Long-Term and Seasonal Variations in CO2: Linkages to Catchment Alkalinity Generation

As atmospheric emissions of S have declined in the Northern Hemisphere, there has been an expectation of increased pH and alkalinity in streams believed to have been acidified by excess S and N. Many streams and lakes have not recovered. Evidence from East Bear Brook in Maine, USA and modelling with the groundwater acid-base model MAGIC (Cosby et al. 1985a,b) indicate that seasonal and yearly variations in soil PCO2 are adequate to enhance or even reverse acid-base (alkalinity) changes anticipated from modest decreases of SO4 in surface waters. Alkalinity is generated in the soil by exchange of H+ from dissociation of H2CO3, which in turn is derived from the dissolving of soil CO2. The variation in soil PCO2 produces an alkalinity variation of up to 15 mu eq L-1 in stream water. Detecting and relating increases in alkalinity to decreases in stream SO4 are significantly more difficult in the short term because of this effect. For example, modelled alkalinity recovery at Bear Brook due to a decline of 20 mu eq SO4 L-1 in soil solution is compensated by a decline from 0.4 to 0.2% for soil air PCO2. This compensation ability decays over time as base saturation declines. Variable PCO2 has less effect in more acidic soils. Short-term decreases of PCO2 below the long-term average value produce short-term decreases in alkalinity, whereas short-term increases in PCO2 produce shortterm alkalization. Trend analysis for detecting recovery of streams and lakes from acidification after reduced atmospheric emissions will require a longer monitoring period for statistical significance than previously appreciated.

Spatial Patterns in Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Physical forcing and biological response within the California Current System (CCS) are highly variable over a wide range of scales. Satellite remote sensing offers the only feasible means of quantifying this variability over the full extent of the CCS. Using six years (1997-2003) of daily SST and chlorophyll imagery, we map the spatial dependence of dominant temporal variability at resolutions sufficient to identify recurrent mesoscale circulation and local pattern associated with coastal topography. Here we describe mean seasonal cycles and interannual variation; intraseasonal variability is left to a companion paper ( K. R. Legaard and A. C. Thomas, manuscript in preparation, 2006). Coastal upwelling dictates seasonality along north-central California, where weak cycles of SST fluctuate between spring minima and late summer maxima and chlorophyll peaks in early summer. Off northern California, chlorophyll maxima are bounded offshore by the seasonally recurrent upwelling jet. Seasonal cycles differ across higher latitudes and in the midlatitude Southern California Bight, where upwelling winds are less vigorous and/or persistent. Seasonality along south-central Baja is strongly affected by processes other than upwelling, despite year-round upwelling-favorable winds. Interannual variation is generally dominated by El Nino and La Nina conditions. Interannual SST variance is greatest along south-central Baja, although interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total variance inshore along southern Oregon and much of California. Patterns of interannual chlorophyll variance are consistent with dominant forcing through the widespread depression and elevation of the nutricline during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total chlorophyll variance offshore.

Using plant functional traits and phylogenies to understand patterns of plant community assembly in a seasonal tropical forest in Lao PDR

Plant functional traits reflect different evolutionary responses to environmental variation, and among extant species determine the outcomes of interactions between plants and their environment, including other plant species. Thus, combining phylogenetic and trait-based information can be a powerful approach for understanding community assembly processes across a range of spatial scales. We used this approach to investigate tree community composition at Phou Khao Khouay National Park (18°14’-18°32’N; 102°38’- 102°59’E), Laos, where several distinct forest types occur in close proximity. The aim of our study was to examine patterns of plant community assembly across the strong environmental gradients evident at our site. We hypothesized that differences in tree community composition were being driven by an underlying gradient in soil conditions. Thus, we predicted that environmental filtering would predominate at the site and that the filtering would be strongest on sandier soil with low pH, as these are the conditions least favorable to plant growth. We surveyed eleven 0.25 ha (50x50 m) plots for all trees above 10 cm dbh (1221 individual trees, including 47 families, 70 genera and 123 species) and sampled soils in each plot. For each species in the community, we measured 11 commonly studied plant functional traits covering both the leaf and wood economic spectrum traits and we reconstructed a phylogenetic tree for 115 of the species in the community using rbcL and matK sequences downloaded from Genebank (other species were not available). Finally we compared the distribution of trait values and species at two scales (among plots and 10x10m subplots) to examine trait and phylogenetic community structures. Although there was strong evidence that an underlying soil gradient was determining patterns of species composition at the site, our results did not support the hypothesis that the environmental filtering dominated community assembly processes. For the measured plant functional traits there was no consistent pattern of trait dispersion across the site, either when traits were considered individually or when combined in a multivariate analysis. However, there was a significant correlation between the degree of phylogenetic dispersion and the first principle component axis (PCA1) for the soil parameters.Moreover, the more phylogenetically clustered plots were on sandier soils with lower pH. Hence, we suggest that the community assembly processes across our sitemay reflect the influence ofmore conserved traits that we did not measure. Nevertheless, our results are equivocal and other interpretations are possible. Our study illustrates some difficulties in combining trait and phylogenetic approaches that may result from the complexities of integrating spatial and evolutionary processes that vary at different scales.

Crop Yield Responses to Temperature Fluctuations in 19th Century Finland: Provincial Variation in Relation to Climate and Tree Rings

Past agricultural responses to climate variability can helps us to better understand the current and future impacts of climate change on agricultural production. We studied rye (Secale cereale) and barley (Hordeum vulgare) yield responses to temperature fluctuations in Finland during the period 1861–1913. Our analyses demonstrate the high sensitivity of non-industrialised northern agriculture to temperature anomalies. We found evidence of a strong relationship between monthly and seasonal mean temperatures and crop yields. In particular, high spring temperatures were associated with higher yields. Additionally, we tested temperature-sensitive tree-ring series for their value in indicating previous agricultural outputs. The results imply that tree-ring proxies (in particular, maximum latewood density) can provide novel material for studies of historical periods and locations where instrumentally measured climate and harvest data are not available.

Seasonal aspects of leukemia

An investigation of (a) month/season-of-birth as a risk factor and (b) month/season-of-treatment initation as a prognostic factor in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children, 0-15 years of age, was conducted. The study population used was that of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute and included children diagnosed and treated for ALL from 1973-1986. Two separate sets of analyses using different exclusion criteria led to similar results. Specifically, the inability to reject the null hypothesis of no significant difference in the variation of monthly/seasonal incidence rates among children residing within the 10 SEER sites using either cosinor analysis or one-way analysis of variance. No association was established between month/season of treatment initiation and survival in ALL among children using either Kaplan-Meier or cosinor analysis. In separate Kaplan-Meier analyses, age, gender, and treatment type were each found to be significant univariate prognostic factors for survival, however. ^

TEMPORAL VARIATION OF ACUTE AND LUNG TUMORIGENIC EFFECTS OF URETHAN ON STRAIN A MICE (CHRONOBIOLOGY, CARCINOGENICITY, ANESTHETIC, DNA SYNTHESIS)

The effect of circadian variation on susceptibility to the chemical induction of cancer was assessed utilizing the mouse pulmonary adenoma bioassay. Different groups of male A/Jax mice (standardized for rhythm analysis with light from 0600-1800 and darkness from 1800-0600) each received a single timed i.p. injection of urethan (Bioassay I: 0.25, 0.5 or 1.0 mg/g body weight; Bioassay II: 0.75, 1.0, 1.25 mg/g body weight; Bioassay III: 1.0 mg/g body weight) at the following times, 0100, 0500, 0900, 1300, 1700 or 2100. Mice were sacrificed 16 weeks after treatment. The tumorigenic effect of urethan on the lungs (lung surface pulmonary adenomas) was assessed. In addition, mortality, body weight changes and the anesthetic effect of urethan were determined. The rhythmic pattern of DNA synthesis in the lung and the comparative rhythmic pattern in the liver were assessed using a tritiated thymidine incorporation assay.^ In the first adenoma bioassay, the lung tumorigenic response in mice given the highest dose of urethan exhibited a 12-hour rhythm with a major peak in tumor yield at 0100 and a secondary peak at 1300; reduced yields occurred at 0500-0900 and 2100. The second adenoma bioassay, studied at a 6-month seasonal divergence in time from the first study showed a peak at 1300 but not at 0100. The mice from the third adenoma bioassay, studied at an 11-month seasonal divergence in time from the 2nd study showed an increase in tumor yield during the rest cycle (0900-1700).^ This study found a definite suggestion of a low amplitude rhythm in susceptibility to urethan induced effects. The acute toxic and pharmacological effects correlated to exhibit a maximal effect during dark hours (activity span). This rhythmicity might be explained by an alteration in the amplitude of hepatic metabolism. The chronic carcinogenic response exhibited an opposite pattern. Urethan induced tumor response was greater during daylight hours (rest cycle). This correlated with the slight elevation in DNA synthetic activity found in the lung and liver which might be responsible for the increase in carcinogenic response. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Warming and acidification experiment on early life-stage F. vesiculosus under natural fluctuation and seasonal variations (spring 2013 - 2014)

Genetic diversity of baltic F. vesiculosus is low compared to other populations which might jeopardize their potential for adaptation to climate change. Especially the early life-stage F. vesiculosus may be threaten by ocean warming and acidification. To test this, we exposed F. vesiculosus germlings to warming and acidification in the near-natural scenario in the "Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms" maintaining the natural variation of the Kiel Fjord, Germany (54°27 'N, 10°11 'W) in all seasons (spring 2013 - 2014). Warming was simulated by using a delta treatment adding 5 °C and by increasing pCO2 at 1000 µatm. Warming positively affected germlings' growth in spring and in summer but decreased non-photochemical quenching in spring and survival in summer. Acidified conditions showed much weaker effects than warming. The high genotypic variation in stress sensitivity as well as the enhanced survival at high diversity levels indicate higher potential for adaptation for genetically diverse populations. We conclude that the combination of stressors and season determines the sensitivity to environmental stress and that genetic variation is crucial for the adaptation to climate change stress.

Seasonal evolution of soil respiration in a mixed forestry plantation of walnuts (Juglans × intermedia Carr.) and alders (Alnus cordata (Loisel.) Duby) in Domaine de Restinclières (France)

The ecological intensification of crops is proposed as a solution to the growing demand of agricultural and forest resources, in opposition to intensive monocultures. The introduction of mixed cultures as mixtures between nitrogen fixing species and non nitrogen fixing species intended to increase crop yield as a result of an improvement of the available nitrogen and phosphorus in soil. Relationship between crops have received little attention despite the wide range of advantages that confers species diversity to these systems, such as increased productivity, resilience to disruption and ecological sustainability. Forests and forestry plantations can develop an important role in storing carbon in their tissues, especially in wood which become into durable product. A simplifying parameter to analyze the amount allocated carbon by plantation is the TBCA (total belowground carbon allocation), whereby, for short periods and mature plantations, is admitted as the subtraction between soil carbon efflux and litterfall. Soil respiration depends on a wide range of factors, such as soil temperature and soil water content, soil fertility, presence and type of vegetation, among others. The studied orchard is a mixed forestry plantation of hybrid walnuts(Juglans × intermedia Carr.) for wood and alders (Alnus cordata (Loisel.) Duby.), a nitrogen fixing specie through the actinomycete Frankia alni ((Woronin, 1866) Von Tubeuf 1895). The study area is sited at Restinclières, a green area near Montpellier (South of France). In the present work, soil respiration varied greatly throughout the year, mainly influenced by soil temperature. Soil water content did not significantly influence the response of soil respiration as it was constant during the measurement period and under no water stress conditions. Distance between nearest walnut and measurement was also a highly influential factor in soil respiration. Generally there was a decreasing trend in soil respiration when the distance to the nearest tree increased. It was also analyzed the response of soil respiration according to alder presence and fertilizer management (50 kg N·ha-1·año-1 from 1999 to 2010). None of these treatments significantly influenced soil respiration, although previous studies noticed an inhibition in rates of soil respiration under fertilized conditions and high rates of available nitrogen. However, treatments without fertilization and without alder presence obtained higher respiration rates in those cases with significant differences. The lack of significant differences between treatments may be due to the high coefficient of variation experienced by soil respiration measurements. Finally an asynchronous fluctuation was observed between soil respiration and litterfall during senescence period. This is possibly due to the slowdown in the emission of exudates by roots during senescence period, which are largely related to microbial activity.

Regional and seasonal patterns of litterfall in tropical South America

The production of aboveground soft tissue represents an important share of total net primary production in tropical rain forests. Here we draw from a large number of published and unpublished datasets (n = 81 sites) to assess the determinants of litterfall variation across South American tropical forests. We show that across old-growth tropical rainforests, litterfall averages 8.61±1.91Mgha?1 yr?1 (mean±standard deviation, in dry mass units). Secondary forests have a lower annual litterfall than old-growth tropical forests with a mean of 8.01±3.41Mgha?1 yr?1. Annual litterfall shows no significant variation with total annual rainfall, either globally or within forest types. It does not vary consistently with soil type, except in the poorest soils (white sand soils), where litterfall is significantly lower than in other soil types (5.42±1.91Mgha?1 yr?1). We also study the determinants of litterfall seasonality, and find that it does not depend on annual rainfall or on soil type. However, litterfall seasonality is significantly positively correlated with rainfall seasonality. Finally, we assess how much carbon is stored in reproductive organs relative to photosynthetic organs. Mean leaf fall is 5.74±1.83Mgha?1 yr?1 (71% of total litterfall). Mean allocation into reproductive organs is 0.69±0.40Mgha?1 yr?1 (9% of total litterfall). The investment into reproductive organs divided by leaf litterfall increases with soil fertility, suggesting that on poor soils, the allocation to photosynthetic organs is prioritized over that to reproduction. Finally, we discuss the ecological and biogeochemical implications of these results.

Sinking rates of particles measured from deployments in the Atlantic Ocean based on seasonal data

The flux of materials to the deep sea is dominated by larger, organic-rich particles with sinking rates varying between a few meters and several hundred meters per day. Mineral ballast may regulate the transfer of organic matter and other components by determining the sinking rates, e.g. via particle density. We calculated particle sinking rates from mass flux patterns and alkenone measurements applying the results of sediment trap experiments from the Atlantic Ocean. We have indication for higher particle sinking rates in carbonate-dominated production systems when considering both regional and seasonal data. During a summer coccolithophorid bloom in the Cape Blanc coastal upwelling off Mauritania, particle sinking rates reached almost 570 m per day, most probably due the fast sedimentation of densely packed zooplankton fecal pellets, which transport high amounts of organic carbon associated with coccoliths to the deep ocean despite rather low production. During the recurring winter-spring blooms off NW Africa and in opal-rich production systems of the Southern Ocean, sinking rates of larger particles, most probably diatom aggregates, showed a tendency to lower values. However, there is no straightforward relationship between carbonate content and particle sinking rates. This could be due to the unknown composition of carbonate and/or the influence of particle size and shape on sinking rates. It also remains noticeable that the highest sinking rates occurred in dust-rich ocean regions off NW Africa, but this issue deserves further detailed field and laboratory investigations. We obtained increasing sinking rates with depth. By using a seven-compartment biogeochemical model, it was shown that the deep ocean organic carbon flux at a mesotrophic sediment trap site off Cape Blanc can be captured fairly well using seasonal variable particle sinking rates. Our model provides a total organic carbon flux of 0.29 Tg per year down to 3000 m off the NW African upwelling region between 5 and 35° N. Simple parameterisations of remineralisation and sinking rates in such models, however, limit their capability in reproducing the flux variation in the water column.

Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Seasonal changes in the diel surfacing behaviour of the bimodally respiring turtle Rheodytes leukops

The purpose of this study was to determine whether a relationship existed between the diel surfacing trends of the bimodally respiring freshwater turtle Rheodytes leukops and daily fluctuations in specific biotic and abiotic factors: The, diel surfacing behaviour of adult R. leukops was recorded over four consecutive seasons (Austral autumn 2000 - summer 2001) within Marlborough Creek, central Queensland, Australia, using pressure-sensitive time-depth recorders. Additionally, diurnal variations in water temperature and aquatic Po-2 level, as well as the turtle's behavioural state (i.e., active versus resting), were monitored. In autumn and summer, surfacing frequency increased significantly during the daylight hours, with peak levels normally occurring around dawn (0500-0700) and. dusk (1700-1900). However, no consistent diel surfacing trend was recorded, for the turtles in winter or spring, owing to considerable variation among individual R. leukops. Diurnal surfacing trends recorded for R. leukops in, autumn and summer are attributed to periods of increased activity (possibly associated with foraging) during the daylight hours and not to daily variations in water temperature or aquatic Po-2 level. Turtles generally remained at a depth greater than 1 m throughout the day, where the effect of diel fluctuations in water temperature, (

Selection of species and provenances for low-rainfall areas: physiological responses of Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia to seasonal conditions in subtropical Queensland

Responses of stomatal conductance (g(s)) and net photosynthesis (A) to changes in soil water availability, photosynthetic photon flux density (Q), air temperature (1) and leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficit (D) were investigated in 4-year-old trees of a dry inland provenance of Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely, and two dry inland provenances (Coominglah and Hungry Hills) and a humid coastal provenance (Wolvi) of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. between April 2001 and April 2002 in southeast Queensland, Australia. There were minimal differences in A, g, and water relations variables among the coastal and inland provenances of E. cloeziana but large differences between E. argophloia and E. cloeziana. E. argophloia and to a lesser extent the Hungry Hills (inland) provenance of E. cloeziana maintained relatively higher pre-dawn water potential (psi(pd)) during the dry season suggesting possible access to water at depth. Simple phenomenological models of stomatal conductance as a function of Q, T and D explained 60% of variation in gs in E. cloeziana and more than 75% in E. argophloia, when seasonal effect was incorporated in the model. A Ball-Berry model for net photosynthesis explained between 70 and 80% of observed variation in A in both species. These results have implications in matching the dry and humid provenances of E. cloeziana and E. argophloia to suitable sites in subtropical environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Temporal variation in habitat use by nekton in a subtropical estuarine system

Utilisation by fish of different estuarine habitats is known to vary at many different temporal scales, however no study to date has examined how utilisation varies at all the relevant times scales simultaneously. Here, we compare the utilisation by fish of sandy, intertidal foreshore habitats in a subtropical estuary at four temporal scales: between major spawning periods (spring/ summer and winter), among months within spawning periods, between the full and new moon each month, and between night and day within those lunar phases. Comparisons of assemblage composition, abundance of individuals and of fish in seven different,ecological guilds' were used to identify the temporal scales at which fish varied their use of unvegetated sandy habitats in the lower Noosa Estuary, Queensland, Australia. Fish assemblages were sampled with a seine net at three different regions. The most numerically dominant species caught were southern herring (Herklotsichthys castelnaui: Clupeidae), sand whiting (Sillago ciliata: Sillaginidae), weeping toadfish (Torquigener pleurogramma: Tetraodomidae), and silver biddy (Gerres subfasciatus: Gerreidae). Considerable variation at a range of temporal scales from short term (day versus night) to longer term (spawning periods) was detected for all but one of the variables examined. The clearest patterns were observed for diurnal effects, where generally abundance was greater at night than during the day. There were also strong lunar effects, although there were no consistent patterns between full moon and new moon periods. Significant differences among months within spawning periods were more common than differences between the actual spawning periods. The results clearly indicate that utilisation of sandy, unvegetated estuarine habitats is very dynamic and highly variable in space and time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.