The 1990's property cycle in Hainan

The continuous debate between the radical and the conservative approaches on which one is more suitable for a successful economic transition seems to be in favour of the latter. With the recent upswing in the property market in Hainan, the review of the 1990s property cycle in Hainan is linked with economic transition in China. A case study approach is used to establish the importance of the 1990s Hainan property cycle to the formation process of the Chinese property market system. The analytical framework is an integration of the theories of property cycles and economic transition, using the conceptual model of typical commercial property markets modified according to the historical settings in Hainan. It is found that the 1990s Hainan property cycle is unique in that the economic transition has been the key driving force. The structural imbalance caused by the equally imbalanced reform process in different sectors in Hainan has been proved an unsuccessful practice. By and large, the 1990s cycle in Hainan lasted for about 10 years and was state-driven. It was considered an experiment conducted by the state in testing the radical approach of economic transition in the property and urban land sectors. It is suggested that current knowledge of emerging commercial property markets, especially their cyclical behaviour, is limited at both theoretical and empirical levels. Evidence from the past 15 years seems to suggest that the structural and investment imbalance in the economic transition was the main cause of the high volatility in the Hainan property market in the 1990s. The emergence of a commercial property market seems to require choosing the right places to start reform with great caution on investment structure and the fundame ntals of the real economy. Eventually, it is essential to adopt a systematic view to assess and to make decision in the process of emergence of property cycles, based on the basic demand and supply patterns in a city’s transitional economy.

Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests

This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.

Business valuation practice issues under Family Court of Australia proceedings

The study investigated the valuation of businesses valued for property settlements in the Family Court of Australia and related issues. The findings have important implications for the Family Court of Australia, the legal profession and the accounting profession in highlighting deficiencies in valuation practice at various stages of the settlement process.

Can virtual world property be considered a digital good?

What types of goods should be considered digital goods? This paper discusses the question of whether virtual property, such as items available in virtual world environments like Linden Lab’s Second Life and Blizzard’s World of Warcraft, should be considered a valid digital good. The makeup of a virtual property items are explored in this paper and their key features compared and contrasted with that of digital goods. Common examples of digital goods include: electronic books, software, digital music and digital movies. These goods are considered a tangible commodity, that is they have an unlimited supply and secondly they are in a digital/binary form (a sequence of 1’s and 0s’). When looking at why a virtual property items should be included in the category of ‘digital goods’, it is important to consider how items in a virtual world come to exist and how the availability of these items are often controlled by publishers and developers. The aim of this paper is show that digital goods should not be limited to the traditional views such as electronic books, software, music and movies; but in fact the term ‘digital good’ should also include the active market of virtual property
items.

A multidiscipline approach to governing virtual property theft in virtual worlds

The crime of virtual property theft has become a serious problem in virtual worlds in recent years. Players of these games are repeatedly falling victim to this crime, with little or no repercussion for the offender. Virtual property often has a substantial real world monetary value and the theft of such items impacts greatly on victims. The problem of virtual property theft is complex, involving many legal, regulatory and technological factors. As such, trying to address this problem in a single dimension is not sufficient, each factor need to be addressed with a multidisciplinary approach. In addressing this problem, this paper provides a model for describing the issue of virtual property trading and the issues associated with virtual property theft. The paper also proposes an approach for handling virtual property theft based on improvements to laws related to virtual property and theft, improvements to the virtual world software components and better regulation from governments.

The use of heuristics in valuation practice : implications in a changing market

Despite the existence of prescribed frameworks, valuation remains a cause of much controversy and variety of opinion. It does not matter whether procedures are undertaken in exactly the same way, the conclusion of ‘value’ will vary from valuer to valuer – sometimes considerably. This uncertainty within valuation is founded on property’s heterogeneous nature and the imperfect market that is the property market; in addition to the unpredictability of human behaviour in making judgements (French and Gabrielli 2004). Uncertainty, in valuation is found in the amalgam of locational, physical and legal characteristics and innumerable other forces which control and energise the property market (Whipple 1995). Particular irregular occurrences, or drastic changes in property markets, from either within market evolution or external forces, for example the creation of global financial markets, cause further uncertainty for valuers and provides challenges in identifying ‘market value’ in valuation practice. The praxis of valuation in a commercial sense navigates this complexity using a combination of algorithms and heuristics to identify the value of a property. The application of theoretical mathematical algorithms based on economic theory (Brown 1995), is augmented by valuers’ ability to apply appropriate adjustment based on their knowledge of the market, their ability to analyse, assess and compare the attributes of a property in comparison to its market, and their practical experience (Sliogeriene 2008). Despite the necessity of algorithms, the application of appropriate adjustments and assumptions are important in arriving at a value. This paper is a critical reflection on the basis of valuation practice as guided by standards, methods, and ethics (algorithms), and the use of heuristics in practice. This is important because changes within property markets challenge the inter-relationship between these two aspects of valuation practice. Through the authors’ industry experience and a review of previous research and statements of practice norms this paper provides an analysis of the ability of valuers to address market change in their valuation practices.

Sustainability - the crucial challenge for the valuation profession

Valuation has a pivotal role in increasing the level of sustainability in the built environment. To date, sustainability has received limited attention in valuation practice, and as a result the relationship between sustainability and market value has not been clearly defined. As a consequence, the commercial investment community are hesitant to invest in sustainability beyond best practice management techniques. Valuers’ lack of acknowledgement of sustainability in valuation practice and its changing role in property investment in the built environment, has had a potentially detrimental impact by limiting investment in sustainability in commercial property. Consequently, this lack of acknowledgment and incorporation of sustainability in practice has the potential to cause chaos within the market in the future. It was found that valuers, per se, are inexperienced and have limited knowledge of sustainability in commercial property. Due to differences between generations of valuers, this paper examines whether ‘younger’ valuers’1 knowledge of sustainability, as a concept, measurement and any possible relationship with market value is more extensive than senior valuers. Or whether senior valuers experiences in the market are more sensitive to the change sustainability is having in the commercial property market. A key issue for the profession concerning sustainability and its effect on the market is the limited channels for knowledge development. The implications of this research are the need for increased curriculum in university education, so knowledge dissemination across the profession can be achieved. The development of knowledge of sustainability and its relationship in commercial property will progress the incorporation of sustainability in valuation practice. As a consequence, this will increase the investment in sustainability in the commercial property market.

Virtual property theft detection framework

 The issue of virtual property theft in virtual worlds is a serious problem which has ramifications in both the real and virtual world. Virtual world users invest a considerable amount of time, effort and often money to collect virtual property items, only to have them stolen by thieves. Many virtual property thefts go undetected, with thieves often stealing virtual property items without resistance, leaving victims to discover the theft only after it has occurred. This paper presents the design of a detection framework that uses an algorithm for identifying virtual property theft at two key stages: account intrusion and unauthorized virtual property trades. Initial tests of this framework on a synthetic data set show an 80% detection rate with no false positives. This framework can allow virtual world developers to tailor and extend it to suit their specific virtual world software and provide an effective way of detecting virtual property theft while being a low maintenance, user friendly and cost effective.