982 resultados para shoot and root biomass
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Horticultura) - FCA
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This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Botânica) - IBB
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Algumas espécies nativas produzem sementes com baixa porcentagem de germinação e, na maioria dos casos, dormência que pode dificultar o aparecimento de novos indivíduos, por meio da propagação sexuada. A Maclura tinctoria tem sido considerada como ameaçada de extinção devido ao uso indiscriminado de sua madeira e à baixa taxa de germinação de suas sementes. Nesse contexto, o objetivo deste estudo foi estabelecer uma metodologia de propagação in vitro para a espécie. Combinações de ANA + BAP, diferentes concentrações de GA3 e combinações de AIB + carvão ativado foram avaliadas na indução de brotações, alongamento caulinar e indução de enraizamento, respectivamente. Os resultados indicaram que a máxima formação de brotações foi obtida quando 5,37 mM NAA + 4,45 mM BAP foram utilizados. O crescimento das brotações foi observado com 5,48 mM GA3. Para a formação de raízes, foi indicado o uso do meio WPM, com pH ajustado para 7,0, suplementado com 23,62 mM AIB e 4,7 g L-1 de carvão ativado. O uso de sombrite 70% por sete dias, seguido da utilização de sombrite 50 e 30%, também por sete dias cada, promoveu 97% de sobrevivência de plantas.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Proteção de Plantas) - FCA
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Estudos com inseticidas botânicos vêm ganhando espaço como alternativa no Manejo Integrado de Pragas. Conduziu-se este trabalho com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de extratos aquosos de folhas e frutos da espécie Clibadium sylvestre, e folhas e raízes da espécie Derris amazonica nas concentrações 0, 1, 2, 4 e 8%, no controle do pulgão Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Foram conduzidos quatro ensaios, dois testes de preferência sem chance de escolha e dois testes de preferência com chance de escolha, totalizando nove tratamentos com cinco repetições. Foi realizada a triagem fitoquímica das folhas e dos frutos da espécie C. sylvestre e das folhas e das raízes de D. amazonica. As avaliações de mortalidade, número de ninfas e índice de deterrência dos insetos, foram realizadas 24, 48 e 72 horas após a aplicação dos extratos. Os extratos aquosos do fruto do C. sylvestre nas concentrações testadas apresentaram maior mortalidade frente à testemunha, na análise do número de ninfas, o extrato aquoso do fruto do C. sylvestre a 8% apresentou maior eficiência que os demais tratamentos. O extrato da folha de D. amazonica na concentração 1% apresentou maior mortalidade e menor número de ninfas que os demais tratamentos. Os extratos da raiz de D. amazonica aumentaram a mortalidade em todas as concentrações testadas e a concentração 8% da raiz de D. amazonica, apresentou menor número de ninfas. Todos os tratamentos testados apresentaram efeito deterrente. O período de 72 horas foi o que apresentou maior efeito dos extratos, das duas espécies estudadas sobre os insetos.
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The aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the Fonseca Anamnestic Index (IAF), used to assess the severity of temporomandibular disorders, applied to Brazilian women. We used a probabilistic sampling design. The participants were 700 women over 18 years of age, living in the city of Araraquara (SP). The IAF questionnaire was applied by telephone interviews. We conducted Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) using Chi-Square Over Degrees of Freedom (χ2/df), Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI), and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) as goodness of fit indices. We calculated the convergent validity, the average variance extracted (AVE) and the composite reliability (CR). Internal consistency was assessed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient (α).The factorial weights of questions 8 and 10 were below the adequate values. Thus, we refined the original model and these questions were excluded. The resulting factorial model showed appropriate goodness of fit to the sample (χ2/df = 3.319, CFI = 0.978, TLI = 0.967, RMSEA = 0.058). The convergent validity (AVE = 0.513, CR = 0.878) and internal consistency (α = 0.745) were adequate. The reduced IAF version showed adequate validity and reliability in a sample of Brazilian women.
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)