984 resultados para global climate modeling


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A stable-isotope stratigraphy at Site 846 (tropical Pacific, 3°06'S, 90°49'W, 3307 m water depth), based on the benthic foraminifers Cibicides wuellerstorfi and Uvigerina peregrina, yields a high-resolution record of deep-sea delta18O and delta13C over the past 1.8 Ma, with an average sampling interval of 3 k.y. Variance in the delta18O and delta13C records is concentrated in the well-known orbital periods of 100, 41, and 23 k.y. In the 100-k.y. band, both isotopic signals grow from relatively low amplitudes prior to 1.2 Ma, to high amplitudes in the late Quaternary since 0.7 Ma. The amplitude of delta18O and especially of delta13C decreases in the 41-k.y. band as it grows in the 100-k.y. band, consistent with a transfer of energy into an orbitally-paced internal oscillation. A weak 30-k.y. rhythm, present in both delta18O and delta13C, may reflect nonlinear interaction between the 41-k.y. and 100-k.y. bands in the evolving climate system. In the 23-k.y. and 19-k.y. bands associated with orbital precession, delta18O and delta13C are not coherent with each other on long time scales, and do not evolve like the 100-k.y. and 41-k.y. bands. This suggests that the source of the growing 100-k.y. oscillation is not a nonlinear response to precession, in contrast to predictions of some climate models. Sedimentation rates at this site also vary with a strong 100-k.y. cycle. Unlike the isotope records, the amplitude of 100-k.y. variations in sedimentation rate is relatively constant over the past 1.8 Ma, ranging from about 15 to 70 m/m.y. Prior to 0.9 Ma, sedimentation rates co-vary with orbital eccentricity, rather than with global climate as reflected by delta18O or delta13C. A source of this 100-k.y. cycle of sedimentation rate in the absence of similar ice volume fluctuations may be precessional heating of equatorial land masses, which in an energy balance climate model drives variations of monsoonal climates with a 100-k.y. rhythm. For the interval younger than 0.9 Ma, high sedimentation rates in the 100-k.y. band are consistently associated with glacial stages. This change of pattern suggests that when the amplitude of glacial cycles become large enough, their global effects overpower a local monsoon-driven variation in sedimentation rate at Site 846.

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Palaeoecological investigations in the larch forest-tundra ecotone in northern Siberia have the potential to reveal Holocene environmental variations, which likely have consequences for global climate change because of the strong high-latitude feedback mechanisms. A sediment core, collected from a small lake (radius ~100 m), was used to reconstruct the development of the lake and its catchment as well as vegetation and summer temperatures over the last 7100 calibrated years. A multi-proxy approach was taken including pollen and sedimentological analyses. Our data indicate a gradual replacement of open larch forests by tundra with scattered single trees as found today in the vicinity of the lake. An overall trend of cooling summer temperature from a ~2 °C warmer-than-present mid-Holocene summer temperatures until the establishment of modern conditions around 3000 years ago is reconstructed based on a regional pollen-climate transfer function. The inference of regional vegetation changes was compared to local changes in the lake's catchment. An initial small water depression occurred from 7100 to 6500 cal years BP. Afterwards, a small lake formed and deepened, probably due to thermokarst processes. Although the general trends of local and regional environmental change match, the lake catchment changes show higher variability. Furthermore, changes in the lake catchment slightly precede those in the regional vegetation. Both proxies highlight that marked environmental changes occurred in the Siberian forest-tundra ecotone over the course of the Holocene.

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In the latest Paleocene an abrupt shift to more negative d13C values has been documented at numerous marine and terrestrial sites (Bralower et al., 1997, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0963:HRROTL>2.3.CO;2; Cramer et al., 1999; Kaiho et al., 1996, doi:10.1029/96PA01021; Kennett and Stott, 1991, doi:10.1038/353225a0; Koch et al., 1992, doi:10.1038/358319a0; Stott et al., 1996; Thomas and Shackleton, 1996, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1996.101.01.20; Zachos et al., 1993). This carbon isotope event (CIE) is coincident with oxygen isotope data that indicate warming of surface waters at high latitudes of nearly 4°-6°C (Kennett and Stott, 1991, doi:10.1038/353225a0) and more moderate warming in the subtropics (Thomas et al., 1999, doi:10.1029/1999PA900031). Here we report 187Os/188Os isotope records from the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans which demonstrate a >10% increase in the 187Os/188Os ratio of seawater coincident with the late Paleocene CIE. This excursion to higher 187Os/188Os ratios is consistent with a global increase in weathering rates. The inference of increased chemical weathering during this interval of unusual warmth is significant because it provides empirical evidence supporting the operation of a feedback between chemical weathering rates and warm global climate, which acts to stabilize Earth's climate (Walker et al., 1981). Estimates of the duration of late Paleocene CIE (Bains et al., 1999, doi:10.1126/science.285.5428.724; Bralower et al., 1997, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0963:HRROTL>2.3.CO;2; Norris and Röhl, 1999, doi:10.1038/44545; Röhl et al., 2000, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28<927:NCFTLP>2.0.CO;2) in conjunction with the Os isotope data imply that intensified chemical weathering in response to warm, humid climates can occur on timescales of 104-105 years. This interpretation requires that the late Paleocene thermal maximum Os isotope excursion be produced mainly by increased Os flux to the ocean rather than a transient excursion to higher 187Os/188Os ratios in river runoff. Although we argue that the former is more likely than the latter, we cannot rule out significant changes in the 187Os/188Os ratio of rivers.