Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution

Understanding the surface O3 response over a “receptor” region to emission changes over a foreign “source” region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale “import sensitivity” as the ratio of the O3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus “domestic” (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7–0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8–1.6 ppb). High O3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10–20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O3 of about 0.1 ppb a−1, at the low end of the 0.1–0.5 ppb a−1 derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source region.

Phylogenetic relationships withinPelargonium sect. Peristera (Geraniaceae) inferred from nrDNA and cpDNA sequence comparisons

Phylogenetic analysis of nrDNA ITS and trnL (UAA) 5′ exon-trnF (GAA) chloroplast DNA sequences from 17 species ofPelargonium sect.Peristera, together with nine putative outgroups, suggests paraphyly for the section and a close relationship between the highly disjunct South African and Australian species of sect.Peristera. Representatives fromPelargonium sectt.Reniformia, Ligularia s. l. andIsopetalum (the St. Helena endemicP. cotyledonis) appear to be nested within thePeristera clade. The close relationship between the South African and AustralianPeristera is interpreted as being caused by long-range dispersal to Australia, probably as recent as the late Pliocene.

Trust and relational embeddedness: exploring a paradox of trust pattern development in key supplier relationships

This paper explores the role of trust as an enabler and constraint between buyers and suppliers engaged in long-term relationships. According to the relational view, cooperative strategies require trust-based mutual commitments to co-create value. However, complete pictures of the positive and negative outcomes from trust development have yet to be fully developed. In particular, trust as an originator of path dependent constraints resulting from over embeddedness is yet to be integrated into the relational view. We use a case-based methodology to explore whether trust is an optimizing phenomenon in key supplier relationships. Two cases where trust development processes demonstrate a paradox of trust-building behaviors cultivate different outcomes constraining value co-creation.

A climate of control: flooding, displacement and planned resettlement in the Lower Zambezi River valley, Mozambique

In recent years, the potential role of planned, internal resettlement as a climate change adaptation measure has been highlighted by national governments and the international policy community. However, in many developing countries, resettlement is a deeply political process that often results in an unequal distribution of costs and benefits amongst relocated persons. This paper examines these tensions in Mozambique, drawing on a case study of flood-affected communities in the Lower Zambezi River valley. It takes a political ecology approach – focusing on discourses of human-environment interaction, as well as the power relationships that are supported by such discourses – to show how a dominant narrative of climate change-induced hazards for small-scale farmers is contributing to their involuntary resettlement to higher-altitude, less fertile areas of land. These forced relocations are buttressed by a series of wider economic and political interests in the Lower Zambezi River region, such dam construction for hydroelectric power generation and the extension of control over rural populations, from which resettled people derive little direct benefit. Rather than engaging with these challenging issues, most international donors present in the country accept the ‘inevitability’ of extreme weather impacts and view resettlement as an unfortunate and, in some cases, necessary step to increase people’s ‘resilience’, thus rationalising the top-down imposition of unpopular social policies. The findings add weight to the argument that a depoliticised interpretation of climate change can deflect attention away from underlying drivers of vulnerability and poverty, as well as obscure the interests of governments that are intent on reordering poor and vulnerable populations.

Ternary erbium chromium sulfides : structural relationships and magnetic properties

Single crystals of four erbium-chromium sulfides have been grown by chemical vapor transport using iodine as the transporting agent. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction reveals that in Er(3)CrS(6) octahedral sites are occupied exclusively by Cr(3+) cations, leading to one-dimensional CrS(4)(5-) chains of edge-sharing octahedra, while in Er(2)CrS(4), Er(3+), and Cr(2+) cations occupy the available octahedral sites in an ordered manner. By contrast, in Er(6)Cr(2)S(11) and Er(4)CrS(7), Er(3+) and Cr(2+) ions are disordered over the octahedral sites. In Er(2)CrS(4), Er(6)Cr(2)S(11), and Er(4)CrS(7), the network of octahedra generates an anionic framework constructed from M(2)S(5) slabs of varying thickness, linked by one-dimensional octahedral chains. This suggests that these three phases belong to a series in which the anionic framework may be described by the general formula [M(2n+1)S(4n+3)](x-), with charge balancing provided by Er(3+) cations located in sites of high-coordination number within one-dimensional channels defined by the framework. Er(4)CrS(7), Er(6)Cr(2)S(11), and Er(2)CrS(4) may thus be considered as the n = 1, 2, and infinity members of this series. While Er(4)CrS(7) is paramagnetic, successive magnetic transitions associated with ordering of the chromium and erbium sub-lattices are observed on cooling Er(3)CrS(6) (T(C)(Cr) = 30 K; T(C)(Er) = 11 K) and Er(2)CrS(4) (T(N)(Cr) = 42 K, T(N)(Er) = 10 K) whereas Er(6)Cr(2)S(11) exhibits ordering of the chromium sub-lattice only (T(N) = 11.4 K).

Occupying the margins: Labour integration and social exclusion in artisanal mining in Tanzania

This article examines the marginal position of artisanal miners in sub-Saharan Africa, and considers how they are incorporated into mineral sector change in the context of institutional and legal integration. Taking the case of diamond and gold mining in Tanzania, the concept of social exclusion is used to explore the consequences of marginalization on people's access to mineral resources and ability to make a living from artisanal mining. Because existing inequalities and forms of discrimination are ignored by the Tanzanian state, the institutionalization of mineral titles conceals social and power relations that perpetuate highly unequal access to resources. The article highlights the complexity of these processes, and shows that while legal integration can benefit certain wealthier categories of people, who fit into the model of an 'entrepreneurial small-scale miner', for others adverse incorporation contributes to socio-economic dependence, exploitation and insecurity. For the issue of marginality to be addressed within integration processes, the existence of local forms of organization, institutions and relationships, which underpin inequalities and discrimination, need to be recognized.

Relationships between yield and mineral concentrations in potato tubers

There is concern that modern cultivars and/or agronomic practices have resulted in reduced concentrations of mineral elements essential to human nutrition in edible crops. Increased yields are often associated with reduced concentrations of mineral elements in produce, and a number of recent studies have indicated that, when grown under identical conditions, the concentrations of several mineral elements are lower in genotypes yielding more grain or shoot biomass than in older, lower-yielding genotypes. Potato is a significant crop, grown worldwide, yet few studies have investigated whether increasing yields, through agronomy or breeding, affects the concentrations of mineral elements in tubers. This article examines the hypothesis that increasing yields, either by the application of mineral fertilizers and/or by growing higher-yielding varieties, leads to decreased concentrations of mineral elements in tubers. It reports that the application of fertilizers influences tuber elemental composition in a complex manner, presumably as a consequence of soil chemistry and interactions between mineral elements within the plant, that considerable variation exists between potato genotypes in the concentrations of mineral elements in their tubers, and that, like in other crops, higher-yielding genotypes occasionally have lower concentrations of some mineral elements in their edible tissues than lower-yielding genotypes.

The transatlantic dimensions of the time lord: Doctor Who and the relationships between British and North American television

This chapter explores some of the textual specificity of the Steven Moffat/Matt Smith Doctor Who, in relation to its positioning within the current transatlantic television landscape. The chapter develops further the existing scholarship on Doctor Who, by both offering a critical assessment of the transatlantic dimensions of the Moffat/Smith-era Doctor Who, and by challenging some of the existing critical arguments about Doctor Who's transatlantic dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the casting, physicality and costuming of actor Matt Smith as the Doctor in relation to notions of Britishness.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Relationships between plant traits and climate in the Mediterranean region: an analysis based on pollen data

Question: What are the correlations between the degree of drought stress and temperature, and the adoption of specific adaptive strategies by plants in the Mediterranean region? Location: 602 sites across the Mediterranean region. Method: We considered 12 plant morphological and phenological traits, and measured their abundance at the sites as trait scores obtained from pollen percentages. We conducted stepwise regression analyses of trait scores as a function of plant available moisture (α) and winter temperature (MTCO). Results: Patterns in the abundance for the plant traits we considered are clearly determined by α, MTCO or a combination of both. In addition, trends in leaf size, texture, thickness, pubescence and aromatic leaves and other plant level traits such as thorniness and aphylly, vary according to the life form (tree, shrub, forb), the leaf type (broad, needle) and phenology (evergreen, summer-green). Conclusions: Despite conducting this study based on pollen data we have identified ecologically plausible trends in the abundance of traits along climatic gradients. Plant traits other than the usual life form, leaf type and leaf phenology carry strong climatic signals. Generally, combinations of plant traits are more climatically diagnostic than individual traits. The qualitative and quantitative relationships between plant traits and climate parameters established here will help to provide an improved basis for modelling the impact of climate changes on vegetation and form a starting point for a global analysis of pollen-climate relationships

An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets

In the absence of market frictions, the cost-of-carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. It is argued that traditional tests, which assume that the underlying data generating process is constant, might be prone to overstate the lead-lag relationship. Using a new test for lead-lag relationships based on cross correlations and cross bicorrelations it is found that, contrary to results from using the traditional methodology, periods where the futures market leads the cash market are few and far between and when any lead-lag relationship is detected, it does not last long. Overall, the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard cost-of-carry model and market efficiency.

Postpartum GAD is a risk factor for postpartum MDD: the course and longitudinal relationships of postpartum GAD and MDD

Background The objective was to examine the course and longitudinal associations of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in mothers over the postpartum 2 years. Method Using a prospective naturalistic design, 296 mothers recruited from a large community pool were assessed for GAD and MDD at 3, 6, 10, 14, and 24 months postpartum. Structured clinical interviews were used for diagnoses, and symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine diagnostic stability and longitudinal relations, and latent variable modeling was employed to examine change in symptoms. Results MDD without co-occurring GAD, GAD without co-occurring MDD, and co-occurring GAD and MDD, displayed significant stability during the postpartum period. Whereas MDD did not predict subsequent GAD, GAD predicted subsequent MDD (in the form of GAD + MDD). Those with GAD + MDD at 3 months postpartum were significantly less likely to be diagnosis free during the follow-up period than those in other diagnostic categories. At the symptom level, symptoms of GAD were more trait-like than those of depression. Conclusions Postpartum GAD and MDD are relatively stable conditions, and GAD is a risk factor for MDD but not vice versa. Given the tendency of MDD and GAD to be persistent, especially when comorbid, and the increased risk for MDD in mothers with GAD, as well as the potential negative effects of cumulative exposure to maternal depression and anxiety on child development, the present findings clearly highlight the need for screening and treatment of GAD in addition to MDD during the postpartum period.