Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping) to building adaptive capacity, implementing actions and creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These actions within government stimulate a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (or in the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The water supply and flood defence sectors, requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure such as reservoirs and coastal defences, have invested more heavily in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Economic sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that while the government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost, it may also have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades (1960–2000) and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions.

Observed adaptation to climate change as initiated transition

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

Complex dynamics in simple systems with periodic parameter oscillations

We study systems with periodically oscillating parameters that can give way to complex periodic or nonperiodic orbits. Performing the long time limit, we can define ergodic averages such as Lyapunov exponents, where a negative maximal Lyapunov exponent corresponds to a stable periodic orbit. By this, extremely complicated periodic orbits composed of contracting and expanding phases appear in a natural way. Employing the technique of ϵ-uncertain points, we find that values of the control parameters supporting such periodic motion are densely embedded in a set of values for which the motion is chaotic. When a tiny amount of noise is coupled to the system, dynamics with positive and with negative nontrivial Lyapunov exponents are indistinguishable. We discuss two physical systems, an oscillatory flow inside a duct and a dripping faucet with variable water supply, where such a mechanism seems to be responsible for a complicated alternation of laminar and turbulent phases.

The impracticality of a universal drought definition

This paper demonstrates the impracticality of a comprehensive mathematical definition of the term `drought' which formalises the general qualitative definition that drought is `a deficit of water relative to normal conditions'. Starting from the local water balance, it is shown that a universal description of drought requires reference to water supply, demand and management. The influence of human intervention through water management is shown to be intrinsic to the definition of drought in the universal sense and can only be eliminated in the case of purely meteorological drought. The state of `drought' is shown to be predicated on the existence of climatological norms for a multitude of process specific terms. In general these norms are either difficult to obtain or even non-existent in the non-stationary context of climate change. Such climatological considerations, in conjunction with the difficulty of quantifying human influence, lead to the conclusion that we cannot reasonably expect the existence of any workable generalised objective definition of drought.

An evaluation of the theoretical potential and practical opportunity for using greywater for domestic purposes in Ghana

Assessments concerning the effects of climate change, water resource availability and water deprivation in West Africa have not frequently considered the positive contribution to be derived from collecting and reusing water for domestic purposes. Where the originating water is taken from a clean water source and has been used the first time for washing or bathing, this water is commonly called “greywater”. Greywater is a prolific resource that is generated wherever people live. Treated greywater can be used for domestic cleaning, for flushing toilets where appropriate, for washing cars, sometimes for watering kitchen gardens, and for clothes washing prior to rinsing. Therefore, a large theoretical potential exists to increase total water resource availability if greywater were to be widely reused. Locally treated greywater reduces the distribution network requirement, lower construction effort and cost and, wherever possible, minimising the associated carbon footprint. Such locally treated greywater offers significant practical opportunities for increasing the total available water resources at a local level. The reuse of treated greywater is one important action that will help to mitigate the reducing availability of clean water supplies in some areas, and the expected mitigation required in future aligns well with WHO/UNICEF (2012) aspirations. The evaluation of potential opportunities for prioritising greywater systems to support water reuse takes into account the availability of water resources, water use indicators and published estimates in order to understand typical patterns of water demand. The approach supports knowledge acquisition regarding local conditions for enabling capacity building for greywater reuse, the understanding of systems that are most likely to encourage greywater reuse, and practices and future actions to stimulate greywater infrastructure planning, design and implementation. Although reuse might be considered to increase the uncertainty of achieving a specified quality of the water supply, robust methods and technologies are available for local treatment. Resource strategies for greywater reuse have the potential to consistently improve water efficiency and availability in water impoverished and water stressed regions of Ghana and West Africa. Untreated greywater is referred to as “greywater”; treated greywater is referred to as “treated greywater” in this paper.

Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

Study of metals transfer from environment using teeth as biomonitor

We investigated chronic incorporation of metals in individuals from poor families, living in a small, restrict and allegedly contaminated area in Sao Paulo city, the surroundings of the Guarapiranga dam, responsible for water supply to 25% of the city population. A total of 59 teeth from individuals 7 to 60 years old were collected. The average concentrations of Pb, Cd, Fe, Zn, Mn, Ni and Cr were determined with an Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. The concentrations of all metals as function of the individuals` age exhibited a remarkable similarity: peaks between 7 and 10 years and sharply decreasing at higher ages, which could be attributed to alimentary habits and persistence to metals exposure all along the individuals` life span. From all the measured metals, lead and cadmium were a matter of much more concern since their measured values are close to the upper limits of the world wide averages. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of environmental burden of lead in children using teeth as bioindicator

The south region of Sao Paulo city hosts the Guarapiranga dam, responsible for water supply to 25% of the city population. Their surroundings have been subject to intense and irregular occupation by people from very low socioeconomics classes. Measurements undertaken on sediment and particulate materials in the dam revealed concentrations of lead. copper, zinc and cadmium above internationally accepted limits. Epidemiological and toxicological studies undertaken by the World Health Organization in individuals exhibiting lead concentrations in blood, near or below the maximum recommended (10 mu g dl(-1)), surprisingly revealed that toxic effects are more intense in individuals belonging to low socioeconomics classes. Motivated by these facts, we aimed at the investigation of chronic incorporation of lead. as well as the use of our BIOKINETICS code, which is based on an accepted ICRP biokinetics model for lead, in order to extrapolate the results from teeth to other organs. The focus of our data taking was children from poor families, living in a small, restrict and allegedly contaminated area in Sao Paulo city. Thus, a total of 74 human teeth were collected. The average concentration of lead in teeth of children 5 to 10 years old was determined by means of a high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). For standardization of the measurements, an animal bone certified material (H-Animal Bone), from the International Atomic Energy Agency, was analyzed. The amount of lead in children living in the surroundings of the dam, was approximately 40% higher than those from the control region, and the average lead concentration was equal to 1.3 mu g g(-1) approximately. Grouping the results in terms of gender, tooth type and condition, it was concluded that a carious molar of boys is a much more efficient contamination pathway for lead, resulting in concentrations 70% higher than in the control region. We also inferred the average concentrations of lead in other organs of these children, by making use of our BIOKINETIC code. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrocombustion of humic acid and removal of algae from aqueous solutions

This paper reports experiments involving the electrochemical combustion of humic acid (HA) and removal of algae from pond water. An electrochemical flow reactor with a boron-doped diamond film anode was used and constant current experiments were conducted in batch recirculation mode. The mass transfer characteristics of the electrochemical device were determined by voltammetric experiments in the potential region of water stability, followed by a controlled current experiment in the potential region of oxygen evolution. The average mass transfer coefficient was 5.2 x 10(-5) m s(-1). The pond water was then processed to remove HA and algae in the conditions in which the reaction combustion occurred under mass transfer control. To this end, the mass transfer coefficient was used to estimate the initial limiting current density applied in the electrolytic experiments. As expected, all the parameters analyzed here-solution absorbance at 270 nm, total phenol concentration and total organic carbon concentration-decayed according to first-order kinetics. Since the diamond film anode successfully incinerated organic matter, the electrochemical system proved to be predictable and programmable.

Australia's residential building faults : a view from the state of Victoria

Presented is an examination of residential building faults in the Australian Slate of Victoria. The aim is to determine the interconnections between identified main house faults., with a view to establishing their cause· effect relationships. A total of 42753 residential houses in Victoria were examined for nine key faults fully documented in Archicentre's database. These faults are: rising damp. framing fault, illegal building, stump fault, timber rot, cracking, electrical fault, roof fault and water supply issue. Second to framing fault, roof fault was found to be closely associated with other house faults examined. Hence, this paper concludes that a properly framed and roofed house could limit most of these faults. As illegal building was observed to have only a little overall association with other house faults, this study has implications for the Australia Productivity Commission's on-going efforts to deregulate various aspects of the building and construction industry professions.

Conflict resolution and policy making mediation in the Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River serves China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam covering an area of approximately 795, 000 square kilometres and the Mekong River basin is a delicate eco-system rich in natural resources and bio-diversity. Competing demands for increasingly scarce supplies of water, the reciprocal impacts of land and water uses and inadequate governance arrangements have given rise to conflicts that has to be resolved by policy making to facilitate a process, whereby the main principles adopted in the Mekong River Agreement can be implemented.

Applying outcomes of lifelong learning to organisational achievement

The focus of this doctoral research study is making the most what a person knows and can do, as an outcome from their lifelong learning, so as to better contribute to organisational achievement. This has been motivated by a perceived gap in the extensive literature linking knowledge with organisational achievement. Whereas there is a rich body of literature addressing the meta-philosophies giving rise to the emergence of learning organisations there is, as yet, scant attention paid to the detail of planning and implementing action which would reveal individual/organisational opportunities of mutual advantage and motivate, and sustain, participation at the day-to-day level of the individual. It is in this space that this dissertation seeks to contribute by offering a mechanism for bringing the, hindsight informed, response “but that’s obvious” into the abiding explicit realm at the level of the individual. In moving beyond the obvious which is prone to be overlooked, the emphasis on “better” in the introductory sentence, is very deliberately made and has a link to awakening latent individual, and hence organisational, capabilities that would otherwise languish. The evolved LCM Model – a purposeful integration valuing the outcomes from lifelong learning (the L) with nurturing a culture supporting this outcome (the C) and with responsiveness to potentially diverse motivations (the M) – is a reflective device for bringing otherwise tacit, and latent, logic into the explicit realm of action. In the course of the development of the model, a number of supplementary models included in this dissertation have evolved from the research. They form a suite of devices which inform action and lead to making the most of what an individual knows and can do within the formal requirements of a job and within the informal influences of a frequently invisible community of practice. The initial inquiry drew upon the views and experiences of water industry engineering personnel and training facilitators associated with the contract cleaning and waste management industries. However, the major research occurred as an Emergency Management Australia (EMA) project with the Country Fire Authority (CFA) as the host organisation. This EMA/CFA research project explored the influence of making the most of what a CFA volunteer knows and can do upon retention of that volunteer. In its aggregate, across the CFA volunteer body, retention is a critical community safety objective. A qualitative research, ethnographic in character, approach was adopted. Data was collected through interviews, workshops and outcomes from attempts at action research projects. Following an initial thirteen month scoping study including respondents other than from the CFA, the research study moved into an exploration of the efficacy of an indicative model with four contextual foci – i.e. the manner of welcoming new members to the CFA, embracing training, strengthening brigade sustainability and leadership. Interestingly, the research environment which forced a truncated implementation of action research projects was, in itself, an informing experience indicative of inhibitors to making the most of what people know and can do. Competition for interest, time and commitment were factors governing the manner in which CFA respondents could be called upon to explore the efficacy of the model, and were a harbinger of the influences shaping the more general environment of drawing upon what CFA volunteers know and can do. Subsequent to the development of the indicative model, a further 16 month period was utilised in the ethnographic exploration of the relevance of the model within the CFA as the host organisation. As a consequence, the model is a more fully developed tool (framework) to aid reflection, planning and action. Importantly, the later phase of the research study has, through application of the model to specific goals within the CFA, yielded operational insight into its effective use, and in which activity systems have an important place. The model – now confidently styled as the LCM Model – has three elements that when enmeshed strengthen the likelihood of organisational achievement ; and the degree of this meshing, as relevant to the target outcome, determines the strength of outcome. i.e. - • Valuing outcomes from learning: When a person recognises and values (appropriately to achievement by the organisation) what they know and can do, and associated others recognise and value what this person knows and can do, then there is increased likelihood of these outcomes from learning being applied to organisational achievement. • Valuing a culture that is conducive to learning: When a person, and associated others, are further developing and drawing upon what they know and can do within the context of a culture that is conducive to learning, then there is increased likelihood that outcomes from learning will be applied to organisational achievement. • Valuing motivation of the individual: When a person’s motivation to apply what they know and can do is valued by them, and associated others, as appropriate to organisational achievement then there is increased likelihood that appropriately drawing upon outcomes from learning will occur. Activity theory was employed as a device to scope and explore understanding of the issues as they emerged in the course of the research study. Viewing the data through the prism of activity theory led not only to the development of the LCM Model but also to an enhanced understanding of the role of leadership as a foundation for acting upon the model. Both formal and informal leadership were found to be germane in asserting influence on empowering engagement with learning and drawing upon its outcomes. It is apparent that a “leaderful organisation”, as postulated by Raelin (2003), is an environment which supports drawing upon the LCM model; and it may be the case that the act of drawing upon the model will move a narrowly leadership focused organisation toward leaderful attributes. As foreshadowed at the beginning of this synopsis, nurturing individual and organisational capability is the guiding mantra for this dissertation - “Capability embraces competence but is also forward-looking, concerned with the realisation of potential” (Stephenson 1998, p. 3). Although the inquiry focussed upon a need for CFA volunteer retention, it began with a broader investigation as part of the scoping foundation and the expanded usefulness of the LCM Model invites further investigation. The dissertation concludes with the encapsulating sentiment that “You have really got to want to”. With this predisposition in mind, this dissertation contributes to knowledge through the development and discussion of the LCM model as a reflective device informing transformative learning (Mezirow and Associates 1990). A leaderful environment (Raelin 2003) aids transformative learning – accruing to the individual and the organisation - through engendering and maintaining making the most of knowledge and skill – motivating and sustaining “the will”. The outcomes from this research study are a strong assertion that wanting to make the most of what is known and can be done is a hallmark of capability. Accordingly, this dissertation is a contribution to the “how” of strengthening the capability, and the commitment to applying that capability, of an individual and an organisation.

CLTS: Lessons learnt from a pilot project in Timor Leste

Timor Leste, emerging from conflict ridden independence is one of the poorest countries in Asia, with major challenges in rebuilding infrastructure, particularly water and sanitation in rural areas. Community Led Total Sanitation is a relatively new approach to eliminate open defecation through community mobilisation and behaviour change, rather than subsidy and latrine construction. This paper discusses CLTS in the Timorese context, and highlights some key challenges in assessing the potential of CLTS to address sanitation issues. Some problems identified include a lack of coherence between the integration of water supply and sanitation, and the promotion of CLTS in isolation of any project activities that utilise any form of incentive or subsidy. The knock- on effect of the long term sustainability of latrine usage and maintenance CLTS is questioned unless further research clarifies the demand responsiveness of CLTS in conjunction with subsidy driven water supply.