Measures of fit in multiple correspondence analysis of crisp and fuzzy coded data

When continuous data are coded to categorical variables, two types of coding are possible: crisp coding in the form of indicator, or dummy, variables with values either 0 or 1; or fuzzy coding where each observation is transformed to a set of "degrees of membership" between 0 and 1, using co-called membership functions. It is well known that the correspondence analysis of crisp coded data, namely multiple correspondence analysis, yields principal inertias (eigenvalues) that considerably underestimate the quality of the solution in a low-dimensional space. Since the crisp data only code the categories to which each individual case belongs, an alternative measure of fit is simply to count how well these categories are predicted by the solution. Another approach is to consider multiple correspondence analysis equivalently as the analysis of the Burt matrix (i.e., the matrix of all two-way cross-tabulations of the categorical variables), and then perform a joint correspondence analysis to fit just the off-diagonal tables of the Burt matrix - the measure of fit is then computed as the quality of explaining these tables only. The correspondence analysis of fuzzy coded data, called "fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis", suffers from the same problem, albeit attenuated. Again, one can count how many correct predictions are made of the categories which have highest degree of membership. But here one can also defuzzify the results of the analysis to obtain estimated values of the original data, and then calculate a measure of fit in the familiar percentage form, thanks to the resultant orthogonal decomposition of variance. Furthermore, if one thinks of fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis as explaining the two-way associations between variables, a fuzzy Burt matrix can be computed and the same strategy as in the crisp case can be applied to analyse the off-diagonal part of this matrix. In this paper these alternative measures of fit are defined and applied to a data set of continuous meteorological variables, which are coded crisply and fuzzily into three categories. Measuring the fit is further discussed when the data set consists of a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.

PEG-b-PPS diblock copolymer aggregates for hydrophobic drug solubilization and release: cyclosporin A as an example

Micelles formed from amphiphilic block copolymers have been explored in recent years as carriers for hydrophobic drugs. In an aqueous environment, the hydrophobic blocks form the core of the micelle, which can host lipophilic drugs, while the hydrophilic blocks form the corona or outer shell and stabilize the interface between the hydrophobic core and the external medium. In the present work, mesophase behavior and drug encapsulation were explored in the AB block copolymeric amphiphile composed of poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) as a hydrophile and poly(propylene sulfide) PPS as a hydrophobe, using the immunosuppressive drug cyclosporin A (CsA) as an example of a highly hydrophobic drug. Block copolymers with a degree of polymerization of 44 on the PEG and of 10, 20 and 40 on the PPS respectively (abbreviated as PEG44-b-PPS10, PEG44-b-PPS20, PEG44-b-PPS40) were synthesized and characterized. Drug-loaded polymeric micelles were obtained by the cosolvent displacement method as well as the remarkably simple method of dispersing the warm polymer melt, with drug dissolved therein, in warm water. Effective drug solubility up to 2 mg/mL in aqueous media was facilitated by the PEG- b-PPS micelles, with loading levels up to 19% w/w being achieved. Release was burst-free and sustained over periods of 9-12 days. These micelles demonstrate interesting solubilization characteristics, due to the low glass transition temperature, highly hydrophobic nature, and good solvent properties of the PPS block

Topographic organization of V1 projections through the corpus callosum in humans.

The visual cortex in each hemisphere is linked to the opposite hemisphere by axonal projections that pass through the splenium of the corpus callosum. Visual-callosal connections in humans and macaques are found along the V1/V2 border where the vertical meridian is represented. Here we identify the topography of V1 vertical midline projections through the splenium within six human subjects with normal vision using diffusion-weighted MR imaging and probabilistic diffusion tractography. Tractography seed points within the splenium were classified according to their estimated connectivity profiles to topographic subregions of V1, as defined by functional retinotopic mapping. First, we report a ventral-dorsal mapping within the splenium with fibers from ventral V1 (representing the upper visual field) projecting to the inferior-anterior corner of the splenium and fibers from dorsal V1 (representing the lower visual field) projecting to the superior-posterior end. Second, we also report an eccentricity gradient of projections from foveal-to-peripheral V1 subregions running in the anterior-superior to posterior-inferior direction, orthogonal to the dorsal-ventral mapping. These results confirm and add to a previous diffusion MRI study (Dougherty et al., 2005) which identified a dorsal/ventral mapping of human splenial fibers. These findings yield a more detailed view of the structural organization of the splenium than previously reported and offer new opportunities to study structural plasticity in the visual system.

Determination of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate in human plasma by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

Introduction: Oseltamivir phosphate (OP), the prodrug of oseltamivir carboxylate (OC; active metabolite), is marketed since 10 years for the treatment of seasonal influenza flu. It has recently received renewed attention because of the threat of avian flu H5N1 in 2006-7 and the 2009-10 A/H1N1 pandemic. However, relatively few studies have been published on OP and OC clinical pharmacokinetics. The disposition of OC and the dosage adaptation of OP in specific populations, such as young children or patients undergoing extrarenal epuration, have also received poor attention. An analytical method was thus developed to assess OP and OC plasma concentrations in patients receiving OP and presenting with comorbidities or requiring intensive care. Methods: A high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry method (HPLC-MS/MS) requiring 100-µL aliquot of plasma for quantification within 6 min of OP and OC was developed. A combination of protein precipitation with acetonitrile, followed by dilution of supernant in suitable buffered solvent was used as an extraction procedure. After reverse phase chromatographic separation, quantification was performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. Deuterated isotopic compounds of OP and OC were used as internal standards. Results: The method is sensitive (lower limit of quantification: 5 ng/mL for OP and OC), accurate (intra-/inter-assay bias for OP and OC: 8.5%/5.5% and 3.7/0.7%, respectively) and precise (intra-/inter-assay CV%: 5.2%/6.5% and 6.3%/9.2%, respectively) over the clinically relevant concentration range (upper limits of quantification 5000 ng/mL). Of importance, OP, as in other previous reports, was found not to be stable ex vivo in plasma on standard anticoagulants (i.e. EDTA, heparin or citrate). This poor stability of OP has been prevented by collecting blood samples on commercial fluoride/oxalate tubes. Conclusions: This new simple, rapid and robust HPLC-MS/MS assay for quantification of OP and OC plasma concentrations offers an efficient tool for concentration monitoring of OC. Its exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics (e.g. renal clearance). The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients appears therefore questionable. However, pharmacokinetic studies are still needed to extend knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

Utilização de bioensaios e marcadores moleculares para detecção da resistência de coleópteros de produtos armazenados a inseticidas

The qualitative and quantitative losses caused by stored product insects are of great concern, and since there is only a few active ingredients available for their control it is very important to have a frequent insect resistance monitoring. The objective of this research is to evaluate combination of bioassays and molecular marker techniques to detect insecticide resistance in stored product beetles. The Coleoptera species used for the tests were Sitophilus oryzae (L.) (Curculionidae), Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) (Bostrichidae) and Oryzaephilus surinamensis (L.) (Silvanidae). For the bioassays it was used the impregnated filter paper technique, applying 1 mL of deltamethrin (K-Obiol 25 CE TM) using four concentrations and five replicates, including a control with solvent only. Ten adults of each species were liberated separately on each dish. The mortality was evaluated after 24 h and resistance determined by probit analysis. The samples used for the PCR-RAPD were either in vivo or preserved in 70% ethanol, kept in -18°C freezer. After extraction, quantification and DNA quality analysis, the 25 µL samples had the DNA amplified and tested with six primers. The bioassays showed a crescent mortality proportional to insecticide concentration. The resistance factor for R. dominica, S. zeamais and S. oryzae were: 2,2; 3,2 and 9,2, respectively, compared to the susceptible populations of each species. The PCR-RAPD analysis revealed bands which indicate inter and intraspecific variability in the populations, but it was not possible to correlate them to resistance. The association of bioassay and PCR-RAPD represents a precise and valuable tool for resistance management of stored product insects, but more populations and primers should be tested.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Interbank liquidity crunch and the firm credit crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 crisis

We study the credit supply effects of the unexpected freeze of the Europeaninterbank market, using exhaustive Portuguese loan-level data. We find thatbanks that rely more on interbank borrowing before the crisis decrease theircredit supply more during the crisis. The credit supply reduction is stronger forfirms that are smaller, with weaker banking relationships. Small firms cannotcompensate the credit crunch with other sources of debt. Furthermore, theimpact of illiquidity on the credit crunch is stronger for less solvent banks.Finally, there are no overall positive effects of central bank liquidity, but higherhoarding of liquidity.

The brain uses single-trial multisensory memories to discriminate without awareness.

Multisensory experiences enhance perceptions and facilitate memory retrieval processes, even when only unisensory information is available for accessing such memories. Using fMRI, we identified human brain regions involved in discriminating visual stimuli according to past multisensory vs. unisensory experiences. Subjects performed a completely orthogonal task, discriminating repeated from initial image presentations intermixed within a continuous recognition task. Half of initial presentations were multisensory, and all repetitions were exclusively visual. Despite only single-trial exposures to initial image presentations, accuracy in indicating image repetitions was significantly improved by past auditory-visual multisensory experiences over images only encountered visually. Similarly, regions within the lateral-occipital complex-areas typically associated with visual object recognition processes-were more active to visual stimuli with multisensory than unisensory pasts. Additional differential responses were observed in the anterior cingulate and frontal cortices. Multisensory experiences are registered by the brain even when of no immediate behavioral relevance and can be used to categorize memories. These data reveal the functional efficacy of multisensory processing.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

A estação arqueológica de Salamansa (ilha de São Vicente, República de Cabo Verde)

Apresentam‑se os principais resultados obtidos nas duas missões arqueológicas patrocinadas pelo Centro Português de Actividades Subaquáticas (CPAS) à ilha de São Vicente (República de Cabo Verde), em 1998 e em 2005. Em 1998, confirmou‑se o efectivo interesse arqueológico do sítio, localizado sobre o mar, em local abrigado da vasta baía de Salamansa, situada na parte setentrional da ilha, tendo‑se registado a respectiva extensão e estratigrafia e procedido à colheita de amostras para datação. Embora os resultados dessa campanha tivessem sido publicados, indicando estação de carácter habitacional, revelada pela notável acumulação de conchas, acompanhada de abundantes fragmentos de cerâmicas manuais, de produção africana, mantinha‑se indefinida a sua verdadeira natureza. Impunha‑se, assim, proceder à escavação integral da área que ainda subsistia da estação — sujeita de forma contínua a forte erosão marinha — bem como à colheita de novos materiais para datação, de forma a confirmar as conclusões preliminares anteriormente obtidas, objectivos que se concretizaram em 2005. Deste modo, foi possível concluir que, contrariando a hipótese, de início considerada, de poder corresponder a um testemunho da ocupação da ilha em época anterior à chegada dos Portugueses — hipótese que já as primeiras datas de radiocarbono contradiziam — se trata de um sítio onde uma unidade habitacional construída por muros de pedra seca, de planta ortogonal, revela inspiração europeia, aliás sublinhada pelos materiais exumados, onde estão representados produtos com tal origem, como cachimbos de caulino, vidros, faianças portuguesas, e projécteis de armas de fogo, a par de objectos oriundos do Extremo Oriente, num quadro dominado pelas produções cerâmicas africanas. Esta situação evidencia um estabelecimento cuja ocupação se centrou no século XVII, conforme indicam os materiais recolhidos e os resultados das datações obtidas, francamente aberto aos contactos de longa distância, apesar do isolamento do local escolhido. Os restos faunísticos recolhidos, com a presença deburro e de boi, sugerem um estacionamento sedentário, sendo a alimentação assegurada essencialmente pela captura de tartarugas, pela pesca e pela recolecção de moluscos marinhos (especialmente grandes lapas) e complementada pelo consumo de cabra, que poderia ser doméstica ou caçada, dado o estado selvagem a que retornou ali esta espécie. na última parte do trabalho, discutem‑se as diversas hipóteses susceptíveis de explicar esta estação — desde um entreposto comercial relacionado com a exploração agro‑pecuária da ilha de Santo Antão, passando por pequeno estabelecimento especializado de apoio à navegação, com a produção de carne salgada de tartaruga, até ter constituído refúgio relacionado com a intensa pirataria vigente à época no arquipélago, tendo presente os elementos históricos conhecidos, que, aliás, indicam que o início da ocupação permanente de São Vicente só se produziu a partir da segunda década do século XIX. Seja como for, a forte componente cultural africana revelada pelo espólio destes primeiros ocupantes da ilha expressa‑se também pelos rituais que terão envolvido o abandono do estabelecimento, com o enterramento de dois vasos emborcados sob o chão da habitação explorada, e a deposição de uma pequena taça, nas mesmas circunstâncias, junto à parede da mesma, do lado externo.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank

We model systemic risk in an interbank market. Banks face liquidityneeds as consumers are uncertain about where they need to consume. Interbank credit lines allow to cope with these liquidity shocks while reducing the cost of maintaining reserves. However, the interbank market exposes the system to a coordination failure(gridlock equilibrium) even if all banks are solvent. When one bankis insolvent, the stability of the banking system is affected in various ways depending on the patterns of payments across locations. We investigate the ability of the banking industry to withstand the insolvency of one bank and whether the closure ofone bank generates a chain reaction on the rest of the system. Weanalyze the coordinating role of the Central Bank in preventing payments systemic repercussions and we examine the justification ofthe Too-big-to-fail-policy.

Biplots of fuzzy coded data

A biplot, which is the multivariate generalization of the two-variable scatterplot, can be used to visualize the results of many multivariate techniques, especially those that are based on the singular value decomposition. We consider data sets consisting of continuous-scale measurements, their fuzzy coding and the biplots that visualize them, using a fuzzy version of multiple correspondence analysis. Of special interest is the way quality of fit of the biplot is measured, since it is well-known that regular (i.e., crisp) multiple correspondence analysis seriously under-estimates this measure. We show how the results of fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis can be defuzzified to obtain estimated values of the original data, and prove that this implies an orthogonal decomposition of variance. This permits a measure of fit to be calculated in the familiar form of a percentage of explained variance, which is directly comparable to the corresponding fit measure used in principal component analysis of the original data. The approach is motivated initially by its application to a simulated data set, showing how the fuzzy approach can lead to diagnosing nonlinear relationships, and finally it is applied to a real set of meteorological data.

Energy substrate used by workers of leaf-cutting ants during nest excavation

Energy substrate used by workers of leaf-cutting ants during nest excavation. In this study we aimed to ascertain whether leaf-cutting ant workers lose body reserves (fat or sugars) as a function of nest excavation. For each treatment, we isolated 10 workers of Atta sexdens into two experimental groups, Control (C- without excavation) and Soil (S- with excavation), which were kept for different time intervals (0, 24, 48 or 72 hours), totaling 700 tested workers. We then determined the concentration of soluble carbohydrates and total lipid content in them. The total carbohydrates were determined colorimetrically, based on the reaction between carbohydrates and sulfuric acid-phenol. For determination of lipids, the insects were immersed in organic solvent until they reached a constant weight. Our results showed that carbohydrates are consumed during nest excavation activities. In the experimental groups S24, S48 and S72, there was an average reduction of 5.82 (20.42%), 14.31 (44.96%) and 13.27 (43.96%) µ.mg-1 in soluble sugar when compared with the experimental groups that did not excavate. Furthermore, the lipids were not used during this activity. With respect to dry mass of the workers, their values were C0 = 8%, C24 = 10.4%, C48 = 9.2%, C72 = 10%, S24 = 9.2%, S48 = 8.7% and S72 = 8.5%. Our results show experimentally that the source of energy for nest excavation is carbohydrates, whereas lipids are conserved for other activities.