Cross sectional default probabilities in european corporate bonds

This study attempts to identify basis-trading opportunities in the European banking sector by comparing two different measures for the market’s assessment of risk: market-observed CDS spreads and model-implied Z-spreads. Using a sample of 10 banks, over a period of 3 years following the European banking crisis, it can be concluded that there were arbitrage opportunities in the sector, as evidenced by the derived negative bases.

Non-cell autonomous neuroprotective effect of carbon monoxide : microglia-to-neuron communication

RESUMO: A isquémia cerebral é uma das doenças mais predominantes a nivel mundial, sendo uma das principais causas de mortalidade e invalidez. Parte da propagação de dano no cérebro é causado por inflamação descontrolada, causada principalmente por disfunção da microglia. Desta forma, existe a necessidade de tentar desenvolver estratégias para melhor compreender e modular as acções destas células. O monóxido de carbono (CO), é uma molécula endógena com provas dadas como anti-neuroinflamatório em vários modelos. Assim, o principal objectivo do trabalho foi o estudo do CO como um modulador da acção da microglia, com principal foco dado à comunicação entre estas células e neurónios, tentando entender se existe um efeito neuroprotector por inibição da inflamação. Um protocolo de meio condicionado foi estabelecido usando as linhas celulares BV2 e SH-SY5Y, de microglia e neurónio. A molécula CORM-A1, que liberta expontaniamente CO, foi usada como método de entrega da molécula às celulas. Demonstrámos que o pre-tratamento de células BV2 com CORM-A1 gera neuroprotecção já que reduz a morte celular de neurónios SH-SY5Y quando são incubados com meio condicionado de microglia activada em conjunto com o pró-oxidante t-BHP (tert-butil hidroperóxido). Assim, considerámos que o CO promove neuroprotecção ao inibir as acções inflamatórias da microglia. O papel anti-inflamatório da molécula CORM-A1 foi confirmado quando se verificou que pré-tratamento desta molécula em microglia BV2 limita a secreção de TNF-α mas estimula a secreção de IL-10. Por último, a CORM-A1 induziu a expressão do receptor da microglia CD200R1, molécula que participa na comunicação neurónio-microglia e fundamental para a modulação das acções inflamatórias destas últimas. Em suma, o nosso trabalho reforçou as propriedades anti-neuroinflamatórias do CO e uma capacidade de modular viabilidade neuronal através do seu efeito a nível de comunicação célula-célula. ---------------------------- ABSTRACT: Brain ischemia is a widespread disease worldwide, being one of the main causes of mortality and permanent disability. A portion of the damage that ensues following the ischemic event is caused by unrestrained inflammation, which is mainly orchestrated by exacerbated microglial activity. Hence, developing strategies for modulating microglial inflammation is a major concern nowadays. The endogenous molecule carbon monoxide (CO) has been shown to possess anti-neuroinflammatory properties using in vitro and in vivo approaches. Thus, our objective was to study CO as modulator of microglial activity, in particular in what concerns their communication with neurons, by promoting neuronal viability and limiting inflammatory output of activated microglia. A conditioned media strategy was established with BV2 microglia and SH-SY5Y neurons as cell models. CO-releasing molecule A1 (CORM-A1), a compound that releases CO spontaneously, was used as method of CO delivery to cells. We found that CORM-A1 pre-treatment in BV2 cells yields neuroprotective results, as it limits cell death when SH-SY5Y neurons are challenged with conditioned media from LPS-activated microglia and the pro-oxidant t-BHP (tert-butyl-hydroperoxide). Thus, we assumed carbon monoxide promotes neuroprotection via inhibition of microglial inflammation, displaying a non-cell autonomous role. CORM-A1 pre-treatment limited inflammation by inhibiting BV2 secretion of TNF-α and stimulating IL-10 production. These results reinforce that CO’s anti-inflammatory role confers neuroprotection, as the alterations in these cytokines occur concurrently with the increase in SH-SY5Y viability. Finally, we showed for the first time that carbon monoxide promotes the expression of CD200R1, a microglial receptor involved in neuron-glia communication and modulation of microglia inflammation. Further studies are necessary to clarify this role. Altogether, other than just highlighting CO as an anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective molecule, this work set the foundation for disclosing its involvement in cell-to-cell communication.

Alpha generation with Twitter’s daily momentum

This thesis does not set out to focus on the dynamics relationship between Twitter and stock prices, but instead tries to understand if using relevant information extracted from tweets has the power to increase investors’ stock picking ability, and generate alpha in portfolio’s choice relative to a benchmark. Despite the short period analyzed, it gives promising results that the sentiment analysis performed by Social Market Analytics Inc. applied to an equity portfolio, is able to generate positive abnormal returns, statistically significant in and out of sample.

Introducing risk parity on momentum and carry portfolios

The momentum and carry anomalies have been extensively documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues relating to the risks associated to them that are left unexplained. One is the fact that an investor holds for too long the most volatile assets, both under momentum and carry strategies. Therefore, they present a level of risk and a probability of extreme events to happen inconsistent. This work project hypothesizes and proves the introduction of risk parity rules on the weights of the portfolios do increase risk rewarding of carry strategies. However, it fails under momentum strategies.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

IPO impact on industry incumbents

The creation of an innovative company is suggestive of change in an industry. To test that change this paper tests the impact of IPOs on industry incumbents. IPOs are found to happen in industries that exhibited positive abnormal returns for up to 5 years before the IPO date. The IPO date is found to coincide with the end of that industry abnormal return profile. This paper suggests this evidence is consistent with the IPO acting as mechanism of enforcing market efficiency at the industry level.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Bond portfolio diversification

Portfolio diversification benefits have been extensively documented and acknowledge in the literature since 1952. However, the majority of the studies have focus on an equity context, and only very few on bonds. The study purposed tries to understand and measure the diversification benefits for a pure bond portfolio by investing in securities with different credit risks, maturities and even geographies. Diversification benefits were achieved under the proposed model and some conclusions were withdrawn.

Quadratic programming versus second order con programming in portfolio optimization

Despite the extensive literature in finding new models to replace the Markowitz model or trying to increase the accuracy of its input estimations, there is less studies about the impact on the results of using different optimization algorithms. This paper aims to add some research to this field by comparing the performance of two optimization algorithms in drawing the Markowitz Efficient Frontier and in real world investment strategies. Second order cone programming is a faster algorithm, appears to be more efficient, but is impossible to assert which algorithm is better. Quadratic Programming often shows superior performance in real investment strategies.

A comparative review of risk based portfolio allocations: An empirical study throughout rising yields

Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.

Carry and trend-following strategies

Recent research has shown that carry and trend strategies when combined lead to significant risk-adjusted returns that can be very attractive to investors, at a low cost with small and positive skewness. This study proposes to combine both carry and trend-following, considering a data set of ten years (09/2005-09/2015), within a portfolio composed by three major asset classes: currencies, commodities and equity indices. Following a futures-based methodology, the obtained results show that, indeed, the strategy results inevitably in higher returns and greater sharpe ratios for every asset class in study. This outcome results from the fact that trend proved to provide a significant hedge to the downside risk that carry is exposed to.

IB1/JIP-1 controls JNK activation and increased during prostatic LNCaP cells neuroendocrine differentiation.

The scaffold protein Islet-Brain1/c-Jun amino-terminal kinase Interacting Protein-1 (IB1/JIP-1) is a modulator of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) activity, which has been implicated in pleiotrophic cellular functions including cell differentiation, division, and death. In this study, we described the presence of IB1/JIP-1 in epithelium of the rat prostate as well as in the human prostatic LNCaP cells. We investigated the functional role of IB1/JIP-1 in LNCaP cells exposed to the proapoptotic agent N-(4-hydroxyphenyl)retinamide (4-HPR) which induced a reduction of IB1/JIP-1 content and a concomittant increase in JNK activity. Conversely, IB1/JIP-1 overexpression using a viral gene transfer prevented the JNK activation and the 4-HPR-induced apoptosis was blunted. In prostatic adenocarcinoma cells, the neuroendocrine (NE) phenotype acquisition is associated with tumor progression and androgen independence. During NE transdifferentiation of LNCaP cells, IB1/JIP-1 levels were increased. This regulated expression of IB1/JIP-1 is secondary to a loss of the neuronal transcriptional repressor neuron restrictive silencing factor (NRSF/REST) function which is known to repress IB1/JIP-1. Together, these results indicated that IB1/JIP-1 participates to the neuronal phenotype of the human LNCaP cells and is a regulator of JNK signaling pathway.

Ear acupuncture and fMRI: a pilot study for assessing the specificity of auricular points.

In recent years research explored different acupuncture stimulation techniques but interest has focused primarily on somatic acupuncture and on a limited number of acupoints. As regards ear Acupuncture (EA) there is still some criticism about the clinical specificity of auricular points/areas representing organs or structures of the body. The aim of this study was to verify through (Functional magnetic resonance imaging) fMRI the hypothesis of EA point specificity using two auricular points having different topographical locations and clinical significance. Six healthy volunteers underwent two experimental fMRI sessions: the first was dedicated to the stimulation of Thumb Auricular Acupoint (TAA) and the second to the stimulation of Brain Stem Auricular Acupoint (BSAA). The stimulation of the needle placed in the TAA of the left ear produced an increase in activation bilaterally in the parietal operculum, region of the secondary somatosensory area SII. Stimulation of the needle placed in the BSAA of the left ear showed a pattern that largely overlapped regions belonging to the pain matrix, as shown to be involved in previous somatic acupuncture studies but with local differences in the left amygdala, anterior cingulate cortex, and cerebellum. The differences in activation patterns between TAA and BSAA stimulation support the specificity of the two acupoints. Moreover, the peculiarity of the regions involved in BSAA stimulation compared to those involved in the pain matrix, is in accordance with the therapeutic indications of this acupoint that include head pain, dizziness and vertigo. Our results provide preliminary evidence on the specificity of two auricular acupoints; further research is warranted by means of fMRI both in healthy volunteers and in patients carrying neurological/psychiatric syndromes.

Vitamin D deficiency and a CYP27B1-1260 promoter polymorphism are associated with chronic hepatitis C and poor response to interferon-alfa based therapy

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D is an important immune modulator and preliminary data indicated an association between vitamin D deficiency and sustained virologic response (SVR) rates in patients with chronic hepatitis C. We therefore performed a comprehensive analysis on the impact of vitamin D serum levels and of genetic polymorphisms within the vitamin D cascade on chronic hepatitis C and its treatment. METHODS: Vitamin D serum levels, genetic polymorphisms within the vitamin D receptor and the 1α- hydroxylase were determined in a cohort of 468 HCV genotype 1, 2 and 3 infected patients who were treated with interferon-alfa based regimens. RESULTS: Chronic hepatitis C was associated with a high incidence of severe vitamin D deficiency compared to controls (25(OH)D3<10 ng/mL in 25% versus 12%, p<0.00001), which was in part reversible after HCV eradication. 25(OH)D3 deficiency correlated with SVR in HCV genotype 2 and 3 patients (63% and 83% SVR for patients with and without severe vitamin D deficiency, respectively, p<0.001). In addition, the CYPB27-1260 promoter polymorphism rs10877012 had substantial impact on 1-25- dihydroxyvitamin D serum levels and SVR rates in HCV genotype 1, 2 and 3 infected patients. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is associated with vitamin D deficiency. Reduced 25- hydroxyvitamin D levels and CYPB27-1260 promoter polymorphism are associated with failure to achieve SVR in HCV genotype 1, 2, 3 infected patients.

Use of abatacept in rheumatoid arthritis.

Abatacept (CTLA-Ig), a modulator of T-lymphocyte activation, has been approved by the Swiss health regulatory agency Swissmedic for the treatment of active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This article summarises the key trial findings for this biologic agent in RA in different situations such as early erosive rheumatoid arthritis (RA), biologic-naïve RA, RA before and after the use of methotrexate or TNF-inhibitors and includes safety information from these trials. Based on these data, recommendations for clinical practice in Switzerland are made by a panel of experts.