Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

Heterogeneity of impacts of high CO2 on the North Western European Shelf

The increase in atmospheric CO2 is a dual threat to the marine environment: from one side it drives climate change, leading to modifications in water temperature, circulation patterns and stratification intensity; on the other side it causes a decrease in marine pH (ocean acidification, or OA) due to the increase in dissolved CO2. Assessing the combined impact of climate change and OA on marine ecosystems is a challenging task. The response of the ecosystem to a single driver can be highly variable and remains still uncertain; additionally the interaction between these can be either synergistic or antagonistic. In this work we use the coupled oceanographic–ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM driven by climate forcing to study the interaction between climate change and OA. We focus in particular on carbonate chemistry, primary and secondary production. The model has been run in three different configurations in order to assess separately the impacts of climate change on net primary production and of OA on the carbonate chemistry, which have been strongly supported by scientific literature, from the impact of biological feedbacks of OA on the ecosystem, whose uncertainty still has to be well constrained. The global mean of the projected decrease of pH at the end of the century is about 0.27 pH units, but the model shows significant interaction among the drivers and high variability in the temporal and spatial response. As a result of this high variability, critical tipping point can be locally and/or temporally reached: e.g. undersaturation with respect to aragonite is projected to occur in the deeper part of the central North Sea during summer. Impacts of climate change and of OA on primary and secondary production may have similar magnitude, compensating in some area and exacerbating in others.

Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of ~6 Pg C yr−1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

Response to Comments on "Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services"

We show that globally declining fisheries catch trends cannot be explained by random processes and are consistent with declining stock abundance trends. Future projections are inherently uncertain but may provide a benchmark against which to assess the effectiveness of conservation measures. Marine reserves and fisheries closures are among those measures and can be equally effective in tropical and temperate areas—but must be combined with catch-, effort-, and gear restrictions to meet global conservation objectives.

Intersex in the clam Scrobicularia plana (Da Costa): Widespread occurrence in English Channel estuaries and surrounding areas

Estuarine clams Scrobicularia plana were sampled from 108 intertidal locations around the English Channel and adjacent areas. Although S. plana is believed to be a strict gonochorist, 58% of the populations sampled included intersexed individuals (described as male clams exhibiting ovotestis). Over the entire region, on average, 8.6% of male clams exhibited intersex, although proportions of affected males ranged from 0% to 53% depending on location. The severity of intersex was assessed using a simple classification scale, with the majority of individuals showing low levels of impact. Sex ratios were significantly skewed at some sites. There were no significant relationships between the incidence and severity of intersex; or of associations with size or parasitism of individual clams. Intersex in S. plana is a useful tool to assess endocrine disruptive effects in estuaries, although mechanisms of impact and causative agents remain uncertain.

Visions for the North Sea: The Societal Dilemma Behind Specifying Good Environmental Status.

We augment discussions about the Good Environmental Status of the North Sea by developing two extreme visions and assessing their societal benefits. One vision (‘Then’) assumes restoration of benthic functioning; we contend that trawling had already degraded the southern North Sea a century ago. Available information is used to speculate about benthic functioning in a relatively undisturbed southern North Sea. The second vision (‘Now’) draws on recent benthic functioning. The supply of five ecosystem services, supported by benthic functioning, is discussed. ‘Then’ offers confidence in the sustainable supply of diverse services but restoration of past function is uncertain and likely to be paired with costs, notably trawling restraints. ‘Now’ delivers known and valued services but sustained delivery is threatened by, for example, climate change. We do not advocate either vision. Our purpose is to stimulate debate about what society wants, and might receive, from the future southern North Sea.

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in foods: current evidence and potential consequences

Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of Johne's disease in cattle, sheep and goats, may have a role in Crohn's disease in humans. Animals with Johne's disease shed viable MAP in their milk and faeces. The organism is also widely disseminated in the blood and tissues of infected animals. Consequently, transmission to humans via consumption of animal-derived foods is a distinct possibility. Milk, other dairy products, beef and water have been identified as possible food vehicles of transmission. To date, viable MAP has been cultured from raw cows', sheep and goats' milk, retail pasteurized cows' milk, and some retail cheeses in several countries during recent studies. MAP has not been isolated from retail beef to date, although limited testing has been carried out. The public health consequences, if any, of low numbers of viable MAP being periodically consumed by susceptible individuals are uncertain. An association between MAP and Crohn's disease is not proven, but neither can it be discounted on the basis of current evidence. A precautionary approach is therefore warranted in relation to the existence of MAP in food, and action is needed to reduce the prevalence of Johne's disease in the cattle population worldwide, in order to minimize public exposure to this potential human pathogen.

Endostatin modulates VEGF-mediated barrier dysfunction in the retinal microvascular endothelium

Recent evidence indicates that the anti-angiogenic peptide endostatin may modulate some of the vasomodulatory effects of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the retina, including reduction of blood retinal barrier function although it remains uncertain how endostatin promotes endothelial barrier properties. The current study has sought to examine how physiological levels of endostatin alters VEGF-induced inner BRB function using an in vitro model system and evaluation of occludin and ZO-1 regulatory responses. In addition, the ability of exogenous endostatin to regulate VEGF-mediated retinal vascular permeability in vivo was investigated.

Retinal microvascular endothelial cells (RMEC's) were exposed to various concentrations of endostatin. In parallel studies, RMEC monolayers were treated with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF165). Vasopermeability of RMEC monolayers and occludin expression were determined.

Blood retinal barrier integrity was quantified in mouse retina using Evans Blue assay following intravitreal delivery of VEGF165, endostatin or a VEGF/endostatin combination.

Endostatin increased the levels of expression of occludin whilst causing no significant change in FITC-dextran flux across the RMEC monolayer. Endostatin reversed the effects of VEGF165-enhanced permeability between microvascular endothelial cells and induced phosphorylation of occludin. Evans Blue leakage from retinas treated with VEGF was 2.0 fold higher than that of contra-lateral untreated eyes (P<0.05) while leakage of eyes from endostatin treated animals was unchanged. When eyes were injected with a combination of VEGF165 and endostatin there was a significant reduction in retinal vasopermeability when compared to VEGF-injected eyes (P<0.05).

We conclude that endostatin can promote integrity of the retinal endothelial barrier, possibly by preventing VEGF-mediated alteration of tight junction integrity. This suggests that endostatin may be of clinical benefit in ocular disorders where significant retinal vasopermeability changes are present.

The effect of anisotropic elasticity on the yielding characteristics of overconsolidated natural clay

Quantitative application of elastoplastic theory to the yielding behaviour of natural soils has always been uncertain. Part of the reason is that the theory was developed for reconstituted materials with isotropic structure, in contrast to natural soils that are usually anisotropic. The approach considered in this study assumes that pre-yielding behaviour is governed by the theory of linear anisotropic elasticity and that yield loci in the mean effective stress ( p') – deviator stress (q) plane are aligned approximately along the coefficient of earth pressure (K0) line. The assumption of a rotated yield locus associated with anisotropic elastic behaviour within the state boundary surface indicates that the elastic wall within the state boundary surface is inclined. The form of the state boundary surface has been determined mathematically in terms of anisotropic elastic and Cam-Clay soil parameters. Stress path tests were conducted on samples of Belfast Upper Boulder Clay removed from a depth of 28 m below ground surface. Good agreement was found between predicted and measured yield loci. The study also examined the influence of subsequent isotropic compression on the yielding characteristics of the natural clay. The indications are that the anisotropy developed during deposition disappears when the sample is loaded to a stress level at least twice the stress generated during the original deposition process. The methods developed in the paper have also been applied to test results reported previously on Winnipeg clay, and good agreement was obtained.

A peculiar metal-rich star, HD 135485

Local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) absolute and differential abundances are presented for a peculiar metal-rich B-type star, HD 135485. These suggest that HD 135485 has a general enrichment of similar to0.5 dex in all the metals observed (C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, Ar, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe and Sr), except for nickel. The helium enhancement and hence hydrogen deficiency can account for less than or equal to 0.2 dex of this enhancement of metals, with the additional enhancement probably being representative of the progenitor gas. However, some of the metals appear to have greater enhancements, which may have occurred during the star's evolution. The significantly larger nitrogen abundance coupled with a modest helium enhancement observed in HD 135485 indicates that carbon- nitrogen (CN) processed material has possibly contaminated the stellar surface. Neon and carbon enhancements may indicate that helium core flashes have also occurred in HD 135485. Some of the iron-group elements (viz. Mn and Ni) appear to have similar abundance patterns to that of silicon Ap stars, but it is uncertain how these abundance patterns formed if they were not present in the progenitor gas. From a kinematical investigation it is unclear whether this star formed in a metal-rich region as implied by its chemical composition. From its position in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, HD 135485 would appear to be an evolved star lying close to or on the horizontal branch.

Ca II K observations of QSOs in the line-of-sight to the Magellanic Bridge

We describe medium-resolution spectroscopic observations taken with the ESO Multi-Mode Instrument (EMMI) in the CaII K line (lambda air = 3933.661 angstrom) towards 7 QSOs located in the line-of-sight to the Magellanic Bridge. At a spectral resolution R =lambda/Delta lambda = 6000, five of the sightlines have a signal-to-noise ( S/N) ratio of similar to 20 or higher. Definite Ca absorption due to Bridge material is detected towards 3 objects, with probable detection towards two other sightlines. Gas-phase CaII K Bridge and Milky Way abundances or lower limits for the all sightlines are estimated by the use of Parkes 21-cm H. emission line data. These data only have a spatial resolution of 14 arcmin compared with the optical observations which have milli-arcsecond resolution. With this caveat, for the three objects with sound CaII K detections, we find that the ionic abundance of CaII K relative to HI, A = log( N( CaK)/ N( HI)) for low- velocity Galactic gas ranges from - 8.3 to - 8.8 dex, with HI column densities varying from 3- 6 x 10(20) cm(-2). For Magellanic Bridge gas, the values of A are similar to 0.5 dex higher, ranging from similar to- 7.8 to - 8.2 dex, with N( HI) = 1- 5 x 1020 cm(-2). Higher values of A correspond to lower values of N( HI), although numbers are small. For the sightline towards B 0251 - 675, the Bridge gas has two different velocities, and in only one of these is CaII tentatively detected, perhaps indicating gas of a different origin or present-day characteristics ( such as dust content), although this conclusion is uncertain and there is the possibility that one of the components could be related to the Magellanic Stream. Higher signal-to-noise CaII K data and higher resolution H. data are required to determine whether A changes with N( HI) over the Bridge and if the implied difference in the metalicity of the two Bridge components towards B 0251-675 is real.

Escape times for rigid Brownian rotators in a bistable potential from the time evolution of the Green function and the characteristic time of the probability evolution

The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

'Superluminal' tunnelling as a weak measurement effect

We exploit the analogy between the transfer of a pulse across a scattering medium and Aharonov's weak measurements to resolve the long standing paradox between the impossibility to exceed the speed of light and the seemingly "superluminal" behavior of a tunneling particle in the barrier or a photon in a "fast-light" medium. We demonstrate that superluminality occurs when the value of the duration tau spent in the barrier is uncertain, whereas when tau is known accurately, no superluminal behavior is observed. In all cases only subluminal durations contribute to the transmission which precludes faster-than-light information transfer, as observed in a recent experiment.

Mutations affecting the Rossman fold of isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase are correlated with low-level mupirocin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus.

The isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase (ileS) gene was sequenced in toto from 9 and in part from 31 Staphylococcus aureus strains with various degrees of susceptibility to mupirocin. All strains for which the mupirocin MIC was greater than 8 µg/ml contained point mutations affecting the Rossman fold via Val-to-Phe changes at either residue 588 (V588F) or residue 631 (V631F). The importance of the V588F mutation was confirmed by an allele-specific PCR survey of 32 additional strains. Additional mutations of uncertain significance were found in residues clustered on the surface of the IleS protein.