Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

Detection of HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral treatment and clinical progression in a large European cohort study.

OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

Physiological responses of two tropical weeds to shade: II. Leaf gas exchange and nitrogen content

Ipomoea asarifolia (Desr.) Roem. & Schultz (Convolvulaceae) and Stachytarpheta cayennensis (Rich) Vahl. (Verbenaceae), two weeds found in pastures and crop areas in the Brazilian Amazonia, Brazil, were grown in controlled environment cabinets under high (800-1000 µmol m-² s-¹) and low (200-350 µmol m-² s-¹) light regimes during a 40-day period. The objective was to determine the effect of shade on photosynthetic features and leaf nitrogen content of I. asarifolia and S. cayennensis. High-irradiance grown I. asarifolia leaves had significantly higher dark respiration and light saturated rates of photosynthesis than low-irradiance leaves. No significant differences for these traits, between treatments, were observed in S. cayennensis. Low-irradiance leaves of both species displayed higher CO2 assimilation rates under low irradiance. High-irradiance grown leaves of both species had less nitrogen per unit of weight. Low-irradiance S. cayennensis had more nitrogen per unit of leaf area than high-irradiance plants; however, I. asarifolia showed no consistent pattern for this variable through time. For S. cayennensis, leaf nitrogen content and CO2 assimilation were inversely correlated to the amount of biomass allocated to developing reproductive structures. These results are discussed in relation to their ecological and weed management implications.

Temporal changes in mosquito abundance (Culex pipiens), avian malaria prevalence and lineage composition

Background: Knowledge on the temporal dynamics of host/vector/parasite interactions is a pre-requisite to further address relevant questions in the fields of epidemiology and evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases. In studies of avian malaria, the natural history of Plasmodium parasites with their natural mosquito vectors, however, is mostly unknown. Methods: Using artificial water containers placed in the field, we monitored the relative abundance of parous females of Culex pipiens mosquitoes during two years (2010-2011), in a population in western Switzerland. Additionally, we used molecular tools to examine changes in avian malaria prevalence and Plasmodium lineage composition in female C. pipiens caught throughout one field season (April-August) in 2011. Results: C. pipiens relative abundance varied both between years and months, and was associated with temperature fluctuations. Total Plasmodium prevalence was high and increased from spring to summer months (13.1-20.3%). The Plasmodium community was composed of seven different lineages including P. relictum (SGS1, GRW11 and PADOM02 lineages), P. vaughani (lineage SYAT05) and other Plasmodium spp. (AFTRU5, PADOM1, COLL1). The most prevalent lineages, P. vaughani (lineage SYAT05) and P. relictum (lineage SGS1), were consistently found between years, although they had antagonistic dominance patterns during the season survey. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the time window of analysis is critical in evaluating changes in the community of avian malaria lineages infecting mosquitoes. The potential determinants of the observed changes as well as their implications for future prospects on avian malaria are discussed.

Comparative genomics suggests that the human pathogenic fungus Pneumocystis jirovecii acquired obligate biotrophy through gene loss.

Pneumocystis jirovecii is a fungal parasite that colonizes specifically humans and turns into an opportunistic pathogen in immunodeficient individuals. The fungus is able to reproduce extracellularly in host lungs without eliciting massive cellular death. The molecular mechanisms that govern this process are poorly understood, in part because of the lack of an in vitro culture system for Pneumocystis spp. In this study, we explored the origin and evolution of the putative biotrophy of P. jirovecii through comparative genomics and reconstruction of ancestral gene repertoires. We used the maximum parsimony method and genomes of related fungi of the Taphrinomycotina subphylum. Our results suggest that the last common ancestor of Pneumocystis spp. lost 2,324 genes in relation to the acquisition of obligate biotrophy. These losses may result from neutral drift and affect the biosyntheses of amino acids and thiamine, the assimilation of inorganic nitrogen and sulfur, and the catabolism of purines. In addition, P. jirovecii shows a reduced panel of lytic proteases and has lost the RNA interference machinery, which might contribute to its genome plasticity. Together with other characteristics, that is, a sex life cycle within the host, the absence of massive destruction of host cells, difficult culturing, and the lack of virulence factors, these gene losses constitute a unique combination of characteristics which are hallmarks of both obligate biotrophs and animal parasites. These findings suggest that Pneumocystis spp. should be considered as the first described obligate biotrophs of animals, whose evolution has been marked by gene losses.

Neurologie [Therapeutic advances in neurology].

The neurology field has been greatly improved in 2008. The therapeutic window of intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischemic stoke is extended to 4 h 30. New studies show that the clinical progression of Parkinson's disease might be slowed by some medication. Deep brain stimulation may be beneficial early in the course of the disease. Tysabri and Fingolimod in multiple sclerosis are discussed. The pharmacopoeia for epilepsy is in constant development with new products recently released in Switzerland. CGRP receptor antagonists are about to be launched as a promising acute migraine treatment. The pharmacological approach in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients might be improved according to research results.

Nitrogen translocation in wheat inoculated with Azospirillum and fertilized with nitrogen

The productivity and the translocation of assimilates and nitrogen (N) were compared after inoculation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. BR-23) seeds with two strains of Azospirillum brasilense (strains 245 and JA 04) under field conditions. The inoculation of wheat seeds was done with a peat inoculant at sowing time. Plant material for evaluations were collected at anthesis and maturity. No differences in grain yield and in the translocation of assimilates resulting from inoculation were detected. Differences were observed in relation to N rates (0, 15, and 60 kg ha-1). N content in the grain increased significantly in the bacteria-inoculated treatments in which N was not added. This increase in N content in the grain with inoculation was probably due to higher N uptake after anthesis without any significant contribution on the grain yield. Such increment was of 8.4 kg ha-1 of N representing 66% more N than in no inoculated treatment. Regardless of the inoculation and the rate of N applied, it was observed that about 70% of the N accumulated at anthesis was translocated from vegetative parts to the grain.

Immune response to HIV.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Major advances have been made in the delineation of HIV-specific immune response and in the mechanisms of virus escape. The kinetics of the immunological and virological events occurring during primary HIV infection indicate that the establishment of the latent HIV reservoir, the major obstacle to HIV eradication likely occurs during the very early stages of primary infection, that is, the 'eclipse phase', prior to the development of the HIV-specific immune response which has limited efficacy in the control of the early events of infection. Therefore, the window of opportunity to develop effective interventions either to clear HIV during primary infection or to prevent rebound of HIV in patients successfully treated who stop antiretroviral therapy is very narrow. RECENT FINDINGS: Genetic factors most strongly associated with nonprogressive infection are human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I alleles and particularly HLA-B5701. CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses with polyfunctional profile are associated with nonprogressive infection. Broader neutralizing antibodies are detected 3-4 years after infection, generated only in 20% of individuals but show no efficacy in the control of HIV replication. SUMMARY: In the present review, we shall discuss the different components of the HIV-specific immune response elicited by the infection, the kinetics of these responses during primary infection and the changes following transition to the chronic phase of infection, and the functional profile of 'effective' versus 'noneffective' HIV-specific immune responses.

Comparison of fat suppression strategies in 3D spiral coronary magnetic resonance angiography.

PURPOSE: In the present study, the impact of the two different fat suppression techniques was investigated for free breathing 3D spiral coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). As the coronary arteries are embedded in epicardial fat and are adjacent to myocardial tissue, magnetization preparation such as T(2)-preparation and fat suppression is essential for coronary discrimination. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fat-signal suppression in three-dimensional (3D) thin- slab coronary MRA based on a spiral k-space data acquisition can either be achieved by signal pre-saturation using a spectrally selective inversion recovery pre-pulse or by spectral-spatial excitation. In the present study, the performance of the two different approaches was studied in healthy subjects. RESULTS: No significant objective or subjective difference was found between the two fat suppression approaches. CONCLUSION: Spectral pre-saturation seems preferred for coronary MRA applications due to the ease of implementation and the shorter cardiac acquisition window.

Continuous determination of optimal cerebral perfusion pressure in traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVES: We have sought to develop an automated methodology for the continuous updating of optimal cerebral perfusion pressure (CPPopt) for patients after severe traumatic head injury, using continuous monitoring of cerebrovascular pressure reactivity. We then validated the CPPopt algorithm by determining the association between outcome and the deviation of actual CPP from CPPopt. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTING: Neurosciences critical care unit of a university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 327 traumatic head-injury patients admitted between 2003 and 2009 with continuous monitoring of arterial blood pressure and intracranial pressure. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Arterial blood pressure, intracranial pressure, and CPP were continuously recorded, and pressure reactivity index was calculated online. Outcome was assessed at 6 months. An automated curve fitting method was applied to determine CPP at the minimum value for pressure reactivity index (CPPopt). A time trend of CPPopt was created using a moving 4-hr window, updated every minute. Identification of CPPopt was, on average, feasible during 55% of the whole recording period. Patient outcome correlated with the continuously updated difference between median CPP and CPPopt (chi-square=45, p<.001; outcome dichotomized into fatal and nonfatal). Mortality was associated with relative "hypoperfusion" (CPP<CPPopt), severe disability with "hyperperfusion" (CPP>CPPopt), and favorable outcome was associated with smaller deviations of CPP from the individualized CPPopt. While deviations from global target CPP values of 60 mm Hg and 70 mm Hg were also related to outcome, these relationships were less robust. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time CPPopt could be identified during the recording time of majority of the patients. Patients with a median CPP close to CPPopt were more likely to have a favorable outcome than those in whom median CPP was widely different from CPPopt. Deviations from individualized CPPopt were more predictive of outcome than deviations from a common target CPP. CPP management to optimize cerebrovascular pressure reactivity should be the subject of future clinical trial in severe traumatic head-injury patients.

Non-viral gene therapy for GDNF production in RCS rat: the crucial role of the plasmid dose.

Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) is one of the candidate molecules among neurotrophic factors proposed for a potential treatment of retinitis pigmentosa (RP). It must be administered repeatedly or through sustained releasing systems to exert prolonged neuroprotective effects. In the dystrophic Royal College of Surgeon's (RCS) rat model of RP, we found that endogenous GDNF levels dropped during retinal degeneration time course, opening a therapeutic window for GDNF supplementation. We showed that after a single electrotransfer of 30 μg of GDNF-encoding plasmid in the rat ciliary muscle, GDNF was produced for at least 7 months. Morphometric, electroretinographic and optokinetic analyses highlighted that this continuous release of GDNF delayed photoreceptors (PRs) as well as retinal functions loss until at least 70 days of age in RCS rats. Unexpectedly, increasing the GDNF secretion level accelerated PR degeneration and the loss of electrophysiological responses. This is the first report: (i) demonstrating the efficacy of GDNF delivery through non-viral gene therapy in RP; (ii) establishing the efficacy of intravitreal administration of GDNF in RP associated with a mutation in the retinal pigment epithelium; and (iii) warning against potential toxic effects of GDNF within the eye/retina.

Infrared thermometry to schedule irrigation of common bean

The objective of this work was to determine the critical irrigation time for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L. cv. Carioca) using infrared thermometry. Five treatments were analyzed. Canopy temperature differences between plants and a well-watered control about 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5±0.5ºC were tested. Physiological variables and plant growth were analyzed to establish the best time to irrigate. There was a significant linear correlation between the index and stomatal resistance, transpiration rate, and leaf water potential. Although significant linear correlation between the index and mean values of total dry matter, absolute growth rate, and leaf area index was found, no correlation was found with other growth index like relative growth rate, net assimilation rate, and leaf area ratio. Plants irrigated when their canopy temperature was 3±0.5ºC above the control had their relative growth rate mean value increased up to 59.7%, yielding 2,260.2 kg ha-1, with a reduction of 38.0% in the amount of water used. Plants irrigated when their canopy temperature was 4±0.5ºC yielded 1,907.6 kg ha-1, although their relative growth rate mean value was 4.0% below the control. These results show that the best moment to irrigate common bean is when their canopy temperature is between 3ºC and 4±0.5ºC above the control.

Kernel-based Mapping of Meteorological Fields in Complex Orography

Due to the advances in sensor networks and remote sensing technologies, the acquisition and storage rates of meteorological and climatological data increases every day and ask for novel and efficient processing algorithms. A fundamental problem of data analysis and modeling is the spatial prediction of meteorological variables in complex orography, which serves among others to extended climatological analyses, for the assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, for preparing inputs to hydrological models and for real time monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather.In this thesis, a new framework for spatial estimation is proposed by taking advantage of a class of algorithms emerging from the statistical learning theory. Nonparametric kernel-based methods for nonlinear data classification, regression and target detection, known as support vector machines (SVM), are adapted for mapping of meteorological variables in complex orography.With the advent of high resolution digital elevation models, the field of spatial prediction met new horizons. In fact, by exploiting image processing tools along with physical heuristics, an incredible number of terrain features which account for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales can be extracted. Such features are highly relevant for the mapping of meteorological variables because they control a considerable part of the spatial variability of meteorological fields in the complex Alpine orography. For instance, patterns of orographic rainfall, wind speed and cold air pools are known to be correlated with particular terrain forms, e.g. convex/concave surfaces and upwind sides of mountain slopes.Kernel-based methods are employed to learn the nonlinear statistical dependence which links the multidimensional space of geographical and topographic explanatory variables to the variable of interest, that is the wind speed as measured at the weather stations or the occurrence of orographic rainfall patterns as extracted from sequences of radar images. Compared to low dimensional models integrating only the geographical coordinates, the proposed framework opens a way to regionalize meteorological variables which are multidimensional in nature and rarely show spatial auto-correlation in the original space making the use of classical geostatistics tangled.The challenges which are explored during the thesis are manifolds. First, the complexity of models is optimized to impose appropriate smoothness properties and reduce the impact of noisy measurements. Secondly, a multiple kernel extension of SVM is considered to select the multiscale features which explain most of the spatial variability of wind speed. Then, SVM target detection methods are implemented to describe the orographic conditions which cause persistent and stationary rainfall patterns. Finally, the optimal splitting of the data is studied to estimate realistic performances and confidence intervals characterizing the uncertainty of predictions.The resulting maps of average wind speeds find applications within renewable resources assessment and opens a route to decrease the temporal scale of analysis to meet hydrological requirements. Furthermore, the maps depicting the susceptibility to orographic rainfall enhancement can be used to improve current radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting systems and to generate stochastic ensembles of precipitation fields conditioned upon the orography.

Environmental effects on photosynthetic capacity of bean genotypes

Photosynthetic responses to daily environmental changes were studied in bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) genotypes 'Carioca', 'Ouro Negro', and Guarumbé. Light response curves of CO2 assimilation and stomatal conductance (g s) were also evaluated under controlled (optimum) environmental condition. Under this condition, CO2 assimilation of 'Carioca' was not saturated at 2,000 µmol m-2 s-1, whereas Guarumbé and 'Ouro Negro' exhibited different levels of light saturation. All genotypes showed dynamic photoinhibition and reversible increase in the minimum chlorophyll fluorescence yield under natural condition, as well as lower photosynthetic capacity when compared with optimum environmental condition. Since differences in g s were not observed between natural and controlled conditions for Guarumbé and 'Ouro Negro', the lower photosynthetic capacity of these genotypes under natural condition seems to be caused by high temperature effects on biochemical reactions, as suggested by increased alternative electron sinks. The highest g s values of 'Carioca' were observed at controlled condition, providing evidences that reduction of photosynthetic capacity at natural condition was due to low g s in addition to the high temperature effects on the photosynthetic apparatus. 'Carioca' exhibited the highest photosynthetic rates under optimum environmental condition, and was more affected by daily changes of air temperature and leaf-to-air vapor pressure difference.

Photodynamic therapy for enhanced drug delivery to tumor

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) has been used as an adjunct to cytoreductive surgery in patients with malignant pleura mesothelioma (MPM). However, it was associated with substantial side effects and found to be only of modest clinical benefit. In contrast, Visudyne®-mediated low-dose PDT has been shown to selectively increase the concentration of macromolecular cytostatic compounds in various tumors grown subpleurally on rodent lungs. Consequently, it was thought that PDT-assisted enhanced tumor penetration for cytostatic agents might be better suited to achieve additional tumor control after cytoreductive surgery for mesothelioma. This effect seems to be mainly related to PDT-mediated modulations of tumor vessels which improve the distribution of circulating, systemically administered chemotherapeutic macromolecular agents. However, the mechanisms involved and the optimization of this effect for therapeutic implications remain to be solved. By using the dorsal skin fold chamber method we demonstrated that both angiogenesis and microcirculation of human mesothelioma xenografts can be continuously assessed in vivo by intravital microscopy. We described a new, simple, reproducible and reliable scoring system for the assessment of tumor angiogenesis and microcirculation in this model, thereby allowing the quantitative description of the neo-vascular network development while avoiding a complicated technical setup. This method can serve as a useful tool for the assessment of novel vessel-targeted therapies against MPM. We then applied this newly established model so as to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of PDT-induced extravasation of macromolecular compounds across the endothelial barrier in tumors and surrounding normal tissue. We found that low-dose PDT selectively enhanced the uptake of macromolecular compounds in human mesothelioma xenografts compared to surrounding normal tissue. Interestingly, this increase of effective permeability of tumor vasculature was not related to the inflammatory stimuli generated by PDT such as the mobilization of leucocytes and their adhesion and penetration of the injured vessel wall. We then used the model for optimizing the drug-light conditions of low- dose PDT in order to obtain maximal leakage of the macromolecular compounds in the tumor with minimal uptake in normal surrounding tissue and we were able to identify such a therapeutic window. With these optimized PDT treatment conditions, we assessed the therapeutic effect of this new treatment concept in vivo by measuring tumor growth rates on subcutaneously grown mesothelioma xenografts in nude mice after low-dose PDT of the tumors following systemically administered liposomal (macromolecular) cisplatin, a cytostatic compound commonly used in clinical practice. We were able to demonstrate that low-dose PDT with optimized drug-light conditions combined with systemic chemotherapy indeed resulted in a reduction in tumor growth compared to chemotherapy or PDT alone. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that low-dose PDT may selectively enhance the uptake of macromolecular cytostatic drugs in superficially growing tumors such as mesotheliomas and opens new perspectives for the treatment of these diseases. - Les effets cytotoxiques de la thérapie photodynamique (PDT) sur le mésothéliome pleural malin (MPM) n'ont pas apporté de bénéfice clinique significatif. Toutefois, une application innovante non cytotoxique de la PDT serait la bienvenue en supplément des chimiothérapies pour améliorer le contrôle local de la tumeur. Le prétraitement des néovaisseaux tumoraux par une PDT à bas régime, qui améliorerait la distribution d'une chimiothérapie administrée par voie systémique de façon concomitante, a attiré une attention particulière pour de futures applications cliniques. Toutefois, les mécanismes impliqués dans cet événement et les implications thérapeutiques de ces changements physiopathologiques restent non résolus. Dans cette thèse, nous avons observé en premier que l'angiogenèse et la microcirculation dans les xénogreffes de mésothéliomes humains peuvent être observées et analysées in vivo par microscopie intravitale. Le nouveau système de score appliqué pour l'évaluation de l'angiogenèse et de la microcirculation tumorale dans cette étude est une méthode simple, reproductible et fiable servant à décrire de manière quantitative le réseau néo-vasculaire en développement, tout en évitant d'utiliser une installation technique compliquée. Ce modèle sert de nouvel outil pour l'évaluation des thérapies anti-vasculaires dirigées contre le MPM. Le modèle animal nouvellement établi a alors été utilisé pour élucider les mécanismes sous-jacents de Γ extravasation d'agents macromoléculaires induite par PDT dans les vaisseaux tumoraux et normaux. Nous avons trouvé que la PDT à fable dose améliore la distribution ciblée de drogues macromoléculaires dans des greffes de mésothéliome humain, de manière sélective pour la tumeur. La perméabilité vasculaire tumorale n'est pas influencée par les stimuli inflammatoires générés par la PDT, ce qui joue un rôle important dans la sélectivité de notre photodynamic drug delivery. Ensuite, nous avons recherché la fenêtre thérapeutique optimale de la PDT pour obtenir une accumulation sélective du colorant macromoléculaire dans le tissu tumoral ainsi qu'une efficacité de la PDT combinée avec une chimiothérapie macromoléculaire sur la croissance tumorale. Nous avons démontré que la PDT à faible dose combinée avec une administration systémique de cisplatine liposomale mène à un ralentissement de la croissance tumorale dans notre modèle de mésothéliome malin humain. En conclusion, l'utilisation de la PDT comme prétraitement pour améliorer sélectivement la distribution d'agents thérapeutiques dans des tumeurs poussant superficiellement est prometteuse. Cette observation fourni une preuve du concept remarquable et garanti la suite des investigations, éventuellement ayant pour but de développer de nouveaux concepts de thérapie pour les patients atteints de mésothéliome. Une PDT intra cavitaire à faible dose après pleuro- pneumonectomie pourrait améliorer la pénétration des agents cytostatiques administrés de façon concomitante par voie systémique dans les îlots tumoraux résiduels, et ainsi améliorer le contrôle local.