Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

The specific role of relationship life events in the onset of depression during pregnancy and the postpartum

Background The precipitating role of life events in the onset of depression is well-established. The present study sought to examine whether life events hypothesised to be personally salient would be more strongly associated with depression than other life events. In a sample of women making the first transition to parenthood, we hypothesised that negative events related to the partner relationship would be particularly salient and thus more strongly predictive of depression than other events. Methods A community-based sample of 316 first-time mothers stratified by psychosocial risk completed interviews at 32 weeks gestation and 29 weeks postpartum to assess dated occurrence of life events and depression onsets from conception to 29 weeks postpartum. Complete data was available from 273 (86.4%). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine risk for onset of depression in the 6 months following a relationship event versus other events, after accounting for past history of depression and other potential confounders. Results 52 women (19.0%) experienced an onset of depression between conception and 6 months postpartum. Both relationship events (Hazard Ratio = 2.1, p = .001) and other life events (Hazard Ratio = 1.3, p = .020) were associated with increased risk for depression onset; however, relationship events showed a significantly greater risk for depression than did other life events (p = .044). Conclusions The results are consistent with the hypothesis that personally salient events are more predictive of depression onset than other events. Further, they indicate the clinical significance of events related to the partner relationship during pregnancy and the postpartum.

The role of lipid composition on the interaction between a tryptophan-rich protein and model bacterial membranes

The interaction between tryptophan-rich puroindoline proteins and model bacterial membranes at the air-liquid interface has been investigated by FTIR spectroscopy, surface pressure measurements and Brewster angle microscopy. The role of different lipid constituents on the interactions between lipid membrane and protein was studied using wild type (Pin-b) and mutant (Trp44 to Arg44 mutant, Pin-bs) puroindoline proteins. The results show differences in the lipid selectivity of the two proteins in terms of preferential binding to specific lipid head groups in mixed lipid systems. Pin-b wild type was able to penetrate mixed layers of phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) and phosphatidylglycerol (PG) head groups more deeply compared to the mutant Pin-bs. Increasing saturation of the lipid tails increased penetration and adsorption of Pin-b wild type, but again the response of the mutant form differed. The results provide insight as to the role of membrane architecture, lipid composition and fluidity, on antimicrobial activity of proteins. Data show distinct differences in the lipid binding behavior of Pin-b as a result of a single residue mutation, highlighting the importance of hydrophobic and charged amino acids in antimicrobial protein and peptide activity.

Self-concept clarity and compulsive Internet use: the role of preference for virtual interactions and employment status in British and North-American samples

Background and Aims Compulsive Internet Use (CIU) describes a maladaptive relationship with the Internet characterised by loss of control and conflict. Although also affecting adults, most studies use teenage samples, and theoretical development on risk factors is scarce. According to Davis (2001), the social connectivity function of the Internet is key in identifying traits associated with CIU. Since Self-Concept Clarity (SCC) is strongly related to social anxiety, and virtual interactions allow “self-edition”, we hypothesized that individuals low in SCC could choose virtual interactions as safer alternative to satisfy their social needs. This could in turn increase the risk of CIU. Building on a previous study, we also expected CIU to be more harmful in the unemployed. Methods We collected samples from the UK (N = 532) and US (N = 502) with equal distribution of employed and unemployed individuals. We ran Measurement Invariance tests to confirm that the constructs were equivalent across countries. Subsequently, we conducted mediation and moderation analysis to test our hypothesis with Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results Measurement Invariance was confirmed. The relationship between SCC and CIU was partially mediated by preference of virtual interactions in both countries. This preference was significantly related to lower social support. Short term unemployment seemed to accentuate the negative impact of CIU on life satisfaction in both countries, although only marginally significantly in the US. The unemployed reported significantly lower levels of life satisfaction. Conclusion We demonstrated that SCC is a key vulnerability factor to CIU in adults, and confirmed the additional risks for the unemployed.

The role of local atmospheric forcing on the modulation of the ocean mixed layer depth in reanalysis and a coupled single column ocean model

The role of the local atmospheric forcing on the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) over the global oceans is studied using ocean reanalysis data products and a single-column ocean model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model. The focus of this study is on how the annual mean and the seasonal cycle of the MLD relate to various forcing characteristics in different parts of the world's ocean, and how anomalous variations in the monthly mean MLD relate to anomalous atmospheric forcings. By analysing both ocean reanalysis data and the single-column ocean model, regions with different dominant forcings and different mean and variability characteristics of the MLD can be identified. Many of the global oceans' MLD characteristics appear to be directly linked to different atmospheric forcing characteristics at different locations. Here, heating and wind-stress are identified as the main drivers; in some, mostly coastal, regions the atmospheric salinity forcing also contributes. The annual mean MLD is more closely related to the annual mean wind-stress and the MLD seasonality is more closely to the seasonality in heating. The single-column ocean model, however, also points out that the MLD characteristics over most global ocean regions, and in particular the tropics and subtropics, cannot be maintained by local atmospheric forcings only, but are also a result of ocean dynamics that are not simulated in a single-column ocean model. Thus, lateral ocean dynamics are essentially in correctly simulating observed MLD.

Women's work choices in Kenya: the role of social institutions and household gender attitudes

This study considers the factors that influence women’s work behavior in Kenya. In particular, it examines whether gender attitudes and certain types of social institutions influence the probability of employment or type of employment for women. Using data from the Demographic and Health Survey of 2008–9, we find that religion and ethnicity are significant determinants of women’s employment in Kenya. While personal experience of female genital mutilation is insignificant, spousal age and education differences, as well as marital status (which reflect attitudes both in women’s natal and marital families), are significant determinants of women’s employment choices.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

The role of big data in governance: a regulatory and legal perspective of analytics in global financial services

This paper discusses how global financial institutions are using big data analytics within their compliance operations. A lot of previous research has focused on the strategic implications of big data, but not much research has considered how such tools are entwined with regulatory breaches and investigations in financial services. Our work covers two in-depth qualitative case studies, each addressing a distinct type of analytics. The first case focuses on analytics which manage everyday compliance breaches and so are expected by managers. The second case focuses on analytics which facilitate investigation and litigation where serious unexpected breaches may have occurred. In doing so, the study focuses on the micro/data to understand how these tools are influencing operational risks and practices. The paper draws from two bodies of literature, the social studies of information systems and finance to guide our analysis and practitioner recommendations. The cases illustrate how technologies are implicated in multijurisdictional challenges and regulatory conflicts at each end of the operational risk spectrum. We find that compliance analytics are both shaping and reporting regulatory matters yet often firms may have difficulties in recruiting individuals with relevant but diverse skill sets. The cases also underscore the increasing need for financial organizations to adopt robust information governance policies and processes to ease future remediation efforts.

Kazakhstan: long-term economic growth and the role of the oil sector

This study combines a narrative and modelling framework to analyse the development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector since its takeoff following separation from the USSR. As in the case of other emerging or transitional countries with large natural resource endowments, a key question is whether the exploitation of the natural resource is a benefit to longer term economic development: is it a curse, a blessing – or neither? Narrative evidence suggests that the establishment of good governance, in terms of institutions and policies, provides a background to sound long-term development, especially if combined with the development of sectors outside the natural resource sector, for example diversification into manufacturing and services, often through attracting FDI. The narrative is supported by econometric modelling of the relationship between domestic output, overseas output and exports of oil, which finds in favour of a sustained positive effect of oil exports on GDP. The model then provides a basis for projection of the growth in GDP given a consensus view of likely developments in the oil price.

Balancing the role of the dental school in teaching, research and patient care; including care for underserved areas

Inequalities within dentistry are common and are reflected in wide differences in the levels of oral health and the standard of care available both within and between countries and communities. Furthermore there are patients, particularly those with special treatment needs, who do not have the same access to dental services as the general public. The dental school should aim to recruit students from varied backgrounds into all areas covered by the oral healthcare team and to train students to treat the full spectrum of patients including those with special needs. It is essential, however, that the dental student achieves a high standard of clinical competence and this cannot be gained by treating only those patients with low expectations for care. Balancing these aspects of clinical education is difficult. Research is an important stimulus to better teaching and better clinical care. It is recognized that dental school staff should be active in research, teaching, clinical work and frequently administration. Maintaining a balance between the commitments to clinical care, teaching and research while also taking account of underserved areas in each of these categories is a difficult challenge but one that has to be met to a high degree in a successful, modern dental school.

Downwelling solar irradiance in the biomass burning region of the southern Amazon: Dependence on aerosol intensive optical properties and role of water vapor

The sensitivity of solar irradiance at the surface to the variability of aerosol intensive optical properties is investigated for a site (Alta Floresta) in the southern portion of the Amazon basin using detailed comparisons between measured and modeled irradiances. Apart from aerosol intensive optical properties, specifically single scattering albedo (omega(o lambda)) and asymmetry parameter (g(lambda)), which were assumed constant, all other relevant input to the model were prescribed based on observation. For clean conditions, the differences between observed and modeled irradiances were consistent with instrumental uncertainty. For polluted conditions, the agreement was significantly worse, with a root mean square difference three times larger (23.5 Wm(-2)). Analysis revealed a noteworthy correlation between the irradiance differences (observed minus modeled) and the column water vapor (CWV) for polluted conditions. Positive differences occurred mostly in wet conditions, while the differences became more negative as the atmosphere dried. To explore the hypothesis that the irradiance differences might be linked to the modulation of omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) by humidity, AERONET retrievals of aerosol properties and CWV over the same site were analyzed. The results highlight the potential role of humidity in modifying omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) and suggest that to explain the relationship seen between irradiances differences via aerosols properties the focus has to be on humidity-dependent processes that affect particles chemical composition. Undoubtedly, there is a need to better understand the role of humidity in modifying the properties of smoke aerosols in the southern portion of the Amazon basin.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.