Fixed-term contracts and the duration distribution of unemployment

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts.Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studiesthe implications of such reforms for the duration distribution ofunemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the durationdependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectionaldata drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyzethe chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction offixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased sincesuch reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that forlong spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased sincesuch reform.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

Leasing como alternativa de financiamento de empresas em Cabo Verde - Análise prática de efeitos económicos, financeiros e contabilísticos

Criar mecanismos que produzam e dinamizem o alcance de novos produtos financeiros surge como uma condição necessária para estimular o investimento. Além das condições intrínsecas próprias de uma economia o financiamento é quase que a espinha dorsal para favorecer o desenvolvimento e crescimento económicos. Diversificar as fontes de financiamento para que estas se adaptem à realidade económico-financeira das empresas é essencial, pois não só possibilita o crescimento das empresas nacionais, mas também cria um ambiente de negócios propício ao investimento externo. Convicto da relevância, o presente trabalho tem como escopo uma temática que a nível nacional pouco se tem abordado: trata-se locação financeira que na gíria financeira é entendida por leasing - que de forma sintética se traduz num contrato pelo qual uma das partes concede à outra o gozo temporário de uma coisa contra uma retribuição, e que posteriormente pode ser adquirida, num prazo convencionado, mediante pagamento de um preço determinado ou determinável, nos termos do próprio contrato. O enfoque está em estudar a relevância assumida pelo leasing enquanto fonte de financiamento de médio e longo prazo, no contexto cabo-verdiano, comparativamente à outra fonte – empréstimo bancário de médio e longo prazo. O trabalho reveste-se de uma componente teórica e uma prática. Na componente teórica trata-se do tema no geral, abrangendo uma resenha histórica, o enquadramento legal, das sociedades de locação financeira e dos contratos de locação financeira, tratamento contabilístico, as características específicas que se associam ao tema em apreço e igualmente uma breve análise fiscal. A parte prática desenvolve uma análise comparativa do leasing com o empréstimo bancário de médio e longo prazo onde foram retiradas as conclusões chegadas com o estudo. Resumidamente, pode-se que o leasing é certamente uma das melhores opções de financiamento não só para empresas como igualmente para clientes particulares, sendo, uma opção rápida, simples e vantajosa para o cliente bancário, especialmente se o facto de a propriedade do bem não pertencer ao titular do leasing não causar qualquer incómodo. Create mechanisms that produce and streamline the range of new financial products emerges as a necessary condition to stimulate investment. In addition to its own intrinsic conditions of an economy funding is almost the backbone to promote economic development and growth. Diversify the sources of funding for these adapt to the reality of the economic-financial firms is essential because not only enables the growth of domestic companies, but also creates a business environment conducive to foreign investment. Convinced of the relevance, this work is scoped to a theme that nationally there has been little discussed: it is leasing in slang that is understood by financial leasing - which synthetically translates into a contract whereby one party grants to the another the temporary enjoyment of a thing against retribution, and that can later be acquired within the agreed upon payment of a specified or ascertainable under the contract. The focus is on studying the relevance assumed by leasing as a source of financing medium and long term, the Cape Verdean context, compared to other sources - bank loan of medium and long term. The work has a theoretical and a practical component. In the theoretical part it is the theme in general, covering a historical perspective, the legal framework, the leasing companies and financial leasing contracts, accounting treatment, specific characteristics that are associated to the topic at hand and equally a brief fiscal analysis. The practical part develops a comparative analysis of leasing with bank loan of medium and long term which were withdrawn with the conclusions reached with the study. Briefly, it may be that leasing is certainly one of the best financing options not only by companies as also by private customers, being a fast, simple and profitable for the bank customer, especially if the fact that the ownership of the property does not belong the holder of the lease does not cause any discomfort.

The long term effects of legalizing divorce on children

We estimate the effect of divorce legalization on the long-term well-being ofchildren. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting the different timing of divorcelegalization across European countries. Using European Community Household Paneldata, we compare the adult outcomes of cohorts who were raised in an environmentwhere divorce was banned with cohorts raised after divorce was legalized in the samecountry. We also have control countries where all cohorts were exposed (or notexposed) to divorce as children, thus leading to a difference-in-differences approach. Wefind that women who grew up under legal divorce have lower earnings and income aswell as worse health as adults compared with women who grew up under illegal divorce.These effects are not found for men. We find no effects of divorce legalization onchildren s family formation or dissolution patterns.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2004, January 2005.

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Office of Elder Rights at Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, residential care facilities, elder group homes and assisted living programs. Iowa’s State Long-Term Care Ombudsman’s Office has gone through many changes this past year ranging from staff changes to increase in jurisdiction area. Jeanne Yordi is now the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman, joining this promotion, will be three additional Long-Term Care Ombudsmen to the unit. With additional staff this office hopes to create more public awareness; however, cases and complaints are top priority as this office may begin to fulfill the mandates of the Older Americans Act.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2007, January 2008.

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Office of Elder Rights at Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, residential care facilities, elder group homes and assisted living programs. With the addition of 2 ombudsmen, regional offices were closed and 7 local programs were established in 2007. Local long-term care ombudsmen are becoming more aware of issues that need to be addressed, yet as evidenced by the tables included in this report, the increase in work load has been phenomenal, and is reaching the point of being unmanageable with the current staff.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2006, January 2007

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Office of Elder Rights at Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, residential care facilities, elder group homes and assisted living programs. With an increasing number of complaints for federal fiscal year 2006 this office continues to struggle with fulfilling all of the mandates of the Older Americans Act. Complaint investigations and working with residents and families remain the priority.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2005, January 2006.

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Office of Elder Rights at Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, residential care facilities, elder group homes and assisted living programs. Cases and complaints remain to be this office’s top priority. Facility closures take a tremendous amount of time, and with 1 Long-Term Care Ombudsman per 10,500 beds this office struggles to meet all of the mandates of the Older Americans Act.

Hiring and firing costs, adverse selection and long-term unemployment

In this paper, we present a matching model with adverse selection that explains why flows into and out of unemployment are much lower in Europe compared to North America, while employment-to-employment flows are similar in the two continents. In the model,firms use discretion in terms of whom to fire and, thus, low quality workers are more likely to be dismissed than high quality workers. Moreover, as hiring and firing costs increase, firms find it more costly to hire a bad worker and, thus, they prefer to hire out of the pool of employed job seekers rather than out of the pool of the unemployed, who are more likely to turn out to be 'lemons'. We use microdata for Spain and the U.S. and find that the ratio of the job finding probability of the unemployed to the job finding probability of employed job seekers was smaller in Spain than in the U.S. Furthermore, using U.S. data, we find that the discrimination of the unemployed increased over the 1980's in those states that raised firing costs by introducing exceptions to the employment-at-will doctrine.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Long term debt with hidden borrowing

We consider borrowers with the opportunity to raise funds from a competitive baking sector,that shares information about borrowers, and an alternative hidden lender. We highlight thatthe presence of the hidden lender restricts the contracts that can be obtained from the banking sector and that in equilibrium some borrowers obtain funds from both the banking sector and the (inefficient) hidden lender simultaneously. We further show that as the inefficiency of the hidden lender increases, total welfare decreases. By extending the model to examine a partially hidden lender, we further highlight the key role of information.