Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

Operational forecasting centres are currently developing data assimilation systems for coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Strongly coupled assimilation, in which a single assimilation system is applied to a coupled model, presents significant technical and scientific challenges. Hence weakly coupled assimilation systems are being developed as a first step, in which the coupled model is used to compare the current state estimate with observations, but corrections to the atmosphere and ocean initial conditions are then calculated independently. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the different coupled assimilation methodologies in the context of four dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) and use an idealised framework to assess the expected benefits of moving towards coupled data assimilation. We implement an incremental 4D-Var system within an idealised single column atmosphere-ocean model. The system has the capability to run both strongly and weakly coupled assimilations as well as uncoupled atmosphere or ocean only assimilations, thus allowing a systematic comparison of the different strategies for treating the coupled data assimilation problem. We present results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate the behaviour and sensitivities of the different approaches. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential benefits that may be expected from coupled data assimilation. When compared to uncoupled initialisation, coupled assimilation is able to produce more balanced initial analysis fields, thus reducing initialisation shock and its impact on the subsequent forecast. Single observation experiments demonstrate how coupled assimilation systems are able to pass information between the atmosphere and ocean and therefore use near-surface data to greater effect. We show that much of this benefit may also be gained from a weakly coupled assimilation system, but that this can be sensitive to the parameters used in the assimilation.

Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts

Current methods for initialising coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts often rely on the use of separate atmosphere and ocean analyses, the combination of which can leave the coupled system imbalanced at the beginning of the forecast, potentially accelerating the development of errors. Using a series of experiments with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled system, the magnitude and extent of these so-called initialisation shocks is quantified, and their impact on forecast skill measured. It is found that forecasts initialised by separate ocean and atmospheric analyses do exhibit initialisation shocks in lower atmospheric temperature, when compared to forecasts initialised using a coupled data assimilation method. These shocks result in as much as a doubling of root-mean-square error on the first day of the forecast in some regions, and in increases that are sustained for the duration of the 10-day forecasts performed here. However, the impacts of this choice of initialisation on forecast skill, assessed using independent datasets, were found to be negligible, at least over the limited period studied. Larger initialisation shocks are found to follow a change in either the atmospheric or ocean model component between the analysis and forecast phases: changes in the ocean component can lead to sea surface temperature shocks of more than 0.5K in some equatorial regions during the first day of the forecast. Implications for the development of coupled forecast systems, particularly with respect to coupled data assimilation methods, are discussed.

A mechanism of internal decadal atlantic ocean variability in a high-resolution coupled climate model

The North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre (NA SPG) is an important region for initialising decadal climate forecasts. Climate model simulations and palaeo climate reconstructions have indicated that this region could also exhibit large, internally generated variability on decadal timescales. Understanding these modes of variability, their consistency across models, and the conditions in which they exist, is clearly important for improving the skill of decadal predictions — particularly when these predictions are made with the same underlying climate models. Here we describe and analyse a mode of internal variability in the NA SPG in a state-of-the-art, high resolution, coupled climate model. This mode has a period of 17 years and explains 15–30% of the annual variance in related ocean indices. It arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies around the NA SPG. Anomalous circulation drives the variability in the southern half of the NA SPG, whilst mean circulation and anomalous temperatures are important in the northern half. A negative feedback between Labrador Sea temperatures/densities and those in the North Atlantic Current is identified, which allows for the phase reversal. The atmosphere is found to act as a positive feedback on to this mode via the North Atlantic Oscillation which itself exhibits a spectral peak at 17 years. Decadal ocean density changes associated with this mode are driven by variations in temperature, rather than salinity — a point which models often disagree on and which we suggest may affect the veracity of the underlying assumptions of anomaly-assimilating decadal prediction methodologies.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

Investigation of high-efficiency Wireless Power Transfer criteria of resonantly-coupled loops and dipoles through analysis of the figure of merit

The efficiency of a Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) system is greatly dependent on both the geometry and operating frequency of the transmitting and receiving structures. By using Coupled Mode Theory (CMT), the figure of merit is calculated for resonantly-coupled loop and dipole systems. An in-depth analysis of the figure of merit is performed with respect to the key geometric parameters of the loops and dipoles, along with the resonant frequency, in order to identify the key relationships leading to high-efficiency WPT. For systems consisting of two identical single-turn loops, it is shown that the choice of both the loop radius and resonant frequency are essential in achieving high-efficiency WPT. For the dipole geometries studied, it is shown that the choice of length is largely irrelevant and that as a result of their capacitive nature, low-MHz frequency dipoles are able to produce significantly higher figures of merit than those of the loops considered. The results of the figure of merit analysis are used to propose and subsequently compare two mid-range loop and dipole WPT systems of equal size and operating frequency, where it is shown that the dipole system is able to achieve higher efficiencies than the loop system of the distance range examined.

Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite.

Regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. Description and validation

The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller-scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean-regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present-day climate. A global ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e., ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology, and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale.

Regulation of the ERK subgroup of MAP kinase cascades through G protein-coupled receptors.

The extracellularly-responsive kinase (ERK) subfamily of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) has been implicated in the regulation of cell growth and differentiation. Activation of ERKs involves a two-step protein kinase cascade lying upstream from ERK, in which the Raf family are the MAPK kinase kinases and the MEK1/MEK2 isoforms are the MAPK kinases. The linear sequence of Raf --> MEK --> ERK constitutes the ERK cascade. Although the ERK cascade is activated through growth factor-regulated receptor protein tyrosine kinases, they are also modulated through G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs). All four G protein subfamilies (Gq/11 Gi/o, Gs and G12/13) influence the activation state of ERKs. In this review, we describe the ERK cascade and characteristics of its activation through GPCRs. We also discuss the identity of the intervening steps that may couple agonist binding at GPCRs to activation of the ERK cascade.

Stimulation of the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway in neonatal rat ventricular myocytes by the G protein-coupled receptor agonists, endothelin-1 and phenylephrine: a role in cardiac myocyte hypertrophy?

We examined the activation of the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p38-MAPK) pathway by the G protein-coupled receptor agonists, endothelin-1 and phenylephrine in primary cultures of cardiac myocytes from neonatal rat hearts. Both agonists increased the phosphorylation (activation) of p38-MAPK by approximately 12-fold. A p38-MAPK substrate, MAPK-activated protein kinase 2 (MAPKAPK2), was activated approximately fourfold and 10 microM SB203580, a p38-MAPK inhibitor, abolished this activation. Phosphorylation of the MAPKAPK2 substrate, heat shock protein 25/27, was also increased. Using selective inhibitors, activation of the p38-MAPK pathway by endothelin-1 was shown to involve protein kinase C but not Gi/Go nor the extracellularly responsive kinase (ERK) pathway. SB203580 failed to inhibit the morphological changes associated with cardiac myocyte hypertrophy induced by endothelin-1 or phenylephrine between 4 and 24 h. However, it decreased the myofibrillar organization and cell profile at 48 h. In contrast, inhibition of the ERK cascade with PD98059 prevented the increase in myofibrillar organization but not cell profile. These data are not consistent with a role for the p38-MAPK pathway in the immediate induction of the morphological changes of hypertrophy but suggest that it may be necessary over a longer period to maintain the response.

Activation of mitogen-activated protein kinases (p38-MAPKs, SAPKs/JNKs and ERKs) by the G-protein-coupled receptor agonist phenylephrine in the perfused rat heart.

We investigated the ability of phenylephrine (PE), an alpha-adrenergic agonist and promoter of hypertrophic growth in the ventricular myocyte, to activate the three best-characterized mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) subfamilies, namely p38-MAPKs, SAPKs/JNKs (i.e. stress-activated protein kinases/c-Jun N-terminal kinases) and ERKs (extracellularly responsive kinases), in perfused contracting rat hearts. Perfusion of hearts with 100 microM PE caused a rapid (maximal at 10 min) 12-fold activation of two p38-MAPK isoforms, as measured by subsequent phosphorylation of a p38-MAPK substrate, recombinant MAPK-activated protein kinase 2 (MAPKAPK2). This activation coincided with phosphorylation of p38-MAPK. Endogenous MAPKAPK2 was activated 4-5-fold in these perfusions and this was inhibited completely by the p38-MAPK inhibitor, SB203580 (10 microM). Activation of p38-MAPK and MAPKAPK2 was also detected in non-contracting hearts perfused with PE, indicating that the effects were not dependent on the positive inotropic/chronotropic properties of the agonist. Although SAPKs/JNKs were also rapidly activated, the activation (2-3-fold) was less than that of p38-MAPK. The ERKs were activated by perfusion with PE and the activation was at least 50% of that seen with 1 microM PMA, the most powerful activator of the ERKs yet identified in cardiac myocytes. These results indicate that, in addition to the ERKs, two MAPK subfamilies, whose activation is more usually associated with cellular stresses, are activated by the Gq/11-protein-coupled receptor (Gq/11PCR) agonist, PE, in whole hearts. These data indicate that Gq/11PCR agonists activate multiple MAPK signalling pathways in the heart, all of which may contribute to the overall response (e.g. the development of the hypertrophic phenotype).

Regulation of Ras.GTP loading and Ras-Raf association in neonatal rat ventricular myocytes by G protein-coupled receptor agonists and phorbol ester. Activation of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase cascade by phorbol ester is mediated by Ras.

The small G protein Ras has been implicated in hypertrophy of cardiac myocytes. We therefore examined the activation (GTP loading) of Ras by the following hypertrophic agonists: phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA), endothelin-1 (ET-1), and phenylephrine (PE). All three increased Ras.GTP loading by 10-15-fold (maximal in 1-2 min), as did bradykinin. Other G protein-coupled receptor agonists (e.g. angiotensin II, carbachol, isoproterenol) were less effective. Activation of Ras by PMA, ET-1, or PE was reduced by inhibition of protein kinase C (PKC), and that induced by ET-1 or PE was partly sensitive to pertussis toxin. 8-(4-Chlorophenylthio)-cAMP (CPT-cAMP) did not inhibit Ras.GTP loading by PMA, ET-1, or PE. The association of Ras with c-Raf protein was increased by PMA, ET-1, or PE, and this was inhibited by CPT-cAMP. However, only PMA and ET-1 increased Ras-associated mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 1-activating activity, and this was decreased by PKC inhibition, pertussis toxin, and CPT-cAMP. PMA caused the rapid appearance of phosphorylated (activated) extracellular signal-regulated kinase in the nucleus, which was inhibited by a microinjected neutralizing anti-Ras antibody. We conclude that PKC- and Gi-dependent mechanisms mediate the activation of Ras in myocytes and that Ras activation is required for stimulation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase by PMA.

Activation of protein kinase cascades in the heart by hypertrophic G protein-coupled receptor agonists.

Cardiac myocyte hypertrophy involves changes in cell structure and alterations in protein expression regulated at both the transcriptional and translational levels. Hypertrophic G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) agonists such as endothelin-(ET-1) and phenylephrine stimulate a number of protein kinase cascades in the heart. Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascades stimulated include the extracellularly regulated kinase cascade, the stress-activated protein kinase/c-Jun N-terminal kinase cascade, and the p38 MAPK cascade. All 3 pathways have been implicated in hypertrophy, but recent ex vivo evidence also suggests that there may be additional effects on cell survival. ET-1 and phenylephrine also stimulate the protein kinase B pathway, and this may be involved in the regulation of protein synthesis by these agonists. Thus, protein kinase-mediated signaling may be important in the regulation of the development of myocyte hypertrophy.

Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation

The atmospheric response to an idealized decline in Arctic sea ice is investigated in a novel fully coupled climate model experiment. In this experiment two ensembles of single-year model integrations are performed starting on 1 April, the approximate start of the ice melt season. By perturbing the initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT), declines in both sea ice concentration and SIT, which result in sea ice distributions that are similar to the recent sea ice minima of 2007 and 2012, are induced. In the ice loss regions there are strong (~3 K) local increases in sea surface temperature (SST); additionally, there are remote increases in SST in the central North Pacific and subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic. Over the central Arctic there are increases in surface air temperature (SAT) of ~8 K due to increases in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. There are increases in SAT over continental North America that are in good agreement with recent changes as seen by reanalysis data. It is estimated that up to two-thirds of the observed increase in SAT in this region could be related to Arctic sea ice loss. In early summer there is a significant but weak atmospheric circulation response that projects onto the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In early summer and early autumn there is an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet over the North Atlantic as a result of a reduction in the meridional temperature gradients. In winter there is no projection onto a particular phase of the NAO.