Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

Leaving final-cut grass silage in situ overwinter as a seed resource for declining farmland birds

The loss of seed-rich wintering habitats has been a major contributory cause of farmland bird population declines in western Europe. Agricultural grasslands are particularly poor winter foraging habitats for granivorous birds, which have declined most in the pastoral farming regions of western Britain. We describe an experiment to test the utility of fertile ryegrass (Lolium) swards as a potentially rich source of winter seed for declining farmland birds. Four patches of final-cut grass silage were allowed to set seed and were left in situ overwinter. Half of each patch was lightly aftermath grazed in an attempt to increase the accessibility of the seed to foraging birds and reduce the perceived predation risk. Large numbers of yellowhammers (Emberiza citrinella) and reed buntings (E. schoeniclus) foraged on the seeded plots throughout the winter. They preferred to forage on ungrazed seeded plots, where the accumulation of senescent foliage resulted in a 14% average loss in silage yield in the following season. However, seed produced on the plots also led to sward regeneration, increasing subsequent yields on some plots. The technique offers clear benefits as a potential future agri-environment measure for declining granivorous birds, with wide applicability, but requires further development to minimise sward damage and costs to the farmer. Autumn grazing should reduce sward damage, but at the cost of reduced usage by buntings. Using the technique just prior to reseeding would be one way of avoiding any costs of sward damage.

In situ degradability of dry matter and neutral-detergent fibre of thorn scrubland forage consumed by goats in the semi-arid region of north Mexico

Three goats provided with oesophageal and ruminal cannulae were used to determine variations in dry matter (DM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) degradability of the forage consumed when grazing thorn scrubland in the semi-arid region of north Mexico, during two consecutive dry and wet periods. Ingesta samples were incubated intraruminally, the data were fitted to the exponential equation P = a + b (1-e(-ct)) and statistically analysed using a randomized-block design. Organic matter and crude protein (CP) contents were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Values of NDF were similar in dry and wet season of both years whereas higher numerical values of acid-detergent fibre (ADF), lignin and cellulose were registered in the dry seasons. DM and NDF degradabilities after 24 and 48 h of ruminal incubation were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Higher values (P < 0.05) in DM and NDF bag losses at zero time (A fraction) were registered in the two wet seasons. The insoluble but fermentable DM and NDF (B fractions) were higher (P < 0.05) in the 1999 wet season and variable in the rest of the studied period. Numerically higher values of DM and NDF c fraction were found in wet periods, whereas DM and NDF potential degradabilities were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet season in 1999 and similar across seasons in 2000. Lowest (P < 0.05) contents of CP in grazed forage, DM and NDF degradabilities after 48 h of ruminal incubation, and A, and B, and c fractions were observed in the dry seasons. Thus, these results may be related to both the lower feeding value of forage consumed by the animals and lower performance of livestock during this period. Then, the DM and NDF degradability after 48 h, together with the insoluble but fermentable matter and the c fraction permit the nutritive value of the forage consumed by grazing goats to be accurately described.

Use of global gene expression patterns in mechanistic studies of oestrogen action in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Over the years, the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line has provided a model system for the study of cellular and molecular mechanisms in oestrogen regulation of cell proliferation and in progression to oestrogen and antioestrogen independent growth. Global gene expression profiling has shown that oestrogen action in MCF7 cells involves the coordinated regulation of hundreds of genes across a wide range of functional groupings and that more genes are down regulated than upregulated. Adaptation to long-term oestrogen deprivation, which results in loss of oestrogen-responsive growth, involves alterations to gene patterns not only at early time points (0-4 weeks) but continuing through to later times (20-55 weeks), and even involves alterations to patterns of oestrogen-regulated gene expression. Only 48% of the genes which were regulated >= 2-fold by oestradiol in oestrogen-responsive cells retained this responsiveness after long-term oestrogen deprivation but other genes developed de novo oestrogen regulation. Long-term exposure to fulvestrant, which resulted in loss of growth inhibition by the antioestrogen, resulted in some very large fold changes in gene expression up to 10,000-fold. Comparison of gene profiles produced by environmental chemicals with oestrogenic properties showed that each ligand gave its own unique expression profile which suggests that environmental oestrogens entering the human breast may give rise to a more complex web of interference in cell function than simply mimicking oestrogen action at inappropriate times. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges of in situ conservation of crop wild relatives

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) will gain in importance as changing climates put both traditional and advanced cultivars under increasing stress, leading to a need for plant breeding to produce new varieties able to grow under the new climate regimes. Traditionally, the approach to the conservation of CWRs has been ex situ - the collection and maintenance of seed accessions in national, regional, and international germplasm banks, supplemented by field genebanks for species with recalcitrant seeds. More recently the need to maintain CWRs in their natural habitats (in situ) has been advocated. This is very different from on-farm conservation of traditional land races and is a complex multidisciplinary process. Particular problems that have to be addressed include the adoption of a workable definition of what is a CWR, application of priority-determining mechanisms because of the large number of candidate species of CWRs, assessment of the effectiveness of conservation approaches, the relative costs of in situ and ex situ approaches, integration of CWR in situ conservation into national programmes, and the challenges posed by global change. CWRs may be conserved in both protected and non-protected areas. Presence in the former is no guarantee of their survival and in most cases some degree of management intervention is required. Experience derived from recent EU- and GEF-funded CWR conservation initiatives will be drawn upon.

Functional significance of the signal transduction pathways Akt and Erk in ovarian follicles: in vitro and in vivo studies in cattle and sheep

BACKGROUND: The intracellular signalling mechanisms that regulate ovarian follicle development are unclear; however, we have recently shown differences in the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in dominant compared to subordinate follicles. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhibiting Akt and Erk phosphorylation on IGF- and gonadotropin- stimulated granulosa and theca cell function in vitro, and on follicle development in vivo. METHODS: Bovine granulosa and theca cells were cultured for six days and stimulated with FSH and/or IGF, or LH in combination with PD98059 (Erk inhibitor) and/or LY294002 (Akt inhibitor) and their effect on cell number and hormone secretion (estradiol, activin-A, inhibin-A, follistatin, progesterone and androstenedione) determined. In addition, ovarian follicles were treated in vivo with PD98059 and/or LY294002 in ewes on Day 3 of the cycle and follicles were recovered 48 hours later. RESULTS: We have shown that gonadotropin- and IGF-stimulated hormone production by granulosa and theca cells is reduced by treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 in vitro. Furthermore, treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 reduced follicle growth and oestradiol production in vivo. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate an important functional role for the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in follicle function, growth and development.

Expression of metallothionein genes I and II in bank vole clethrionomys glareolus populations chronically exposed in situ to heavy metals

The expression of two metallothionein genes (Mt-I and Mt-II) in the liver, kidney, and gonad of bank voles collected at four metal-contaminated sites (Cd, Zn, Pb, and Fe) were measured using the quantitative real-time PCR method (QPCR). Relative Mt gene expression was calculated by applying a normalization factor (NF) using the expression of two housekeeping genes, ribosomal 18S and beta-actin. Relative Mt expression in tissues of animals from contaminated sites was up to 54.8-fold higher than those from the reference site for Mt-I and up to 91.6-fold higher for Mt-II. Mt-II gene expression in the livers of bank voles from contaminated sites was higher than Mt-I gene expression. Inversely, Mt-II expression in the kidneys of voles was lower than Mt-I expression. Positive correlations between cadmium levels in the tissues and Mt-I were obtained in all studied tissues. Zinc, which undergoes homeostatic regulation, correlated positively with both Mt-I and Mt-II gene expression only in the kidney. Results showed that animals living in chronically contaminated environments intensively activate detoxifying mechanisms such as metallothionein expression. This is the first time that QPCR techniques to measure MT gene expression have been applied to assess the impact of environmental metal pollution on field collected bank voles.

A 25-year review of sequential methodology in clinical studies

This paper explores the theoretical developments and subsequent uptake of sequential methodology in clinical studies in the 25 years since Statistics in Medicine was launched. The review examines the contributions which have been made to all four phases into which clinical trials are traditionally classified and highlights major statistical advancements, together with assessing application of the techniques. The vast majority of work has been in the setting of phase III clinical trials and so emphasis will be placed here. Finally, comments are given indicating how the subject area may develop in the future.

The chromosomal assessment of salt tolerant substituted tritipyrum using genomic fluorescent in situ hybridiization (FISH)

Wheat, although moderately tolerant to salt, can not be cultivated in many areas. However, in the triticeae tribe, some of the wild wheat relatives are highly tolerant, e.g. Thinopyrum bessarabicum, which grows on the sea shore. Eight primary hexaploid tritipyrum lines, amphiploids between Triticum durum and Thinopyrum bessarabicum have been produced which can set seed in at least 250 mM NaCl. These tritipyrums (2n=6x=42, AABBEbEb) due to reasons such as brittle rachis, continuous production of tillers, late maturity, tall stature and meiotic instability will not fulfill the requirements of a successful commercial salt tolerant crop. To overcome such problems the substituted tritipyrum, in which selected Eb chromosomes are replaced by D genome chromosomes of 6x wheat, was produced from 6x tritipyrum x 6x wheat hybrids (F1: 2n=6x=42, AABBDEb) followed by selfing and backcrossing with 6x tritipyrum. The fertile plants among the above progenies were screened by the genomic fluorescent in situ hybridization technique to identify their Eb and D chromosome constitution. This study showed that producing tritiprum with variable numbers of Eb and D genome chromosomes is feasible and that FISH is a useful technique for determining the number of Eb chromosomes present.

An in situ time-dependent study of the photodimerisation of chloro-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid using infrared microspectroscopy with a synchrotron radiation source

The photodimerisation of single crystals of substituted cinnamic acid has been monitored continuously by infrared microscopy using a synchrotron source. The beta-form of 2,4-dichloro-trans-cinnamic acid dimerises under ultraviolet irradiation to form the corresponding beta-truxinic acid derivative in a reaction which follows strictly first order kinetics. By contrast the corresponding reactions in single crystals of beta-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid and beta-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid deviate somewhat from first order kinetics as a result of solid-state effects. In all three cases the reactions proceed smoothly from monomer to dimer with no hint of any reaction intermediate.

In situ observation of lithium hydride hydrolysis by DRIFT spectroscopy

Polycrystalline LiH was studied in situ using diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy to investigate the effect water vapour has on the rate of production of the corrosion products, particularly LiOH. The reaction rate of the formation of surface LiOH was monitored by measurement of the hydroxyl (OH) band at 3676 cm(-1). The initial hydrolysis rate of LiH exposed to water vapour at 50% relative humidity was found to be almost two times faster than LiH exposed to water vapour at 2% relative humidity. The hydrolysis rate was shown to be initially very rapid followed by a much slower, almost linear rate. The change in hydrolysis rate was attributed to the formation of a coherent layer of LiOH on the LiH surface. Exposure to lower levels of water vapour appeared to result in the formation of a more coherent corrosion product, resulting in effective passivation of the surface to further attack from water. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microfabrication of high-performance aromatic polymers as nanotubes or fibrils by in situ ring-opening polymerisation of macrocyclic precursors

Melt-phase nucleophilic ring-opening polymerisation of macrocyclic aromatic ethers and thioethers at high temperatures within the cylindrical pores of an anodic-alumina membrane, followed by dissolution of the template, enables replication of the membrane's internal pore structure and so affords high-performance aromatic polymers with well-defined fibrillar or tubular morphologies.

Inelastic neutron scattering in spectroscopic studies of hydrogen on carbon-supported catalysts-experimental spectra and computed spectra of model systems

Inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy has been used to observe and characterise hydrogen on the carbon component of a Pt/C catalyst. INS provides the complete vibration spectrum of coronene, regarded as a molecular model of a graphite layer. The vibrational modes are assigned with the aid of ab initio density functional theory calculations and the INS spectra by the a-CLIMAX program. A spectrum for which the H modes of coronene have been computationally suppressed, a carbon-only coronene spectrum, is a better representation of the spectrum of a graphite layer than is coronene itself. Dihydrogen dosing of a Pt/C catalyst caused amplification of the surface modes of carbon, an effect described as H riding on carbon. From the enhancement of the low energy carbon modes (100-600 cm(-1)) it is concluded that spillover hydrogen becomes attached to dangling bonds at the edges of graphitic regions of the carbon support. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

In situ formation of gold nanoparticles with a thermoresponsive block copolymer corona

Gold nanoparticles with a polymer coating exhibiting large and reversible thermoresponsiveness are prepared via a one-pot synthesis method using narrow polydispersity thermoresponsive block copolymers. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.