Impacto de un programa de alfabetización temprana en niños de sectores urbano marginales

Este trabajo tiene como objetivos contribuir al conocimiento del proceso de alfabetización temprana en español en niños de sectores sociales desfavorecidos, y analizar los resultados de la implementación de un programa destinado al desarrollo de habilidades y conocimientos relativos a la lectura y la escritura inicial. El tipo de intervención propuesta, surge del programa ECOS , ya probado en español, pero no replicado suficientemente en niños de edades preescolares. Se ha estudiado el impacto de la aplicación de dicho programa, destinado a niños de 4, 5 y 6 años de edad, pertenecientes a sectores en desventaja socio económica, que concurrían a jardines de infantes de la Provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina). Esta tesis se enmarca en los modelos de investigación proporcionados desde la Psicología Cognitiva y la corriente sociocultural, y sustenta la hipótesis de que el presente programa incrementa, en mayor medida que la curricula escolar las habilidades de conciencia fonológica, el reconocimiento y escritura de palabras y textos, así como también las habilidades de comprensión y producción oral de textos narrativos, en el corto y mediano plazo. Su originalidad reside en la especificidad del programa seleccionado y en haber considerado de manera conjunta la evaluación de su impacto, a través de un seguimiento longitudinal, que permitió no sólo verificar la persistencia de sus efectos a mediano plazo, sino también las relaciones que guardan entre sí las variables evaluadas, el poder predictivo de unas sobre otras, el momento en el que se produce el impacto y sobre cuáles de las variables y el tamaño de ese impacto. La investigación se realizó comparando el desempeño de dos grupos de niños uno experimental en el cual se aplicó dicho programa y uno control. Al inicio de la investigación los niños fueron homologados en cuanto al estrato social de procedencia (identificado por el nivel educacional y ocupacional de los padres), a las características de los establecimientos educativos a los que concurrían y a la de los contextos alfabetizadores hogareños así como respecto de sus conocimientos y habilidades iniciales. Las variables a ser consideradas en la evaluación de los desempeños fueron las siguientes: habilidades de conciencia fonológica, conocimientos sobre material impreso y sobre el sistema de escritura, lectura y escritura de palabras de diferente longitud y complejidad, lectura de pseudopalabras, lectura y escritura de textos y comprensión y renarración oral de textos narrativos. Los niños fueron evaluados en cuatro oportunidades diferentes, comparándose los desempeños de ambos grupos en el transcurso de dos años y medio: Se aplicó un modelo de medidas repetidas y se calculó el estadístico Effect Size para todas las variables al finalizar la intervención y mediano plazo. Las conclusiones extraídas de esta investigación ponen en evidencia el impacto positivo del programa de intervención. A mediano plazo se verifica una diferencia promedio de alrededor del 30 entre los niños de ambos grupos, en los porcentajes de aciertos en las pruebas que evalúan las habilidades de conciencia fonológica, lectura y escritura de palabras y comprensión de textos

Exilio, migración, destierro? : Los trabajadores chilenos que se asentaron en el Nor Este de Chubut a partir de Septiembre de 1973. Memorias, historias e implicancias

En este trabajo abordamos el análisis de experiencias exiliares de trabajadores chilenos que se radicaron en el Noreste de la Provincia de Chubut, en Patagonia Argentina, después de producido el golpe de estado contra el presidente democrático Salvador Allende Gossens, en Septiembre de 1973. Cuando revisé la factibilidad de la investigación, y en mérito a los escasos repositorios documentales, decidí, dando continuidad a indagaciones previas, trabajar con historia oral. Esta metodología o práctica, involucra una dimensión personal, subjetiva y afectiva, que supone una constante relación entre los sujetos que participan, lo que implica una cualitativa diferencia en relación a las fuentes más tradicionales. No minimizo el valor de la estadística, pero hago una opción por nombrar y conocer a quienes han compartido con nosotros vivencias y experiencias, explicitando nuestra inscripción en la construcción de la información documental, no objetivándonos. El trabajo desarrollado se halla en la encrucijada entre la historia del pasado reciente y la memoria; con una perspectiva "desde abajo", buscando conjugar la no uniformidad de la experiencia humana, con la pretensión de generalidad y explicación de la ciencia social. Las narraciones o testimonios obtenidos las he revisado, procurando develar las representaciones que subyacen, y comprendiendo el modo en que actuaron. Las memorias tienen un carácter subjetivo y en permanente transformación, lo que en cierto sentido puede singularizarlas, pero como historiadores debemos inscribirlas en un contexto histórico global, para procurar esclarecer las causas, las condiciones, y las estructuras, aportando a una historia total. Hemos rescatado prácticas, percepciones, y discursos; develando la importancia del trabajo como factor organizador y estabilizador, al dotar a estos sujetos, de un sitio en la sociedad receptora, y permitiéndoles "ir desarmando sus valijas", es decir, ir superando la transitoriedad. Al caracterizar al exilio chileno, en el contexto internacional y local; y atendiendo a las escasas producciones que dan cuenta del universo obrero en estas experiencias traumáticas, han sido evidentes los límites que supone una estricta separación entre exilio, y migración económica o política; ya que dicha conceptualización encierra una mirada que invisibiliza derroteros que en principio, o superficialmente, pueden ser leídos como poco organizados. La aplicación del análisis de red, por cierto contribuyó a hacerlos visibles, transformándolos en actores racionales, con objetivos que se movilizaron a partir de los recursos de que dispusieron; tratando de superar el paradigma que hacía de ellos seres desesperados: fueron mujeres y hombres que eligieron un destino posible, siempre atendiendo al doble carácter de la experiencia en que estuvieron inmersos: la salida de su país por un lado los liberó, pero también los privó; asociando indisolublemente sentimientos de dolor por el desprendimiento de lo propio -de los afectos personales y colectivos-, agravados por los efectos de la derrota y la incertidumbre. Son sujetos que pusieron su identidad en riesgo. Pretendemos lograr que esta investigación, no sea sólo un estudio de caso, sino que pueda inscribirse a partir de su especificidad, en tanto exilio obrero, en una perspectiva comparativa, superando una definición espacial específica, en el Nor Este de Chubut.

Documentation, profile descriptions and analytical results of loes profiles from Bavaria, southern Germany

This study investigates the landscape evolution and soil development in the loess area near Regensburg between approximately 6000-2000 yr BP (radiocarbon years), Eastern Bavaria. The focus is on the question how man and climate influenced landscape evolution and what their relative significance was. The theoretical background concerning the factors that controlled prehistoric soil erosion in Middle Europe is summarized with respect to rainfall intensity and distribution, pedogenesis, Pleistocene relief, and prehistoric farming. Colluvial deposits , flood loams, and soils were studied at ten different and representative sites that served as archives of their respective palaeoenvironments. Geomorphological, sedimentological, and pedological methods were applied. According to the findings presented here, there was a high asynchronity of landscape evolution in the investigation area, which was due to prehistoric land-use patterns. Prehistoric land use and settlement caused highly difIerenciated phases of morphodynamic activity and stability in time and space. These are documented at the single catenas ofeach site. In general, Pleistocene relief was substantially lowered. At the same time smaller landforms such as dells and minor asymmetric valleys filled up and strongly transformed. However, there were short phases at many sites, forming short lived linear erosion features ('Runsen'), resulting from exceptional rainfalls. These forms are results of single events without showing regional trends. Generally, the onset of the sedimentation of colluvial deposits took place much earlier (usually 3500 yr BP (radiocarbon) and younger) than the formation of flood loams. Thus, the deposition of flood loams in the Kleine Laaber river valley started mainly as a consequence of iron age farming only at around 2500 yr BP (radiocarbon). A cascade system explains the different ages of colluvial deposits and flood loams: as a result of prehistoric land use, dells and other minor Pleistocene landforms were filled with colluvial sediments. After the filling of these primary sediment traps , eroded material was transported into flood plains, thus forming flood loams. But at the moment we cannot quantify the extent ofprehistoric soil erosion in the investigation area. The three factors that controlled the prehistoric Iandscapc evolution in the Ioess area near Regensburg are as follows: 1. The transformation from a natural to a prehistoric cultural landscape was the most important factor: A landscape with stable relief was changed into a highly morphodynamic one with soil erosion as the dominant process of this change. 2. The sediment traps of the pre-anthropogenic relief determined where the material originated from soil erosion was deposited: either sedimentation took place on the slopes or the filled sediment traps of the slopes rendered flood loam formation possible. Climatic influence of any importance can only be documented as the result of land use in connection with singular and/or statistic events of heavy rainfalls. Without human impact, no significant change in the Holocene landscape would have been possible.

Chemical composition of surficial bottom sediments from the Chukchi Sea and adjacent part of the Arctic Ocean

This paper presents data on chemical composition of bottom sediments from the Chukchi Sea and the adjacent Arctic Ocean. Multivariate statistical techniques were used for analysis of the data set and revealed that grain size fractionation of the original terrigenous component during sedimentation was the major factor of clustering of the samples in study. Secondary factors include accumulation of biogenic siliceous and carbonate material and chemogenic or biochemical accumulation of iron, manganese, and some trace elements. The latter factor was significant in areas of tectonic activity within the graben-rift system of the Chukchi Sea.

(Table 4) Seasonal variation of sea spray sodium concentrations during 2004-2007 at Concordia Station, Antarctica

From November 2004 to December 2007, size-segregated aerosol samples were collected all-year-round at Dome C (East Antarctica) by using PM10 and PM2.5 samplers, and multi-stage impactors. The data set obtained from the chemical analysis provided the longest and the most time-resolved record of sea spray aerosol (sea salt Na+) in inner Antarctica. Sea spray showed a sharp seasonal pattern. The highest values measured in winter (Apr-Nov) were about ten times larger than in summer (Dec-Mar). For the first time, a size-distribution seasonal pattern was also shown: in winter, sea spray particles are mainly submicrometric, while their summer size-mode is around 1-2 µm. Meteorological analysis on a synoptic scale allowed the definition of atmospheric conditions leading sea spray to Dome C. An extreme-value approach along with specific environmental based criteria was taken to yield stronger fingerprints linking atmospheric circulation (means and anomalies) to extreme sea spray events. Air mass back-trajectory analyses for some high sea spray events allowed the identification of two major air mass pathways, reflecting different size distributions: micrometric fractions for transport from the closer Indian-Pacific sector, and sub-micrometric particles for longer trajectories over the Antarctic Plateau. The seasonal pattern of the SO4**2- /Na+ ratio enabled the identification of few events depleted in sulphate, with respect to the seawater composition. By using methanesulphonic acid (MSA) profile to evaluate the biogenic SO4**2- contribution, a more reliable sea salt sulphate was calculated. In this way, few events (mainly in April and in September) were identified originating probably from the "frost flower" source. A comparison with daily-collected superficial snow samples revealed that there is a temporal shift between aerosol and snow sea spray trends. This feature could imply a more complex deposition processes of sea spray, involving significant contribution of wet and diamond dust deposition, but further work has to be carried out to rule out the effect of wind re-distribution and to have more statistic significance.

Alarm tree analysis using statistical techniques

This work presents a systematic method for the generation and treatment of the alarms' graphs, being its final object to find the Alarm Root Cause of the Massive Alarms that are produced in the dispatching centers. Although many works about this matter have been already developed, the problem about the alarm management in the industry is still completely unsolved. In this paper, a simple statistic analysis of the historical data base is conducted. The results obtained by the acquisition alarm systems, are used to generate a directed graph from which the more significant alarms are extracted, previously analyzing any possible case in which a great quantity of alarms are produced.

MIRACLE Approaches to Multilingual Information Retrieval: A Baseline for Future Research

This paper describes the first set of experiments defined by the MIRACLE (Multilingual Information RetrievAl for the CLEf campaign) research group for some of the cross language tasks defined by CLEF. These experiments combine different basic techniques, linguistic-oriented and statistic-oriented, to be applied to the indexing and retrieval processes.

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

Análisis de los factores determinantes de la repetición del proceso de compra en el comercio electrónico entre empresas y consumidores finales. Aplicación al mercado español

Las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación en general e Internet en particular han supuesto una revolución en nuestra forma de comunicarnos, relacionarnos, producir, comprar y vender acortando tiempo y distancias entre proveedores y consumidores. A la paulatina penetración del ordenador, los teléfonos inteligentes y la banda ancha fija y/o móvil ha seguido un mayor uso de estas tecnologías entre ciudadanos y empresas. El comercio electrónico empresa–consumidor (B2C) alcanzó en 2010 en España un volumen de 9.114 millones de euros, con un incremento del 17,4% respecto al dato registrado en 2009. Este crecimiento se ha producido por distintos hechos: un incremento en el porcentaje de internautas hasta el 65,1% en 2010 de los cuales han adquirido productos o servicios a través de la Red un 43,1% –1,6 puntos porcentuales más respecto a 2010–. Por otra parte, el gasto medio por comprador ha ascendido a 831€ en 2010, lo que supone un incremento del 10,9% respecto al año anterior. Si segmentamos a los compradores según por su experiencia anterior de compra podemos encontrar dos categorías: el comprador novel –que adquirió por primera vez productos o servicios en 2010– y el comprador constante –aquel que había adquirido productos o servicios en 2010 y al menos una vez en años anteriores–. El 85,8% de los compradores se pueden considerar como compradores constantes: habían comprado en la Red en 2010, pero también lo habían hecho anteriormente. El comprador novel tiene un perfil sociodemográfico de persona joven de entre 15–24 años, con estudios secundarios, de clase social media y media–baja, estudiante no universitario, residente en poblaciones pequeñas y sigue utilizando fórmulas de pago como el contra–reembolso (23,9%). Su gasto medio anual ascendió en 2010 a 449€. El comprador constante, o comprador que ya había comprado en Internet anteriormente, tiene un perfil demográfico distinto: estudios superiores, clase alta, trabajador y residente en grandes ciudades, con un comportamiento maduro en la compra electrónica dada su mayor experiencia –utiliza con mayor intensidad canales exclusivos en Internet que no disponen de tienda presencial–. Su gasto medio duplica al observado en compradores noveles (con una media de 930€ anuales). Por tanto, los compradores constantes suponen una mayoría de los compradores con un gasto medio que dobla al comprador que ha adoptado el medio recientemente. Por consiguiente es de interés estudiar los factores que predicen que un internauta vuelva a adquirir un producto o servicio en la Red. La respuesta a esta pregunta no se ha revelado sencilla. En España, la mayoría de productos y servicios aún se adquieren de manera presencial, con una baja incidencia de las ventas a distancia como la teletienda, la venta por catálogo o la venta a través de Internet. Para dar respuesta a las preguntas planteadas se ha investigado desde distintos puntos de vista: se comenzará con un estudio descriptivo desde el punto de vista de la demanda que trata de caracterizar la situación del comercio electrónico B2C en España, poniendo el foco en las diferencias entre los compradores constantes y los nuevos compradores. Posteriormente, la investigación de modelos de adopción y continuidad en el uso de las tecnologías y de los factores que inciden en dicha continuidad –con especial interés en el comercio electrónico B2C–, permiten afrontar el problema desde la perspectiva de las ecuaciones estructurales pudiendo también extraer conclusiones de tipo práctico. Este trabajo sigue una estructura clásica de investigación científica: en el capítulo 1 se introduce el tema de investigación, continuando con una descripción del estado de situación del comercio electrónico B2C en España utilizando fuentes oficiales (capítulo 2). Posteriormente se desarrolla el marco teórico y el estado del arte de modelos de adopción y de utilización de las tecnologías (capítulo 3) y de los factores principales que inciden en la adopción y continuidad en el uso de las tecnologías (capítulo 4). El capítulo 5 desarrolla las hipótesis de la investigación y plantea los modelos teóricos. Las técnicas estadísticas a utilizar se describen en el capítulo 6, donde también se analizan los resultados empíricos sobre los modelos desarrollados en el capítulo 5. El capítulo 7 expone las principales conclusiones de la investigación, sus limitaciones y propone nuevas líneas de investigación. La primera parte corresponde al capítulo 1, que introduce la investigación justificándola desde un punto de vista teórico y práctico. También se realiza una breve introducción a la teoría del comportamiento del consumidor desde una perspectiva clásica. Se presentan los principales modelos de adopción y se introducen los modelos de continuidad de utilización que se estudiarán más detalladamente en el capítulo 3. En este capítulo se desarrollan los objetivos principales y los objetivos secundarios, se propone el mapa mental de la investigación y se planifican en un cronograma los principales hitos del trabajo. La segunda parte corresponde a los capítulos dos, tres y cuatro. En el capítulo 2 se describe el comercio electrónico B2C en España utilizando fuentes secundarias. Se aborda un diagnóstico del sector de comercio electrónico y su estado de madurez en España. Posteriormente, se analizan las diferencias entre los compradores constantes, principal interés de este trabajo, frente a los compradores noveles, destacando las diferencias de perfiles y usos. Para los dos segmentos se estudian aspectos como el lugar de acceso a la compra, la frecuencia de compra, los medios de pago utilizados o las actitudes hacia la compra. El capítulo 3 comienza desarrollando los principales conceptos sobre la teoría del comportamiento del consumidor, para continuar estudiando los principales modelos de adopción de tecnología existentes, analizando con especial atención su aplicación en comercio electrónico. Posteriormente se analizan los modelos de continuidad en el uso de tecnologías (Teoría de la Confirmación de Expectativas; Teoría de la Justicia), con especial atención de nuevo a su aplicación en el comercio electrónico. Una vez estudiados los principales modelos de adopción y continuidad en el uso de tecnologías, el capítulo 4 analiza los principales factores que se utilizan en los modelos: calidad, valor, factores basados en la confirmación de expectativas –satisfacción, utilidad percibida– y factores específicos en situaciones especiales –por ejemplo, tras una queja– como pueden ser la justicia, las emociones o la confianza. La tercera parte –que corresponde al capítulo 5– desarrolla el diseño de la investigación y la selección muestral de los modelos. En la primera parte del capítulo se enuncian las hipótesis –que van desde lo general a lo particular, utilizando los factores específicos analizados en el capítulo 4– para su posterior estudio y validación en el capítulo 6 utilizando las técnicas estadísticas apropiadas. A partir de las hipótesis, y de los modelos y factores estudiados en los capítulos 3 y 4, se definen y vertebran dos modelos teóricos originales que den respuesta a los retos de investigación planteados en el capítulo 1. En la segunda parte del capítulo se diseña el trabajo empírico de investigación definiendo los siguientes aspectos: alcance geográfico–temporal, tipología de la investigación, carácter y ambiente de la investigación, fuentes primarias y secundarias utilizadas, técnicas de recolección de datos, instrumentos de medida utilizados y características de la muestra utilizada. Los resultados del trabajo de investigación constituyen la cuarta parte de la investigación y se desarrollan en el capítulo 6, que comienza analizando las técnicas estadísticas basadas en Modelos de Ecuaciones Estructurales. Se plantean dos alternativas, modelos confirmatorios correspondientes a Métodos Basados en Covarianzas (MBC) y modelos predictivos. De forma razonada se eligen las técnicas predictivas dada la naturaleza exploratoria de la investigación planteada. La segunda parte del capítulo 6 desarrolla el análisis de los resultados de los modelos de medida y modelos estructurales construidos con indicadores formativos y reflectivos y definidos en el capítulo 4. Para ello se validan, sucesivamente, los modelos de medida y los modelos estructurales teniendo en cuenta los valores umbrales de los parámetros estadísticos necesarios para la validación. La quinta parte corresponde al capítulo 7, que desarrolla las conclusiones basándose en los resultados del capítulo 6, analizando los resultados desde el punto de vista de las aportaciones teóricas y prácticas, obteniendo conclusiones para la gestión de las empresas. A continuación, se describen las limitaciones de la investigación y se proponen nuevas líneas de estudio sobre distintos temas que han ido surgiendo a lo largo del trabajo. Finalmente, la bibliografía recoge todas las referencias utilizadas a lo largo de este trabajo. Palabras clave: comprador constante, modelos de continuidad de uso, continuidad en el uso de tecnologías, comercio electrónico, B2C, adopción de tecnologías, modelos de adopción tecnológica, TAM, TPB, IDT, UTAUT, ECT, intención de continuidad, satisfacción, confianza percibida, justicia, emociones, confirmación de expectativas, calidad, valor, PLS. ABSTRACT Information and Communication Technologies in general, but more specifically those related to the Internet in particular, have changed the way in which we communicate, relate to one another, produce, and buy and sell products, reducing the time and shortening the distance between suppliers and consumers. The steady breakthrough of computers, Smartphones and landline and/or wireless broadband has been greatly reflected in its large scale use by both individuals and businesses. Business–to–consumer (B2C) e–commerce reached a volume of 9,114 million Euros in Spain in 2010, representing a 17.4% increase with respect to the figure in 2009. This growth is due in part to two different facts: an increase in the percentage of web users to 65.1% en 2010, 43.1% of whom have acquired products or services through the Internet– which constitutes 1.6 percentage points higher than 2010. On the other hand, the average spending by individual buyers rose to 831€ en 2010, constituting a 10.9% increase with respect to the previous year. If we select buyers according to whether or not they have previously made some type of purchase, we can divide them into two categories: the novice buyer–who first made online purchases in 2010– and the experienced buyer: who also made purchases in 2010, but had done so previously as well. The socio–demographic profile of the novice buyer is that of a young person between 15–24 years of age, with secondary studies, middle to lower–middle class, and a non–university educated student who resides in smaller towns and continues to use payment methods such as cash on delivery (23.9%). In 2010, their average purchase grew to 449€. The more experienced buyer, or someone who has previously made purchases online, has a different demographic profile: highly educated, upper class, resident and worker in larger cities, who exercises a mature behavior when making online purchases due to their experience– this type of buyer frequently uses exclusive channels on the Internet that don’t have an actual store. His or her average purchase doubles that of the novice buyer (with an average purchase of 930€ annually.) That said, the experienced buyers constitute the majority of buyers with an average purchase that doubles that of novice buyers. It is therefore of interest to study the factors that help to predict whether or not a web user will buy another product or use another service on the Internet. The answer to this question has proven not to be so simple. In Spain, the majority of goods and services are still bought in person, with a low amount of purchases being made through means such as the Home Shopping Network, through catalogues or Internet sales. To answer the questions that have been posed here, an investigation has been conducted which takes into consideration various viewpoints: it will begin with a descriptive study from the perspective of the supply and demand that characterizes the B2C e–commerce situation in Spain, focusing on the differences between experienced buyers and novice buyers. Subsequently, there will be an investigation concerning the technology acceptance and continuity of use of models as well as the factors that have an effect on their continuity of use –with a special focus on B2C electronic commerce–, which allows for a theoretic approach to the problem from the perspective of the structural equations being able to reach practical conclusions. This investigation follows the classic structure for a scientific investigation: the subject of the investigation is introduced (Chapter 1), then the state of the B2C e–commerce in Spain is described citing official sources of information (Chapter 2), the theoretical framework and state of the art of technology acceptance and continuity models are developed further (Chapter 3) and the main factors that affect their acceptance and continuity (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 explains the hypothesis behind the investigation and poses the theoretical models that will be confirmed or rejected partially or completely. In Chapter 6, the technical statistics that will be used are described briefly as well as an analysis of the empirical results of the models put forth in Chapter 5. Chapter 7 explains the main conclusions of the investigation, its limitations and proposes new projects. First part of the project, chapter 1, introduces the investigation, justifying it from a theoretical and practical point of view. It is also a brief introduction to the theory of consumer behavior from a standard perspective. Technology acceptance models are presented and then continuity and repurchase models are introduced, which are studied more in depth in Chapter 3. In this chapter, both the main and the secondary objectives are developed through a mind map and a timetable which highlights the milestones of the project. The second part of the project corresponds to Chapters Two, Three and Four. Chapter 2 describes the B2C e–commerce in Spain from the perspective of its demand, citing secondary official sources. A diagnosis concerning the e–commerce sector and the status of its maturity in Spain is taken on, as well as the barriers and alternative methods of e–commerce. Subsequently, the differences between experienced buyers, which are of particular interest to this project, and novice buyers are analyzed, highlighting the differences between their profiles and their main transactions. In order to study both groups, aspects such as the place of purchase, frequency with which online purchases are made, payment methods used and the attitudes of the purchasers concerning making online purchases are taken into consideration. Chapter 3 begins by developing the main concepts concerning consumer behavior theory in order to continue the study of the main existing acceptance models (among others, TPB, TAM, IDT, UTAUT and other models derived from them) – paying special attention to their application in e–commerce–. Subsequently, the models of technology reuse are analyzed (CDT, ECT; Theory of Justice), focusing again specifically on their application in e–commerce. Once the main technology acceptance and reuse models have been studied, Chapter 4 analyzes the main factors that are used in these models: quality, value, factors based on the contradiction of expectations/failure to meet expectations– satisfaction, perceived usefulness– and specific factors pertaining to special situations– for example, after receiving a complaint justice, emotions or confidence. The third part– which appears in Chapter 5– develops the plan for the investigation and the sample selection for the models that have been designed. In the first section of the Chapter, the hypothesis is presented– beginning with general ideas and then becoming more specific, using the detailed factors that were analyzed in Chapter 4– for its later study and validation in Chapter 6– as well as the corresponding statistical factors. Based on the hypothesis and the models and factors that were studied in Chapters 3 and 4, two original theoretical models are defined and organized in order to answer the questions posed in Chapter 1. In the second part of the Chapter, the empirical investigation is designed, defining the following aspects: geographic–temporal scope, type of investigation, nature and setting of the investigation, primary and secondary sources used, data gathering methods, instruments according to the extent of their use and characteristics of the sample used. The results of the project constitute the fourth part of the investigation and are developed in Chapter 6, which begins analyzing the statistical techniques that are based on the Models of Structural Equations. Two alternatives are put forth: confirmatory models which correspond to Methods Based on Covariance (MBC) and predictive models– Methods Based on Components–. In a well–reasoned manner, the predictive techniques are chosen given the explorative nature of the investigation. The second part of Chapter 6 explains the results of the analysis of the measurement models and structural models built by the formative and reflective indicators defined in Chapter 4. In order to do so, the measurement models and the structural models are validated one by one, while keeping in mind the threshold values of the necessary statistic parameters for their validation. The fifth part corresponds to Chapter 7 which explains the conclusions of the study, basing them on the results found in Chapter 6 and analyzing them from the perspective of the theoretical and practical contributions, and consequently obtaining conclusions for business management. The limitations of the investigation are then described and new research lines about various topics that came up during the project are proposed. Lastly, all of the references that were used during the project are listed in a final bibliography. Key Words: constant buyer, repurchase models, continuity of use of technology, e–commerce, B2C, technology acceptance, technology acceptance models, TAM, TPB, IDT, UTAUT, ECT, intention of repurchase, satisfaction, perceived trust/confidence, justice, feelings, the contradiction of expectations, quality, value, PLS.

Estimation of daily global solar radiation from measured temperatures at Cañada de Luque, Córdoba, Argentina

Solar radiation is the most important source of renewable energy in the planet; it's important to solar engineers, designers and architects, and it's also fundamental for efficiently determining irrigation water needs and potential yield of crops, among others. Complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are indispensable. For locations where measured values are not available, several models have been developed to estimate solar radiation. The objective of this paper was to calibrate, validate and compare five representative models to predict global solar radiation, adjusting the empirical coefficients to increase the local applicability and to develop a linear model. All models were based on easily available meteorological variables, without sunshine hours as input, and were used to estimate the daily solar radiation at Cañada de Luque (Córdoba, Argentina). As validation, measured and estimated solar radiation data were analyzed using several statistic coefficients. The results showed that all the analyzed models were robust and accurate (R2 and RMSE values between 0.87 to 0.89 and 2.05 to 2.14, respectively), so global radiation can be estimated properly with easily available meteorological variables when only temperature data are available. Hargreaves-Samani, Allen and Bristow-Campbell models could be used with typical values to estimate solar radiation while Samani and Almorox models should be applied with calibrated coefficients. Although a new linear model presented the smallest R2 value (R2 = 0.87), it could be considered useful for its easy application. The daily global solar radiation values produced for these models can be used to estimate missing daily values, when only temperature data are available, and in hydrologic or agricultural applications.

Reliability and quality in the area of statistical thinking in Engineering

There is remarkable growing concern about the quality control at the time, which has led to the search for methods capable of addressing effectively the reliability analysis as part of the Statistic. Managers, researchers and Engineers must understand that 'statistical thinking' is not just a set of statistical tools. They should start considering 'statistical thinking' from a 'system', which means, developing systems that meet specific statistical tools and other methodologies for an activity. The aim of this article is to encourage them (engineers, researchers and managers) to develop a new way of thinking.