questions and vignettes derived from actual case notes in each RAC to assess translation of knowledge into practice. Only medicine related data are reported.

Results: Sixty-eight people returned completed questionnaires (12.5% response rate). Knowledge deficits were identified in administering oral hypoglycaemic agents and insulin, their action and potential adverse events. Most ENs and PCAs did not know why HbA1c was measured. Almost half the RNs and ENs and 80% of PCAs did not know how diabetes comorbidities affect medicine choices. RN achieved higher overall average knowledge scores,74.3%, compared to ENs and PCA, 49%. The interviews suggest lack of time, unclear communication processes, inadequate knowledge about medications and resident behaviour compromises optimal medicine administration. Twenty case files audits were undertaken in each RAC and revealed residents were taking on average nine medicines.

Conclusion: Staff involved in caring for residents with diabetes had suboptimal general and medicine-specific diabetes knowledge to deliver optimal care. System issues and unpredictable resident behaviours made medicine management difficult and compromised safety.