Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Should my company use Bitcoin?

This work project analyses the possibility for a company to trade their goods and services for bitcoins, by joining the Bitcoin network. It analyses the technological and business requirements to join the Bitcoin Network by looking at Bitcoin’s potential to act as a mean of exchange for trade, unit of account and store of value. The analysis points to the motives, benefits and risks for investors to use the Bitcoin as a traditional currency and recommends on strategies for addressing those risks and maximizing benefits. Other than companies this report, to a lesser extent, will also analyse the Bitcoin from an investor’s point of view, this is, should an investor buy bitcoins for trade and make savings on a regular and everyday basis? A major finding in this work project is that companies could start using the Bitcoin system as a legit form of payment since the benefits of using this technology outweigh the costs and risks, given the right approach. This form of payment will contribute for the upgrade of a company’s business’ image, attract a new pool of consumers and businesses that already trade in bitcoins and pressure existing financial institutions and electronic payment vendors to upgrade their service levels.

Developing a gamification system to increase customer lifetime value at MyGon

There have never been so many touch points between companies and consumers as there are today, which paradoxically makes it very challenging for companies to be able to retain and engage customers. Gamification is a strategy used by a large number of companies to increase customer engagement and customer lifetime value. This work aims at developing a gamification system for MyGon, a Portuguese startup working in the market of discounts and experiences. In addition to examining the literature concerning gamification, its elements and characteristics, recommendations were developed for addressing MyGon’s business goals of increasing conversion and customer engagement. The gamification mechanisms suggested include badges, missions, points, leaderboards and levels.

Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Triagem universal de alunos em risco de apresentarem dificuldades de aprendizagem específicas na leitura: um estudo quantitativo no 3º ano do 1º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança (área de especialização em Educação Especial).

Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental data

Programa Doutoral em Matemática e Aplicações.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

Adolescent parents’ values: the role played by retrospective perceptions of the family-of-origin

Family-of-origin is an important system in individual’s lives, and its influence is extensive over the life cycle. The aim of this study was to investigate, in a sample of adolescents’ parents, whether their retrospective perceptions of parenting and relationship qualities within their families-of-origin during adolescence predicted their current collectivist and individualist values. Participants included 110 Portuguese adults with a mean age of 46.86 years old. The results of structural equation modeling supported that retrospective perceptions of parenting and relationship qualities in the family-of-origin predicted the adults’ collectivist values but not their individualist values. This study highlights the importance of retrospective perceptions of supporting and non-rejecting parenting for value acquisition. The results also suggest that values that preserve and protect family connections and collaborations are more likely to be socialized by families. Implications for practice and for the theories on parenting, values, family-of-origin influences and family intergenerational transmission are discussed.

Média digitais e lusofonia

É meu propósito, neste texto, discutir a Lusofonia através de um conjunto de conceitos ligados aos média digitais interativos, rompendo os limites da ligação entre produtores e recetores de conteúdos nas relações multi, inter e transculturais. Vou insistir na ideia de que os média digitais interativos significam novas práticas nas relações interculturais: por um lado, formas digitais interativas de comunicação intercultural e, por outro, textualidades multimodais (“hipertextualidades”) na produção do sentido lusófono. O percurso que proponho tem um cariz preponderantemente epistemológico. Tomando a Lusofonia como figura de interesse geoestratégico e cultural e os média digitais como objeto de análise, é minha preocupação fundamental interrogar a inovação, a hibridez e a interatividade digitais e verificar de que modo se articulam com as relações multi, inter e transculturais. Palavras-chave: Lusofonia, comunicação intercultural, média digitais interativos, comunicação multimodal, tecnologia da comunicação, Museu da Língua Portuguesa em São Paulo, Museu Virtual da Lusofonia.

“Learning-by-producing” in the fashion value chain

Proceedings da AUTEX 2015, Bucareste, Roménia.

Nutritional value, bioactive compounds and antioxidant properties of three edible mushrooms from Poland

Mushrooms contain a multitude of biomolecules with nutritional and/or biological activity. Among the bioactive molecules, phenolic compounds and tocopherols are the most responsible for their antioxidant activity. In the present work, Boletus edulis, Lentinus edodes and Xerocomus badius, three edible mushroom species originated from Poland, were analyzed for their chemical composition and antioxidant activity. Carbohydrates were the most abundant macronutrients, followed by proteins and ash. Fructose, mannitol and trehalose were the prevalent sugars, but glucose was only found in B. edulis. Polyunsaturated fatty acids predominated over mono and saturated fatty acids. Palmitic, oleic and linoleic acids were abundant in the three samples. α- and β- Tocopherols were quantified in all the samples, but γ-tocopherol was only identified in X. badius. Oxalic and fumaric acids were quantified in the three samples; quinic acid was only present in L. edodes, and malic and citric acids were only found in X. badius. p-Hydroxybenzoic, protocatechuic and cinnamic acids were quantified in all the species, while p-coumaric acid was only found in B. edulis. This species and X. badius revealed the highest antioxidant properties, being B. edulis more effective in radicals scavenging activity and reducing power, and X. badius in lipid peroxidation inhibition, which is related with the highest amounts in phenolic compounds and tocopherols, respectively.

Suicide attempts and substance use in an emergency room sample

OBJECTIVE: Describe suicide attempts assisted in an emergency room (ER) and acute substance consumption or dependence on these individuals. METHODS: Descriptive epidemiologic study was carried out during one year, evaluating suicide attempts assisted at Embu das Artes ER, São Paulo, Brazil. Patients were scheduled to a non structured psychiatric interview. Main outcomes measures were: socio demographic data, suicide attempt method, drugs or alcohol acute use in the six hours prior to attempt, patients with ICD-10 substance dependence diagnosis. The descriptive analyses and chi-square test (p < 0.05) were used to verify associations between the variables studied. RESULTS: sample was formed of 80 patients, mean age of 26.9 years (SD = 8.91), predominantly female (72.5%) and 21.2% adolescents. Most suicide attempts were made through medicine ingestion (62.5%). Approximately 21.2% and 7.5% related to have used alcohol and an illicit drug respectively within 6 hours prior to attempt and 10% were found to be substance dependent. All substance dependents had attempted suicide previously (p-value = 0.4). There was a significant association between suicide attempt through medicine ingestion and psychiatric treatment history (p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: More national studies are necessary to consider the role of alcohol and drug in suicide attempts assisted in ER, especially in chemical dependents whose suicidal behavior is relevant.

Lewis Score - Prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel Crohn's disease

Background and aims: Small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) allows mapping of small bowel inflammation in Crohn’s disease (CD). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of the severity of inflammatory lesions, quantified by the Lewis score (LS), in patients with isolated small bowel CD. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in which 53 patients with isolated small bowel CD were submitted to SBCE at the time of diagnosis. The Lewis score was calculated and patients had at least 12 months of follow-up after diagnosis. As adverse events we defined disease flare requiring systemic corticosteroid therapy, hospitalization and/or surgery during follow-up. We compared the incidence of adverse events in 2 patient subgroups, i.e. those with moderate or severe inflammatory activity (LS =790) and those with mild inflammatory activity (135 = LS < 790). Results: The LS was =790 in 22 patients (41.5%), while 58.5% presented with LS between 135 and 790. Patients with a higher LS were more frequently smokers (p = 0.01), males (p = 0017) and under immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, moderate to severe disease at SBCE was independently associated with corticosteroid therapy during follow-up, with a relative risk (RR) of 5 (p = 0.011; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–17.8), and for hospitalization, with an RR of 13.7 (p = 0 .028; 95% CI 1.3–141.9). Conclusion: In patients with moderate to severe inflammatory activity there were higher prevalences of corticosteroid therapy demand and hospitalization during follow-up. Thus, stratifying the degree of small bowel inflammatory activity with SBCE and LS calculation at the time of diagnosis provided relevant prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel CD.

Pulse wave velocity distribution in a cohort study: from arterial stiffness to early vascular aging

BACKGROUND: By contrast with other southern European people, north Portuguese population registers an especially high prevalence of hypertension and stroke incidence. We designed a cohort study to identify individuals presenting accelerated and premature arterial aging in the Portuguese population. METHOD: Pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured in randomly sampled population dwellers aged 18-96 years from northern Portugal, and used as a marker of early vascular aging (EVA). Of the 3038 individuals enrolled, 2542 completed the evaluation. RESULTS: Mean PWV value for the entire population was 8.4?m/s (men: 8.6?m/s; women: 8.2?m/s; P?mean PWV values adjusted for age (using normal European reference values as comparators). The overall prevalence of EVA was 12.5%; 26.1% of individuals below 30 years presented this feature and 40.2% of individuals in that same age strata were placed above the 90th percentile of PWV; and 18.7% of the population exhibited PWV values above 10?m/s, with male predominance (17.2% of men aged 40-49 years had PWV?>?10?m/s). Logistic regression models indicated gender differences concerning the risk of developing large artery damage, with women having the same odds of PWV above 10?m/s 10 years later than men. CONCLUSION: The population PWV values were higher than expected in a low cardiovascular risk area (Portugal). High prevalence rates of EVA and noteworthy large artery damage in young ages were found.

Development of polymeric nanoparticles containing neuroprotective compounds of Hypericum perforatum

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia das Plantas - MAP BIOPLANT