Monitoring influenza vaccine effectiveness using the national influenza surveillance system

Background: Flu vaccine composition is reformulated on a yearly basis. As such, the vaccine effectiveness (VE) from previous seasons cannot be considered for subsequent years, and it is necessary to monitor the VE for each season. This study (MonitorEVA- monitoring vaccine effectiveness) intends to evaluate the feasibility of using the national influenza surveillance system (NISS) for monitoring the influenza VE. Material and methods: Data was collected within NISS during 2004 to 2014 seasons. We used a case-control design where laboratory confirmed incident influenza like illness (ILI) patients (cases) were compared to controls (ILI influenza negative). Eligible individuals consisted on all aged individuals that consult a general practitioner or emergency room with ILI symptoms with a swab collected within seven days of symptoms onset. VE was estimated as 1- odds ratio of being vaccinated in cases versus controls adjusted for age and month of onset by logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test possible effect of assumptions on vaccination status, ILI definition and timing of swabs (<3 days after onset). Results: During the 2004-2014 period, a total of 5302 ILI patients were collected but 798 ILI were excluded for not complying with inclusion criteria. After data restriction the sample size in both groups was higher than 148 individuals/ season; minimum sample size needed to detect a VE of at least 50% considering a level of significance of 5% and 80% power. Crude VE point estimates were under 45% in 2004/05, 2005/06, 2011/12 and 2013/14 season; between 50%-70% in 2006/07, 2008/09 and 2010/11 seasons, and above 70% in 2007/08 and 2012/13 season. From season 2006/07 to 2013/14, all crude VE estimates were statistically significant. After adjustment for age group and month of onset, the VE point estimates decreased and only 2008/09, 2012/13 and 2013/14 seasons were significant. Discussion and Conclusions: MonitorEVA was able to provide VE estimates for all seasons, including the pandemic, indicating if the VE was higher than 70% and less than 50%. When comparing with other observational studies, MonitorEVA estimates were comparable but less precise and VE estimates were in accordance with the antigenic match of the circulating virus/ vaccine strains. Given the sensitivity results, we propose a MonitorEVA based on: a) Vaccination status defined independently of number of days between vaccination and symptoms onset; b) use of all ILI data independent of the definition; c) stratification of VE according to time between onset and swab (< 3 and ≥3 days).

Emergence of Special Art Exhibits in Shopping Malls in Shanghai

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Food for Thought: Emergence of Food-Based Historical Museum Walking Tours

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Disentangling the impact of seroconversion age and set-point viral load on ART-free HIV survival

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Ambient Air Pollution and Lung Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Testing Independence in High Dimensions & Identifiability of Graphical Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Space-Time Smoothing Models for Surveillance and Complex Survey Data

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Genome scan meta-analysis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, part II: Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a common disorder with high heritability and a 10-fold increase in risk to siblings of probands. Replication has been inconsistent for reports of significant genetic linkage. To assess evidence for linkage across studies, rank-based genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was applied to data from 20 schizophrenia genome scans. Each marker for each scan was assigned to 1 of 120 30-cM bins, with the bins ranked by linkage scores (1 = most significant) and the ranks averaged across studies (R-avg) and then weighted for sample size (rootN[affected cases]). A permutation test was used to compute the probability of observing, by chance, each bin's average rank (P-AvgRnk) or of observing it for a bin with the same place (first, second, etc.) in the order of average ranks in each permutation (P-ord). The GSMA produced significant genomewide evidence for linkage on chromosome 2q (P-AvgRnk

Typing mineral deposits using their grades and tonnages in an artificial neural network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further. Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage). Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag. Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

A brief motivational intervention for substance misuse in recent-onset psychosis

Substance misuse is common in early psychosis, and impacts negatively on outcomes. Little is known about effective interventions for this population. We report a pilot study of brief intervention for substance misuse in early psychosis ( Start Over and Survive: SOS), comparing it with Standard Care(SC). Twenty-five in-patients aged 18 - 35 years with early psychosis and current misuse of non-opioid drugs were allocated randomly to conditions. Substance use and related problems were assessed at baseline, 6 weeks and 3, 6 and 12 months. Final assessments were blind to condition. All 13 SOS participants who proceeded to motivational interviewing reported less substance use at 6 months, compared with 58% (7/12) in SC alone. Effects were well maintained to 12 months. However, more SOS participants lived with a relative or partner, and this also was associated with better outcomes. Engagement remained challenging: 39% (16/41) declined participation and 38% (5/13) in SOS only received rapport building. Further research will increase sample size, and address both engagement and potential confounds.

Serum procalcitonin and C-reactive protein as markers of sepsis and outcome in patients with neurotrauma and subarachnoid haemorrhage

This prospective study evaluated serum procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as markers for systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis and mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury and subarachnoid haemorrhage. Sixty-two patients were followed for 7 days. Serum PCT and CRP were measured on days 0, 1, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Seventy-seven per cent of patients with traumatic brain injury and 83% with subarachnoid haemorrhage developed SIRS or sepsis (P= 0.75). Baseline PCT and CRP were elevated in 35% and 55% ofpatients respectively (P=0.03). There was a statistically non-significant step-wise increase in serum PCT levels from no SIRS (0.4 +/- 0.6 ng/ml) to SIRS (3.05 +/- 9.3 ng/ml) to sepsis (5.5 +/- 12.5 ng/ml). A similar trend was noted in baseline PCT in patients with mild (0.06 +/- 0.9 ng/ml), moderate (0.8 +/- 0.7 ng/ml) and severe head injury (1.2 +/- 1.9 ng/ml). Such a gradation was not observed with serum CRP There was a non-significant trend towards baseline PCT being a better marker of hospital mortality compared with baseline CRP (ROC-AUC 0.56 vs 0.31 respectively). This is the first prospective study to document the high incidence of SIRS in neurosurgical patients. In our study, serum PCT appeared to correlate with severity of traumatic brain injury and mortality. However, it could not reliably distinguish between SIRS and sepsis in this cohort. This is in pan because baseline PCT elevation seemed to correlate with severity of injury. Only a small proportion ofpatients developed sepsis, thus necessitating a larger sample size to demonstrate the diagnostic usefulness of serum PCT as a marker of sepsis. Further clinical trials with larger sample sizes are required to confirm any potential role of PCT as a sepsis and outcome indicator in patients with head injuries or subarachnoid haemorrhage.

Dietary ecology of the Australian freshwater turtle (Elseya sp.: Chelonia : Chelidae) in the Burnett River, Queensland

The Burnett River snapping turtle (Elseya sp.) from the Burnett, Mary and Fitzroy river systems is an undescribed Australian freshwater turtle, of which very little ecological information is known. This paper describes the dietary ecology of the species in the Burnett River catchment. Stomach and faecal samples were collected from turtles and an index of relative importance was used to rank food items found in stomach samples. This index indicated that algae and aquatic ribbon weed (Vallisneria) were the dominant food items consumed. No difference in diet was found between males and females. Although the sample size was small, diet appeared to vary slightly seasonally, with Elseya sp. selectively feeding on the flower buds of the Chinese elm tree (Celtis chinensis) and the seeds of the blackbean tree (Castanospermum australe) when these food items were seasonally available. Faecal samples suggest that the most ingested foods ( algae and aquatic ribbon weed) were also the most digestible. Although predominantly herbivorous, Elseya sp. was seen to eat carrion once in the wild.

Viscosupplementation for the treatment of osteoarthritis of the knee (Review)

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent chronic joint disorder worldwide and is associated with significant pain and disability. Objectives To assess the effects of viscosupplementation in the treatment of OA of the knee. The products were hyaluronan and hylan derivatives (Adant, Arthrum H, Artz (Artzal, Supartz), BioHy (Arthrease, Euflexxa, Nuflexxa), Durolane, Fermathron, Go-On, Hyalgan, Hylan G-F 20 (Synvisc Hylan G-F 20), Hyruan, NRD-101 (Suvenyl), Orthovisc, Ostenil, Replasyn, SLM-10, Suplasyn, Synject and Zeel compositum). Search strategy MEDLINE (up to January (week 1) 2006 for update), EMBASE, PREMEDLINE, Current Contents up to July 2003, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) were searched. Specialised journals and reference lists of identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and pertinent review articles up to December 2005 were handsearched. Selection criteria RCTs of viscosupplementation for the treatment of people with a diagnosis of OA of the knee were eligible. Single and double-blinded studies, placebo-based and comparative studies were eligible. At least one of the four OMERACT III core set outcome measures had to be reported (Bellamy 1997). Data collection and analysis Each trial was assessed independently by two reviewers for its methodological quality using a validated tool. All data were extracted by one reviewer and verified by a second reviewer. Continuous outcome measures were analysed as weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). However, where different scales were used to measure the same outcome, standardized mean differences (SMD) were used. Dichotomous outcomes were analyzed by relative risk (RR). Main results Seventy-six trials with a median quality score of 3 (range 1 to 5) were identified. Follow-up periods varied between day of last injection and eighteen months. Forty trials included comparisons of hyaluronan/hylan and placebo (saline or arthrocentesis), ten trials included comparisons of intra-articular (IA) corticosteroids, six trials included comparisons of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), three trials included comparisons of physical therapy, two trials included comparisons of exercise, two trials included comparisons of arthroscopy, two trials included comparisons of conventional treatment, and fifteen trials included comparisons of other hyaluronans/hylan. The pooled analyses of the effects of viscosupplements against 'placebo' controls generally supported the efficacy of this class of intervention. In these same analyses, differential efficacy effects were observed for different products on different variables and at different timepoints. Of note is the 5 to 13 week post injection period which showed a percent improvement from baseline of 28 to 54% for pain and 9 to 32% for function. In general, comparable efficacy was noted against NSAIDs and longer-term benefits were noted in comparisons against IA corticosteroids. In general, few adverse events were reported in the hyaluronan/hylan trials included in these analyses. Authors' conclusions Based on the aforementioned analyses, viscosupplementation is an effective treatment for OA of the knee with beneficial effects: on pain, function and patient global assessment; and at different post injection periods but especially at the 5 to 13 week post injection period. It is of note that the magnitude of the clinical effect, as expressed by the WMD and standardised mean difference (SMD) from the RevMan 4.2 output, is different for different products, comparisons, timepoints, variables and trial designs. However, there are few randomised head-to-head comparisons of different viscosupplements and readers should be cautious, therefore, in drawing conclusions regarding the relative value of different products. The clinical effect for some products, against placebo, on some variables at some timepoints is in the moderate to large effect-size range. Readers should refer to relevant tables to review specific detail given the heterogeneity in effects across the product class and some discrepancies observed between the RevMan 4.2 analyses and the original publications. Overall, the analyses performed are positive for the HA class and particularly positive for some products with respect to certain variables and timepoints, such as pain on weight bearing at 5 to 13 weeks postinjection. In general, sample-size restrictions preclude any definitive comment on the safety of the HA class of products; however, within the constraints of the trial designs employed no major safety issues were detected. In some analyses viscosupplements were comparable in efficacy to systemic forms of active intervention, with more local reactions but fewer systemic adverse events. In other analyses HA products had more prolonged effects than IA corticosteroids. Overall, the aforementioned analyses support the use of the HA class of products in the treatment of knee OA.

Randomized trial of 8 Gy in 1 versus 20 Gy in 5 fractions of radiotherapy for neuropathic pain due to bone metastases (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group, TROG 96.05)

Background and purpose: Despite numerous randomized trials investigating radiotherapy (RT) fractionation schedules for painful bone metastases, there are very few data on RT for bone metastases causing pain with a neuropathic component. The Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group undertook a randomized trial comparing the efficacy of a single 8 Gy (8/1) with 20 Gy in 5 fractions (20/5) for this type of pain. Materials and methods: Eligible patients had radiological evidence of bone metastases from a known malignancy with no change in systemic therapy within 6 weeks before or anticipated within 4 weeks after RT, no other metastases along the distribution of the neuropathic pain and no clinical or radiological evidence of cord/cauda equina compression. All patients gave written informed consent. Primary endpoints were pain response within 2 months of commencement of RT and time to treatment failure (TTF). The hypothesis was that 8/1 is at least as effective as 20/5 and the planned sample size was 270 patients. Results: Between February 1996 and December 2002, 272 patients were randomized (8/1:20/5 = 137:135) from 15 centres (Australia 11, New Zealand 3, UK 1). The commonest primary cancers were lung (31%), prostate (29%) and breast (8%); index sites were spine (89%), rib (9%), other (2%); 72% of patients were males and the median age was 67 (range 2989). The median overall survival (95% CI) for all randomized patients was 4.8 mo (4.2-5.7 mo). The intention-to-treat overall response rates (95% Cl) for 8/1 vs 20/5 were 53% (45-62%) vs 61% (53-70%), P = 0.18. Corresponding figures for complete response were 26% (18-34%) vs 27% (19-35%), P = 0.89. The estimated median TTFs (95% CI) were 2.4 mo (2.0-3.3 mo) vs 3.7 mo (3.1-5.9 mo) respectively. The hazard ratio (95% Cl) for the comparison of TTF curves was 1.35 (0.99-1.85), log-rank P = 0.056. There were no statistically significant differences in the rates of re-treatment, cord compression or pathological fracture by arm. Conclusions: 8/1 was not shown to be as effective as 20/5, nor was it statistically significantly worse. Outcomes were generally poorer for 8/1, although the quantitative differences were relatively small. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.