Investigating the link between carbon dioxide emissions and transport-related social exclusion in rural Northern Ireland

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered the most harmful of the greenhouse gases. Despite policy efforts, transport is the only sector experiencing an increase in the level of CO2 emissions and thereby possesses a major threat to sustainable development. In contrast, a reduced level of mobility has been associated with an increasing risk of being socially excluded. However, despite being the two key elements in transport policy, little effort has so far been made to investigate the links between CO2 emissions and social exclusion. This research contributes to this gap by analysing data from 157 weekly activity-travel diaries collected in rural Northern Ireland. CO2 emission levels were calculated using average speed models for different modes of transport. Regression analyses were then conducted to identify the socio-spatial patterns associated with these CO2 emissions, mode choice behaviour, and patterns of participation in activities. This research found that despite emitting a higher level of carbon dioxide, groups in rural areas possess the risk of being socially excluded due to their higher levels of mobility.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

An improved computational method in structural dynamics

Purpose – In structural, earthquake and aeronautical engineering and mechanical vibration, the solution of dynamic equations for a structure subjected to dynamic loading leads to a high order system of differential equations. The numerical methods are usually used for integration when either there is dealing with discrete data or there is no analytical solution for the equations. Since the numerical methods with more accuracy and stability give more accurate results in structural responses, there is a need to improve the existing methods or develop new ones. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, a new time integration method is proposed mathematically and numerically, which is accordingly applied to single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) and multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems. Finally, the results are compared to the existing methods such as Newmark’s method and closed form solution. Findings – It is concluded that, in the proposed method, the data variance of each set of structural responses such as displacement, velocity, or acceleration in different time steps is less than those in Newmark’s method, and the proposed method is more accurate and stable than Newmark’s method and is capable of analyzing the structure at fewer numbers of iteration or computation cycles, hence less time-consuming. Originality/value – A new mathematical and numerical time integration method is proposed for the computation of structural responses with higher accuracy and stability, lower data variance, and fewer numbers of iterations for computational cycles.