Support vector machines for regression and applications to software quality prediction

Software metrics are the key tool in software quality management. In this paper, we propose to use support vector machines for regression applied to software metrics to predict software quality. In experiments we compare this method with other regression techniques such as Multivariate Linear Regression, Conjunctive Rule and Locally Weighted Regression. Results on benchmark dataset MIS, using mean absolute error, and correlation coefficient as regression performance measures, indicate that support vector machines regression is a promising technique for software quality prediction. In addition, our investigation of PCA based metrics extraction shows that using the first few Principal Components (PC) we can still get relatively good performance.

Lifetime prediction for power electronics module substrate mount-down solder interconnect

A numerical modeling method for the prediction of the lifetime of solder joints of relatively large solder area under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions has been developed. The method is based on the Miner's linear damage accumulation rule and the properties of the accumulated plastic strain in front of the crack in large area solder joint. The nonlinear distribution of the damage indicator in the solder joints have been taken into account. The method has been used to calculate the lifetime of the solder interconnect in a power module under mixed cyclic loading conditions found in railway traction control applications. The results show that the solder thickness is a parameter that has a strong influence on the damage and therefore the lifetime of the solder joint while the substrate width and the thickness of the baseplate are much less important for the lifetime

Integrated reliability and prognostics prediction methodology for power electronic modules

The article consists of a PowerPoint presentation on integrated reliability and prognostics prediction methodology for power electronic modules. The areas discussed include: power electronics flagship; design for reliability; IGBT module; design for manufacture; power module components; reliability prediction techniques; failure based reliability; etc.

A framework for state-based time-series analysis and prediction

Time-series analysis and prediction play an important role in state-based systems that involve dealing with varying situations in terms of states of the world evolving with time. Generally speaking, the world in the discourse persists in a given state until something occurs to it into another state. This paper introduces a framework for prediction and analysis based on time-series of states. It takes a time theory that addresses both points and intervals as primitive time elements as the temporal basis. A state of the world under consideration is defined as a set of time-varying propositions with Boolean truth-values that are dependent on time, including properties, facts, actions, events and processes, etc. A time-series of states is then formalized as a list of states that are temporally ordered one after another. The framework supports explicit expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge. A formal schema for expressing general time-series of states to be incomplete in various ways, while the concept of complete time-series of states is also formally defined. As applications of the formalism in time-series analysis and prediction, we present two illustrating examples.

Prediction of reinforcement corrosion in concrete and its effects on concrete cracking and strength reduction

Based on extensive research on reinforcing steel corrosion in concrete in the past decades, it is now possible to estimate the effect of the progression of reinforcement corrosion in concrete infrastructure on its structural performance. There are still areas of considerable uncertainty in the models and in the data available, however This paper uses a recently developed model for reinforcement corrosion in concrete to improve the estimation process and to indicate the practical implications. In particular stochastic models are used to estimate the time likely to elapse for each phase of the whole corrosion process: initiation, corrosion-induced concrete cracking, and structural strength reduction. It was found that, for practical flexural structures subject to chloride attacks, corrosion initiation may start quite early in their service life. It was also found that, once the structure is considered to be unserviceable due to corrosion-induced cracking, there is considerable remaining service life before the structure can be considered to have become unsafe. The procedure proposed in the paper has the potential to serve as a rational tool for practitioners, operators, and asset managers to make decisions about the optimal timing of repairs, strengthening, and/or rehabilitation of corrosion-affected concrete infrastructure. Timely intervention has the potential to prolong the service life of infrastructure.

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection prediction and management

Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts: their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). We present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean, illustrating our approach with three well-documented examples: the North Pacific, the North Sea and Caribbean coral reefs. We conclude that the ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.

Causes and prediction of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth’ functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

Design of a silicone reservoir intravaginal ring for the delivery of oxybutynin.

Oxybutynin, a drug of choice in the treatment of urinary incontinence, has low oral bioavailability due to extensive first-pass metabolism. A toxic metabolite, N-desethyloxybutynin, has been linked to adverse reactions to oral oxybutynin. This study, therefore, reports on the design of an oxybutynin intravaginal ring (IVR) of reservoir design, comprising an oxybutynin silicone elastomer core encased in a non-medicated silicone sheath, manufactured by reaction injection moulding at 50oC. An unusually high initial burst release of oxybutynin (42.7 mg in 24 h) was observed in vitro with a full length core (100 mg drug loading), with subsequent non-zero order drug release. Use of fractional segment cores substantially reduced the burst effect, yielding linear cumulative drug release versus time plots from days 2 to 14. Thus, a 1/8 fractional segment core gave a 24 h burst of 11.28 mg oxybutynin and, thereafter, zero order release at the target dose of 5 mg/day over 14 days. Two oxybutynin cores, each 1/16 of full length, gave a greater release than a single 1/8 core, due to core segment end effects resulting in an increased surface area for release. The burst release was investigated by determining drug solubilities in the propan-1-ol product of elastomer condensation cure (390 mg/ml) and in the elastomer itself (13.9-20.21 mg/ml, by direct extraction and indirect thermal methods). These high oxybutynin solubilities were considered the major contributors to the burst effect. It was concluded that use of a fractional segment core would allow development of a suitable oxybutynin reservoir IVR.