Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

An integrated approach for distributed energy resource short term scheduling in smart grids considering realistic power system simulation

The large increase of distributed energy resources, including distributed generation, storage systems and demand response, especially in distribution networks, makes the management of the available resources a more complex and crucial process. With wind based generation gaining relevance, in terms of the generation mix, the fact that wind forecasting accuracy rapidly drops with the increase of the forecast anticipation time requires to undertake short-term and very short-term re-scheduling so the final implemented solution enables the lowest possible operation costs. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource scheduling in smart grids, considering day ahead, hour ahead and five minutes ahead scheduling. The short-term scheduling, undertaken five minutes ahead, takes advantage of the high accuracy of the very-short term wind forecasting providing the user with more efficient scheduling solutions. The proposed method uses a Genetic Algorithm based approach for optimization that is able to cope with the hard execution time constraint of short-term scheduling. Realistic power system simulation, based on PSCAD , is used to validate the obtained solutions. The paper includes a case study with a 33 bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources implemented in PSCAD .

The verification of temporal KBS: SPARSE - a case study in power systems

In this paper we present VERITAS, a tool that focus time maintenance, that is one of the most important processes in the engineering of the time during the development of KBS. The verification and validation (V&V) process is part of a wider process denominated knowledge maintenance, in which an enterprise systematically gathers, organizes, shares, and analyzes knowledge to accomplish its goals and mission. The V&V process states if the software requirements specifications have been correctly and completely fulfilled. The methodologies proposed in software engineering have showed to be inadequate for Knowledge Based Systems (KBS) validation and verification, since KBS present some particular characteristics. VERITAS is an automatic tool developed for KBS verification which is able to detect a large number of knowledge anomalies. It addresses many relevant aspects considered in real applications, like the usage of rule triggering selection mechanisms and temporal reasoning.

Virtual power producers market strategies

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Producers (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper detail some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study.

Multi-agent electricity market simulation with dynamic strategies & virtual power producers

Distributed energy resources will provide a significant amount of the electricity generation and will be a normal profitable business. In the new decentralized grid, customers will be among the many decentralized players and may even help to co-produce the required energy services such as demand-side management and load shedding. So, they will gain the opportunity to be more active market players. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. In this paper we propose the improvement of MASCEM, a multi-agent simulation tool to study negotiations in electricity spot markets based on different market mechanisms and behavior strategies, in order to take account of decentralized players such as VPP.

LMP based bid formation for virtual power players operating in smart grids

Power system organization has gone through huge changes in the recent years. Significant increase in distributed generation (DG) and operation in the scope of liberalized markets are two relevant driving forces for these changes. More recently, the smart grid (SG) concept gained increased importance, and is being seen as a paradigm able to support power system requirements for the future. This paper proposes a computational architecture to support day-ahead Virtual Power Player (VPP) bid formation in the smart grid context. This architecture includes a forecasting module, a resource optimization and Locational Marginal Price (LMP) computation module, and a bid formation module. Due to the involved problems characteristics, the implementation of this architecture requires the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are used for resource and load forecasting and Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) is used for energy resource scheduling. The paper presents a case study that considers a 33 bus distribution network that includes 67 distributed generators, 32 loads and 9 storage units.