Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

(Figure 2) Mean discharge per day (total and baseflow part) of the San Francisco River and daily precipitation at station ECPL (Planta), in 2007

We investigated controls on the water chemistry of a South Ecuadorian cloud forest catchment which is partly pristine, and partly converted to extensive pasture. From April 2007 to May 2008 water samples were taken weekly to biweekly at nine different subcatchments, and were screened for differences in electric conductivity, pH, anion, as well as element composition. A principal component analysis was conducted to reduce dimensionality of the data set and define major factors explaining variation in the data. Three main factors were isolated by a subset of 10 elements (Ca2+, Ce, Gd, K+, Mg2+, Na+, Nd, Rb, Sr, Y), explaining around 90% of the data variation. Land-use was the major factor controlling and changing water chemistry of the subcatchments. A second factor was associated with the concentration of rare earth elements in water, presumably highlighting other anthropogenic influences such as gravel excavation or road construction. Around 12% of the variation was explained by the third component, which was defined by the occurrence of Rb and K and represents the influence of vegetation dynamics on element accumulation and wash-out. Comparison of base- and fast flow concentrations led to the assumption that a significant portion of soil water from around 30 cm depth contributes to storm flow, as revealed by increased rare earth element concentrations in fast flow samples. Our findings demonstrate the utility of multi-tracer principal component analysis to study tropical headwater streams, and emphasize the need for effective land management in cloud forest catchments.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Estimativa da poluição emitida pelos ônibus das linhas troncais da cidade de Uberlândia, MG

The transport of people and goods contributes to the deterioration of the environment in urban areas because of the generation of pollution, such as, air, noise, soil, water or visual degradation. The heavy vehicles that use diesel as fuel are mainly responsible for the emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM), contributing to participation of the transport sector in air pollution. In addition, there is emission of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) whose main component is carbon dioxide (CO2). In most major cities, public transportation is often considered as a less polluting alternative compared to the private vehicle, in view of the potential to reduce, per passenger, the emissions of GHG and air pollutants. The study area was the city of Uberlândia and the objects of study were the trunk lines of the Sistema Integrado de Transporte (SIT). The emissions of NOx, PM and CO2 were estimated through the bottom-up approach which used the route of each bus line and also fuel consumption obtained through simulation from the TSIS software. The software has some result limitations, there are no report about the emission of pollutants by bus, and it is not able to change specifications for the fuel used by the fleet. The results obtained through calculations of pollutants and GHG emission by the bottom-up approach show that the emission is higher when using fuel comsuption obtained in simulation than using distance. For the results considering fuel and distance there was a reduction in emissions comparing ethanol and diesel.

The main criteria of biomass selection for energy generation in Brazil

The principal aim of this paper is to examine the criteria assisting in the selection of biomass for energy generation in Brazil. To reach the aim, this paper adopts case study and survey research methods to collect information from four biomass energy case companies and solicits opinions from experts. The data gathered are analysed in line with a wide range of related data, including selection criteria for biomass and its importance, energy policies in Brazil, availability of biomass feedstock in Brazil and its characteristics, as well as status quo of biomass-based energy in Brazil. The findings of the paper demonstrate that there are ten main criteria in biomass selection for energy generation in Brazil. They comprise geographical conditions, availability of biomass feedstock, demand satisfaction, feedstock costs and oil prices, energy content of biomass feedstock, business and economic growth, CO2 emissions of biomass end-products, effects on soil, water and biodiversity, job creation and local community support, as well as conversion technologies. Furthermore, the research also found that these main criteria cannot be grouped on the basis of sustainability criteria, nor ranked by their importance as there is correlation between each criterion such as a cause and effect relationship, as well as some overlapping areas. Consequently, this means that when selecting biomass more comprehensive consideration is advisable.

The Effects of Organic Matter Amendments and Migratory Waterfowl on Greenhouse Gas and Nutrient Dynamics in Managed Coastal Plain Wetlands

Wetland ecosystems provide many valuable ecosystem services, including carbon (C) storage and improvement of water quality. Yet, restored and managed wetlands are not frequently evaluated for their capacity to function in order to deliver on these values. Specific restoration or management practices designed to meet one set of criteria may yield unrecognized biogeochemical costs or co-benefits. The goal of this dissertation is to improve scientific understanding of how wetland restoration practices and waterfowl habitat management affect critical wetland biogeochemical processes related to greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient cycling. I met this goal through field and laboratory research experiments in which I tested for relationships between management factors and the biogeochemical responses of wetland soil, water, plants and trace gas emissions. Specifically, I quantified: (1) the effect of organic matter amendments on the carbon balance of a restored wetland; (2) the effectiveness of two static chamber designs in measuring methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands; (3) the impact of waterfowl herbivory on the oxygen-sensitive processes of methane emission and coupled nitrification-denitrification; and (4) nitrogen (N) exports caused by prescribed draw down of a waterfowl impoundment.

The potency of CH4 emissions from wetlands raises the concern that widespread restoration and/or creation of freshwater wetlands may present a radiative forcing hazard. Yet data on greenhouse gas emissions from restored wetlands are sparse and there has been little investigation into the greenhouse gas effects of amending wetland soils with organic matter, a recent practice used to improve function of mitigation wetlands in the Eastern United States. I measured trace gas emissions across an organic matter gradient at a restored wetland in the coastal plain of Virginia to test the hypothesis that added C substrate would increase the emission of CH4. I found soils heavily loaded with organic matter emitted significantly more carbon dioxide than those that have received little or no organic matter. CH4 emissions from the wetland were low compared to reference wetlands and contrary to my hypothesis, showed no relationship with the loading rate of added organic matter or total soil C. The addition of moderate amounts of organic matter (< 11.2 kg m-2) to the wetland did not greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions, while the addition of high amounts produced additional carbon dioxide, but not CH4.

I found that the static chambers I used for sampling CH4 in wetlands were highly sensitive to soil disturbance. Temporary compression around chambers during sampling inflated the initial chamber CH4 headspace concentration and/or lead to generation of nonlinear, unreliable flux estimates that had to be discarded. I tested an often-used rubber-gasket sealed static chamber against a water-filled-gutter seal chamber I designed that could be set up and sampled from a distance of 2 m with a remote rod sampling system to reduce soil disturbance. Compared to the conventional design, the remotely-sampled static chambers reduced the chance of detecting inflated initial CH4 concentrations from 66 to 6%, and nearly doubled the proportion of robust linear regressions from 45 to 86%. The new system I developed allows for more accurate and reliable CH4 sampling without costly boardwalk construction.

I explored the relationship between CH4 emissions and aquatic herbivores, which are recognized for imposing top-down control on the structure of wetland ecosystems. The biogeochemical consequences of herbivore-driven disruption of plant growth, and in turn, mediated oxygen transport into wetland sediments, were not previously known. Two growing seasons of herbivore exclusion experiments in a major waterfowl overwintering wetland in the Southeastern U.S. demonstrate that waterfowl herbivory had a strong impact on the oxygen-sensitive processes of CH4 emission and nitrification. Denudation by herbivorous birds increased cumulative CH4 flux by 233% (a mean of 63 g CH4 m-2 y-1) and inhibited coupled nitrification-denitrification, as indicated by nitrate availability and emissions of nitrous oxide. The recognition that large populations of aquatic herbivores may influence the capacity for wetlands to emit greenhouse gases and cycle nitrogen is particularly salient in the context of climate change and nutrient pollution mitigation goals. For example, our results suggest that annual emissions of 23 Gg of CH4 y-1 from ~55,000 ha of publicly owned waterfowl impoundments in the Southeastern U.S. could be tripled by overgrazing.

Hydrologically controlled moist-soil impoundment wetlands provide critical habitat for high densities of migratory bird populations, thus their potential to export nitrogen (N) to downstream waters may contribute to the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems. To investigate the relative importance of N export from these built and managed habitats, I conducted a field study at an impoundment wetland that drains into hypereutrophic Lake Mattamuskeet. I found that prescribed hydrologic drawdowns of the impoundment exported roughly the same amount of N (14 to 22 kg ha-1) as adjacent fertilized agricultural fields (16 to 31 kg ha-1), and contributed approximately one-fifth of total N load (~45 Mg N y-1) to Lake Mattamuskeet. Ironically, the prescribed drawdown regime, designed to maximize waterfowl production in impoundments, may be exacerbating the degradation of habitat quality in the downstream lake. Few studies of wetland N dynamics have targeted impoundments managed to provide wildlife habitat, but a similar phenomenon may occur in some of the 36,000 ha of similarly-managed moist-soil impoundments on National Wildlife Refuges in the southeastern U.S. I suggest early drawdown as a potential method to mitigate impoundment N pollution and estimate it could reduce N export from our study impoundment by more than 70%.

In this dissertation research I found direct relationships between wetland restoration and impoundment management practices, and biogeochemical responses of greenhouse gas emission and nutrient cycling. Elevated soil C at a restored wetland increased CO2 losses even ten years after the organic matter was originally added and intensive herbivory impact on emergent aquatic vegetation resulted in a ~230% increase in CH4 emissions and impaired N cycling and removal. These findings have important implications for the basic understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of wetlands and practical importance for wetland restoration and impoundment management in the face of pressure to mitigate the environmental challenges of global warming and aquatic eutrophication.

Role of Hydrological Process Representation on Erosion, Deposition, and Sediment Yield Estimate

Soil erosion by water is a major driven force causing land degradation. Laboratory experiments, on-site field study, and suspended sediments measurements were major fundamental approaches to study the mechanisms of soil water erosion and to quantify the erosive losses during rain events. The experimental research faces the challenge to extent the result to a wider spatial scale. Soil water erosion modeling provides possible solutions for scaling problems in erosion research, and is of principal importance to better understanding the governing processes of water erosion. However, soil water erosion models were considered to have limited value in practice. Uncertainties in hydrological simulations are among the reasons that hindering the development of water erosion model. Hydrological models gained substantial improvement recently and several water erosion models took advantages of the improvement of hydrological models. It is crucial to know the impact of changes in hydrological processes modeling on soil erosion simulation.

This dissertation work first created an erosion modeling tool (GEOtopSed) that takes advantage of the comprehensive hydrological model (GEOtop). The newly created tool was then tested and evaluated at an experimental watershed. The GEOtopSed model showed its ability to estimate multi-year soil erosion rate with varied hydrological conditions. To investigate the impact of different hydrological representations on soil erosion simulation, a 11-year simulation experiment was conducted for six models with varied configurations. The results were compared at varied temporal and spatial scales to highlight the roles of hydrological feedbacks on erosion. Models with simplified hydrological representations showed agreement with GEOtopSed model on long temporal scale (longer than annual). This result led to an investigation for erosion simulation at different rainfall regimes to check whether models with different hydrological representations have agreement on the soil water erosion responses to the changing climate. Multi-year ensemble simulations with different extreme precipitation scenarios were conducted at seven climate regions. The differences in erosion simulation results showed the influences of hydrological feedbacks which cannot be seen by purely rainfall erosivity method.

Simulating Everglades National Park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.

Monitoring of active layer dynamics at two transects on Svalbard using multi-channel ground-penetrating radar

Multi-channel ground-penetrating radar is used to investigate the late-summer evolution of the thaw depth and the average soil water content of the thawed active layer at a high-arctic continuous permafrost site on Svalbard, Norway. Between mid of August and mid of September 2008, five surveys have been conducted over transect lengths of 130 and 175 m each. The maximum thaw depths range from 1.6 m to 2.0 m, so that they are among the deepest thaw depths recorded for Svalbard so far. The thaw depths increase by approximately 0.2 m between mid of August and beginning of September and subsequently remain constant until mid of September. The thaw rates are approximately constant over the entire length of the transects within the measurement accuracy of about 5 to 10 cm. The average volumetric soil water content of the thawed soil varies between 0.18 and 0.27 along the investigated transects. While the measurements do not show significant changes in soil water content over the first four weeks of the study, strong precipitation causes an increase in average soil water content of up to 0.04 during the last week. These values are in good agreement with evapotranspiration and precipitation rates measured in the vicinity of the the study site. While we cannot provide conclusive reasons for the detected spatial variability of the thaw depth at the study site, our measurements show that thaw depth and average soil water content are not directly correlated. The study demonstrates the potential of multi-channel ground-penetrating radar for mapping thaw depth in permafrost areas. The novel non-invasive technique is particularly useful when the thaw depth exceeds 1.5 m, so that it is hardly accessible by manual probing. In addition, multi-channel ground-penetrating radar holds potential for mapping the latent heat content of the active layer and for estimating weekly to monthly averages of the ground heat flux during the thaw period.

Results of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH in NetCDF format

In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H218O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the d18O in precipitation also shows variations from -4 permil up to 4 permil. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the d18O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for d18O by up to +8 permil:, the simulated d18O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1 permil. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.

ROCK OUTCROPS IN THE CANADIAN SHIELD: AN INVESTIGATION OF CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT FROM SURFACE SOURCES IN FRACTURED ROCK AQUIFERS

Flow, recharge and transport dynamics in fractured rock aquifers with low lying rock outcrops is a largely unexplored area of study in hydrogeology. The purpose of this thesis is to examine these topics in an agricultural area in Eastern Ontario. The study consists of a regional scale groundwater quality study, an infiltration experiment that considers bacteria transport from the ground surface to a well, and a numerical modelling study that tests the parameters that affect surface infiltration of a tracer from a rock outcrop to a deeper horizontal fracture. In the water quality study, approximately 65% of the samples contained total coliform, 16% contained E. coli, and 1% contained nitrate-N at greater than 5 mg/L. Occurrence of E. coli increased when considering seasonality, where wells were drilled on rock outcrops, and for shallow well intervals. Nitrate-N did not occur above the Guidelines for Canadian Drinking Water Quality (Health Canada, 2012) of 10 mg/L. Rapid arrival times were observed in the infiltration study for both the microspheres (30 minutes) and a dye tracer (45 minutes) in a well approximately 6.0 m in horizontal and 2.8 m in vertical distance from the tracer source. Transport velocities were approximately 38.9 m/day for the dye tracer and 115.2 m/day for the colloidal tracer. Results of the model runs indicate that overburden can provide an effective protective layer to transport in fractures, that high groundwater velocities occur in larger fracture apertures and higher gradients dilute tracer concentrations, and that lower groundwater velocities occur with smaller fracture apertures and lower gradients result in elevated tracer concentrations. Lower rainfall rates, larger fracture apertures, early tracer time, larger gradients, and lower water levels maintained unsaturated conditions for longer time periods such that tracer transport was delayed until saturated conditions were attained. The overall heterogeneity of this aquifer environment creates a source water protection conundrum where the water quality is generally good, while transport can occur very quickly in proximity to rock outcrops and in areas with limited overburden.

Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

Maintaining legacy data: saving Belfast Harbour (UK) tide-gauge data (1902-2010)

Tide gauge data are identified as legacy data given the radical transition between observation method and required output format associated with tide gauges over the 20th-century. Observed water level variation through tide-gauge records is regarded as the only significant basis for determining recent historical variation (decade to century) in mean sea-level and storm surge. There are limited tide gauge records that cover the 20th century, such that the Belfast (UK) Harbour tide gauge would be a strategic long-term (110 years) record, if the full paper-based records (marigrams) were digitally restructured to allow for consistent data analysis. This paper presents the methodology of extracting a consistent time series of observed water levels from the 5 different Belfast Harbour tide gauges’ positions/machine types, starting late 1901. Tide-gauge data was digitally retrieved from the original analogue (daily) records by scanning the marigrams and then extracting the sequential tidal elevations with graph-line seeking software (Ungraph™). This automation of signal extraction allowed the full Belfast series to be retrieved quickly, relative to any manual x–y digitisation of the signal. Restructuring variably lengthed tidal data sets to a consistent daily, monthly and annual file format was undertaken by project-developed software: Merge&Convert and MergeHYD allow consistent water level sampling both at 60 min (past standard) and 10 min intervals, the latter enhancing surge measurement. Belfast tide-gauge data have been rectified, validated and quality controlled (IOC 2006 standards). The result is a consistent annual-based legacy data series for Belfast Harbour that includes over 2 million tidal-level data observations.

Réponse de la végétation riveraine et littorale aux variations forcées de niveaux d’eau lacustres dans les Laurentides méridionales

La végétation riveraine et littorale de l’est du Canada a été sévèrement altérée par la drave et plusieurs barrages lacustres subsistent, mais leurs effets et ceux de leur retrait sont peu documentés. Cette étude visait à: i) mesurer les changements de la structure et de la composition végétale des zones riveraines et littorales en fonction de l’élévation par rapport au plan d’eau, ii) évaluer le temps de retour de la végétation à son état de référence naturel suite au retrait de barrages et iii) déterminer les facteurs régissant les réponses de la végétation à ces variations de niveaux d’eau. La structure et la composition végétale suite à la restauration d’un barrage a été comparée sur deux lacs : un témoin et un comprenant quatre bassins présentant un gradient d’influence du barrage. Suite au retrait de barrage, la végétation a été examinée sur quatre lacs, dont un témoin. Les principaux facteurs qui influençaient la végétation riveraine et littorale en présence d’un barrage étaient l’élévation actuelle par rapport au lac et l’ampleur de l’influence du barrage. Suite à un démantèlement de barrage, les principaux facteurs d’influence étaient l’élévation par rapport au rivage et le nombre d’années depuis le retrait de barrage. En présence d’un barrage, la végétation riveraine était caractérisée par la transformation de hautes terres en forêt humide riveraine qui partageait des caractéristiques avec le témoin. À partir de 1 m d’élévation, la végétation était caractérisée par une forêt sèche. Dans les premières années suivant le retrait de barrage, la végétation littorale était composée d’herbiers submergés mixtes à faible densité avec une forte diversité spécifique près du rivage. La structure et la composition végétale étaient similaires au témoin après 16 ans. Il n’y avait pas d’évidence que les communautés végétales déviaient de leur trajectoire successionnelle naturelle sous l’influence des nouvelles conditions environnementales.

Modélisation de l'évolution hydroclimatique des flux et stocks d'eau verte et d'eau bleue du bassin versant de la Garonne

La gestion intégrée de la ressource en eau implique de distinguer les parcours de l’eau qui sont accessibles aux sociétés de ceux qui ne le sont pas. Les cheminements de l’eau sont nombreux et fortement variables d’un lieu à l’autre. Il est possible de simplifier cette question en s’attardant plutôt aux deux destinations de l’eau. L’eau bleue forme les réserves et les flux dans l’hydrosystème : cours d’eau, nappes et écoulements souterrains. L’eau verte est le flux invisible de vapeur d’eau qui rejoint l’atmosphère. Elle inclut l’eau consommée par les plantes et l’eau dans les sols. Or, un grand nombre d’études ne portent que sur un seul type d’eau bleue, en ne s’intéressant généralement qu’au devenir des débits ou, plus rarement, à la recharge des nappes. Le portrait global est alors manquant. Dans un même temps, les changements climatiques viennent impacter ce cheminement de l’eau en faisant varier de manière distincte les différents composants de cycle hydrologique. L’étude réalisée ici utilise l’outil de modélisation SWAT afin de réaliser le suivi de toutes les composantes du cycle hydrologique et de quantifier l’impact des changements climatiques sur l’hydrosystème du bassin versant de la Garonne. Une première partie du travail a permis d’affiner la mise en place du modèle pour répondre au mieux à la problématique posée. Un soin particulier a été apporté à l’utilisation de données météorologiques sur grille (SAFRAN) ainsi qu’à la prise en compte de la neige sur les reliefs. Le calage des paramètres du modèle a été testé dans un contexte differential split sampling, en calant puis validant sur des années contrastées en terme climatique afin d’appréhender la robustesse de la simulation dans un contexte de changements climatiques. Cette étape a permis une amélioration substantielle des performances sur la période de calage (2000-2010) ainsi que la mise en évidence de la stabilité du modèle face aux changements climatiques. Par suite, des simulations sur une période d’un siècle (1960-2050) ont été produites puis analysées en deux phases : i) La période passée (1960-2000), basée sur les observations climatiques, a servi de période de validation à long terme du modèle sur la simulation des débits, avec de très bonnes performances. L’analyse des différents composants hydrologiques met en évidence un impact fort sur les flux et stocks d’eau verte, avec une diminution de la teneur en eau des sols et une augmentation importante de l’évapotranspiration. Les composantes de l’eau bleue sont principalement perturbées au niveau du stock de neige et des débits qui présentent tous les deux une baisse substantielle. ii) Des projections hydrologiques ont été réalisées (2010-2050) en sélectionnant une gamme de scénarios et de modèles climatiques issus d’une mise à l’échelle dynamique. L’analyse de simulation vient en bonne part confirmer les conclusions tirées de la période passée : un impact important sur l’eau verte, avec toujours une baisse de la teneur en eau des sols et une augmentation de l’évapotranspiration potentielle. Les simulations montrent que la teneur en eau des sols pendant la période estivale est telle qu’elle en vient à réduire les flux d’évapotranspiration réelle, mettant en évidence le possible déficit futur des stocks d’eau verte. En outre, si l’analyse des composantes de l’eau bleue montre toujours une diminution significative du stock de neige, les débits semblent cette fois en hausse pendant l’automne et l’hiver. Ces résultats sont un signe de l’«accélération» des composantes d’eau bleue de surface, probablement en relation avec l’augmentation des évènements extrêmes de précipitation. Ce travail a permis de réaliser une analyse des variations de la plupart des composantes du cycle hydrologique à l’échelle d’un bassin versant, confirmant l’importance de prendre en compte toutes ces composantes pour évaluer l’impact des changements climatiques et plus largement des changements environnementaux sur la ressource en eau.