Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

A high level e-maintenance architecture to support on-site teams

Emergent architectures and paradigms targeting reconfigurable manufacturing systems increasingly rely on intelligent modules to maximize the robustness and responsiveness of modern installations. Although intelligent behaviour significantly minimizes the occurrence of faults and breakdowns it does not exclude them nor can prevent equipment’s normal wear. Adequate maintenance is fundamental to extend equipments’ life cycle. It is of major importance the ability of each intelligent device to take an active role in maintenance support. Further this paradigm shift towards “embedded intelligence”, supported by cross platform technologies, induces relevant organizational and functional changes on local maintenance teams. On the one hand, the possibility of outsourcing maintenance activities, with the warranty of a timely response, through the use of pervasive networking technologies and, on the other hand, the optimization of local maintenance staff are some examples of how IT is changing the scenario in maintenance. The concept of e-maintenance is, in this context, emerging as a new discipline with defined socio-economic challenges. This paper proposes a high level maintenance architecture supporting maintenance teams’ management and offering contextualized operational support. All the functionalities hosted by the architecture are offered to the remaining system as network services. Any intelligent module, implementing the services’ interface, can report diagnostic, prognostic and maintenance recommendations that enable the core of the platform to decide on the best course of action.

Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

Weather parameters and nosocomial bloodstream infection: a case-referent study

OBJECTIVE To evaluate if temperature and humidity influenced the etiology of bloodstream infections in a hospital from 2005 to 2010.METHODS The study had a case-referent design. Individual cases of bloodstream infections caused by specific groups or pathogens were compared with several references. In the first analysis, average temperature and humidity values for the seven days preceding collection of blood cultures were compared with an overall “seven-days moving average” for the study period. The second analysis included only patients with bloodstream infections. Several logistic regression models were used to compare different pathogens and groups with respect to the immediate weather parameters, adjusting for demographics, time, and unit of admission.RESULTS Higher temperatures and humidity were related to the recovery of bacteria as a whole (versus fungi) and of gram-negative bacilli. In the multivariable models, temperature was positively associated with the recovery of gram-negative bacilli (OR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.10;1.19) or Acinetobacter baumannii (OR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.16;1.37), even after adjustment for demographic and admission data. An inverse association was identified for humidity.CONCLUSIONS The study documented the impact of temperature and humidity on the incidence and etiology of bloodstream infections. The results correspond with those from ecological studies, indicating a higher incidence of gram-negative bacilli during warm seasons. These findings should guide policies directed at preventing and controlling healthcare-associated infections.

Development of a meso-microscale coupling procedure for site assessment in complex terrain

A procedure for coupling mesoscale and CFD codes is presented, enabling the inclusion of realistic stratification flow regimes and boundary conditions in CFD simulations of relevance to site and resource assessment studies in complex terrain. Two distinct techniques are derived: (i) in the first one, boundary conditions are extracted from mesoscale results to produce time-varying CFD solutions; (ii) in the second case, a statistical treatment of mesoscale data leads to steady-state flow boundary conditions believed to be more representative than the idealised profiles which are current industry practice. Results are compared with measured data and traditional CFD approaches.

Finding Aedes aegypti in a natural breeding site in an urban zone, Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil

ABSTRACT This is the description of how nine Aedes aegypti larvae were found in a natural breeding site in the Pinheiros neighborhood, city of Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil. The record was conducted in December 2014, during an entomological surveillance program of dengue virus vectors, with an active search of potential breeding sites, either artificial or natural. Finding Ae. aegypti larvae in a tree hole shows this species’ ability to use both artificial and natural environments as breeding sites and habitats, which points towards the importance of maintaining continuous surveillance on this mosquito in all kinds of water-holding containers.

Immunodiagnostic confirmation of hydatid disease in patients with a presumptive diagnosis of infection

Information obtained from the routine application of hydatid immunodiagnostic techniques in different clinical situations over a seven-year period is presented. The Immunoelectrophoresis test was used until it was replaced by the simpler, more sensitive and equally specific arc 5 double diffusion (DD5) test. Examination of sera from 1,888 patients with signs and/or symptoms compatible with hydatid disease revealed that the presurgical confirmation of Echinococcus granulosus infection is only obtained by detection of anti-antigen 5 antibodies. The latter were not found in 1,539 presumptive hydatidosis patients whose definitive diagnoses corresponded to other disease conditions. However, false positive latex agglutination test results were obtained in two cases. In all patients whose preoperative serum showed three or more uncharacteristic bands in the absence of anti-antigen 5 antibodies, hydatid cysts were found sur gically. DD5 testing of a fluid sample collected by puncture established its hydatid etiology. Post-operative monitoring of hydatidosis patients demonstrated that persistence of DD5-positivity two years after surgery established the presence of other cysts. Further evidence was obtained in patients with hydatid cysts in intrathoracic, abdominal or other locations associating cyst membrane integrity, antigen release and immunodiagnostic test positivity.

Industry energy optimization: A case study in a biodiesel production site

This paper presents a case study of heat exchanger network (HEN) retrofit with the objective to reduce the utilities consumption in a biodiesel production process. Pinch analysis studies allow determining the minimum duty utilities as well the maximum of heat recovery. The existence of heat exchangers for heat recovery already running in the process causes a serious restriction for the implementation of grassroot HEN design based on pinch studies. Maintaining the existing HEN, a set of alternatives with additional heat exchangers was created and analysed using some industrial advice and selection criteria. The final proposed solution allows to increase the actual 18 % of recovery heat of the all heating needs of the process to 23 %, with an estimated annual saving in hot utility of 35 k(sic)/y.

Resistance of mice immunized with killed culture trypomastigotes against infection by insect-derived trypomastigotes of Trypanosoma cruzi

Mice immunized with heat or merthiolate-killed culture trypomastigotes of the non-virulent G strain were resistant to the challenge by insect-derived trypomastigotes of the CL strain of Trypanosoma cruzi. No parasitemia was detected, by direct microscopic examination of blood samples, in 90% of immunized mice while all control animals developed a high parasitemia. Trypsinization before heat-inactivation, or fixation with paraformaldehyde, apparently reduced the immunogenicity of the G strain trypomastigotes. Mice immunized with trypomastigotes treated by either of these procedures were not protected against infection by virulent T. cruzi. Analysis of the 13I-labeled surface proteins of G strain trypomastigotes inactivated by the various methods suggests that these components are involved in eliciting protective immunity against T. cruzi infection.

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection: occurrence in two socioeconomically distinct populations of a developing country

In São Paulo, Brazil, between November 1980 and July 1982, 1614 newborns of middle socioeconomic background and 1156 newborns of low socioeconomic background were examined for the occurrence of congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection by isolation of virus from urine samples or detection of specific anti-CMV IgM in umbilical cord serum tested by immunofluorescence. In the low socioeconomic population prevalence of CMV complement-fixing antibodies in mothers was 84.4%(151/179) and the incidence of congenital infection assessed by virus isolation 0.98% (5/508), as compared with 0.46% (3/648) in the group of newborns tested by detection of specific anti-CMV IgM in umbilical cord-serum. In middle socioeconomic level population prevalence of CMV complement-fixing antibodies in mothers was 66.5% (284/427) and the incidence of CMV congenital infection was 0.39% (2/518) in the group of newborns screened by virus isolation and 0.18% (2/1096) in the group tested by detection of specific anti-CMV IgM. In the present study none of the 12 congenitally infected newborns presented clinical apparent disease at birth.

The effect of Schistosoma mansoni infection on child morbidity in the State in Bahia, Brazil: II — Analysis at the individual level

The present investigation was carried out on a sample of 840 children (5 to 16 years old) from ten small towns of the State of Bahia in northeastern Brazil. The objetive was to study, by using a cross sectional methodology, the evolution of schistosomiasis morbidity (hepatic and splenic enlargement) in children, and the role of the intensity of S. mansoni infection in this process. The children were analised in three age groups (5 to 8, to 12 and 13 to 16 years old) and classified as uninfected, mildly infected, moderately infected and heavily infected according to the number of eggs in the stool. In children aged 5 to 8 years, increasing egg counts were not associated with increasing frequencies of hepatic or splenic enlargement. In the 9 to 12 years old group and association was observed with the prevalence of hepatic enlargement, but not with the prevalence of spleen enlargement. In the oldest group, 13 to 16 years old, an association was observed with the prevalence of enlargement of both organs. It was evident that in this population schistosomiasis morbidity develops in the early period of life as a gradual process starting with liver enlargement and followed by spleen enlargement some years later. It was found that the intensity of infection has a fundamental role in this process, although there is a latent period of some years before clinical splenomegaly appears in moderate-heavily infected children. The Authors suggest that the prevalence of splenomegaly in the 13 to 16 years old group is a good measure of the community level of schistosomiasis morbidity and could be used to measure the impact of control programs.

Experimental infection with Schistosoma mansoni of Biomphalaria straminea from different parts of the Northeast of Brazil

In the western part of the State of Bahia Biomphalaria straminea and B. glabrata both occur, but in the majority of cases they do not share the same habitat. In the State of Ceará, however, B. straminea is the sole snail host of Schistosoma mansoni. In this survey, no naturally infected B. straminea was found among snails collected from Bahia and Ceará, evidently because of the very low infection rates. The susceptibility of laboratory-reared specimens to infection with a Puerto Rican strain of S. mansoni was then tested experimentally. In general, the snails showed very low susceptibility. The infection rates were 1.1% among snails from Redenção (Ceará); 2.3% in those from Pentecoste (Ceará); 2.9% in snails from São Desidério (Bahia), while they were very high among an albino strain (NIH) of B. glabrata used as control. Another group of B. straminea from São Desidério was exposed to a Bahian strain of S. mansoni and the infection rate was still very low (3.6%) Apparently, the very low susceptibility of B. straminea, despite high snail density, is correlated with moderate infection rates with S. mansoni among humans, as shown by the results of stool examinations conducted by SUCAM in the municipalities of Redenção and Pentecoste, in Ceará.

Trypanosoma (Herpetosoma) rangeli Tejera, 1920: intracellular amastigote stages of reproduction in white mice

The method, site, and stage of multiplication of Trypanosoma (Herpetosoma) rangeli Tejera, 1920 has not hitherto been known. "We have now observed many intracellular nests or pseudocysts, containing amastigotes and trypomastigotes of this parasite in the heart, liver, and spleen of suckling (5.0 g) male white mice (NMRI strain) inoculated i.p. with 9 x 10(4) metatrypomastigotes/g body weight from a 12-day-old culture of the "Dog-82" strain of T. rangeli. At the peak of parasitemia (1.9 x 10(6) trypomastigotes/ml blood, 3 days post-inoculation) various tissues were taken for sectioning and staining. The heart was most intensely parasitized. The amastigotes were rounded or ellipsoidal, with a rounded nucleus and the kinetoplast in the form of a straight or curved bar; the average maximum diameter of 50 measured amastigotes was 4.2 p. Binary fission was seen in the nucleus and kinetoplast of some amastigotes; no blood trypomastigotes were seen in division. The above characteristics, as well as the location of the pseudocysts in the tissues, are similar to T. cruzi. Comparison of these results with those reported for other Herpetosoma suggest study of the taxonomic position of T. rangeli.

Water-contact patterns and schistosoma mansoni infection in a rural community in northeast Brazil

We evaluated the influence of water-related human activities, contaminative behaviour, house location, education and socio-economic status on endemic Schistosoma mansoni infection. The study was conducted in a hilry non-irrigated area of rural northeast Brazil amongst a defined population of subsistence farmers, of whom 93% were infected by age 20. The area was mapped, water bodies were surveyed, and a detailed questionnaire was performed on each household. Infection was assessed by duplicate stool examinations using the sensitive Bell technique to quantify egg excretion. For each household, and index of intensity of infection was computed by grouping individual log-transformed egg counts as an age-sex adjusted Z score. Few households had a sanitary installation or a domestic water supply. However, neither water-contact nor contaminative behavior were indiscriminate. The people made considerable effort to defaecate far from a water source, to obtain household drinking water from the cleanest source, and to bathe only at certain sites where privacy is assured. Land ownership and literacy correlated poorly with the household index of intensity of infection. The key influence on infection status was the relative location of the house and snail-free or snail colonized water sources. In this area, a safe domestic water supply is the critical input needed to achieve definitive control of endemic Schistosomiasis.

Interrelation between parasitic infections and hypovitaminosis A: Schistosoma mansoni infection and the retinol blood levels in an endemic area of State of Minas Gerais (Brazil)

The interrelation between schistosomiasis and the retinol blood levels was studied in a double blind method, by comparing the serum vitamin A of the infected and non-infected group of an endemic area of Schistosoma mansoni infection. The infected group was characterized by 106 parasitized persons in the intestinal and hepatointestinal forms, who eliminated less than 500 eggs/gram of feces (Modified Kato's method); the non-infected group was characterized by 112 inhabitants of this endemic area without eggs in the stools and presenting negative intradermal reactions, and absence of previous specific treatment. The blood levels of retinol was determinated using trifluoracetic acid method, regarding the normal levels > 20,0mg/100ml. The results of this study point out the absence of correlation between S. mansoni infection and blood levels of vitamin A.