An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Extraction and purification of the zwitterions cylindrospermopsin and deoxycylindrospermopsin from Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii

The hepatotoxin cylindrospermopsin (CYN) has been isolated from the cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (C. raci.). Efforts to study this toxin have been hampered by the time-consuming requirement to extract it from cultures of the organism. It is usually extracted from lyophilized cells collected from a laboratory culture. Our preliminary work suggested far more of the toxin is available in solution in the culture media than in the cells collected. We have therefore investigated the use of commercially available solid phase extraction sorbents to extract CYN from culture media in which C. raci. has been grown. A range of reverse phase and ion-exchange sorbents were tested across a range of pHs for their ability to retain CYN without success. Subsequently, graphitized carbon cartridges were found to retain CYN strongly. Elution with 5% formic acid in methanol allowed the CYN to be regained for final purification by HPLC. Deoxy-CYN, an analog of CYN can also be extracted using this procedure. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Distribution of C-14 Cylindrospermopsin in vivo in the mouse

Radiolabelled C-14 cylindrospermopsin (CYN) has been prepared and used to investigate the distribution and excretion of CYN in vivo in male Quackenbush mice. At a dose of 0.2 mg/kg (i.e., approx. median lethal dose) the following mean (SID) urinary and faecal recoveries (cumulative) were obtained, respectively: (0-6 hours, n = 4) 48.2 (29.3)%, 11.9 (21.4)%; (0-12 hours, n = 12) 66.0 (27.1)%, 5.7 (5.6)%; (0-24 hours, n = 12) 68.4 (26.7)%, 8.5 (8.1)%. Mean (SD) recoveries from livers at 6 hours were 20.6 (6.4)% (n = 4), at 48 hours 13.1 (7.7)% (n = 8), and 5-7 days were 2.1 (2.1)% (n = 8). A substantial amount (up to 23%) can be retained in the liver for up to 48 hours with a lesser amount retained in the kidneys. The excretion patterns show substantial interindividual variability between predominantly faecal or urinary excretion, but these patterns are not related in any simple manner to the outcome in terms of toxicity. There is at least one methanol-extractable metabolite as well as a nonmethanol-extractable metabolite in the liver. The methanol-extractable metabolite was not found in the kidney and is more hydrophilic than CYN itself on reverse phase. (C) 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Time-dependent master equation simulation of complex elementary reactions in combustion: Application to the reaction of (CH2)-C-1 with C2H2 from 300-2000 K

Computational simulations of the title reaction are presented, covering a temperature range from 300 to 2000 K. At lower temperatures we find that initial formation of the cyclopropene complex by addition of methylene to acetylene is irreversible, as is the stabilisation process via collisional energy transfer. Product branching between propargyl and the stable isomers is predicted at 300 K as a function of pressure for the first time. At intermediate temperatures (1200 K), complex temporal evolution involving multiple steady states begins to emerge. At high temperatures (2000 K) the timescale for subsequent unimolecular decay of thermalized intermediates begins to impinge on the timescale for reaction of methylene, such that the rate of formation of propargyl product does not admit a simple analysis in terms of a single time-independent rate constant until the methylene supply becomes depleted. Likewise, at the elevated temperatures the thermalized intermediates cannot be regarded as irreversible product channels. Our solution algorithm involves spectral propagation of a symmetrised version of the discretized master equation matrix, and is implemented in a high precision environment which makes hitherto unachievable low-temperature modelling a reality.

Time evolution in the unimolecular master equation at low temperatures: full spectral solution with scalable iterative methods and high precision

A new method is presented to determine an accurate eigendecomposition of difficult low temperature unimolecular master equation problems. Based on a generalisation of the Nesbet method, the new method is capable of achieving complete spectral resolution of the master equation matrix with relative accuracy in the eigenvectors. The method is applied to a test case of the decomposition of ethane at 300 K from a microcanonical initial population with energy transfer modelled by both Ergodic Collision Theory and the exponential-down model. The fact that quadruple precision (16-byte) arithmetic is required irrespective of the eigensolution method used is demonstrated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Calculation of product state distributions from resonance decay via Lanczos subspace filter diagonalization: Application to HO2

Resonance phenomena associated with the unimolecular dissociation of HO2 have been investigated quantum-mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization (LHFD) method. The calculated resonance energies, rates (widths), and product state distributions are compared to results from an autocorrelation function-based filter diagonalization (ACFFD) method. For calculating resonance wave functions via ACFFD, an analytical expression for the expansion coefficients of the modified Chebyshev polynomials is introduced. Both dissociation rates and product state distributions of O-2 show strong fluctuations, indicating the dissociation of HO2 is essentially irregular. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

A sensitive and specific assay for glutathione with potential application to glutathione disulphide, using high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

We have utilised the combination of sensitivity and specificity afforded by coupling high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) to a tandem mass spectrometer (MS-MS) to produce an assay which is suitable for assaying glutathione (GSH) concentrations in liver tissue. The sensitivity suggests it may also be suitable for extrahepatic tissues, The method has been validated for GSH using mouse liver samples and also allows the assay of GSSG. The stability of GSH under conditions relevant to the assay has been determined. A 20-mul amount of a diluted methanol extract of tissue is injected with detection limits of 0.2 pmol for GSH and 2 pmol for GSSG. The HPLC uses an Altima C-18 (150X4.6 mm, 5 mum) column at 35 degreesC. Chromatography utilises a linear gradient from 0 to 10% methanol in 0.1% formic acid over 5 min, with a final isocratic stage holding at 10% methanol for 5 min. Total flow rate is 0.8 ml/min. The transition from the M+H ion (308.1 m/z for GSH, and 613.3 m/z for GSSG) to the 162.0 m/z (GSH) and 355.3 m/z (GSSG) fragments are monitored. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent advances in the preparation and utilization of carbon nanotubes for hydrogen storage

Recent progress in the production, purification, and experimental and theoretical investigations of carbon nanotubes for hydrogen storage are reviewed. From the industrial point of view, the chemical vapor deposition process has shown advantages over laser ablation and electric-arc-discharge methods. The ultimate goal in nanotube synthesis should be to gain control over geometrical aspects of nanotubes, such as location and orientation, and the atomic structure of nanotubes, including helicity and diameter. There is currently no effective and simple purification procedure that fulfills all requirements for processing carbon nanotubes. Purification is still the bottleneck for technical applications, especially where large amounts of material are required. Although the alkali-metal-doped carbon nanotubes showed high H-2 Weight uptake, further investigations indicated that some of this uptake was due to water rather than hydrogen. This discovery indicates a potential source of error in evaluation of the storage capacity of doped carbon nanotubes. Nevertheless, currently available single-wall nanotubes yield a hydrogen uptake value near 4 wt% under moderate pressure and room temperature. A further 50% increase is needed to meet U.S. Department of Energy targets for commercial exploitation. Meeting this target will require combining experimental and theoretical efforts to achieve a full understanding of the adsorption process, so that the uptake can be rationally optimized to commercially attractive levels. Large-scale production and purification of carbon nanotubes and remarkable improvement of H-2 storage capacity in carbon nanotubes represent significant technological and theoretical challenges in the years to come.

A semi-analytical solution for vibration of rectangular plates with abrupt thickness variation

A semi-analytical analysis of free vibration of plates with cross-sectional discontinuities due to abrupt changes in thickness is presented. A basic square element divided into suitable subdomains dependent upon the positions of these abrupt changes is used as the basic building element, Admissible functions that satisfy the essential or geometric boundary conditions are used to define the transverse deflection of each subdomain. Continuities in the displacement, slope, moment and higher derivatives between adjacent subdomains are enforced at the interconnecting edges. The resulting global energy functional from the proper assembly of the coupled strain and kinetic energy contributions of each subdomain is then minimized via the Ritz procedure to extract the frequencies and mode shapes. Contour plots of a range of new mode shapes are presented for the enhancement of understanding the dynamic behavior of this class of plates, (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved.

Estimating economic relationships subject to firm- and time-varying equality and inequality constraints

Applied econometricians often fail to impose economic regularity constraints in the exact form economic theory prescribes. We show how the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used to rigorously impose time- and firm-varying equality and inequality constraints. To illustrate the technique we estimate a system of translog input demand functions subject to all the constraints implied by economic theory, including observation-varying symmetry and concavity constraints. Results are presented in the form of characteristics of the estimated posterior distributions of functions of the parameters. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Valuing ecological functions of biodiversity in changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve in northeast china

Conservation of biodiversity can generate considerable indirect economic value and this is being increasingly recognized in China. For a forest ecosystem type of a nature reserve, the most important of its values are its ecological functions which provide human beings and other living things with beneficial environmental services. These services include water conservancy, soil protection, CO2 fixation and O-2 release, nutrient cycling, pollutant decomposition, and disease and pest control. Based on a case study in Changbaishan Mountain Biosphere Reserve in Northeast China, this paper provides a monetary valuation of these services by using opportunity cost and alternative cost methods. Using such an approach, this reserve is valued at 510.11 million yuan (USD 61.68 mill.) per year, 10 times higher than the opportunity cost (51.78 mill. yuan/ha.a) for regular timber production. While China has heeded United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)'s call for economic evaluation of ecological functions, the assessment techniques used need to be improved in China and in the West for reasons mentioned.

Sequestration of carbon by soil

Soil carbon is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The soils of the world contain more carbon than the combined total amounts occurring in vegetation and the atmosphere. Consequently, soils are a major reservoir of carbon and an important sink. Because of the relatively long period of time that carbon spends within the soil and is thereby withheld from the atmosphere, it is often referred to as being sequestered. Increasing the capacity of soils to sequester C provides a partial, medium-term countermeasure to help ameliorate the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere arising from fossil fuel burning and land clearing. Such action will also help to alleviate the environmental impacts arising from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. The C sequestration potential of any soil depends on its capacity to store resistant plant components in the medium term and to protect and accumulate the humic substances (HS) formed from the transformations or organic materials in the soil environment. The sequestration potential of a soil depends on the vegetation it supports, its mineralogical composition, the depth of the solum, soil drainage, the availability of water and air, and the temperature of the soil environment. The sequestration potential also depends on the chemical characteristics of the soil organic matter and its ability to resist microbial decomposition. When accurate information for these features is incorporated in model systems, the potentials of different soils to sequester C can be reliably predicted. It is encouraging to know that improved soil and crop management systems now allow field yields to be maintained and soil C reserves to be increased, even for soils with depleted levels of soil C. Estimates of the soil C sequestration potential are discussed. Inevitably HS are the major components of the additionally sequestered C. It will be important to know more about the compositions and associations of these substances in the soil if we are able to predict reasonably accurately the ability of any soil type to sequester C in different cropping and soil management systems.

Adaptive multiscale principal components analysis for online monitoring of wastewater treatment

Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

Copolymers obtained by the radiation-induced grafting of styrene onto poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropylvinyl ether) substrates. 1. Preparation and structural investigation

A study has been made to investigate the radiation grafting of styrene onto poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropylvinyl ether) (PFA) substrates, using the simultaneous irradiation method. Two PFA polymers of different comonomer perfluoropropyl vinyl ether (PPVE) content and degree of crystallinity were used. Effects of grafting conditions such as monomer concentrations, type of solvent, dose rate, and irradiation dose on the grafting yield were investigated. Of the six different solvents used, the most efficient in terms of increasing grafting yield were dichloromethane, benzene, and methanol. The degree of grafting increased with increasing radiation dose up to 500 kGy, stabilizing above this dose. However, the grafting yield decreased with an increase in the dose rate. The grafting of styrene onto the PFA substrates was confirmed by FTIR-ATR and micro-Raman spectroscopy, The increase in the overall grafting yield was accompanied by a proportional increase in the penetration depth of the grafts into the substrate.

Spectroscopic study of the penetration depth of grafted polystyrene onto poly (tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropylvinylether) substrates. 1. Effect of grafting conditions

This study concerns the radiation grafting of styrene onto poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropylvinylether) (PFA) substrates and the penetration depth of the graft. Grafting was obtained by the simultaneous irradiation method, and the spectroscopic analysis was made with the micro-Raman technique. Effects of grafting conditions such as the type of solvent, dose rate, and irradiation dose on the grafting yield were investigated. Of the different solvents used, the most efficient in terms of increasing grafting yield were dichloromethane, benzene, and methanol, respectively. A mixture of methanol and dichloromethane used as a solvent for styrene achieved a higher degree of grafting and concentration of grafted polystyrene onto the surface of PFA substrates than solutions of the monomer in the separate solvents. The degree of grafting increased with increasing radiation dose up to 500 kGy, stabilizing above this dose. However, the grafting yield decreased with an increase in the dose rate. The increase in the overall grafting yield was accompanied by a proportional increase in the penetration depth of the grafts into the substrate. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.