The Data Mining applied for the prediction of highway roughness due to overloaded trucks

Currently, the quality of the Indonesian national road network is inadequate due to several constraints, including overcapacity and overloaded trucks. The high deterioration rate of the road infrastructure in developing countries along with major budgetary restrictions and high growth in traffic have led to an emerging need for improving the performance of the highway maintenance system. However, the high number of intervening factors and their complex effects require advanced tools to successfully solve this problem. The high learning capabilities of Data Mining (DM) are a powerful solution to this problem. In the past, these tools have been successfully applied to solve complex and multi-dimensional problems in various scientific fields. Therefore, it is expected that DM can be used to analyze the large amount of data regarding the pavement and traffic, identify the relationship between variables, and provide information regarding the prediction of the data. In this paper, we present a new approach to predict the International Roughness Index (IRI) of pavement based on DM techniques. DM was used to analyze the initial IRI data, including age, Equivalent Single Axle Load (ESAL), crack, potholes, rutting, and long cracks. This model was developed and verified using data from an Integrated Indonesia Road Management System (IIRMS) that was measured with the National Association of Australian State Road Authorities (NAASRA) roughness meter. The results of the proposed approach are compared with the IIRMS analytical model adapted to the IRI, and the advantages of the new approach are highlighted. We show that the novel data-driven model is able to learn (with high accuracy) the complex relationships between the IRI and the contributing factors of overloaded trucks

The seasonal diet of Aequidens tetramerus (Cichlidae) in a small forest stream in the Machado River basin, Rondônia, Brazil

Trophic relationships in fish communities are affected by the availability of resources, which in turn is affected by spatial and temporal variations throughout the year. The aims of this study were to characterize the diet of A. tetramerus in a streamlet in the north of Brazil and compare its composition in different hydrological seasons (wet and dry seasons). Collections were performed every two months from October 2011 to September 2012 with the aid of seine nets, hand net and fishing traps in the streamlet located in the Machado River drainage basin in the Rondônia state. Most of the specimens collected were quite small (< 40 mm) and had empty stomachs. Our results showed that A. tetramerus feeds on a wide variety of items of plant origin, such as algae, seeds and leaves, as well as items of animal origin, including bryozoans, crustaceans, fish scales, terrestrial insects and detritus. The data also indicated higher consumption of aquatic insects than other food items, suggesting a primarily insect-based diet. Items of plant and allochthonous origin were consumed more in the wet season than in the dry season, but there were no seasonal differences in the consumption of animal and autochthonous items.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Development of computational and experimental methods for biomass composition and evaluation of its impact in genome-scale models prediction

The use of genome-scale metabolic models has been rapidly increasing in fields such as metabolic engineering. An important part of a metabolic model is the biomass equation since this reaction will ultimately determine the predictive capacity of the model in terms of essentiality and flux distributions. Thus, in order to obtain a reliable metabolic model the biomass precursors and their coefficients must be as precise as possible. Ideally, determination of the biomass composition would be performed experimentally, but when no experimental data are available this is established by approximation to closely related organisms. Computational methods however, can extract some information from the genome such as amino acid and nucleotide compositions. The main objectives of this study were to compare the biomass composition of several organisms and to evaluate how biomass precursor coefficients affected the predictability of several genome-scale metabolic models by comparing predictions with experimental data in literature. For that, the biomass macromolecular composition was experimentally determined and the amino acid composition was both experimentally and computationally estimated for several organisms. Sensitivity analysis studies were also performed with the Escherichia coli iAF1260 metabolic model concerning specific growth rates and flux distributions. The results obtained suggest that the macromolecular composition is conserved among related organisms. Contrasting, experimental data for amino acid composition seem to have no similarities for related organisms. It was also observed that the impact of macromolecular composition on specific growth rates and flux distributions is larger than the impact of amino acid composition, even when data from closely related organisms are used.

The efficient use of water in the context of climate change

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed

Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985–2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985–1990, 1991–1996, 1997–2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Flood analysis of the clare river catchment considering traditional factors and climate change

The main objective of this thesis on flooding was to produce a detailed report on flooding with specific reference to the Clare River catchment. Past flooding in the Clare River catchment was assessed with specific reference to the November 2009 flood event. A Geographic Information System was used to produce a graphical representation of the spatial distribution of the November 2009 flood. Flood risk is prominent within the Clare River catchment especially in the region of Claregalway. The recent flooding events of November 2009 produced significant fluvial flooding from the Clare River. This resulted in considerable flood damage to property. There were also hidden costs such as the economic impact of the closing of the N17 until floodwater subsided. Land use and channel conditions are traditional factors that have long been recognised for their effect on flooding processes. These factors were examined in the context of the Clare River catchment to determine if they had any significant effect on flood flows. Climate change has become recognised as a factor that may produce more significant and frequent flood events in the future. Many experts feel that climate change will result in an increase in the intensity and duration of rainfall in western Ireland. This would have significant implications for the Clare River catchment, which is already vulnerable to flooding. Flood estimation techniques are a key aspect in understanding and preparing for flood events. This study uses methods based on the statistical analysis of recorded data and methods based on a design rainstorm and rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood flows. These provide a mathematical basis to evaluate the impacts of various factors on flooding and also to generate practical design floods, which can be used in the design of flood relief measures. The final element of the thesis includes the author’s recommendations on how flood risk management techniques can reduce existing flood risk in the Clare River catchment. Future implications to flood risk due to factors such as climate change and poor planning practices are also considered.

Modern climate change in Georgia. Radiatively active small atmospheric admixtures

წიგნში წარმოდგენილია საქართველოში ზოგიერთი ოპტიკურად აქტიური მცირე ატმოსფერული მინარევის მრავალწლიური კვლევის შედეგები. წარმოდგენილია მონაცემები C02, CHx, S02 და აეროზოლების ანთროპოგენური ემისიების შესახებ. დაწვრილებითაა შესწავლილი აეროზოლების თვლადი კონცენტრაციის ვერტიკალური განაწილება ტროპოსფეროში საქართველოს სხვადასხვა რეგიონისთვის. ჩატარებულია ოზონის საერთო რაოდენობის, ატმოსფერული აეროზოლების ოპტიკური სიმკვრის და სხვა ნაერთების გრძელვადიანი ვარიაცების დეტალური ანალიზი. წარმოდგენილია ზოგიერთი ნაერთის გავლენის თეორიული შეფასება საქართველოში მზის პირდაპირი და გაბნეული რადიაციის რეჟიმზე.

Assessment of touristical-recreation potential of Georgia on background regional climate change

The determination of the climatic potential of tourism to Tbilisi (the capital of Georgia) into the correspondence with that frequently utilized in other countries of the “tourism climate index” is carried out.

Tourism Climate Index in Batumi

ნაშრომში მოცემულია ბათუმისათვის ტურიზმის კლიმატური პოტენციალის შეფასება სხვადასხვა ქვეყანაში ხშირად ხმარებული “ტურიზმის კლიმატური ინდექსის” შესაბამისად

Tourism Climate Index in Tbilisi

ნაშრომში მოცემულია თბილისისათვის ტურიზმის კლიმატური პოტენციალის შეფასება სხვადასხვა ქვეყანაში ხშირად ხმარებული “ტურიზმის კლიმატური ინდექსის” შესაბამისად.

On the provision of global public goods : experimental evidence on climate change mitigation issues

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011