[N]pT ensemble and finite-size-scaling study of the critical isostructural transition in the generalized exponential model of index 4.

First-order transitions of system where both lattice site occupancy and lattice spacing fluctuate, such as cluster crystals, cannot be efficiently studied by traditional simulation methods, which necessarily fix one of these two degrees of freedom. The difficulty, however, can be surmounted by the generalized [N]pT ensemble [J. Chem. Phys. 136, 214106 (2012)]. Here we show that histogram reweighting and the [N]pT ensemble can be used to study an isostructural transition between cluster crystals of different occupancy in the generalized exponential model of index 4 (GEM-4). Extending this scheme to finite-size scaling studies also allows us to accurately determine the critical point parameters and to verify that it belongs to the Ising universality class.

Mixtures of g-priors in Generalized Linear Models

Mixtures of Zellner's g-priors have been studied extensively in linear models and have been shown to have numerous desirable properties for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. Several extensions of g-priors to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been proposed in the literature; however, the choice of prior distribution of g and resulting properties for inference have received considerably less attention. In this paper, we extend mixtures of g-priors to GLMs by assigning the truncated Compound Confluent Hypergeometric (tCCH) distribution to 1/(1+g) and illustrate how this prior distribution encompasses several special cases of mixtures of g-priors in the literature, such as the Hyper-g, truncated Gamma, Beta-prime, and the Robust prior. Under an integrated Laplace approximation to the likelihood, the posterior distribution of 1/(1+g) is in turn a tCCH distribution, and approximate marginal likelihoods are thus available analytically. We discuss the local geometric properties of the g-prior in GLMs and show that specific choices of the hyper-parameters satisfy the various desiderata for model selection proposed by Bayarri et al, such as asymptotic model selection consistency, information consistency, intrinsic consistency, and measurement invariance. We also illustrate inference using these priors and contrast them to others in the literature via simulation and real examples.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Parallel nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition for natural gas production network planning under uncertainty

A scenario-based two-stage stochastic programming model for gas production network planning under uncertainty is usually a large-scale nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programme (MINLP), which can be efficiently solved to global optimality with nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition (NGBD). This paper is concerned with the parallelization of NGBD to exploit multiple available computing resources. Three parallelization strategies are proposed, namely, naive scenario parallelization, adaptive scenario parallelization, and adaptive scenario and bounding parallelization. Case study of two industrial natural gas production network planning problems shows that, while the NGBD without parallelization is already faster than a state-of-the-art global optimization solver by an order of magnitude, the parallelization can improve the efficiency by several times on computers with multicore processors. The adaptive scenario and bounding parallelization achieves the best overall performance among the three proposed parallelization strategies.