A contemporary assessment of land condition in the Northern Gulf region of Queensland

A framework using assessments of soil condition, pasture composition and woodland density was applied to describe 14 grazing land types as being in A (100% of original carrying capacity), B (75%), C (45%) or D (20%) condition. We assessed the condition of 260 sites, principally along public and some station roads, to provide a benchmark for current land condition. Land types were also assigned relative grazing values between 10 (best) and 0, reflecting soil fertility and potential biomass production. The method identifies particular, 'at-risk' land types for priority investment of resources, while the rationale behind assessments might point to management interventions to improve the condition of those land types. Across all land types, 47% of sites were in A condition, 34% in B condition, 17% in C condition and only 2% in D condition. Seventy-five percent of land types with grazing values >5 were in A or B condition, compared with 88% for those with grazing values ?5. For Georgetown granites, only 27% of sites were in A or B condition, with values for other land types being: alluvials 59%, black soils 64% and red duplex soils 57%, suggesting that improving management of these land types is a priority issue. On land types with high grazing value, the major discounting factor was pasture composition (72% of sites discounted), while increasing woodland density was the main discount (73% of sites discounted) on low grazing value land types.

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter.

Depression and its assessment among stroke patients and their caregivers

Approximately one-third of stroke patients experience depression. Stroke also has a profound effect on the lives of caregivers of stroke survivors. However, depression in this latter population has received little attention. In this study the objectives were to determine which factors are associated with and can be used to predict depression at different points in time after stroke; to compare different depression assessment methods among stroke patients; and to determine the prevalence, course and associated factors of depression among the caregivers of stroke patients. A total of 100 consecutive hospital-admitted patients no older than 70 years of age were followed for 18 months after having their first ischaemic stroke. Depression was assessed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III-R), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Hamilton Rating Scale (HRSD), Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS), Clinical Global Impression (CGI) and caregiver ratings. Neurological assessments and a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery were performed. Depression in caregivers was assessed by BDI. Depressive symptoms had early onsets in most cases. Mild depressive symptoms were often persistent with little change during the 18-month follow-up, although there was an increase in major depression over the same time interval. Stroke severity was associated with depression especially from 6 to 12 months post-stroke. At the acute phase, older patients were at higher risk of depression, and a higher proportion of men were depressed at 18 months post-stroke. Of the various depression assessment methods, none stood clearly apart from the others. The feasibility of each did not differ greatly, but prevalence rates differed widely according to the different criteria. When compared against DSM-III-R criteria, sensitivity and specificity were acceptable for the CGI, BDI, and HRSD. The CGI and BDI had better sensitivity than the more specific HRSD. The VAMS seemed not to be a reliable method for assessing depression among stroke patients. The caregivers often rated patients depression as more severe than did the patients themselves. Moreover, their ratings seemed to be influenced by their own depression. Of the caregivers, 30-33% were depressed. At the acute phase, caregiver depression was associated with the severity of the stroke and the older age of the patient. The best predictor of caregiver depression at later follow-up was caregiver depression at the acute phase. The results suggest that depression should be assessed during the early post-stroke period and that the follow-up of those at risk of poor emotional outcome should be extended beyond the first year post-stroke. Further, the assessment of well-being of the caregivers of stroke patients should be included as a part of a rehabilitation plan for stroke patients.

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Horsing around – Using equine facilitated learning to support the development of social-emotional competence of students at risk of school failure

The social-emotional issues some students experience can place them at risk of school failure. Traditional methods of support can be ineffective or not sustainable and new alternative approaches need to be attempted to support social-emotional competency, school engagement and success for students at risk. This paper discusses preliminary outcomes of an equine facilitated learning (EFL) programme specifically designed to focus on using horses to improve the resilience and social-emotional competency in students perceived as ‘at risk’ of school failure. This qualitative exploratory study used interviews and observations over a six month period to listen to the voices of the students themselves about their experiences of EFL. Initial findings from the pilot study suggest that EFL programmes can be a novel and motivating way to promote resilience training and social-emotional development of students at risk of failure and, in turn, improve their level of engagement and connection with school environments.

Short biceps femoris fascicles and eccentric knee flexor weakness increase the risk of hamstring injury in elite football (soccer): A prospective cohort study

Background/Aim: To investigate the role of eccentric knee flexor strength, between-limb imbalance and biceps femoris long head (BFlh) fascicle length on the risk of a future hamstring strain injury (HSI). Methods: Elite soccer players (n=152) from eight different teams participated. Eccentric knee flexor strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise and BFlh fascicle length were assessed at the beginning of pre-season. The occurrences of a HSI following this were recorded by the team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data, and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results: Twenty-seven new HSIs were reported. Eccentric knee flexor strength below 337N (RR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.1 to 17.5) and BFlh fascicles shorter than 10.56cm (RR = 4.1; 95% CI=1.9 to 8.7) significantly increased the risk of a subsequent HSI. Multivariate logistic regression revealed significant effects when combinations of age, previous history of HSI, eccentric knee flexor strength and BFlh fascicle length were explored. From these analyses the likelihood of a future HSI in older athletes or those with a previous HSI history was reduced if high levels of eccentric knee flexor strength and longer BFlh fascicles were present. Conclusions: The presence of short BFlh fascicles and low levels of eccentric strength in elite soccer players increase the risk of a future HSI. The greater risk of a future HSI in older players or those with a previous HSI is reduced when they possess longer BFlh fascicles and high levels of eccentric strength.

Lower preoperative quality of life increases postoperative risk of adverse events in women with endometrial cancer: results from the LACE trial

Objective: To examine the association between preoperative quality of life (QoL) and postoperative adverse events in women treated for endometrial cancer. Methods: 760 women with apparent Stage I endometrial cancer were randomised into a clinical trial evaluating laparoscopic versus open surgery. This analysis includes women with preoperative QoL measurements, from the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy- General (FACT-G) questionnaire, and who were followed up for at least 6 weeks after surgery (n=684). The outcomes for this study were defined as (1) the occurrence of moderate to severe AEs adverse events within 6 months (Common Toxicology Criteria (CTC) grade ≥3); and (2) any Serious Adverse Event (SAE). The association between preoperative QoL and the occurrence of AE was examined, after controlling for baseline comorbidity and other factors. Results: After adjusting for other factors, odds of occurrence of AE of CTC grade ≥3 were significantly increased with each unit decrease in baseline FACT-G score (OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p=0.030), which was driven by physical well-being (PWB) (OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.13, p=0.0002) and functional well-being subscales (FWB) (OR=1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07, p=0.035). Similarly, odds of SAE occurrence were significantly increased with each unit decrease in baseline FACT-G score (OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, p=0.011), baseline PWB (OR=1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.16, p<0.0001) or baseline FWB subscales (OR=1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10, p=0.0077). Conclusion: Women with early endometrial cancer presenting with lower QoL prior to surgery are at higher risk of developing a serious adverse event following surgery. Funding: Cancer Council Queensland, Cancer Council New South Wales, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Council, Western Australia; NHMRC project grant 456110; Cancer Australia project grant 631523; The Women and Infants Research Foundation, Western Australia; Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation; Wesley Research Institute; Gallipoli Research Foundation; Gynetech; TYCO Healthcare, Australia; Johnson and Johnson Medical, Australia; Hunter New England Centre for Gynaecological Cancer; Genesis Oncology Trust; and Smart Health Research Grant QLD Health.

Poor adoption of ley-pastures in south-west Queensland: biophysical, economic and social constraints.

The present review identifies various constraints relating to poor adoption of ley-pastures in south-west Queensland, and suggests changes in research, development and extension efforts for improved adoption. The constraints include biophysical, economic and social constraints. In terms of biophysical constraints, first, shallower soil profiles with subsoil constraints (salt and sodicity), unpredictable rainfall, drier conditions with higher soil temperature and evaporative demand in summer, and frost and subzero temperature in winter, frequently result in a failure of established, or establishing, pastures. Second, there are limited options for legumes in a ley-pasture, with the legumes currently being mostly winter-active legumes such as lucerne and medics. Winter-active legumes are ineffective in improving soil conditions in a region with summer-dominant rainfall. Third, most grain growers are reluctant to include grasses in their ley-pasture mix, which can be uneconomical for various reasons, including nitrogen immobilisation, carryover of cereal diseases and depressed yields of the following cereal crops. Fourth, a severe depletion of soil water following perennial ley-pastures (grass + legumes or lucerne) can reduce the yields of subsequent crops for several seasons, and the practice of longer fallows to increase soil water storage may be uneconomical and damaging to the environment. Economic assessments of integrating medium- to long-term ley-pastures into cropping regions are generally less attractive because of reduced capital flow, increased capital investment, economic loss associated with establishment and termination phases of ley-pastures, and lost opportunities for cropping in a favourable season. Income from livestock on ley-pastures and soil productivity gains to subsequent crops in rotation may not be comparable to cropping when grain prices are high. However, the economic benefits of ley-pastures may be underestimated, because of unaccounted environmental benefits such as enhanced water use, and reduced soil erosion from summer-dominant rainfall, and therefore, this requires further investigation. In terms of social constraints, the risk of poor and unreliable establishment and persistence, uncertainties in economic and environmental benefits, the complicated process of changing from crop to ley-pastures and vice versa, and the additional labour and management requirements of livestock, present growers socially unattractive and complex decision-making processes for considering adoption of an existing medium- to long-term ley-pasture technology. It is essential that research, development and extension efforts should consider that new ley-pasture options, such as incorporation of a short-term summer forage legume, need to be less risky in establishment, productive in a region with prevailing biophysical constraints, economically viable, less complex and highly flexible in the change-over processes, and socially attractive to growers for adoption in south-west Queensland.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address risk minimizing option pricing in a semi-Markov modulated market where the floating interest rate depends on a finite state semi-Markov process. The growth rate and the volatility of the stock also depend on the semi-Markov process. Using the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition we find the locally risk minimizing price for European options and the corresponding hedging strategy. We develop suitable numerical methods for computing option prices.

Guidance for addressing the Australian Weed Risk Assessment questions

This paper provides guidance on how to address the 49 questions of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) system. The WRA was developed in Australia in 1999, and has since been widely adapted for different regions. As interest in implementation and results comparison has increased, the issue of consistency in answering and scoring the questions has become important. As a result, this guidance was developed during the 2007 International WRA Workshop. Suggestions on search methods, data sources and examples are also provided.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Early harvest and ensilage of forage sorghum infected with ergot (Claviceps africana) reduces the risk of livestock poisoning.

Sorghum ergot produces dihydroergosine (DHES) and related alkaloids, which cause hyperthermia in cattle. Proportions of infected panicles (grain heads), leaves and stems were determined in two forage sorghum crops extensively infected 2 to 4 weeks prior to sampling and the panicles were assayed for DHES. Composite samples from each crop, plus a third grain variety crop, were coarsely chopped and half of each sealed in plastic buckets for 6 weeks to simulate ensilation. The worst-infected panicles contained up to 55 mg DHES/kg, but dilution reduced average concentrations of DHES in crops to approximately 1 mg/kg, a relatively safe level for cattle. Ensilation significantly (P = 0.043) reduced mean DHES concentrations from 0.85 to 0.46 mg/kg.