A quasi-likelihood method for fractal-dimension estimation

We propose a simple method of constructing quasi-likelihood functions for dependent data based on conditional-mean-variance relationships, and apply the method to estimating the fractal dimension from box-counting data. Simulation studies were carried out to compare this method with the traditional methods. We also applied this technique to real data from fishing grounds in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Does the size of subsamples taken from multispecies trawl catches affect estimates of catch composition and abundance?

Although subsampling is a common method for describing the composition of large and diverse trawl catches, the accuracy of these techniques is often unknown. We determined the sampling errors generated from estimating the percentage of the total number of species recorded in catches, as well as the abundance of each species, at each increase in the proportion of the sorted catch. We completely partitioned twenty prawn trawl catches from tropical northern Australia into subsamples of about 10 kg each. All subsamples were then sorted, and species numbers recorded. Catch weights ranged from 71 to 445 kg, and the number of fish species in trawls ranged from 60 to 138, and invertebrate species from 18 to 63. Almost 70% of the species recorded in catches were "rare" in subsamples (less than one individual per 10 kg subsample or less than one in every 389 individuals). A matrix was used to show the increase in the total number of species that were recorded in each catch as the percentage of the sorted catch increased. Simulation modelling showed that sorting small subsamples (about 10% of catch weights) identified about 50% of the total number of species caught in a trawl. Larger subsamples (50% of catch weight on average) identified about 80% of the total species caught in a trawl. The accuracy of estimating the abundance of each species also increased with increasing subsample size. For the "rare" species, sampling error was around 80% after sorting 10% of catch weight and was just less than 50% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted. For the "abundant" species (five or more individuals per 10 kg subsample or five or more in every 389 individuals), sampling error was around 25% after sorting 10% of catch weight, but was reduced to around 10% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted.

An extension of the continual reassessment method using decision theory

The primary goal of a phase I trial is to find the maximally tolerated dose (MTD) of a treatment. The MTD is usually defined in terms of a tolerable probability, q*, of toxicity. Our objective is to find the highest dose with toxicity risk that does not exceed q*, a criterion that is often desired in designing phase I trials. This criterion differs from that of finding the dose with toxicity risk closest to q*, that is used in methods such as the continual reassessment method. We use the theory of decision processes to find optimal sequential designs that maximize the expected number of patients within the trial allocated to the highest dose with toxicity not exceeding q*, among the doses under consideration. The proposed method is very general in the sense that criteria other than the one considered here can be optimized and that optimal dose assignment can be defined in terms of patients within or outside the trial. It includes as an important special case the continual reassessment method. Numerical study indicates the strategy compares favourably with other phase I designs.

Mesh-free approximations via the error reproducing kernel method and applications to nonlinear systems developing shocks

Error estimates for the error reproducing kernel method (ERKM) are provided. The ERKM is a mesh-free functional approximation scheme [A. Shaw, D. Roy, A NURBS-based error reproducing kernel method with applications in solid mechanics, Computational Mechanics (2006), to appear (available online)], wherein a targeted function and its derivatives are first approximated via non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) basis function. Errors in the NURBS approximation are then reproduced via a family of non-NURBS basis functions, constructed using a polynomial reproduction condition, and added to the NURBS approximation of the function obtained in the first step. In addition to the derivation of error estimates, convergence studies are undertaken for a couple of test boundary value problems with known exact solutions. The ERKM is next applied to a one-dimensional Burgers equation where, time evolution leads to a breakdown of the continuous solution and the appearance of a shock. Many available mesh-free schemes appear to be unable to capture this shock without numerical instability. However, given that any desired order of continuity is achievable through NURBS approximations, the ERKM can even accurately approximate functions with discontinuous derivatives. Moreover, due to the variation diminishing property of NURBS, it has advantages in representing sharp changes in gradients. This paper is focused on demonstrating this ability of ERKM via some numerical examples. Comparisons of some of the results with those via the standard form of the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) demonstrate the relative numerical advantages and accuracy of the ERKM.

A maximum-likelihood method for estimating natural mortality and catchability coefficient from catch-and-effort data

A simple stochastic model of a fish population subject to natural and fishing mortalities is described. The fishing effort is assumed to vary over different periods but to be constant within each period. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed for estimating natural mortality (M) and the catchability coefficient (q) simultaneously from catch-and-effort data. If there is not enough contrast in the data to provide reliable estimates of both M and q, as is often the case in practice, the method can be used to obtain the best possible values of q for a range of possible values of M. These techniques are illustrated with tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) data from the Northern Prawn Fishery of Australia.

An improved Fabens method for estimation of growth parameters in the vonBertalanffy model with individual asymptotes

In the analysis of tagging data, it has been found that the least-squares method, based on the increment function known as the Fabens method, produces biased estimates because individual variability in growth is not allowed for. This paper modifies the Fabens method to account for individual variability in the length asymptote. Significance tests using t-statistics or log-likelihood ratio statistics may be applied to show the level of individual variability. Simulation results indicate that the modified method reduces the biases in the estimates to negligible proportions. Tagging data from tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) and rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) are analysed as an illustration.

Method for comparing the capture efficiency of benthic sampling devices

Traditional comparisons between the capture efficiency of sampling devices have generally looked at the absolute differences between devices. We recommend that the signal-to-noise ratio be used when comparing the capture efficiency of benthic sampling devices. Using the signal-to-noise ratio rather than the absolute difference has the advantages that the variance is taken into account when determining how important the difference is, the hypothesis and minimum detectable difference can be made identical for all taxa, it is independent of the units used for measurement, and the sample-size calculation is independent of the variance. This new technique is illustrated by comparing the capture efficiency of a 0.05 m(2) van Veen grab and an airlift suction device, using samples taken from Heron and One Tree lagoons, Australia.

The sputtering temperature of a cooling cylindrical rod with an insulated core

By a standard application of Jones's method associated with the Wiener-Hopf technique an explicit solution is obtained for the temperature distribution inside a cylindrical rod with an insulated inner core when the rod is allowed to enter into a fluid of large extent with a uniform speed, and a simple integral expression is derived for the value of the sputtering temperature of the rod at the points of entry. Numerical results under certain special circumstances are also obtained and presented in the form of a table.

Language change as an evolutionary process

In the thesis it is discussed in what ways concepts and methodology developed in evolutionary biology can be applied to the explanation and research of language change. The parallel nature of the mechanisms of biological evolution and language change is explored along with the history of the exchange of ideas between these two disciplines. Against this background computational methods developed in evolutionary biology are taken into consideration in terms of their applicability to the study of historical relationships between languages. Different phylogenetic methods are explained in common terminology, avoiding the technical language of statistics. The thesis is on one hand a synthesis of earlier scientific discussion, and on the other an attempt to map out the problems of earlier approaches in addition to finding new guidelines in the study of language change on their basis. Primarily literature about the connections between evolutionary biology and language change, along with research articles describing applications of phylogenetic methods into language change have been used as source material. The thesis starts out by describing the initial development of the disciplines of evolutionary biology and historical linguistics, a process which right from the beginning can be seen to have involved an exchange of ideas concerning the mechanisms of language change and biological evolution. The historical discussion lays the foundation for the handling of the generalised account of selection developed during the recent few decades. This account is aimed for creating a theoretical framework capable of explaining both biological evolution and cultural change as selection processes acting on self-replicating entities. This thesis focusses on the capacity of the generalised account of selection to describe language change as a process of this kind. In biology, the mechanisms of evolution are seen to form populations of genetically related organisms through time. One of the central questions explored in this thesis is whether selection theory makes it possible to picture languages are forming populations of a similar kind, and what a perspective like this can offer to the understanding of language in general. In historical linguistics, the comparative method and other, complementing methods have been traditionally used to study the development of languages from a common ancestral language. Computational, quantitative methods have not become widely used as part of the central methodology of historical linguistics. After the fading of a limited popularity enjoyed by the lexicostatistical method since the 1950s, only in the recent years have also the computational methods of phylogenetic inference used in evolutionary biology been applied to the study of early language history. In this thesis the possibilities offered by the traditional methodology of historical linguistics and the new phylogenetic methods are compared. The methods are approached through the ways in which they have been applied to the Indo-European languages, which is the most thoroughly investigated language family using both the traditional and the phylogenetic methods. The problems of these applications along with the optimal form of the linguistic data used in these methods are explored in the thesis. The mechanisms of biological evolution are seen in the thesis as parallel in a limited sense to the mechanisms of language change, however sufficiently so that the development of a generalised account of selection is deemed as possibly fruiful for understanding language change. These similarities are also seen to support the validity of using phylogenetic methods in the study of language history, although the use of linguistic data and the models of language change employed by these models are seen to await further development.

Rikollisia sattumalta? : Naisten keskinäistä haureutta koskevat oikeudenkäynnit 1950-luvun Itä-Suomessa

The main focus of the research is on the genealogy of women's same-sex fornication in Finnish criminal law from 1889/1894 to 1971. Why were women included in the concept of same-sex fornication in Finland and why, where, and when was the law put into effect? Which women were tried, how did the trial proceedings evolve, and what kind of effects did the trials have afterwards? Which concepts were used? These questions have been approached through the analysis of the Finnish Penal Code, the criminal law science and four trial proceedings in Eastern Finland during the 1950s. The research draws on the epistemology of the closet and the concept of heteronormativity adapted from queer theories. It is method critical in utilising ethnography, micro history and feminist ethical self-reflection. The research consists of six scientific refereed articles (see appendix) and of a theoretical introduction. The main results of the research are: 1) The genealogy of Finnish decency [Sittlichkeit] can not be researched without oral histories, due to the late modernisation of Finnish society and the legal system, which does not follow the pattern of English, French and German societies. 2) The inclusion of women's same-sex fornication in the Finnish Penal Code is not incomprehensible when compared to the early modern European legislations and court practices. Women have been punished for the sins of Sodom, though not directly under the 1734 Swedish law. 3) Fornication and decency were ambivalent concepts in the 1889/1894 law, and juridical authorities offered controversial interpretations of them during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. 4) A peak in women's convictions occurred in the 1950s, and most of the trial proceedings took place in rural Eastern Finland. Neither the state nor the police were active in prosecuting; instead, the trial proceedings began "by accident". 5) From 1940 to 1960 police training lacked instructions concerning the interrogation of women suspected of same-sex fornication. 6) The figure of the penitent woman was produced in the chiasmic encounter of confession and police interrogation which moulded and was moulded by the epistemological matrix of shame, honour, and decency. Women's speech acts were judicialised as confessions which enabled the disciplinary tampering with the women's bodies. 7) Gender and personality, more than sexuality, or "criminality" defined the status of the convicted women in their village communities after the trials. 8) Relations between police training, sexuality, and decency have not been well researched in Finland. 9) Decriminalisation in 1971 did not mark the end of homophobic legal discourse, even though the 1999 reform of sexual crimes took the form of gender neutral conceptualisation