Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Improving maximum walking distance in early peripheral arterial disease: Randomised controlled trial

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of increased physical activity and cessation of smoking on the natural history of early peripheral arterial disease, We conducted a randomised controlled trial in Perth, Western Australia, involving 882 men with early peripheral arterial disease identified via population-based screening using the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and the ankle:brachial index. Members of the control group (n = 441) received usual care from their general practitioner while members of the intervention group (n = 441) were allocated to a stop smoking and keep walking regime - a combined community-based intervention of cessation of smoking (where applicable) and increased physical activity. Postal follow-up occurred at two and 12 months post-entry into the trial. The main outcome of interest was maximum walking distance. There were no statistically significant differences in the characteristics of the intervention and usual care groups at recruitment. Follow-up information at two and 12 months was available for 85% and 84% of participants, respectively. At 12 months, more men allocated to the intervention group had improved their maximum walking distance (23% vs 15%; chi(2) = 9.74, df = 2, p = 0.008). In addition, more men in the intervention group reported walking more than three times per week for recreation (34% vs 25%, p = 0.01). Although not statistically significant, more men in the intervention group who were smokers when enrolled in the trial had stopped smoking (12% vs 8%, p = 0.43). It is concluded that referral of older patients with intermittent claudication to established physiotherapy programs in the community can increase levels of physical activity and reduce disability related to peripheral arterial disease. A combination of simple and safe interventions that are readily available in the community through physiotherapists and general practitioners has the potential to improve early peripheral arterial disease.

Participation in recreational physical activity: Why do socioeconomic groups differ?

This qualitative study explored how influences on recreational physical activity (RPA) were patterned by socioeconomic position. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 10 males and 10 females in three socioeconomic groups (N = 60). Influences salient across all groups included previous opportunities, physical health, social assistance, safety, environmental aesthetics and urban design, physical and health benefits, and barriers of self-consciousness, low skill, and weather/time of year. Influences more salient to the high socioeconomic group included social benefits, achieving a balanced lifestyle, and the barrier of an unpredictable lifestyle. Influences more salient to the high and mid socioeconomic groups included efficacy, perceived need, activity demands, affiliation, emotional benefits, and the barrier of competing demands. Influences more salient to the low socioeconomic group included poor health and barriers of inconvenient access and low personal functioning. Data suggest that efforts to increase RPA in the population should include both general and socioeconomically targeted strategies.

The sit-up: complex kinematics and muscle activity in voluntary axial movement

This paper describes the kinematics and muscle activity associated with the standard sit-up, as a first step in the investigation of complex motor coordination. Eight normal human subjects lay on a force table and performed at least 15 sit-ups, with the arms across the chest and the legs straight and unconstrained. Several subjects also performed sit-ups with an additional weight added to the head. Support surface forces were recorded to calculate the location of the center of pressure and center of gravity; conventional motion analysis was used to measure segmental positions; and surface EMG was recorded from eight muscles. While the sit-up consists of two serial components, 'trunk curling' and 'footward pelvic rotation', it can be further subdivided into five phases, based on the kinematics. Phases I and II comprise trunk curling. Phase I consists of neck and upper trunk flexion, and phase II consists of lumbar trunk lifting. Phase II corresponds to the point of peak muscle contraction and maximum postural instability, the 'critical point' of the sit-up. Phases III-V comprise footward pelvic rotation. Phase III begins with pelvic rotation towards the feet. phase W with leg lowering, and phase V with contact between the legs and the support surface. The overall pattern of muscle activity was complex with times of EMG onset, peak activity, offset, and duration differing for different muscles. This complex pattern changed qualitatively from one phase to the next, suggesting that the roles of different muscles and, as a consequence, the overall form of coordination, change during the sit-up. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of Lentivirus-mediated and MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy for ovarian cancer

Transfer of the herpes simplex virus type I thymidine kinase (HSV-TK) gene into tumor cells using virus-based vectors in conjunction with ganciclovir (GCV) exposure provides a potential gene therapy strategy for the treatment of cancer. Effective gene therapy,, depends on the efficient transfer and specific targeting of therapeutic genes and their protein products to target cells. The purpose of this study was to investigate the anti-tumor effect of Lentivirus-mediated and MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy in animal models. Mouse models were generated with intraperitoneal injection of human epithelial ovarian cancer cells 3AO, which are MUC1-positive. HTV-1-based lentiviral vectors carrying VP22-TK or scFv-VP22-TK were prepared. The animals were injected intraperitoneally with lentivirus containing scFv-VP22-TK, VP22-TK followed by GCV treatment. Combined treatment of lentivirus-expressed scFv-VP22-TK or VP22-TK with GCV inhibited the proliferation and prolonged survival times compared with the control vector. The survival time of animals treated with scFv-VP22-TK/GCV was significantly longer than that of animals treated with VP22-TK/GCV (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Our results suggest that MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy can efficiently inhibit ovarian tumor growth and increase survival in a nude mouse model of ovarian carcinoma. These data support the development of this method for human clinical trials.

Triggers of subarachnoid hemorrhage - Role of physical exertion, smoking, and alcohol in the Australasian Cooperative Research on Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Study (ACROSS)

Background and Purpose - Unaccustomed strenuous physical exertion can trigger myocardial infarction, but little is known about the mechanisms precipitating subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - We identified all cases of first-ever SAH among the combined populations (2.8 million) of 4 urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Information on the type, time, and intensity of exposures in the 26 hours before the onset of SAH was ascertained by structured interviews. We used the case-crossover technique to assess the risk of SAH associated with transient exposures of moderate to extreme physical exertion, heavy cigarette smoking, and binge alcohol consumption. Results - We registered 432 first-ever cases of SAH (62% women; mean age, 56.5 years). A definite time of onset of SAH was established for 393 patients (91%), and information on the levels of physical activity in the preceding 26 hours was obtained in 338 ( 78%). Of these patients, 19% engaged in moderate to extreme exertion (greater than or equal to5 metabolic equivalents) in the 2 hours before SAH, which was associated with a tripling in the risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.6). There was no evidence of any association between heavy cigarette smoking or binge drinking and risk of SAH in the subsequent 2 hours ( OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4 to 3.7; and OR, 0.41; 95% CI, -infinity to 5.3). Habitual exercise did not appear to alter the risk of SAH associated with moderate to extreme exertion. Conclusions - Moderate to extreme physical exertion tripled the risk of SAH, but there was no association between transient heavy smoking or binge drinking and risk of SAH. These data suggest that heavy physical activity may trigger SAH.

A randomized trial comparing hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and HRT plus calcitriol in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis with vertebral fractures: Benefit of the combination on total body and hip density

We report a prospective, randomized, multi-center, open-label 2-year trial of 81 postmenopausal women aged 53-79 years with at least one minimal-trauma vertebral fracture (VF) and low (T-score below 2) lumbar bone mineral density (BMD). Group HRT received piperazine estrone sulfate (PES) 0.625 - 1.25 mg/d +/- medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) 2.5 - 5 mg/d,- group HRT/D received HRT plus calcitriol 0.25 mug bd. All with a baseline dietary calcium (Ca) of < I g/d received Ca carbonate 0.6 g nocte. Final data were on 66 - 70 patients. On HRT/D, significant (P < 0.001) BNID increases from baseline by DXA were at total body - head, trochanter, Ward's, total hip, inter-trochanter and femoral shaft (% group mean Delta 4.2, 6.1, 9.3. 3.7. 3.3 and 3.3%, respectively). On HRT, at these significant Deltas were restricted to the trochanter and sites. si Wards. Significant advantages of HRT/D over HRT were in BMD of total body (- head), total hip and trochanter (all P = 0.01). The differences in mean Delta at these sites were 1.3, 2.6 and 3.9%. At the following, both groups Improved significantly -lumbar spine (AP and lateral), forearm shaft and ultradistal tibia/fibula. The weightbearing, site - specific benefits of the combination associated with significant suppression of parathyroid hormone-suggest a beneficial effect on cortical bone. Suppression of bone turnover was significantly greater on HRT/D (serum osteocalcin P = 0.024 and urinary hydroxyproline/creatinine ratio P = 0.035). There was no significant difference in the number of patients who developed fresh VFs during the trial (HRT 8/36, 22%; HRT/D 4/34, 12% - intention to treat); likewise in the number who developed incident nonvertebral fractures. This Is the first study comparing the 2 treatments in a fracture population. The results indicate a significant benefit of calcitriol combined with HRT on total body BMD and on BNID at the hip, the major site of osteoporotic fracture.