970 resultados para population estimation
Resumo:
Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.
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Ductility based design of reinforced concrete structures implicitly assumes certain damage under the action of a design basis earthquake. The damage undergone by a structure needs to be quantified, so as to assess the post-seismic reparability and functionality of the structure. The paper presents an analytical method of quantification and location of seismic damage, through system identification methods. It may be noted that soft ground storied buildings are the major casualties in any earthquake and hence the example structure is a soft or weak first storied one, whose seismic response and temporal variation of damage are computed using a non-linear dynamic analysis program (IDARC) and compared with a normal structure. Time period based damage identification model is used and suitably calibrated with classic damage models. Regenerated stiffness of the three degrees of freedom model (for the three storied frame) is used to locate the damage, both on-line as well as after the seismic event. Multi resolution analysis using wavelets is also used for localized damage identification for soft storey columns.
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Inadvertent failure of power transformers has serious consequences on the power system reliability, economics and the revenue accrual. Insulation is the weakest link in the power transformer prompting periodic inspection of the status of insulation at different points in time. A close Monitoring of the electrical, chemical and such other properties on insulation as are sensitive to the amount of time-dependent degradation becomes mandatory to judge the status of the equipment. Data-driven Diagnostic Testing and Condition Monitoring (DTCM) specific to power transformer is the aspect in focus. Authors develop a Monte Carlo approach for augmenting the rather scanty experimental data normally acquired using Proto-types of power transformers. Also described is a validation procedure for estimating the accuracy of the Model so developed.
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The purpose of this study was to compare the neuropsychological performance of two frontal dysexecutive phenotypes - disinhibited&' syndrome (DS) and &'apathetic&' syndrome (AS) following a traumatic brain injury in a non-western population, Oman. Methods: The study compared the performance of DS and AS in neuropsychological measures including those tapping into verbal reasoning ability/working memory/attention planning/goal-directed behavior and affective ranges. Results: The present analysis showed that DS and AS participants did not differ on indices measuring working memory/attention and affective ranges. However, the two cohorts differed significantly in measures of planning/goal-directed behaviour. Conclusion: This study lays the groundwork for further scrutiny in delineating the different characteristics of what has been previously labelled as frontal dysexecutive phenotype. This study indicates that DS and AS are marked with specific neuropsychological deficits.
Resumo:
The insulation in a dc cable is subjected to both thermal and electric stress at the same time. While the electric stress is generic to the cable, the temperature rise in the insulation is, by and large, due to the Ohmic losses in the conductor. The consequence of this synergic effect is to reduce the maximum operating voltage and causes a premature failure of the cable. The authors examine this subject in some detail and propose a comprehensive theoretical formulation relating the maximum thermal voltage (MTV) to the physical and geometrical parameters of the insulation. The heat flow patterns and boundary conditions considered by the authors here and those found in earlier literature are provided. The MTV of a dc cable is shown to be a function of the load current apart from the resistance of the insulation. The results obtained using the expressions, developed by the authors, are compared with relevant results published in the literature and found to be in close conformity.
Resumo:
Kohonneiden kolesterolipitoisuuksien alentamisessa käytettävien statiinien hyödyt sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien estossa on vahvasti osoitettu ja niiden käyttö on niin Suomessa kuin muuallakin maailmassa kasvanut voimakkaasti – Suomessa statiininkäyttäjiä on noin 600 000. Statiinilääkitys on pitkäaikaisessakin käytössä melko hyvin siedetty, mutta yleisimpinä haittavaikutuksina voi ilmetä lihasheikkoutta, -kipua ja -kramppeja, jotka voivat edetä jopa henkeä uhkaavaksi lihasvaurioksi. Lihashaittariski suurenee suhteessa statiiniannokseen ja plasman statiinipitoisuuksiin. Statiinien plasmapitoisuuksissa, tehossa ja haittavaikutusten ilmenemisessä on suuria potilaskohtaisia eroja. SLCO1B1-geenin koodaama OATP1B1-kuljetusproteiini kuljettaa monia elimistön omia aineita ja lääkeaineita verenkierrosta solukalvon läpi maksasoluun, mm. statiineja, joiden kolesterolia alentava vaikutus ja poistuminen elimistöstä tapahtuvat pääosin maksassa. Erään SLCO1B1-geenin nukleotidimuutoksen (c.521T>C) tiedetään heikentävän OATP1B1:n kuljetustehoa. Tässä väitöskirjatyössä selvitettiin SLCO1B1-geenin perinnöllistä muuntelua suomalaisilla ja eri väestöissä maailmanlaajuisesti. Lisäksi selvitettiin SLCO1B1:n muunnosten vaikutusta eri statiinien pitoisuuksiin (farmakokinetiikka) ja vaikutuksiin (farmakodynamiikka) sekä kolesteroliaineenvaihduntaan. Näihin tutkimuksiin valittiin SLCO1B1-genotyypin perusteella terveitä vapaaehtoisia koehenkilöitä, joille annettiin eri päivinä kerta-annos kutakin tutkittavaa statiinia: fluvastatiinia, pravastatiinia, simvastatiinia, rosuvastatiinia ja atorvastatiinia. Verinäytteistä määritettiin plasman statiinien ja niiden aineenvaihduntatuotteiden sekä kolesterolin ja sen muodostumista ja imeytymistä kuvaavien merkkiaineiden pitoisuuksia. Toiminnallisesti merkittävien SLCO1B1-geenimuunnosten esiintyvyydessä todettiin suuria eroja eri väestöjen välillä. Suomalaisilla SLCO1B1 c.521TC-genotyypin (geenimuunnos toisessa vastinkromosomissa) esiintyvyys oli noin 32 % ja SLCO1B1 c.521CC-genotyypin (geenimuunnos molemmissa vastinkromosomeissa) esiintyvyys noin 4 %. Globaalisti geenimuunnosten esiintyvyys korreloi maapallon leveyspiirien kanssa siten, että matalaan transportteriaktiivisuuteen johtavat muunnokset olivat yleisimpiä pohjoisessa ja korkeaan aktiivisuuteen johtavat päiväntasaajan lähellä asuvilla väestöillä. SLCO1B1-genotyypillä oli merkittävä vaikutus statiinien plasmapitoisuksiin lukuun ottamatta fluvastatiinia. Simvastatiinihapon plasmapitoisuudet olivat keskimäärin 220 %, atorvastatiinin 140 %, pravastatiinin 90 % ja rosuvastatiinin 70 % suuremmat c.521CC-genotyypin omaavilla koehenkilöillä verrattuna normaalin c.521TT-genotyypin omaaviin. Genotyypillä ei ollut merkittävää vaikutusta minkään statiinin tehoon tässä kerta-annostutkimuksessa, mutta geenimuunnoksen kantajilla perustason kolesterolisynteesinopeus oli suurempi. Tulokset osoittavat, että SLCO1B1 c.521T>C geenimuunnos on varsin yleinen suomalaisilla ja muilla ei-afrikkalaisilla väestöillä. Tämä geenimuunnos voi altistaa erityisesti simvastatiinin, mutta myös atorvastatiinin, pravastatiinin ja rosuvastatiinin, aiheuttamille lihashaitoille suurentamalla niiden plasmapitoisuuksia. SLCO1B1:n geenimuunnoksen testaamista voidaan tulevaisuudessa käyttää apuna valittaessa sopivaa statiinilääkitystä ja -annosta potilaalle, ja näin parantaa sekä statiinihoidon turvallisuutta että tehoa.
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Parallel programming and effective partitioning of applications for embedded many-core architectures requires optimization algorithms. However, these algorithms have to quickly evaluate thousands of different partitions. We present a fast performance estimator embedded in a parallelizing compiler for streaming applications. The estimator combines a single execution-based simulation and an analytic approach. Experimental results demonstrate that the estimator has a mean error of 2.6% and computes its estimation 2848 times faster compared to a cycle accurate simulator.
Resumo:
Quality of life (QoL) and Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are becoming one of the key outcomes of health care due to increased respect for the subjective valuations and well-being of patients and an increasing part of the ageing population living with chronic, non-fatal conditions. Preference-based HRQoL measures enable estimation of health utility, which can be useful for rational rationing, evidence-based medicine and health policy. This study aimed to compare the individual severity and public health burden of major chronic conditions in Finland, including and focusing on reliably diagnosed psychiatric conditions. The study is based on the Health 2000 survey, a representative general population survey of 8028 Finns aged 30 and over. Depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were diagnosed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). HRQoL was measured with the 15D and the EQ-5D, with 83% response rate. This study found that people with psychiatric disorders had the lowest 15D HRQoL scores at all ages, in comparison to other main groups of chronic conditions. Considering 29 individual conditions, three of the four most severe (on 15D) were psychiatric disorders; the most severe was Parkinson s disease. Of the psychiatric disorders, chronic conditions that have sometimes been considered relatively mild - dysthymia, agoraphobia, generalized anxiety disorder and social phobia - were found to be the most severe. This was explained both by the severity of the impact of these disorders on mental health domains of HRQoL, and also by the fact that decreases were widespread on most dimensions of HRQoL. Considering the public health burden of conditions, musculoskeletal disorders were associated with the largest burden, followed by psychiatric disorders. Psychiatric disorders were associated with the largest burden at younger ages. Of individual conditions, the largest burden found was for depressive disorders, followed by urinary incontinence and arthrosis of the hip and knee. The public health burden increased greatly with age, so the ageing of the Finnish population will mean that the disease burden caused by chronic conditions will increase by a quarter up to year 2040, if morbidity patterns do not change. Investigating alcohol consumption and HRQoL revealed that although abstainers had poorer HRQoL than moderate drinkers, this was mainly due to many abstainers being former drinkers and having the poorest HRQoL. Moderate drinkers did not have significantly better HRQoL than abstainers who were not former drinkers. Psychiatric disorders are associated with a large part of the non-fatal disease burden in Finland. In particular anxiety disorders appear to be more severe and have a larger public health burden than previously thought.
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We provide analytical models for capacity evaluation of an infrastructure IEEE 802.11 based network carrying TCP controlled file downloads or full-duplex packet telephone calls. In each case the analytical models utilize the attempt probabilities from a well known fixed-point based saturation analysis. For TCP controlled file downloads, following Bruno et al. (In Networking '04, LNCS 2042, pp. 626-637), we model the number of wireless stations (STAs) with ACKs as a Markov renewal process embedded at packet success instants. In our work, analysis of the evolution between the embedded instants is done by using saturation analysis to provide state dependent attempt probabilities. We show that in spite of its simplicity, our model works well, by comparing various simulated quantities, such as collision probability, with values predicted from our model. Next we consider N constant bit rate VoIP calls terminating at N STAs. We model the number of STAs that have an up-link voice packet as a Markov renewal process embedded at so called channel slot boundaries. Analysis of the evolution over a channel slot is done using saturation analysis as before. We find that again the AP is the bottleneck, and the system can support (in the sense of a bound on the probability of delay exceeding a given value) a number of calls less than that at which the arrival rate into the AP exceeds the average service rate applied to the AP. Finally, we extend the analytical model for VoIP calls to determine the call capacity of an 802.11b WLAN in a situation where VoIP calls originate from two different types of coders. We consider N-1 calls originating from Type 1 codecs and N-2 calls originating from Type 2 codecs. For G711 and G729 voice coders, we show that the analytical model again provides accurate results in comparison with simulations.
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In this paper a nonlinear optimal controller has been designed for aerodynamic control during the reentry phase of the Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). The controller has been designed based on a recently developed technique Optimal Dynamic Inversion (ODI). For full state feedback the controller has required full information about the system states. In this work an Extended Kalman filter (EKF) is developed to estimate the states. The vehicle (RLV) has been has been consider as a nonlinear Six-Degree-Of-Freedom (6-DOF) model. The simulation results shows that EKF gives a very good estimation of the states and it is working well with ODI. The resultant trajectories are very similar to those obtained by perfect state feedback using ODI only.
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The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.
Resumo:
Cyclosporine is an immunosuppressant drug with a narrow therapeutic index and large variability in pharmacokinetics. To improve cyclosporine dose individualization in children, we used population pharmacokinetic modeling to study the effects of developmental, clinical, and genetic factors on cyclosporine pharmacokinetics in altogether 176 subjects (age range: 0.36–20.2 years) before and up to 16 years after renal transplantation. Pre-transplantation test doses of cyclosporine were given intravenously (3 mg/kg) and orally (10 mg/kg), on separate occasions, followed by blood sampling for 24 hours (n=175). After transplantation, in a total of 137 patients, cyclosporine concentration was quantified at trough, two hours post-dose, or with dose-interval curves. One-hundred-four of the studied patients were genotyped for 17 putatively functionally significant sequence variations in the ABCB1, SLCO1B1, ABCC2, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, and NR1I2 genes. Pharmacokinetic modeling was performed with the nonlinear mixed effects modeling computer program, NONMEM. A 3-compartment population pharmacokinetic model with first order absorption without lag-time was used to describe the data. The most important covariate affecting systemic clearance and distribution volume was allometrically scaled body weight i.e. body weight**3/4 for clearance and absolute body weight for volume of distribution. The clearance adjusted by absolute body weight declined with age and pre-pubertal children (< 8 years) had an approximately 25% higher clearance/body weight (L/h/kg) than did older children. Adjustment of clearance for allometric body weight removed its relationship to age after the first year of life. This finding is consistent with a gradual reduction in relative liver size towards adult values, and a relatively constant CYP3A content in the liver from about 6–12 months of age to adulthood. The other significant covariates affecting cyclosporine clearance and volume of distribution were hematocrit, plasma cholesterol, and serum creatinine, explaining up to 20%–30% of inter-individual differences before transplantation. After transplantation, their predictive role was smaller, as the variations in hematocrit, plasma cholesterol, and serum creatinine were also smaller. Before transplantation, no clinical or demographic covariates were found to affect oral bioavailability, and no systematic age-related changes in oral bioavailability were observed. After transplantation, older children receiving cyclosporine twice daily as the gelatine capsule microemulsion formulation had an about 1.25–1.3 times higher bioavailability than did the younger children receiving the liquid microemulsion formulation thrice daily. Moreover, cyclosporine oral bioavailability increased over 1.5-fold in the first month after transplantation, returning thereafter gradually to its initial value in 1–1.5 years. The largest cyclosporine doses were administered in the first 3–6 months after transplantation, and thereafter the single doses of cyclosporine were often smaller than 3 mg/kg. Thus, the results suggest that cyclosporine displays dose-dependent, saturable pre-systemic metabolism even at low single doses, whereas complete saturation of CYP3A4 and MDR1 (P-glycoprotein) renders cyclosporine pharmacokinetics dose-linear at higher doses. No significant associations were found between genetic polymorphisms and cyclosporine pharmacokinetics before transplantation in the whole population for which genetic data was available (n=104). However, in children older than eight years (n=22), heterozygous and homozygous carriers of the ABCB1 c.2677T or c.1236T alleles had an about 1.3 times or 1.6 times higher oral bioavailability, respectively, than did non-carriers. After transplantation, none of the ABCB1 SNPs or any other SNPs were found to be associated with cyclosporine clearance or oral bioavailability in the whole population, in the patients older than eight years, or in the patients younger than eight years. In the whole population, in those patients carrying the NR1I2 g.-25385C–g.-24381A–g.-205_-200GAGAAG–g.7635G–g.8055C haplotype, however, the bioavailability of cyclosporine was about one tenth lower, per allele, than in non-carriers. This effect was significant also in a subgroup of patients older than eight years. Furthermore, in patients carrying the NR1I2 g.-25385C–g.-24381A–g.-205_-200GAGAAG–g.7635G–g.8055T haplotype, the bioavailability was almost one fifth higher, per allele, than in non-carriers. It may be possible to improve individualization of cyclosporine dosing in children by accounting for the effects of developmental factors (body weight, liver size), time after transplantation, and cyclosporine dosing frequency/formulation. Further studies are required on the predictive value of genotyping for individualization of cyclosporine dosing in children.
Resumo:
As Asia experiences the demographic imbalance between working and ageing populations, the need for attention in this area is highlighted. The shift of a country's age structure that results from people having small families and living long lives, where previously they had large families and lived short lives, results in more workers and fewer dependents creating economic growth, known as the demographic dividend. However for a generation after this bulge and dividend, a disproportionate number of older people must be supported by a smaller working population, a current concern in Asia with its rapidly growing number of older adults. This extended abstract draws practical and unique insights from three of the oldest and richest nations in Asia - Japan, South Korea and China, on the perspective of interactive technology design for older adults. ICT has powerful potential to ameliorate the imbalance in the population demographic through its potential to leverage various kinds of support. As HCI researchers, this is a challenge we embrace; a challenge for the ageing society of unique individuals to exploit the technologies that they have helped to create. The paper draws lessons from key sample studies, one from each country, which aimed to understand their ageing population. The insights for interaction designers are presented in the form of a practical set of reflections to guide the authors, who are in the early stages of research on technology design for older adults.