Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Patent policy, patent pools, and the accumulation of claims in sequential innovation

We present a dynamic model where the accumulation of patents generates an increasing number of claims on sequential innovation. We compare innovation activity under three regimes -patents, no-patents, and patent pools- and find that none of them can reach the first best. We find that the first best can be reached through a decentralized tax-subsidy mechanism, by which innovators receive a subsidy when they innovate, and are taxed with subsequent innovations. This finding implies that optimal transfers work in the exact opposite way as traditional patents. Finally, we consider patents of finite duration and determine the optimal patent length.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

The de facto independence of regulatory agencies and its consequences for policy making and regulatory outcomes

This dissertation focuses on the practice of regulatory governance, throughout the study of the functioning of formally independent regulatory agencies (IRAs), with special attention to their de facto independence. The research goals are grounded on a "neo-positivist" (or "reconstructed positivist") position (Hawkesworth 1992; Radaelli 2000b; Sabatier 2000). This perspective starts from the ontological assumption that even if subjective perceptions are constitutive elements of political phenomena, a real world exists beyond any social construction and can, however imperfectly, become the object of scientific inquiry. Epistemologically, it follows that hypothetical-deductive theories with explanatory aims can be tested by employing a proper methodology and set of analytical techniques. It is thus possible to make scientific inferences and general conclusions to a certain extent, according to a Bayesian conception of knowledge, in order to update the prior scientific beliefs in the truth of the related hypotheses (Howson 1998), while acknowledging the fact that the conditions of truth are at least partially subjective and historically determined (Foucault 1988; Kuhn 1970). At the same time, a sceptical position is adopted towards the supposed disjunction between facts and values and the possibility of discovering abstract universal laws in social science. It has been observed that the current version of capitalism corresponds to the golden age of regulation, and that since the 1980s no government activity in OECD countries has grown faster than regulatory functions (Jacobs 1999). Following an apparent paradox, the ongoing dynamics of liberalisation, privatisation, decartelisation, internationalisation, and regional integration hardly led to the crumbling of the state, but instead promoted a wave of regulatory growth in the face of new risks and new opportunities (Vogel 1996). Accordingly, a new order of regulatory capitalism is rising, implying a new division of labour between state and society and entailing the expansion and intensification of regulation (Levi-Faur 2005). The previous order, relying on public ownership and public intervention and/or on sectoral self-regulation by private actors, is being replaced by a more formalised, expert-based, open, and independently regulated model of governance. Independent regulation agencies (IRAs), that is, formally independent administrative agencies with regulatory powers that benefit from public authority delegated from political decision makers, represent the main institutional feature of regulatory governance (Gilardi 2008). IRAs constitute a relatively new technology of regulation in western Europe, at least for certain domains, but they are increasingly widespread across countries and sectors. For instance, independent regulators have been set up for regulating very diverse issues, such as general competition, banking and finance, telecommunications, civil aviation, railway services, food safety, the pharmaceutical industry, electricity, environmental protection, and personal data privacy. Two attributes of IRAs deserve a special mention. On the one hand, they are formally separated from democratic institutions and elected politicians, thus raising normative and empirical concerns about their accountability and legitimacy. On the other hand, some hard questions about their role as political actors are still unaddressed, though, together with regulatory competencies, IRAs often accumulate executive, (quasi-)legislative, and adjudicatory functions, as well as about their performance.

Oncology clinicians' defenses and adherence to communication skills training with simulated patients: an exploratory study.

The aim of this exploratory study was to assess the impact of clinicians' defense mechanisms-defined as self-protective psychological mechanisms triggered by the affective load of the encounter with the patient-on adherence to a communication skills training (CST). The population consisted of oncology clinicians (N = 31) who participated in a CST. An interview with simulated cancer patients was recorded prior and 6 months after CST. Defenses were measured before and after CST and correlated with a prototype of an ideally conducted interview based on the criteria of CST-teachers. Clinicians who used more adaptive defense mechanisms showed better adherence to communication skills after CST than clinicians with less adaptive defenses (F(1, 29) = 5.26, p = 0.03, d = 0.42). Improvement in communication skills after CST seems to depend on the initial levels of defenses of the clinician prior to CST. Implications for practice and training are discussed. Communication has been recognized as a central element of cancer care [1]. Ineffective communication may contribute to patients' confusion, uncertainty, and increased difficulty in asking questions, expressing feelings, and understanding information [2, 3], and may also contribute to clinicians' lack of job satisfaction and emotional burnout [4]. Therefore, communication skills trainings (CST) for oncology clinicians have been widely developed over the last decade. These trainings should increase the skills of clinicians to respond to the patient's needs, and enhance an adequate encounter with the patient with efficient exchange of information [5]. While CSTs show a great diversity with regard to their pedagogic approaches [6, 7], the main elements of CST consist of (1) role play between participants, (2) analysis of videotaped interviews with simulated patients, and (3) interactive case discussion provided by participants. As recently stated in a consensus paper [8], CSTs need to be taught in small groups (up to 10-12 participants) and have a minimal duration of at least 3 days in order to be effective. Several systematic reviews evaluated the impact of CST on clinicians' communication skills [9-11]. Effectiveness of CST can be assessed by two main approaches: participant-based and patient-based outcomes. Measures can be self-reported, but, according to Gysels et al. [10], behavioral assessment of patient-physician interviews [12] is the most objective and reliable method for measuring change after training. Based on 22 studies on participants' outcomes, Merckaert et al. [9] reported an increase of communication skills and participants' satisfaction with training and changes in attitudes and beliefs. The evaluation of CST remains a challenging task and variables mediating skills improvement remain unidentified. We recently thus conducted a study evaluating the impact of CST on clinicians' defenses by comparing the evolution of defenses of clinicians participating in CST with defenses of a control group without training [13]. Defenses are unconscious psychological processes which protect from anxiety or distress. Therefore, they contribute to the individual's adaptation to stress [14]. Perry refers to the term "defensive functioning" to indicate the degree of adaptation linked to the use of a range of specific defenses by an individual, ranging from low defensive functioning when he or she tends to use generally less adaptive defenses (such as projection, denial, or acting out) to high defensive functioning when he or she tends to use generally more adaptive defenses (such as altruism, intellectualization, or introspection) [15, 16]. Although several authors have addressed the emotional difficulties of oncology clinicians when facing patients and their need to preserve themselves [7, 17, 18], no research has yet been conducted on the defenses of clinicians. For example, repeated use of less adaptive defenses, such as denial, may allow the clinician to avoid or reduce distress, but it also diminishes his ability to respond to the patient's emotions, to identify and to respond adequately to his needs, and to foster the therapeutic alliance. Results of the above-mentioned study [13] showed two groups of clinicians: one with a higher defensive functioning and one with a lower defensive functioning prior to CST. After the training, a difference in defensive functioning between clinicians who participated in CST and clinicians of the control group was only showed for clinicians with a higher defensive functioning. Some clinicians may therefore be more responsive to CST than others. To further address this issue, the present study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the level of adherence to an "ideally conducted interview", as defined by the teachers of the CST, and the level of the clinician' defensive functioning. We hypothesized that, after CST, clinicians with a higher defensive functioning show a greater adherence to the "ideally conducted interview" than clinicians with a lower defensive functioning.

Contact and communication with healthcare providers regarding influenza vaccination during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic.

Objective. The existence of two vaccines seasonal and pandemic-created the potential for confusion and misinformation among consumers during the 2009-2010 vaccination season. We measured the frequency and nature of influenza vaccination communication between healthcare providers and adults for both seasonal and 2009 influenza A(H1N1) vaccination and quantified its association with uptake of the two vaccines.Methods. We analyzed data from 4040 U.S. adult members of a nationally representative online panel surveyed between March 4th and March 24th, 2010. We estimated prevalence rates and adjusted associations between vaccine uptake and vaccination-related communication between patients and healthcare providers using bivariate probit models.Results. 64.1% (95%-CI: 61.5%-66.6%) of adults did not receive any provider-issued influenza vaccination recommendation. Adults who received a provider-issued vaccination recommendation were 14.1 (95%-CI: -2.4 to 30.6) to 32.1 (95%-CI: 24.3-39.8) percentage points more likely to be vaccinated for influenza than adults without a provider recommendation, after adjusting for other characteristics associated with vaccination.Conclusions. Influenza vaccination communication between healthcare providers and adults was relatively uncommon during the 2009-2010 pandemic. Increased communication could significantly enhance influenza vaccination rates. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health Impact Assessment Policy analysis tool

The policy analysis tool provides a framework to review government and other relevant agency policy related to the proposal.

Community Education Needs to be Supported by Strong Public Policy to Tackle Food Poverty

Community education needs to be supported by strong public policy if it is to be fully effective at tackling food poverty and obesity, a project evaluation by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) has found. In its evaluation of Decent Food for All (DFfA) - a major project to improve community diet and health - IPH found that where people live and shop had a greater impact on their diet than their own individual awareness and attitudes. Access Tackling Food Poverty: lessons from the Decent Food for All intervention at www.publichealth.ie DFfA was funded by safefood (the Food Safety Promotion Board) and the Food Standards Agency Northern Ireland. The project lasted four years and included hundreds of community education activities designed to improve diet in poorer parts of Armagh and South Tyrone. safefood commissioned IPH to undertake the evaluation of DFfA. Dr. Kevin Balanda, IPH Associate Director, said 'The aim of the project was to reduce food poverty (this is defined as not being able to consume adequate healthy food) and improve health in the target communities. DFfA delivered over 370 core activities to 3,100 residents including local education talks on diet, cookery workshops, fresh fruit in schools, healthy food tastings and information stands. One in eight residents in the target areas participated in at least one of these activities.' The evaluation found that over 1 in 5 adults in the target areas reported they had cut their weekly food spending in the last six months to pay other household bills such as rent, electricity and gas. During the four years of the DFfA activities, this percentage had not changed significantly. There were mixed changes in the nature of food in local stores. While the overall availability and price of food increased, both ﾓhealthierﾔ food and ﾓunhealthierﾔ food were included in that increase. It was only in the larger ﾓmultiple/discount freezerﾔ type of shops that the overall price of food had decreased.

Health Impact Assessment contributing to Healthy Public Policy

Published by Public Health, April 2009 IPH recently coordinated and was guest editor for a minisymposium on Health Impact Assessment for the journal, Public Health. Three aricles contributed to the minisymposium which included an article from IPH on how HIA can contribute to healthy public policy. An article reviewing the right to the highest attainable standard of health from Paul Hunt and Gillian MacNaughton and a review of the strengths and weakneses of quantitiative methods used in HIA from Emer O'Connell and Fintan Hurley. The minisymposium evolved from the 8th International HIA conference ‘Healthy Public Policy – is Health Impact Assessment the Cornerstone’ hosted by IPH.

Policy Credibility and Delegation to Independent Regulatory Agencies: A Comparative Empirical Analysis

Independent regulatory agencies are one of the main institutional features of the 'rising regulatory state' in Western Europe. Governments are increasingly willing to abandon their regulatory competencies and to delegate them to specialized institutions that are at least partially beyond their control. This article examines the empirical consistency of one particular explanation of this phenomenon, namely the credibility hypothesis, claiming that governments delegate powers so as to enhance the credibility of their policies. Three observable implications are derived from the general hypothesis, linking credibility and delegation to veto players, complexity and interdependence. An independence index is developed to measure agency independence, which is then used in a multivariate analysis where the impact of credibility concerns on delegation is tested. The analysis relies on an original data set comprising independence scores for thirty-three regulators. Results show that the credibility hypothesis can explain a good deal of the variation in delegation. The economic nature of regulation is a strong determinant of agency independence, but is mediated by national institutions in the form of veto players.