Avaliação de incertezas na calibração automática do modelo SWMM

Este trabalho é referente ao desenvolvimento de um calibrador multiobjetivo automático do modelo SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), e avaliação de algumas fontes de incertezas presentes no processo de calibração, visando à representação satisfatória da transformação chuva-vazão. O código foi escrito em linguagem C, e aplica os conceitos do método de otimização multiobjetivo NSGAII (Non Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm) com elitismo controlado, além de utilizar o código fonte do modelo SWMM para a determinação das vazões simuladas. Paralelamente, também foi criada uma interface visual, para melhorar a facilidade de utilização do calibrador. Os testes do calibrador foram aplicados a três sistemas diferentes: um sistema hipotético disponibilizado no pacote de instalação do SWMM; um sistema real de pequenas dimensões, denominado La Terraza, localizado no município de Sierra Vista, Arizona (EUA); e um sistema de maiores dimensões, a bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Gregório, localizada no município de São Carlos (SP). Os resultados indicam que o calibrador construído apresenta, em geral, eficiência satisfatória, porém é bastante dependente da qualidade dos dados observados em campo e dos parâmetros de entrada escolhidos pelo usuário. Foi demonstrada a importância da escolha dos eventos utilizados na calibração, do estabelecimento de limites adequados nos valores das variáveis de decisão, da escolha das funções objetivo e, principalmente, da qualidade e representatividade dos dados de monitoramento pluvio e fluviométrico. Conclui-se que estes testes desenvolvidos contribuem para o entendimento mais aprofundado dos processos envolvidos na modelagem e calibração, possibilitando avanços na confiabilidade dos resultados da modelagem.

Illinois Phosphorus Effluent Limits: Minimizing the Impacts Through the Use of Non-point Controls at the Springbrook Water Reclamation Center in Naperville, Illinois

Phosphorus pollution is a major concern in Illinois. Excessive amounts of phosphorus can be detrimental to water bodies. To help control phosphorus, the Illinois Pollution Control Board has proposed phosphorus limits on wastewater treatment facility discharges. If enacted, these limits will have negative impacts on the Springbrook Water Reclamation Center in Naperville, Illinois. To minimize these impacts, Naperville can utilize various non-point controls recommended in this paper to decrease the amount of phosphorus entering into the DuPage River and the Springbrook Water Reclamation Center. While these controls will not reduce levels low enough to totally satisfy limits on phosphorus discharges, they will significantly reduce the treatment costs Naperville will need to expend to meet them and be more environmentally effective.

The Creation of a Legal Ordinance and Program Manual for the Purpose of Illicit Discharge Detection and Elimination

Illegal dumping and improper disposal of pollutants in urban areas can contribute significant pollutant loads to the municipal separate storm sewer system (MS4) and natural environments. Illicit discharges to the MS4 can pose a significant risk to human and environmental health. The Clean Water Act requires that municipalities implement a legal mechanism and plan to detect and eliminate illicit discharges to the MS4. The methodology for program creation included the analysis of other municipal illicit discharge programs, review of state and federal guidance publications, and the review of illicit discharge case-studies. This paper describes a systematic approach applied to the creation and implementation of a legal ordinance and program manual designed for the purpose of illicit discharge detection and elimination (IDDE).

The Effectiveness of Rain Gardens as a Low-Impact Development Strategy for Storm Water Pollution Reduction in Western Washington

Stormwater runoff is a major cause of surface water pollution in western Washington and cost-effective control measures are needed to reduce contamination of receiving waters. This project evaluated the performance efficiency and costs of installing a residential rain garden by inspecting two gardens and testing water quality samples in one. Infiltration through the garden was effective in reducing metals and nutrients as indicated by reductions in copper and nitrate concentrations of 75% and 97%, respectively. The costs were affordable for most homeowners and cost-effective compared to other options. After doing on-site investigations, the storm water manual for the State of Washington was reviewed and eight recommendations were made for improving it.

Construction of a Sustainable City Park in Ruddle, WV: A Model for Sustainable Park Design in Humid Climates

Three sustainable projects were studied under a sustainable park model for humid climates to determine where their costs lie in terms of installation, maintenance or both. These projects included the use of solar lighting to replace every configuration of conventional lighting, inclusion of a water garden/bog filter and Riparian Buffer System for the purposes of filtering sediments and nutrients out of runoff to prevent contaminated runoff from reaching the river that was adjacent to the park model location and construction of a LEED-inspired building to serve as the concession stand/restrooms building. The aggregate cost savings of instituting all three projects over ten years was $74,120 and the entire project paid itself off in approximately four years.

On the steric and mass-induced contributions to the annual sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea

The sea level variation (SLVtotal) is the sum of two major contributions: steric and mass-induced. The steric SLVsteric is that resulting from the thermal and salinity changes in a given water column. It only involves volume change, hence has no gravitational effect. The mass-induced SLVmass, on the other hand, arises from adding or subtracting water mass to or from the water column and has direct gravitational signature. We examine the closure of the seasonal SLV budget and estimate the relative importance of the two contributions in the Mediterranean Sea as a function of time. We use ocean altimetry data (from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, ERS, and ENVISAT missions) to estimate SLVtotal, temperature, and salinity data (from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean ocean model) to estimate SLVsteric, and time variable gravity data (from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Project, April 2002 to July 2004) to estimate SLVmass. We find that the annual cycle of SLVtotal in the Mediterranean is mainly driven by SLVsteric but moderately offset by SLVmass. The agreement between the seasonal SLVmass estimations from SLVtotal – SLVsteric and from GRACE is quite remarkable; the annual cycle reaches the maximum value in mid-February, almost half a cycle later than SLVtotal or SLVsteric, which peak by mid-October and mid-September, respectively. Thus, when sea level is rising (falling), the Mediterranean Sea is actually losing (gaining) mass. Furthermore, as SLVmass is balanced by vertical (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) and horizontal (exchange of water with the Atlantic, Black Sea, and river runoff) mass fluxes, we compared it with the P–E determined from meteorological data to estimate the annual cycle of the horizontal flux.

Feedbacks between vegetation pattern and resource loss dramatically decrease ecosystem resilience and restoration potential in a simple dryland model

Conceptual frameworks of dryland degradation commonly include ecohydrological feedbacks between landscape spatial organization and resource loss, so that decreasing cover and size of vegetation patches result in higher water and soil losses, which lead to further vegetation loss. However, the impacts of these feedbacks on dryland dynamics in response to external stress have barely been tested. Using a spatially-explicit model, we represented feedbacks between vegetation pattern and landscape resource loss by establishing a negative dependence of plant establishment on the connectivity of runoff-source areas (e.g., bare soils). We assessed the impact of various feedback strengths on the response of dryland ecosystems to changing external conditions. In general, for a given external pressure, these connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease vegetation cover at equilibrium, which indicates a decrease in ecosystem resistance. Along a gradient of gradual increase of environmental pressure (e.g., aridity), the connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease the amount of pressure required to cause a critical shift to a degraded state (ecosystem resilience). If environmental conditions improve, these feedbacks increase the pressure release needed to achieve the ecosystem recovery (restoration potential). The impact of these feedbacks on dryland response to external stress is markedly non-linear, which relies on the non-linear negative relationship between bare-soil connectivity and vegetation cover. Modelling studies on dryland vegetation dynamics not accounting for the connectivity-mediated feedbacks studied here may overestimate the resistance, resilience and restoration potential of drylands in response to environmental and human pressures. Our results also suggest that changes in vegetation pattern and associated hydrological connectivity may be more informative early-warning indicators of dryland degradation than changes in vegetation cover.

Efectos del cambio climático y usos del suelo sobre los recursos hídricos de la cuenca del río Tordera (Barcelona, España)

Se presentan los efectos del cambio global en la cuenca del río Tordera (España) para el periodo 2000-2050, escenarios climáticos A2 (medio-alto) definidos por el Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático (IPCC, 200) y escenarios socioeconómicos (cambios previstos en la cuenca) denominados estable y tendencial. Los efectos sobre los recursos hídricos se han analizado de forma conjunta superficial-subterránea mediante una metodológica de tipo acoplado. Para establecer los impactos futuros sobre los recursos hídricos se ha seleccionado el Modelo de Circulación Global ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute). Los resultados obtenidos indican una disminución de la precipitación del 11.3% y un aumento de la temperatura de 1ºC, respecto a los valores históricos de la zona. De acuerdo a la proyección futura (2050) sobre cambios en los recursos hídricos, la escorrentía superficial obtenida mediante simulación con el código HEC-HMS 3.4 experimenta una reducción del 31.8% respecto al valor histórico y la recarga natural, estimada mediante VISUAL-Balan, se reduce en un 11.7%. El balance en el acuífero deltaico simulado mediante MODFLOW 2009.1 Pro muestra igualmente una disminución de los parámetros del balance. Los cambios del uso del suelo previstos de acuerdo a la legislación vigente (escenarios socioeconómicos) no conducen a la generación de un impacto apreciable en los recursos hídricos; según los escenarios definidos la variación de precipitación y temperatura son los parámetros fundamentales del cambio previsto.

Miocene palaeoclimate reconstructions from the North Alpine Foreland Basin in Germany

Early- and Middle-Miocene sediments of the North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB) in Southern Germany contain one of the world richest regional records of silicified wood. Here we analyze over 1,000 identifiable samples, belonging to 80 wood anatomical taxa from 61 stratigraphically well-dated localities using principally the Coexistence Approach. The samples investigated originate from fluvial sediments representing periods of intensified surface runoff in the NAFB and therefore represent and provide information pertaining to the wet end-member of the fluctuating climate system. The dry end of the climate system is represented in the profiles either by hiatuses or palaeosoils. The dataset is split into four xylofloras: (I) the Ortenburg xyloflora (Late Ottnangian; ~17.5 to 17.3 Ma) originating from a paratropical evergreen Carapoxylon (Xylocarpus) forest; (II) the Southern Franconian Alb xyloflora (Late Karpatian; 17.0 to ~16.3 Ma) originating from a subtropical semideciduous limestone forest; (III) the upper Older Series xyloflora (Early Badenian; ~16.3 to ~15.3 Ma) originating from a subtropical oak-laurel forest; and (IV) the upper Middle Series xyloflora (Middle Badenian; 14.3 to ~13.8 Ma) originating from a subtropical dry deciduous forest.

Dissolved organic carbon in sediments of the central Arctic Ocean collected during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 from August-September 2012

Marine organic matter (OM) sinks from surface waters to the seafloor via the biological pump. Benthic communities, which use this sedimented OM as energy and carbon source, produce dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the process of remineralization, enriching the sediment porewater with fresh DOM compounds. We hypothesized that in the oligotrophic deep Arctic basin the molecular signal of freshly deposited primary produced OM is restricted to the surface sediment pore waters which should differ from bottom water and deeper sediment pore water in DOM composition. This study focused on: 1) the molecular composition of the DOM in sediment pore waters of the deep Eurasian Arctic basins, 2) whether the signal of marine vs. terrigenous DOM is represented by different compounds preserved in the sediment pore waters and 3) whether there is any relation between Arctic Ocean ice cover and DOM composition. Molecular data, obtained via 15 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer, were correlated with environmental parameters by partial least square analysis. The fresher marine detrital OM signal from surface waters was limited to pore waters from < 5 cm sediment depth. The productive ice margin stations showed higher abundances of peptides, unsaturated aliphatics and saturated fatty acids formulae, indicative of fresh OM/pigments deposition, compared to northernmost stations which had stronger aromatic signals. This study contributes to the understanding of the coupling between the Arctic Ocean productivity and its depositional regime, and how it will be altered in response to sea ice retreat and increasing river runoff.

Size exclusion chromatogram of the Tannermoor 2009 sample after saltout experiments

Samples from a pristine raised peat bog runoff in Austria, the Tannermoor creek, were analysed for their iron linked to natural organic matter (NOM) content. Dissolved organic carbon < 0.45 µm (DOC) was 41 to 64 mg/L, iron 4.4 to 5.5 mg/L. Samples were analysed applying asymmetric field flow fractionation (AsFlFFF) coupled to UV-Vis absorption, fluorescence and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The samples showed an iron peak associated with the NOM peak, one sample exhibiting a second peak of iron independent from the NOM peak. As highland peat bogs with similar climatic conditions and vegetation to the Tanner Moor are found throughout the world, including areas adjacent to the sea, we examined the behaviour of NOM and iron in samples brought to euhaline (35 per mil) conditions with artificial sea salt. The enhanced ionic strength reduced NOM by 53% and iron by 82%. Size exclusion chromatography (SEC) of the samples at sea-like salinity revealed two major fractions of NOM associated with different iron concentrations. The larger one, eluting sharply after the upper exclusion limits of 4000-5000 g/mol, seems to be most important for iron chelating. The results outline the global importance of sub-mountainous and mountainous raised peat bogs as a source of iron chelators to the marine environment at sites where such peat bogs release their run-offs into the sea.

Catchment characteristics and soil and water chemistry of the San Francisco basin and subbasins, Ecuador

In this study, the Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis methods are combined to unravel the runoff generation process of the San Francisco River basin (73.5 km**2) situated on the Amazonian side of the Cordillera Real in the southernmost Andes of Ecuador. The montane basin is covered with cloud forest, sub-páramo, pasture and ferns. Nested sampling was applied for the collection of streamwater samples and discharge measurements in the main tributaries and outlet of the basin, and for the collection of soil and rock water samples. Weekly to biweekly water grab samples were taken at all stations in the period April 2007-November 2008. Hydrometric data, Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis allowed preliminary evaluation of the processes controlling the runoff in the San Francisco River basin. Results suggest that flow during dry conditions mainly consists of lateral flow through the C-horizon and cracks in the top weathered bedrock layer, and that all subcatchments have an important contribution of this deep water to runoff, no matter whether pristine or deforested. During normal to low precipitation intensities, when antecedent soil moisture conditions favour water infiltration, vertical flow paths to deeper soil horizons with subsequent lateral subsurface flow contribute most to streamflow. Under wet conditions in forested catchments, streamflow is controlled by near surface lateral flow through the organic horizon. Exceptionally, saturation excess overland flow occurs. By absence of the litter layer in pasture, streamflow under wet conditions originates from the A horizon, and overland flow.

Biogeochemical parameters of sea water and bottom sediments near the Curieuse Island (Seychelles Islands)

Biogeochemical reef studies carried out in 1981 and 1984 found low concentration of total natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons in inshore waters. Detection of lignin in marine and bottom sediments indicates that the land has major effect on makeup of organic matter there. Comparison of compositions of organic matter in sea water, suspended matter and bottom sediments indicated that it was altered rapidly by the reef community. Thus, in the inshore zone of the island, runoff from the land is important in supplying nutrients to the reef ecosystem alongside with transport of nutrients by deep waters. Concentrations of nutri¬ents (N, P) in the inshore zone are higher than in waters of the tropical part of the ocean. Nitrogen is the limiting element in development of phytoplankton in the inshore zone.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core PS51/092-12

Diatom assemblages were employed to study temporal changes of Siberian river runoff on the Laptev Sea shelf. Using a correlation between freshwater diatoms (%) in core-top sediments and summer surface water salinities from the inner Kara Sea, salinity conditions were reconstructed for a site northeast of the Lena River Delta (present water depth 32 m) since 9 calendar years (cal) ka. The reconstruction indicate a strong, near-coastal, and river-influenced environment at the site until about 8.6 cal ka. Corroborated by comparison with other proxy records from further to the east, surface salinities increased from 9 to 14 until about 7.4 cal ka, owing to ongoing global sea level rise and synchronous southward shift of the coastline. Although riverine water became less influential at the site since then, salinities still varied between 12.5 and 15, particularly during the last 3.5 kyr. These more recent salinity fluctuations agree well with reconstructions from just north of the Lena Delta, emphasizing the strong linkage between shelf hydrography and riverine discharge patterns in Arctic Siberia.

Ages analysis, trace elements and relative frequencies of foraminifera snd diatoms from sediment cores AvH248260-2 and AvH248260-1, Ameralik Fjord, SW Greenland

A multiproxy record including benthic foraminifera, diatoms and XRF data of a marine sediment core from a SW Greenland fjord provides a detailed reconstruction of the oceanographic and climatic variations of the region during the last 4400 cal. years. The lower part of our record represents the final termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum. After the onset of the 'Neoglaciation' at approximately 3.2 ka cal. BP, the fjord system was subject to a number of marked hydrographical changes that were closely linked to the general climatic and oceanographic development of the Labrador Sea and the North Atlantic region. Our data show that increased advection of Atlantic water (Irminger Sea Water) from the West Greenland Current into the Labrador Sea was a typical feature of Northeast Atlantic cooling episodes such as the 'Little Ice Age' and the 'European Dark Ages', while the advection of Irminger Sea Water decreased significantly during warm episodes such as the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' and the 'Roman Warm Period'.Whereas the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' was characterized by relatively cool climate as suggested by low meltwater production, the preceding 'Dark Ages' display higher meltwater runoff and consequently warmer climate. When compared with European climate, these regional climate anomalies indicate persisting patterns of advection of colder, respectively warmer air masses in the study region during these periods and thus a long-term seesaw climate pattern between West Greenland and Europe.