European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

Automatic target validation based on neuroscientific literature mining for tractography.

Target identification for tractography studies requires solid anatomical knowledge validated by an extensive literature review across species for each seed structure to be studied. Manual literature review to identify targets for a given seed region is tedious and potentially subjective. Therefore, complementary approaches would be useful. We propose to use text-mining models to automatically suggest potential targets from the neuroscientific literature, full-text articles and abstracts, so that they can be used for anatomical connection studies and more specifically for tractography. We applied text-mining models to three structures: two well-studied structures, since validated deep brain stimulation targets, the internal globus pallidus and the subthalamic nucleus and, the nucleus accumbens, an exploratory target for treating psychiatric disorders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to document the projections of the three selected structures and compared it with the targets proposed by text-mining models, both in rat and primate (including human). We ran probabilistic tractography on the nucleus accumbens and compared the output with the results of the text-mining models and literature review. Overall, text-mining the literature could find three times as many targets as two man-weeks of curation could. The overall efficiency of the text-mining against literature review in our study was 98% recall (at 36% precision), meaning that over all the targets for the three selected seeds, only one target has been missed by text-mining. We demonstrate that connectivity for a structure of interest can be extracted from a very large amount of publications and abstracts. We believe this tool will be useful in helping the neuroscience community to facilitate connectivity studies of particular brain regions. The text mining tools used for the study are part of the HBP Neuroinformatics Platform, publicly available at http://connectivity-brainer.rhcloud.com/.

Wavelet Filter Parameterization for Compression of Spectral Images

Vaatimus kuvatiedon tiivistämisestä on tullut entistä ilmeisemmäksi viimeisen kymmenen vuoden aikana kuvatietoon perustuvien sovellutusten myötä. Nykyisin kiinnitetään erityistä huomiota spektrikuviin, joiden tallettaminen ja siirto vaativat runsaasti levytilaa ja kaistaa. Aallokemuunnos on osoittautunut hyväksi ratkaisuksi häviöllisessä tiedontiivistämisessä. Sen toteutus alikaistakoodauksessa perustuu aallokesuodattimiin ja ongelmana on sopivan aallokesuodattimen valinta erilaisille tiivistettäville kuville. Tässä työssä esitetään katsaus tiivistysmenetelmiin, jotka perustuvat aallokemuunnokseen. Ortogonaalisten suodattimien määritys parametrisoimalla on työn painopisteenä. Työssä todetaan myös kahden erilaisen lähestymistavan samanlaisuus algebrallisten yhtälöiden avulla. Kokeellinen osa sisältää joukon testejä, joilla perustellaan parametrisoinnin tarvetta. Erilaisille kuville tarvitaan erilaisia suodattimia sekä erilaiset tiivistyskertoimet saavutetaan eri suodattimilla. Lopuksi toteutetaan spektrikuvien tiivistys aallokemuunnoksen avulla.

Kuumahierteen laadun ja energiankulutuksen optimointi

Kuumahierteen menestyksekäs kehitys on vähentänyt kemiallisten massojen käyttöä painopapereiden raaka-aineena. Hiertäminen kuluttaa kuitenkin huomattavasti enemmän energiaa muihin massanvalmistusmenetelmiin verrattuna. Tämän työn tavoitteena oli optimoida Stora Enson Varkauden tehtaiden uuden TMP-linjan massan laatua ja energiankäyttöä. Työ koostui jauhimien monimuuttujakoeajoista, Metso Paperin painekoeajosta sekä koko TMP-linjaa koskevista tarkistusajoista. Monimuuttujakoeajot suoritettiin 600 t vuorokausituotannolla 60 % kuorimohakesuhteella. Jauhatuksen kokonaisenergiankulutuksen rajaksi sovittiin vanhojen jauhinlinjojen perusteella 2,3 MWh/t. Massan laadun kriittisimmäksi tekijäksi osoittautui vetoindeksi, joten optimoinnin tavoitteeksi muodostui vetoindeksin kehittäminen annetun energiankulutuksen puitteissa. Kuumahierteen laadun kehittymisen kannalta merkittävin vaihe oli hakkeen kuituuntuminen. Kuituuntumisen tulee tapahtua riittävän korkeassa lämpötilassa ligniinin pehmenemisen ja kuitujen joustavuuden saavuttamiseksi sekä alhaisella intensiteetillä, jolloin kuituja ei katkota. Ensimmäisen vaiheen jauhatuksen EOK:n on oltava vähintään 1,00 MWh/t, jolloin toisen vaiheen jauhatus vaatii energiaa vähintään 0,70 MWh/t. Rejektijauhimen tuotantotason tulisi olla mahdollisimman suuri ja intensiiviseen jauhatukseen käytettävän ominaisenergian noin 1,00 MWh/t.

Ultrastructural study of spermiogenesis and the spermatozoon of the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009, a parasite of the catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes, Clariidae)

Spermiogenesis in the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009 shows typical characteristics of the type I spermiogenesis. These include the formation of distal cytoplasmic protrusions forming the differentiation zones, lined by cortical microtubules and containing two centrioles. An electron-dense material is present in the apical region of the differentiation zone during the early stages of spermiogenesis. Each centriole is associated to a striated rootlet, being separated by an intercentriolar body. Two free and unequal flagella originate from the centrioles and develop on the lateral sides of the differentiation zone. A median cytoplasmic process is formed between the flagella. Later these flagella rotate, become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process and finally fuse proximodistally with the latter. It is interesting to note that both flagellar growth and rotation are asynchronous. Later, the nucleus enlarges and penetrates into the spermatid body. Finally, the ring of arching membranes is strangled and the young spermatozoon is detached from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon presents two axonemes of the 9 +"1" trepaxonematan pattern, crested body, parallel nucleus and cortical microtubules, and glycogen granules. Thus, it corresponds to the type II spermatozoon, described in almost all Proteocephalidea. The anterior extremity of the gamete is characterized by the presence of an apical cone surrounded by the lateral projections of the crested body. An arc formed by some thick and parallel cortical microtubules appears at the level of the centriole. They surround the centriole and later the first axoneme. This arc of electron-dense microtubules disorganizes when the second axoneme appears, and then two parallel rows of thin cortical microtubules are observed. The posterior extremity of the male gamete exhibits some cortical microtubules. This type of posterior extremity has never been described in proteocephalidean cestodes. The ultrastructural features of the spermatozoon/spermiogenesis of the Proteocephalidea species are analyzed and compared.

Spermiogenesis and ultrastructure of the spermatozoon of Wardula capitellata (Digenea, Mesometridae), an intestinal parasite of the sparid teleost Sarpa salpa in Senegal

The spermiogenesis process in Wardula capitellata begins with the formation of a differentiation zone containing two centrioles associated with striated rootlets and an intercentriolar body. Each centriole develops into a free flagellum orthogonal to a median cytoplasmic process. Later these flagella rotate and become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process, which already exhibits two electron-dense areas and spinelike bodies before its proximodistal fusion with the flagella. The final stage of the spermiogenesis is characterized by the constriction of the ring of arched membranes, giving rise to the young spermatozoon, which detaches from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon of W. capitellata presents most of the classical characters reported in digenean spermatozoa such as two axonemes of different lengths of the 9 + '1' trepaxonematan pattern, nucleus, mitochondrion, two bundles of parallel cortical microtubules and granules of glycogen. However, some peculiarities such as two lateral expansions accompanied by external ornamentation of the plasma membrane and spinelike bodies characterize the mature sperm. Moreover, a new spermatological character is described for the first time, the so-called cytoplasmic ornamented buttons.

Ultrastructural study of spermiogenesis and the spermatozoon of the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009, a parasite of the catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes, Clariidae)

Spermiogenesis in the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009 shows typical characteristics of the type I spermiogenesis. These include the formation of distal cytoplasmic protrusions forming the differentiation zones, lined by cortical microtubules and containing two centrioles. An electron-dense material is present in the apical region of the differentiation zone during the early stages of spermiogenesis. Each centriole is associated to a striated rootlet, being separated by an intercentriolar body. Two free and unequal flagella originate from the centrioles and develop on the lateral sides of the differentiation zone. A median cytoplasmic process is formed between the flagella. Later these flagella rotate, become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process and finally fuse proximodistally with the latter. It is interesting to note that both flagellar growth and rotation are asynchronous. Later, the nucleus enlarges and penetrates into the spermatid body. Finally, the ring of arching membranes is strangled and the young spermatozoon is detached from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon presents two axonemes of the 9 +"1" trepaxonematan pattern, crested body, parallel nucleus and cortical microtubules, and glycogen granules. Thus, it corresponds to the type II spermatozoon, described in almost all Proteocephalidea. The anterior extremity of the gamete is characterized by the presence of an apical cone surrounded by the lateral projections of the crested body. An arc formed by some thick and parallel cortical microtubules appears at the level of the centriole. They surround the centriole and later the first axoneme. This arc of electron-dense microtubules disorganizes when the second axoneme appears, and then two parallel rows of thin cortical microtubules are observed. The posterior extremity of the male gamete exhibits some cortical microtubules. This type of posterior extremity has never been described in proteocephalidean cestodes. The ultrastructural features of the spermatozoon/spermiogenesis of the Proteocephalidea species are analyzed and compared.

Spermiogenesis and ultrastructure of the spermatozoon of Wardula capitellata (Digenea, Mesometridae), an intestinal parasite of the sparid teleost Sarpa salpa in Senegal

The spermiogenesis process in Wardula capitellata begins with the formation of a differentiation zone containing two centrioles associated with striated rootlets and an intercentriolar body. Each centriole develops into a free flagellum orthogonal to a median cytoplasmic process. Later these flagella rotate and become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process, which already exhibits two electron-dense areas and spinelike bodies before its proximodistal fusion with the flagella. The final stage of the spermiogenesis is characterized by the constriction of the ring of arched membranes, giving rise to the young spermatozoon, which detaches from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon of W. capitellata presents most of the classical characters reported in digenean spermatozoa such as two axonemes of different lengths of the 9 + '1' trepaxonematan pattern, nucleus, mitochondrion, two bundles of parallel cortical microtubules and granules of glycogen. However, some peculiarities such as two lateral expansions accompanied by external ornamentation of the plasma membrane and spinelike bodies characterize the mature sperm. Moreover, a new spermatological character is described for the first time, the so-called cytoplasmic ornamented buttons.

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical modelling of fold nappe formation, basement-cover deformation and slab detachment with applications to the helvetic nappe system (W Switzerland)

Many three-dimensional (3-D) structures in rock, which formed during the deformation of the Earth's crust and lithosphere, are controlled by a difference in mechanical strength between rock units and are often the result of a geometrical instability. Such structures are, for example, folds, pinch-and-swell structures (due to necking) or cuspate-lobate structures (mullions). These struc-tures occur from the centimeter to the kilometer scale and the related deformation processes con-trol the formation of, for example, fold-and-thrust belts and extensional sedimentary basins or the deformation of the basement-cover interface. The 2-D deformation processes causing these structures are relatively well studied, however, several processes during large-strain 3-D defor-mation are still incompletely understood. One of these 3-D processes is the lateral propagation of these structures, such as fold and cusp propagation in a direction orthogonal to the shortening direction or neck propagation in direction orthogonal to the extension direction. Especially, we are interested in fold nappes which are recumbent folds with amplitudes usually exceeding 10 km and they have been presumably formed by ductile shearing. They often exhibit a constant sense of shearing and a non-linear increase of shear strain towards their overturned limb. The fold axes of the Morcles fold nappe in western Switzerland plunges to the ENE whereas the fold axes in the more eastern Doldenhorn nappe plunges to the WSW. These opposite plunge direc-tions characterize the Rawil depression (Wildstrubel depression). The Morcles nappe is mainly the result of layer parallel contraction and shearing. During the compression the massive lime-stones were more competent than the surrounding marls and shales, which led to the buckling characteristics of the Morcles nappe, especially in the north-dipping normal limb. The Dolden-horn nappe exhibits only a minor overturned fold limb. There are still no 3-D numerical studies which investigate the fundamental dynamics of the formation of the large-scale 3-D structure including the Morcles and Doldenhorn nappes and the related Rawil depression. We study the 3-D evolution of geometrical instabilities and fold nappe formation with numerical simulations based on the finite element method (FEM). Simulating geometrical instabilities caused by sharp variations of mechanical strength between rock units requires a numerical algorithm that can accurately resolve material interfaces for large differences in material properties (e.g. between limestone and shale) and for large deformations. Therefore, our FE algorithm combines a nu-merical contour-line technique and a deformable Lagrangian mesh with re-meshing. With this combined method it is possible to accurately follow the initial material contours with the FE mesh and to accurately resolve the geometrical instabilities. The algorithm can simulate 3-D de-formation for a visco-elastic rheology. The viscous rheology is described by a power-law flow law. The code is used to study the 3-D fold nappe formation, the lateral propagation of folding and also the lateral propagation of cusps due to initial half graben geometry. Thereby, the small initial geometrical perturbations for folding and necking are exactly followed by the FE mesh, whereas the initial large perturbation describing a half graben is defined by a contour line inter-secting the finite elements. Further, the 3-D algorithm is applied to 3-D viscous nacking during slab detachment. The results from various simulations are compared with 2-D resulats and a 1-D analytical solution. -- On retrouve beaucoup de structures en 3 dimensions (3-D) dans les roches qui ont pour origines une déformation de la lithosphère terrestre. Ces structures sont par exemple des plis, des boudins (pinch-and-swell) ou des mullions (cuspate-lobate) et sont présentés de l'échelle centimétrique à kilométrique. Mécaniquement, ces structures peuvent être expliquées par une différence de résistance entre les différentes unités de roches et sont généralement le fruit d'une instabilité géométrique. Ces différences mécaniques entre les unités contrôlent non seulement les types de structures rencontrées, mais également le type de déformation (thick skin, thin skin) et le style tectonique (bassin d'avant pays, chaîne d'avant pays). Les processus de la déformation en deux dimensions (2-D) formant ces structures sont relativement bien compris. Cependant, lorsque l'on ajoute la troisiéme dimension, plusieurs processus ne sont pas complètement compris lors de la déformation à large échelle. L'un de ces processus est la propagation latérale des structures, par exemple la propagation de plis ou de mullions dans la direction perpendiculaire à l'axe de com-pression, ou la propagation des zones d'amincissement des boudins perpendiculairement à la direction d'extension. Nous sommes particulièrement intéressés les nappes de plis qui sont des nappes de charriage en forme de plis couché d'une amplitude plurikilométrique et étant formées par cisaillement ductile. La plupart du temps, elles exposent un sens de cisaillement constant et une augmentation non linéaire de la déformation vers la base du flanc inverse. Un exemple connu de nappes de plis est le domaine Helvétique dans les Alpes de l'ouest. Une de ces nap-pes est la Nappe de Morcles dont l'axe de pli plonge E-NE tandis que de l'autre côté de la dépression du Rawil (ou dépression du Wildstrubel), la nappe du Doldenhorn (équivalent de la nappe de Morcles) possède un axe de pli plongeant O-SO. La forme particulière de ces nappes est due à l'alternance de couches calcaires mécaniquement résistantes et de couches mécanique-ment faibles constituées de schistes et de marnes. Ces différences mécaniques dans les couches permettent d'expliquer les plissements internes à la nappe, particulièrement dans le flanc inver-se de la nappe de Morcles. Il faut également noter que le développement du flanc inverse des nappes n'est pas le même des deux côtés de la dépression de Rawil. Ainsi la nappe de Morcles possède un important flanc inverse alors que la nappe du Doldenhorn en est presque dépour-vue. A l'heure actuelle, aucune étude numérique en 3-D n'a été menée afin de comprendre la dynamique fondamentale de la formation des nappes de Morcles et du Doldenhorn ainsi que la formation de la dépression de Rawil. Ce travail propose la première analyse de l'évolution 3-D des instabilités géométriques et de la formation des nappes de plis en utilisant des simulations numériques. Notre modèle est basé sur la méthode des éléments finis (FEM) qui permet de ré-soudre avec précision les interfaces entre deux matériaux ayant des propriétés mécaniques très différentes (par exemple entre les couches calcaires et les couches marneuses). De plus nous utilisons un maillage lagrangien déformable avec une fonction de re-meshing (production d'un nouveau maillage). Grâce à cette méthode combinée il nous est possible de suivre avec précisi-on les interfaces matérielles et de résoudre avec précision les instabilités géométriques lors de la déformation de matériaux visco-élastiques décrit par une rhéologie non linéaire (n>1). Nous uti-lisons cet algorithme afin de comprendre la formation des nappes de plis, la propagation latérale du plissement ainsi que la propagation latérale des structures de type mullions causé par une va-riation latérale de la géométrie (p.ex graben). De plus l'algorithme est utilisé pour comprendre la dynamique 3-D de l'amincissement visqueux et de la rupture de la plaque descendante en zone de subduction. Les résultats obtenus sont comparés à des modèles 2-D et à la solution analytique 1-D. -- Viele drei dimensionale (3-D) Strukturen, die in Gesteinen vorkommen und durch die Verfor-mung der Erdkruste und Litosphäre entstanden sind werden von den unterschiedlichen mechani-schen Eigenschaften der Gesteinseinheiten kontrolliert und sind häufig das Resulat von geome-trischen Istabilitäten. Zu diesen strukturen zählen zum Beispiel Falten, Pich-and-swell Struktu-ren oder sogenannte Cusbate-Lobate Strukturen (auch Mullions). Diese Strukturen kommen in verschiedenen Grössenordungen vor und können Masse von einigen Zentimeter bis zu einigen Kilometer aufweisen. Die mit der Entstehung dieser Strukturen verbundenen Prozesse kontrol-lieren die Entstehung von Gerbirgen und Sediment-Becken sowie die Verformung des Kontaktes zwischen Grundgebirge und Stedimenten. Die zwei dimensionalen (2-D) Verformungs-Prozesse die zu den genannten Strukturen führen sind bereits sehr gut untersucht. Einige Prozesse wäh-rend starker 3-D Verformung sind hingegen noch unvollständig verstanden. Einer dieser 3-D Prozesse ist die seitliche Fortpflanzung der beschriebenen Strukturen, so wie die seitliche Fort-pflanzung von Falten und Cusbate-Lobate Strukturen senkrecht zur Verkürzungsrichtung und die seitliche Fortpflanzung von Pinch-and-Swell Strukturen othogonal zur Streckungsrichtung. Insbesondere interessieren wir uns für Faltendecken, liegende Falten mit Amplituden von mehr als 10 km. Faltendecken entstehen vermutlich durch duktile Verscherung. Sie zeigen oft einen konstanten Scherungssinn und eine nicht-lineare zunahme der Scherverformung am überkipp-ten Schenkel. Die Faltenachsen der Morcles Decke in der Westschweiz fallen Richtung ONO während die Faltenachsen der östicher gelegenen Doldenhorn Decke gegen WSW einfallen. Diese entgegengesetzten Einfallrichtungen charakterisieren die Rawil Depression (Wildstrubel Depression). Die Morcles Decke ist überwiegend das Resultat von Verkürzung und Scherung parallel zu den Sedimentlagen. Während der Verkürzung verhielt sich der massive Kalkstein kompetenter als der Umliegende Mergel und Schiefer, was zur Verfaltetung Morcles Decke führ-te, vorallem in gegen Norden eifallenden überkippten Schenkel. Die Doldenhorn Decke weist dagegen einen viel kleineren überkippten Schenkel und eine stärkere Lokalisierung der Verfor-mung auf. Bis heute gibt es keine 3-D numerischen Studien, die die fundamentale Dynamik der Entstehung von grossen stark verformten 3-D Strukturen wie den Morcles und Doldenhorn Decken sowie der damit verbudenen Rawil Depression untersuchen. Wir betrachten die 3-D Ent-wicklung von geometrischen Instabilitäten sowie die Entstehung fon Faltendecken mit Hilfe von numerischen Simulationen basiert auf der Finite Elemente Methode (FEM). Die Simulation von geometrischen Instabilitäten, die aufgrund von Änderungen der Materialeigenschaften zwischen verschiedenen Gesteinseinheiten entstehen, erfortert einen numerischen Algorithmus, der in der Lage ist die Materialgrenzen mit starkem Kontrast der Materialeigenschaften (zum Beispiel zwi-schen Kalksteineinheiten und Mergel) für starke Verfomung genau aufzulösen. Um dem gerecht zu werden kombiniert unser FE Algorithmus eine numerische Contour-Linien-Technik und ein deformierbares Lagranges Netz mit Re-meshing. Mit dieser kombinierten Methode ist es mög-lich den anfänglichen Materialgrenzen mit dem FE Netz genau zu folgen und die geometrischen Instabilitäten genügend aufzulösen. Der Algorithmus ist in der Lage visko-elastische 3-D Ver-formung zu rechnen, wobei die viskose Rheologie mit Hilfe eines power-law Fliessgesetzes beschrieben wird. Mit dem numerischen Algorithmus untersuchen wir die Entstehung von 3-D Faltendecken, die seitliche Fortpflanzung der Faltung sowie der Cusbate-Lobate Strukturen die sich durch die Verkürzung eines mit Sediment gefüllten Halbgraben bilden. Dabei werden die anfänglichen geometrischen Instabilitäten der Faltung exakt mit dem FE Netz aufgelöst wäh-rend die Materialgranzen des Halbgrabens die Finiten Elemente durchschneidet. Desweiteren wird der 3-D Algorithmus auf die Einschnürung während der 3-D viskosen Plattenablösung und Subduktion angewandt. Die 3-D Resultate werden mit 2-D Ergebnissen und einer 1-D analyti-schen Lösung verglichen.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

MorphoGraphX: A platform for quantifying morphogenesis in 4D.

Morphogenesis emerges from complex multiscale interactions between genetic and mechanical processes. To understand these processes, the evolution of cell shape, proliferation and gene expression must be quantified. This quantification is usually performed either in full 3D, which is computationally expensive and technically challenging, or on 2D planar projections, which introduces geometrical artifacts on highly curved organs. Here we present MorphoGraphX ( www.MorphoGraphX.org), a software that bridges this gap by working directly with curved surface images extracted from 3D data. In addition to traditional 3D image analysis, we have developed algorithms to operate on curved surfaces, such as cell segmentation, lineage tracking and fluorescence signal quantification. The software's modular design makes it easy to include existing libraries, or to implement new algorithms. Cell geometries extracted with MorphoGraphX can be exported and used as templates for simulation models, providing a powerful platform to investigate the interactions between shape, genes and growth.

Information, learning, and risk in financial markets

Cette thèse comprend trois essais qui abordent l'information le processus d'ap-prentissage ainsi que le risque dans les marchés finances. Elle se concentre d'abord sur les implications à l'équilibre de l'hétérogénéité des agents à travers un processus d'apprentissage comprtemental et de mise à jour de l'information. De plus, elle examine les effets du partage des risques dans un reseau entreprise-fournisseur. Le premier chapitre étudie les effets du biais de disponibili sur l'évaluation des actifs. Ce biais décrit le fait que les agents surestiment l'importance de l'information acquise via l'expérience personnelle. L'hétérogénéité restante des différentes perceptions individuelles amène à une volonté d'échanges. Conformé¬ment aux données empiriques, les jeunes agents échangent plus mais en même temps souffrent d'une performance inférieure. Le deuxième chapitre se penche sur l'impact qu'ont les différences de modelisation entre les agents sur leurs percevons individuelles du processus de prix, dans le contexte des projections de modèles. Les agents sujets à un biais de projection pensent être représentatifs et interprètent les opinions des autres agents comme du bruit. Les agents, avec des modèles plus persistants, perçoivent que les prix réagissent de façon excessive lors des périodes de turbulence. Le troisième chapitre analyse l'impact du partage des risques dans la relation entreprise-fournisseur sur la décision optimale de financement de l'entreprise. Il étudie l'impact sur l'optimisation de la structure du capital ainsi que sur le coût du capital. Les résultats indiquent en particulier qu'un fournisseur avec un effet de levier faible est utile pour le financement d'un nouveau projet d'investissement. Pour des projets très rentables et des fournisseurs à faible effet de levier, le coût des capitaux propres de l'entreprise peut diminuer.

Comparison of different methods to forecast hospital bed needs

Objectives : This study compares three methods to forecast the number of acute somatic hospital beds needed in a Swiss academic hospital over the period 2010-2030. Design : Information about inpatient stays is provided through a yearly mandatory reporting of Swiss hospitals, containing anonymized data. Forecast of the numbers of beds needed compares a basic scenario relying on population projections with two other methods in use in our country that integrate additional hypotheses on future trends in admission rates and length of stay (LOS).

Reply to 'Sources of uncertainties in cod distribution models'

Ingvaldsen et al. comment on our study assessing global fish interchanges between the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans for more than 500 species during the entire 21st century. They propose that discrepancies between our model projections and observed data for cod in the Barents Sea are the result of the choice of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We address this assertion here, re-running the cod model with additional observation data from the Barents Sea1, 3, and show that the lack of open-access, archived data for the Barents Sea was the primary cause of local prediction mismatch. This finding recalls the importance of systematic deposit of biodiversity data in global databases