Gaussian process change point models

We combine Bayesian online change point detection with Gaussian processes to create a nonparametric time series model which can handle change points. The model can be used to locate change points in an online manner; and, unlike other Bayesian online change point detection algorithms, is applicable when temporal correlations in a regime are expected. We show three variations on how to apply Gaussian processes in the change point context, each with their own advantages. We present methods to reduce the computational burden of these models and demonstrate it on several real world data sets. Copyright 2010 by the author(s)/owner(s).

Comparison between empirical formulae of intake vortices

The hydrodynamic properties of free surface vortices at hydraulic intakes were investigated. Based on the axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations and empirical assumptions, two sets of formulations for the velocity distributions and the free surface profiles are proposed and validated against measurements available in the literature. Compared with previous formulae, the modifications based on Mih's formula are found to greatly improve the agreement with the experimental data. Physical model tests were also conducted to study the intake vortex of the Xiluodu hydroelectric project in China. The proposed velocity distribution formula was applied to the solid boundary as considered by the method of images. A good agreement was again observed between the prediction and the measurements. © 2011 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.

Simplifying mooring analysis for deepwater systems using truncation

Over recent years academia and industry have engaged with the challenge of model testing deepwater structures at conventional scales. One approach to the limited depth problem has been to truncate the lines. This concept will be introduced, highlighting the need to better understand line dynamic processes. The type of line truncation developed here models the upper sections of each line in detail, capturing wave action and all coupling effects with the vessel, terminating to an approximate analytical model that aims to simulate the remainder of the line. A rationale for this is that in deep water transverse elastic waves of a line are likely to decay before they are reflected at the seabed because of nonlinear hydrodynamic drag forces. The first part of this paper is centered on verification of this rationale. A simplified model of a mooring line that describes the transverse dynamics in wave frequency is used, adopting the equation of motion of an inextensible taut string. The line is submerged in still water, one end fixed at the bottom the other assumed to follow the vessel response, which can be harmonic or random. A dimensional analysis, supported by exact benchmark numerical solutions, has shown that it is possible to produce a universal curve for the decay of transverse vibrations along the line, which is suitable for any kind of line with any top motion. This has a significant engineering benefit, allowing for a rapid assessment of line dynamics - it can be useful in deciding whether a truncated line model is appropriate, and if so, at which point truncation might be applied. This is followed by developing a truncation mechanism, formulating an end approximation that can reproduce the correct impedance, had the line been continuous to full depth. It has been found that below a certain length criterion, which is also universal, the transverse vibrational characteristics for each line are inertia driven. As such the truncated model can assume a linear damper whose coefficient depends on the line properties and frequency of vibration. Copyright © 2011 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE).

Effects of human activities on migratory waterbirds at Lashihai Lake, China

Surveys on migratory waterbirds and their habitats at Lashihai Lake, China, were conducted from October 1999 to April 2000. Five fixed points, representing different degrees of habitat disturbance and quality, were selected around the lake. We used counts (n = 30) to compare diversity and abundance of waterbirds at each point and evaluate the effects of habitat disturbance. The distribution of waterbirds was affected by disturbance, with snore than one-third of the total species and nearly half of the total individuals occurring at the least disturbed point. Species richness was weakly and abundance was strongly correlated to habitat disturbance, but not to habitat quality. Habitat destruction and use of canoes were prominent at the lake. Naxi ethnic fishermen (n = 37) were interviewed. They caught 570 waterbirds between October 1999 and March 2000 in fishing nets. An estimation of the total number of waterbirds been trapped on the lake is 6164. Diving species were most susceptible. Conservation measures that should implement immediately include the cessation of habitat destruction, better plan for the development of tourism, a reduction in the number of canoes and zoning of the non-fishing area. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of bend orientation on life and puncture point location due to solid particle erosion of a high concentration flow in pneumatic conveyors

An investigation into predicting failure of pneumatic conveyor pipe bends due to hard solid particle impact erosion has been carried out on an industrial scale test rig. The bend puncture point locations may vary with many factors. However, bend orientation was suspected of being a main factor due to the biased particle distribution pattern of a high concentration flow. In this paper, puncture point locations have been studied with different pipe bend orientations and geometry (a solids loading ratio of 10 being used for the high concentration flow). Test results confirmed that the puncture point location is indeed most significantly influenced by the bend orientation (especially for a high concentration flow) due to the biased particle distribution and biased particle flux distribution. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.