990 resultados para estimation population
Resumo:
Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.
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The impact of biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 and of its genetically modified, antibiotic-overproducing derivative CHA0/pME3424 on a reconstructed population of the plant-beneficial Sinorhizobium meliloti bacteria was assessed in gnotobiotic systems. In sterile soil, the final density of the reconstructed S. meliloti population decreased by more than one order of magnitude in the presence of either of the Pseudomonas strains when compared to a control without addition of P. fluorescens. Moreover, there was a change in the proportion of each individual S. meliloti strain within the population. Plant tests also revealed changes in the nodulating S. meliloti population in the presence of strains CHA0 or CHA0/pME3424. In both treatments one S. meliloti strain, f43, was significantly reduced in its root nodule occupancy. Analysis of alfalfa yields showed a slight but statistically significant increase in shoot dry weight when strain CHA0 was added to the reconstructed S. meliloti population whereas no such effect was observed with CHA0/pME3424.
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OBJECTIVES: To analyse the prevalence of lifetime recourse to prostitution (LRP) among men in the general population of Switzerland from a trend and cohort perspective. METHODS: Using nine repeated representative cross-sectional surveys from 1987 to 2000, age-specific estimates of LRP were computed. Trends and period effect were analysed as the evolution of cross-sectional population estimates within age groups and overall. Cohort analysis relied on cohorts constructed from the 1989 survey and followed in subsequent waves. Age and cohort effects were modelled using logistic regression and non-parametric monotone regression. RESULTS: Whereas prevalence for the younger groups was found to be logically lower, there was no consistent increasing or decreasing trend over the years; there was no significant period effect. For the 17-30 year age group, the mean estimate over 1987-2000 was 11.5% (range 8.3 to 12.7%); for the 31-45 year group, the mean was 21.5% (range over 1989-2000 20.3 to 23.0%). Regarding cohort analysis, the prevalence of LRP was found to increase steeply in the youngest ages before reaching a plateau near the age of 40 years. At the age of 43 years, the prevalence was estimated to be 22.6% (95% CI 21.1% to 24.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The steep increase in the cohort-wise prevalence of LRP in younger ages calls for a concentration of prevention activities in young people. If the plateauing at approximately 40 years of age is not followed by a further increase later in life, which is not known, then consumers of paid sex would be repeat buyers only, a fact that should be taken into account by prevention.
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The European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network of population-based congenital anomaly registries is an important source of epidemiologic information on congenital anomalies in Europe covering live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. EUROCAT's policy is to strive for high-quality data, while ensuring consistency and transparency across all member registries. A set of 30 data quality indicators (DQIs) was developed to assess five key elements of data quality: completeness of case ascertainment, accuracy of diagnosis, completeness of information on EUROCAT variables, timeliness of data transmission, and availability of population denominator information. This article describes each of the individual DQIs and presents the output for each registry as well as the EUROCAT (unweighted) average, for 29 full member registries for 2004-2008. This information is also available on the EUROCAT website for previous years. The EUROCAT DQIs allow registries to evaluate their performance in relation to other registries and allows appropriate interpretations to be made of the data collected. The DQIs provide direction for improving data collection and ascertainment, and they allow annual assessment for monitoring continuous improvement. The DQI are constantly reviewed and refined to best document registry procedures and processes regarding data collection, to ensure appropriateness of DQI, and to ensure transparency so that the data collected can make a substantial and useful contribution to epidemiologic research on congenital anomalies.
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This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.
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A sylvatic Triatoma infestans DM (dark morph) population detected in the Bolivian Chaco was characterized and compared with various domestic ones. The degree of differentiation of DM was clearly within the T. infestans intra-specific level. Nevertheless marked chromatic and morphometric differences as well as differences in antennal pattern, chromosome banding and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA support the hypothesis of a distinct population. Continuous exchange of insects between wild and domestic habitats seems unlikely in the Chaco.
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Although Colombia presents an enormous biological diversity, few studies have been conducted on the population genetics of Trypanosoma cruzi. This study was carried out with 23 Colombian stocks of this protozoa analyzed for 13 isoenzymatic loci. The Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, the genetic diversity and heterogeneity, the genetic relationships and the possible spatial structure of these 23 Colombian stocks of T. cruzi were estimated. The majority of results obtained are in agreement with a clonal population structure. Nevertheless, two aspects expected in a clonal structure were not discovered in the Colombian T. cruzi stocks. There was an absence of given zymodemes over-represented from a geographical point of view and the presumed temporal stabilizing selective phenomena was not observed either in the Colombian stocks sampled several times through the years of the study. Some hypotheses are discussed in order to explain the results found.
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Allocreadium lobatum Wallin, 1909 has been reported in cyprinid species of freshwater fish in Canada and in the United States. The population biology of A. lobatum in the host Semotilus atromaculatus Mitchill was studied from May through December 1991, in a USA creek. Overall prevalence (64%) and mean intensity (4.4 ± 0.4) were greater than previously reported while abundance, reported for the first time, was 2.8 ± 0.3. Several trends in A. lobatum population biology as a function of S. atromaculatus length were identified. Mean intensity and abundance of A. lobatum increased with host size and significant differences in prevalence and A. lobatum lengths were found to correlate with host lengths.
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Through microsatellite analysis of 53 monoclonal populations of Trypanosoma cruzi, we found a remarkable degree of genetic polymorphism with no single multilocus genotype being observed more than once. The microsatellite profile proved to be stable during 70 generations of the CL Brener clone in culture. The microsatellite profiling presented also high diagnostic sensitivity since DNA amplifications could be achieved with less than 100 fg DNA, corresponding to half parasite total DNA content. Based on these technical attributes the microsatellite assay turns out to be an important tool for direct typing T. cruzi in biological samples. By using this approach we were able to type T. cruzi in feces of artificially infected bugs and in single cells sorted by FACS. The microsatellites have shown to be excellent markers for T. cruzi phylogenetic reconstruction. We used maximum parsimony based on the minimum number of mutational steps to build an unrooted Wagner network, which confirms previous conclusions based on the analysis of the D7 domain of the LSU rDNA gene that T. cruzi is composed by two major groups. We also obtained evidence that strains belonging to rRNA group 2 are subdivided into two genetically distant clusters, and that one of these clusters is more related to rRNA group 1/2. These results suggest different origins for these strains.
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Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements represents a new driver oncogenic event in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ALK positive patients account for a 1-7% of NSCLC patients. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ALK positive patients in a cohort of NSCLC patients and to compare inmunohistochemistry with D5F3 monoclonal antibody with gold standard method fluorescence in situ hybridation
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Anti-basal ganglia antibodies (ABGAs) have been suggested to be a hallmark of autoimmunity in Gilles de la Tourette's syndrome (GTS), possibly related to prior exposure to streptococcal infection. In order to detect whether the presence of ABGAs was associated with subtle structural changes in GTS, whole-brain analysis using independent sets of T(1) and diffusion tensor imaging MRI-based methods were performed on 22 adults with GTS with (n = 9) and without (n = 13) detectable ABGAs in the serum. Voxel-based morphometry analysis failed to detect any significant difference in grey matter density between ABGA-positive and ABGA-negative groups in caudate nuclei, putamina, thalami and frontal lobes. These results suggest that ABGA synthesis is not related to structural changes in grey and white matter (detectable with these methods) within frontostriatal circuits.
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Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.