Who remembers Turkey's pre-accession? CEPS Special Report No. 74/December 2012

In 2005 the EU and Turkey officially started accession negotiations that were intended to lead to Turkey’s full membership of the EU. Yet today, the Turkish accession process has virtually ground to a halt and lost all credibility. Talk of alternatives to full membership can be heard from various sides; we highlight four instances of what we call ‘parallelism’, namely the elusive concept of a ‘privileged partnership’, the EU-Turkey customs union, the recently launched ‘Positive Agenda’ and Turkish participation in the Energy Community Treaty. While a privileged partnership represents a more comprehensive but still remote framework for EU-Turkish relations, the latter three are merely an escape route from preaccession. We conclude our analysis with a discussion on Turkey’s possible membership of the European Economic Area, which in effect would serve none of the parties involved. We conclude that both partners, the EU and Turkey, would be well advised to remember their pre-accession commitments of 13 years ago – for their mutual benefit.

On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.

Tracing pre-eruptive magma degassing using (Pb-210/Ra-226) disequilibria in the volcanic deposits of the 1980-1986 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Disequilibria between Pb-210 and Ra-226 can be used to trace magma degassing, because the intermediate nuclides, particularly Rn-222, are volatile. Products of the 1980-1986 eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been analysed for (Pb-210/Ra-226). Both excesses and deficits of Pb-210 are encountered suggesting rapid gas transfer. The time scale of diffuse, non-eruptive gas escape prior to 1980 as documented by Pb-210 deficits is on the order of a decade using the model developed by Gauthier and Condomines (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 172 (1999) 111-126) for a non-renewed magma chamber and efficient Rn removal. The time required to build-up Pb-210 excess is much shorter (months) as can be observed from steady increases of (Pb-210/Ra-226) with time during 1980-1982. The formation of Pb-210 excess requires both rapid gas transport through the magma and periodic blocking of gas escape routes. Superposed on this time trend is the natural variability of (Pb-210/Ra-226) in a single eruption caused by tapping magma from various depths. The two time scales of gas transport, to create both Pb-210 deficits and Pb-210 excesses, cannot be reconciled in a single event. Rather Pb-210 deficits are associated with pre-eruptive diffuse degassing, while Pb-210 excesses document the more vigorous degassing associated with eruption and recharge of the system. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated pre-processing strategies for species occurrence data used in biodiversity modelling

To construct Biodiversity richness maps from Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) of thousands of species is time consuming. A separate species occurrence data pre-processing phase enables the experimenter to control test AUC score variance due to species dataset size. Besides, removing duplicate occurrences and points with missing environmental data, we discuss the need for coordinate precision, wide dispersion, temporal and synonymity filters. After species data filtering, the final task of a pre-processing phase should be the automatic generation of species occurrence datasets which can then be directly ’plugged-in’ to the ENM. A software application capable of carrying out all these tasks will be a valuable time-saver particularly for large scale biodiversity studies.

Post-abscission, pre-dispersal seeds of Digitalis purpurea remain in a developmental state that is not terminated by desiccation ex planta

Seed quality may be compromised if seeds are harvested before natural dispersal (shedding). It has been shown previously that slow or delayed drying can increase potential quality compared with immediate rapid drying. This study set out to investigate whether or not there is a critical moisture content, below which drying terminates maturation events for seeds harvested after mass maturity but before dispersal. Seeds of foxglove (Digitalis purpurea) in the post-abscission pre-dispersal phase were held at between 15 and 95 % RH for 4 or 8 d, with or without re-hydration to 95 % RH for a further 4 d, before drying to equilibrium at 15 % RH. In addition, dry seeds were primed for 48 h at -1 MPa. Subsequent seed longevity was assessed at 60 % RH and 45 degrees C. Rate of germination and longevity were improved by holding seeds at a wide range of humidities after harvest. Longevity was further improved by re-hydration at 95 % RH. Priming improved the longevity of the seeds dried immediately after harvest, but not of those first held at 95 % RH for 8 d prior to drying. Maturation continued ex planta in these post-abscission, pre-dispersal seeds of D. purpurea dried at 15-80 % RH at a rate correlated positively with RH (cf. ageing of mature seeds). Subsequent re-hydration at 95 % RH enabled a further improvement in quality. Priming seeds initially stored air-dry for 3 months also allowed maturation events to resume. However, once individual seeds within the population had reached maximum longevity, priming had a negative impact on their subsequent survival.

Drought, pod yield, pre-harvest Aspergillus infection and aflatoxin contamination on peanut in Niger

Soil moisture and soil temperature affect pre-harvest infection with Aspergillus flavus and production of aflatoxin. The objectives of our field research in Niger, West Africa, were to: (i) examine the effects of sowing date and irrigation treatments on pod yield, infection with A. flavus and aflatoxin concentration; and (ii) to quantify relations between infection, aflatoxin concentration and soil moisture stress. Seed of an aflatoxin susceptible peanut cv. JL24 was sown at two to four different sowing dates under four irrigation treatments (rainfed and irrigation at 7, 14 and 21 days intervals) between 1991 and 1994, giving 40 different 'environments'. Average air and soil temperatures of 28-34 degrees C were favourable for aflatoxin contamination. CROPGRO-peanut model was used to simulate the occurrence of moisture stress. The model was able to simulate yields of peanut well over the 40 environments (r(2) = 0.67). In general, early sowing produced greater pod yields, as well as less infection and lower aflatoxin concentration. There were negative linear relations between infection (r(2) = 0.62) and the average simulated fraction of extractable soil water (FESW) between flowering and harvest, and between aflatoxin concentration (r(2) = 0.54) and FESW in the last 25 days of pod-filling. This field study confirms that infection and aflatoxin concentration in peanut can be related to the occurrence of soil moisture stress during pod-filling when soil temperatures are near optimal for A. flavus. These relations could form the basis of a decision-support system to predict the risk of aflatoxin contamination in peanuts in similar environments. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extinction processes in hotspots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.