984 resultados para forecast deviation


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BACKGROUND Tapia's syndrome is an uncommon disease described in 1904 by Antonio Garcia Tapia, a Spanish otolaryngologist. It is characterized by concomitant paralysis of the hypoglossal (XIIth) and pneumogastric (Xth) nerves. Only 69 cases have been described in the literature. Typically, the reported patients presented with a history of orotracheal intubation. Common symptoms are dysphonia, tongue deviation toward the affected side, lingual motility disturbance, and swallowing difficulty. CASE PRESENTATION In the report, we describe three cases of Tapia's syndrome in three Caucasian patients who underwent surgery with general anesthesia. Two of these patients underwent neck abscess drainage, and the third had an open reduction of a shoulder fracture. The clinical symptoms of Tapia's syndrome appeared after extubation. All three of our patients recovered their lost function at 3 months after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS We underline the importance of performing airway endoscopy and a specific program of swallowing rehabilitation for the proper management of Tapia's syndrome.

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A child with intermittent upward deviation of the eyes starting at 9 months of age, compensating bending forward of the head, nystagmus on attempted downward gaze and a mild gait ataxia is described. The symptoms gradually disappeared between 3 and 4 years of age. Four cases with identical clinical findings have been initially described by Ouvrier in Australia (5) as "benign paroxysmal tonic upgaze of childhood". It is apparently a new syndrome.

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PURPOSE: The recent increase in drug-resistant micro-organisms complicates the management of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HA-BSIs). We investigated the epidemiology of HA-BSI and evaluated the impact of drug resistance on outcomes of critically ill patients, controlling for patient characteristics and infection management. METHODS: A prospective, multicentre non-representative cohort study was conducted in 162 intensive care units (ICUs) in 24 countries. RESULTS: We included 1,156 patients [mean ± standard deviation (SD) age, 59.5 ± 17.7 years; 65 % males; mean ± SD Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II score, 50 ± 17] with HA-BSIs, of which 76 % were ICU-acquired. Median time to diagnosis was 14 [interquartile range (IQR), 7-26] days after hospital admission. Polymicrobial infections accounted for 12 % of cases. Among monomicrobial infections, 58.3 % were gram-negative, 32.8 % gram-positive, 7.8 % fungal and 1.2 % due to strict anaerobes. Overall, 629 (47.8 %) isolates were multidrug-resistant (MDR), including 270 (20.5 %) extensively resistant (XDR), and 5 (0.4 %) pan-drug-resistant (PDR). Micro-organism distribution and MDR occurrence varied significantly (p < 0.001) by country. The 28-day all-cause fatality rate was 36 %. In the multivariable model including micro-organism, patient and centre variables, independent predictors of 28-day mortality included MDR isolate [odds ratio (OR), 1.49; 95 % confidence interval (95 %CI), 1.07-2.06], uncontrolled infection source (OR, 5.86; 95 %CI, 2.5-13.9) and timing to adequate treatment (before day 6 since blood culture collection versus never, OR, 0.38; 95 %CI, 0.23-0.63; since day 6 versus never, OR, 0.20; 95 %CI, 0.08-0.47). CONCLUSIONS: MDR and XDR bacteria (especially gram-negative) are common in HA-BSIs in critically ill patients and are associated with increased 28-day mortality. Intensified efforts to prevent HA-BSIs and to optimize their management through adequate source control and antibiotic therapy are needed to improve outcomes.

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The EORTC 22881-10882 trial in 5178 conservatively treated early breast cancer patients showed that a 16 Gy boost dose significantly improved local control, but increased the risk of breast fibrosis. To investigate predictors for the long-term risk of fibrosis, Cox regression models of the time to moderate or severe fibrosis were developed on a random set of 1797 patients with and 1827 patients without a boost, and validated in the remaining set. The median follow-up was 10.7 years. The risk of fibrosis significantly increased (P<0.01) with increasing maximum whole breast irradiation (WBI) dose and with concomitant chemotherapy, but was independent of age. In the boost arm, the risk further increased (P<0.01) if patients had post-operative breast oedema or haematoma, but it decreased (P<0.01) if WBI was given with >6 MV photons. The c-index was around 0.62. Nomograms with these factors are proposed to forecast the long-term risk of moderate or severe fibrosis.

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Path integration is known to provide information to keep track of spatial location. Surprisingly, few investigations concerning sex differences in computation of the traveling distance have been done. This work was aimed at analyzing the reproduction of both passive and active linear displacements in women and men. To this end, the displacement of blindfolded subjects was done in a wheelchair, then on foot, three times in each condition for a fixed distance. Copies of passive and active traveling distance, distance estimations and pointing responses towards the starting point were analyzed. In passive condition and comparatively to men, women error was larger. Whereas traveling distance was generally underestimated in women, it was overestimated in men. In active condition, no sex differences were observed. When blindfolded subjects have to estimate the traveling distance, the female error was larger than the male one. But, when subjects were asked to indicate the visual cue corresponding to the traveling distance, the male error was larger than the female one. Finally, pointing to the starting point (0°) after a whole-body rotation showed a larger deviation from 0° in men than in women. These results suggest that sex of the subjects influence brain computation of path integration information.

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Abstract. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is one of the most promising surveying techniques for rockslope characteriza- tion and monitoring. Landslide and rockfall movements can be detected by means of comparison of sequential scans. One of the most pressing challenges of natural hazards is com- bined temporal and spatial prediction of rockfall. An outdoor experiment was performed to ascertain whether the TLS in- strumental error is small enough to enable detection of pre- cursory displacements of millimetric magnitude. This con- sists of a known displacement of three objects relative to a stable surface. Results show that millimetric changes cannot be detected by the analysis of the unprocessed datasets. Dis- placement measurement are improved considerably by ap- plying Nearest Neighbour (NN) averaging, which reduces the error (1σ ) up to a factor of 6. This technique was ap- plied to displacements prior to the April 2007 rockfall event at Castellfollit de la Roca, Spain. The maximum precursory displacement measured was 45 mm, approximately 2.5 times the standard deviation of the model comparison, hampering the distinction between actual displacement and instrumen- tal error using conventional methodologies. Encouragingly, the precursory displacement was clearly detected by apply- ing the NN averaging method. These results show that mil- limetric displacements prior to failure can be detected using TLS.

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An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

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BACKGROUND: We sought to investigate the relationship between infarct and dyssynchrony post- myocardial infarct (MI), in a porcine model. Mechanical dyssynchrony post-MI is associated with left ventricular (LV) remodeling and increased mortality. METHODS: Cine, gadolinium-contrast, and tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) were performed pre-MI, 9 ± 2 days (early post-MI), and 33 ± 10 days (late post-MI) post-MI in 6 pigs to characterize cardiac morphology, location and extent of MI, and regional mechanics. LV mechanics were assessed by circumferential strain (eC). Electro-anatomic mapping (EAM) was performed within 24 hrs of CMR and prior to sacrifice. RESULTS: Mean infarct size was 21 ± 4% of LV volume with evidence of post-MI remodeling. Global eC significantly decreased post MI (-27 ± 1.6% vs. -18 ± 2.5% (early) and -17 ± 2.7% (late), p < 0.0001) with no significant change in peri-MI and MI segments between early and late time-points. Time to peak strain (TTP) was significantly longer in MI, compared to normal and peri-MI segments, both early (440 ± 40 ms vs. 329 ± 40 ms and 332 ± 36 ms, respectively; p = 0.0002) and late post-MI (442 ± 63 ms vs. 321 ± 40 ms and 355 ± 61 ms, respectively; p = 0.012). The standard deviation of TTP in 16 segments (SD16) significantly increased post-MI: 28 ± 7 ms to 50 ± 10 ms (early, p = 0.012) to 54 ± 19 ms (late, p = 0.004), with no change between early and late post-MI time-points (p = 0.56). TTP was not related to reduction of segmental contractility. EAM revealed late electrical activation and greatly diminished conduction velocity in the infarct (5.7 ± 2.4 cm/s), when compared to peri-infarct (18.7 ± 10.3 cm/s) and remote myocardium (39 ± 20.5 cm/s). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanical dyssynchrony occurs early after MI and is the result of delayed electrical and mechanical activation in the infarct.

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Several cross-sectional studies have shown the ability of the TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in European populations. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in a large female Caucasian population in the USA. This was a case-control study of 2,165 Caucasian American women aged 40 and older. Patients with illness or taking medications known to affect bone metabolism were excluded. Those in the fracture group (n = 289) had at least one low-energy fracture. BMD was measured at L1-L4, TBS calculated directly from the same DXA image. Descriptive statistics and inferential tests for difference were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were created to investigate possible association between independent variables and the status of fracture. Odds ratios per standard deviation decrease (OR) and areas under the ROC curve were calculated for discriminating parameters. Weak correlations were observed between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r = 0.33 and -0.17, respectively, p < 0.01). Mean age, weight, BMD and TBS were significantly different between control and fracture groups (all p ≤ 0.05), whereas no difference was noted for BMI or height. After adjusting for age, weight, BMD, smoking, and maternal and family history of fracture, TBS (but not BMD) remained a significant predictor of fracture: OR 1.28[1.13-1.46] even after adjustment. In a US female population, TBS again was able to discriminate between those with and those without fractures, even after adjusting for other clinical risk factors.

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BACKGROUND: The correction of oculomotor disorder in Grave's disease is applied on pathological extraocular muscles. Based on the global muscular restriction (bilateral forced duction test) and angular measurements, we have used a non-adjustable technique. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 21 patients (23 operations) with thyroid-associated orbitopathy operated for persisting diplopia. The angles of deviation in the 9 diagnostic directions of gaze and the field of binocular vision were measured with the Harm's tangent scale before and after surgery. Sixteen patients were operated only on vertical muscles. The mean follow-up was 45 months. RESULTS: 76 % of the patients (95 % confidence interval [CI], 58-94 %) obtained a large and centred field of binocular vision without prisms. 14 % (95 % CI, 0-29 %) had binocular vision with the use of prisms. Diplopia persisted in one patient despite 3 operations. Taking into consideration the interventions done before the patient was referred to us, the reintervention rate was 13 % (95 % CI, 0-28 %). CONCLUSIONS: A binocular field of vision can be successfully restored in the majority of patients with Graves' orbitopathy, using a non-adjustable surgical technique.

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Purpose/Objective(s): To implement a carotid dose sparing protocol using helical Tomotherapy in T1N0 squamous cell laryngeal carcinoma.Materials/Methods: Between July and August 2010, 7 men with stage T1N0 laryngeal carcinoma were included in this study. Age ranged from 47 - 74 years. Staging included endoscopic examination, CT-scan and MRI when indicated. Planned irradiation dose was 70 Gy in 35 fractions over 7 weeks. A simple treatment planning algorithm for carotid sparing was used: maximum point dose to the carotids 35 Gy, to the spinal cord 30 Gy, and 100% PTV volume to be covered with 95% of the prescribed dose. Carotid volume of interest extended to 1 cm above and below of the PTV. Doses to the carotid arteries, to the critical organs, and to the planned target volume (PTV) with our standard laryngeal irradiation protocol was compared. Daily megavoltage scans were obtained before each fraction. When necessary, the Planned Adaptive software (TomoTherapy Inc., Madison, WI) was used to evaluatethe need for a re-planning, which has never been indicated. Dose data were extracted using the VelocityAI software (Atlanta, GA), and data normalization and dose-volume histogram (DVH) interpolation were realized using the Igor Pro software (Portland, OR).Results:A significant (p\0.05) carotid dose sparing compared to our standard protocol with an average maximum point dose of 38.3 Gy (standard deviation [SD] 4.05 Gy), average mean dose of 18.59 Gy (SD 0.83 Gy) was achieved. In all patients, 95% of the carotid volume received less than 28.4 Gy (SD 0.98 Gy). The average maximum point dose to the spinal cord was 25.8 Gy (SD 3.24 Gy). PTV was fully covered with more than 95% of the prescribed dose for all patients with an average maximum point dose of 74.1 Gy and the absolute maximum dose in a single patient of 75.2 Gy. To date, the clinical outcomes have been excellent. Three patients (42%) developed stage 1 mucositis that was conservatively managed, and all the patients presented a mild to moderate dysphonia. All adverse effects resolved spontaneously in the month following the end of treatment. Early local control rate is 100% considering a 4 - 5 months post treatment follow-up.Conclusions: Helical Tomotherapy allows a clinically significant decrease of carotid irradiation dose compared to standard irradiation protocols with an acceptable spinal cord dose tradeoff. Moreover, this technique allows the PTV to be homogenously covered with a curative irradiation dose. Daily control imaging brings added security margins especially when working with high dose gradients. Further investigations and follow-up are underway to better evaluate the late clinical outcomes especially the local control rate, late laryngeal and vascular toxicity, and expected potential impact on cerebrovascular events.

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PURPOSE: To objectively compare quantitative parameters related to image quality attained at coronary magnetic resonance (MR) angiography of the right coronary artery (RCA) performed at 7 T and 3 T. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board approval was obtained, and volunteers provided signed informed consent. Ten healthy adult volunteers (mean age ± standard deviation, 25 years ± 4; seven men, three women) underwent navigator-gated three-dimensional MR angiography of the RCA at 7 T and 3 T. For 7 T, a custom-built quadrature radiofrequency transmit-receive surface coil was used. At 3 T, a commercial body radiofrequency transmit coil and a cardiac coil array for signal reception were used. Segmented k-space gradient-echo imaging with spectrally selective adiabatic fat suppression was performed, and imaging parameters were similar at both field strengths. Contrast-to-noise ratio between blood and epicardial fat; signal-to-noise ratio of the blood pool; RCA vessel sharpness, diameter, and length; and navigator efficiency were quantified at both field strengths and compared by using a Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: The contrast-to-noise ratio between blood and epicardial fat was significantly improved at 7 T when compared with that at 3 T (87 ± 34 versus 52 ± 13; P = .01). Signal-to-noise ratio of the blood pool was increased at 7 T (109 ± 47 versus 67 ± 19; P = .02). Vessel sharpness obtained at 7 T was also higher (58% ± 9 versus 50% ± 5; P = .04). At the same time, RCA vessel diameter and length and navigator efficiency showed no significant field strength-dependent difference. CONCLUSION: In our quantitative and qualitative study comparing in vivo human imaging of the RCA at 7 T and 3 T in young healthy volunteers, parameters related to image quality attained at 7 T equal or surpass those from 3 T.

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Given the important role of the shoulder sensorimotor system in shoulder stability, its assessment appears of interest. Force platform monitoring of centre of pressure (CoP) in upper-limb weight-bearing positions is of interest as it allows integration of all aspects of shoulder sensorimotor control. This study aimed to determine the feasibility and reliability of shoulder sensorimotor control assessment by force platform. Forty-five healthy subjects performed two sessions of CoP measurement using Win-Posturo(®) Medicapteurs force platform in an upper-limb weight-bearing position with the lower limbs resting on a table to either the anterior superior iliac spines (P1) or upper patellar poles (P2). Four different conditions were tested in each position in random order: eyes open or eyes closed with trunk supported by both hands and eyes open with trunk supported on the dominant or non-dominant side. P1 reliability values were globally moderate to high for CoP length, CoP velocity and CoP standard deviation (SD), standard error of measurement ranged from 6·0% to 26·5%, except for CoP area. P2 reliability values were globally low and not clinically acceptable. Our results suggest that shoulder sensorimotor control assessment by force platform is feasible and has good reliability in upper-limb weight-bearing positions when the lower limbs are resting on a table to the anterior superior iliac spines. CoP length, CoP velocity and CoP SD velocity appear to be the most reliable variables.

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Through the history of Electrical Engineering education, vectorial and phasorial diagrams have been used as a fundamental learning tool. At present, computational power has replaced them by long data lists, the result of solving equation systems by means of numerical methods. In this sense, diagrams have been shifted to an academic background and although theoretically explained, they are not used in a practical way within specific examples. This fact may be against the understanding of the complex behavior of the electrical power systems by students. This article proposes a modification of the classical Perrine-Baum diagram construction to allowing both a more practical representation and a better understanding of the behavior of a high-voltage electric line under different levels of load. This modification allows, at the same time, the forecast of the obsolescence of this behavior and line’s loading capacity. Complementary, we evaluate the impact of this tool in the learning process showing comparative undergraduate results during three academic years

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INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the characteristics and outcome of patients suffering early major worsening (EMW) after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and assess the parameters associated with it. METHODS: All consecutive patients with AIS in the ASTRAL registry until 10/2010 were included. EMW was defined as an NIHSS increase of ≥8 points within the first 24 h after admission. The Bootstrap version of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the χ(2)-test were used for the comparison of continuous and categorical covariates, respectively, between patients with and without EMW. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of EMW. RESULTS: Among 2155 patients, 43 (2.0 %) had an EMW. EMW was independently associated with hemorrhagic transformation (OR 22.6, 95 % CI 9.4-54.2), cervical artery dissection (OR 9.5, 95 % CI 4.4-20.6), initial dysarthria (OR 3.7, 95 % CI 1.7-8.0), and intravenous thrombolysis (OR 2.1, 95 % CI 1.1-4.3), whereas a negative association was identified with initial eye deviation (OR 0.4, 95 % CI 0.2-0.9). Favorable outcome at 3 and 12 months was less frequent in patients with EMW compared to patients without (11.6 vs. 55.3 % and 16.3 vs. 50.7 %, respectively), and case fatality was higher (53.5 vs. 12.9 % and 55.8 vs. 16.8 %, respectively). Stroke recurrence within 3 months in surviving patients was similar between patients with and without EMW (9.3 vs. 9.0 %, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Worsening of ≥8 points in the NIHSS score during the first 24 h in AIS patients is related to cervical artery dissection and hemorrhagic transformation. It justifies urgent repeat parenchymal and arterial imaging. Both conditions may be influenced by targeted interventions in the acute phase of stroke.