987 resultados para regime changes


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Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) (Thunnus maccoyii) growth rates are estimated from tag-return data associated with two time periods, the 1960s and 1980s. The traditional von Bertalanffy growth model (VBG) and a two-phase VBG model were fitted to the data by maximum likelihood. The traditional VBG model did not provide an adequate representation of growth in SBT, and the two-phase VBG yielded a significantly better fit. The results indicated that significant change occurs in the pattern of growth in relation to a VBG curve during the juvenile stages of the SBT life cycle, which may be related to the transition from a tightly schooling fish that spends substantial time in near and surface shore waters to one that is found primarily in more offshore and deeper waters. The results suggest that more complex growth models should be considered for other tunas and for other species that show a marked change in habitat use with age. The likelihood surface for the two-phase VBG model was found to be bimodal and some implications of this are investigated. Significant and substantial differences were found in the growth for fish spawned in the 1960s and in the 1980s, such that after age four there is a difference of about one year in the expected age of a fish of similar length which persists over the size range for which meaningful recapture data are available. This difference may be a density-dependent response as a consequence of the marked reduction in the SBT population. Given the key role that estimates of growth have in most stock assessments, the results indicate that there is a need both for the regular monitoring of growth rates and for provisions for changes in growth over time (possibly related to changes in abundance) in the stock assessment models used for SBT and other species.

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The red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) is a popular gamefish found throughout the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern seaboard as far north as Massachusetts. Juvenile red drum grow extremely rapidly, especially during the warmer months, but adults grow very little. In fact, the change in growth with age is so abrupt that the standard von Bertalanffy curve has proven inadequate— the predicted lengths of younger fish are generally too large and the predicted lengths of older fish too small (see Beckman et al., 1988; Murphy and Taylor, 1990).

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Triennial bottom trawl survey data from 1984 to 1996 were used to evaluate changes in the summer distribution of walleye pollock in the western and central Gulf of Alaska. Differences between several age groups of pollock were evaluated. Distribution was examined in relation to several physical characteristics, including bottom depth and distance from land. Interspecies associations were also analyzed with the Bray-Curtis clustering technique to better understand community structure. Our results indicated that although the population numbers decreased, high concentrations of pollock remained in the same areas during 1984–96. However, there was an increase in the number of stations where low-density pollock concentrations of all ages were observed, which resulted in a decrease in mean population density of pollock within the GOA region. Patterns emerging from our data suggested an alternative to Mac-Call’s “basin hypothesis” which states that as population numbers decrease, there should be a contraction of the population range to optimal habitats. During 1984–96 there was a concurrent precipitous decline in Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska. The results of our study suggest that decreases in the mean density of adult pollock, the main food in the Steller sea lion diet, combined with slight changes in the distribution of pollock (age-1 pollock in particular) in the mid-1980s, may have contributed to decreased foraging efficiency in Steller sea lions. Our results support the prevailing conceptual model for pollock ontogeny, although there is evidence that substantial spawning may also occur outside of Shelikof Strait.

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Dating of annually varved sediments of Santa Barbara Basin down to AD 1650 in absence of precise radiometric methods was achieved by (1) counting varves and determining mean annual sedimentation rates from x-radiographs, and (2) correlation with historical rainfall and tree-ring records.