Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.

Female-specific intergenerational transmission patterns of the human corticolimbic circuitry

Parents have large genetic and environmental influences on offspring’s cognition, behavior, and brain. These intergenerational effects are observed in mood disorders, with particularly robust association in depression between mothers and daughters. No studies have thus far examined the neural bases of these intergenerational effects in humans. Corticolimbic circuitry is known to be highly relevant in a wide range of processes including mood regulation and depression. These findings suggest that corticolimbic circuitry may also show matrilineal transmission patterns. We therefore examined human parent-offspring association in this neurocircuitry, and investigated the degree of association in gray matter volume between parent and offspring. We used voxel-wise correlation analysis in a total of 35 healthy families, consisting of parents and their biological offspring. We found positive associations of regional grey matter volume in the corticolimbic circuit including the amygdala, hippocampus, anterior cingulate cortex, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex between biological mothers and daughters. This association was significantly greater than mother-son, father-daughter, and father-son associations. The current study suggests that the corticolimbic circuitry, which has been implicated in mood regulation, shows a matrilineal specific transmission patterns. Our preliminary findings are consistent with what has been found behaviorally in depression, and may have clinical implications for disorders known to have dysfunction in mood regulation such as depression. Studies such as ours will likely bridge animal work examining gene expression in the brains and clinical symptom-based observations, and provide promising ways to investigate intergenerational transmission patterns in the human brain.

The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy, however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market. Design/methodology/approach – The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment – the housing market channel. We estimate vector autoregressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states. Findings – We find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result we do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, we observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labour market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the LTV ratio. Originality/value – The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. We disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. We show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.

The “Great Queen of Lightninge Flashes”: the transmission of female-voiced burlesque poetry in the early seventeenth century

The essay uncovers evidence for the construction of the ‘woman author’ in the largely male vogue for bawdy burlesque poetry by tracing the circulation of a pair of verses through seventeenth-century manuscript and print miscellanies. It argues that just as these verses are reworked and recontextualised through the process of transmission, so to their ‘authors’ are re-embodied and ascribed different identities in different publication contexts. Female-voiced bawdy poetry raises particular problems for authorial attribution, rather than searching for the real woman behind the text, the essay examines how the ‘authors’ of female-voiced bawdy poetry were produced and reproduced through shifting formal frameworks and socioliterary networks.

Schooling and the intergenerational transmission of values

We present a model of the evolution of identity via dynamic interaction between the choice of education and the transmission of values in a community from parents to children, when parents care about the preservation of their traditional community values, different from the values of the host society. We compare the educational and socioeconomic outcomes in different scenarios (melting pot versus multiculturalism). If schooling shifts children’s identity away from their parents’ values, parents may choose lower levels of education for their children, at the cost of reducing their future earnings. We show how this effect can be attenuated and reversed when the school or, indeed, the host society are willing to accommodate the values of the community and/or to adjust to these values; otherwise the community gradually becomes alienated. This approach may be applied to the analysis of temporal changes in values and attitudes in a community of immigrants, as well as ethnic, religious, or other minority groups.

A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.

Skull Modularity in Neotropical Marsupials and Monkeys: Size Variation and Evolutionary Constraint and Flexibility

An organism is built through a series of contingent factors, yet it is determined by historical, physical, and developmental constraints. A constraint should not be understood as an absolute obstacle to evolution, as it may also generate new possibilities for evolutionary change. Modularity is, in this context, an important way of organizing biological information and has been recognized as a central concept in evolutionary biology bridging on developmental, genetics, morphological, biochemical, and physiological studies. In this article, we explore how modularity affects the evolution of a complex system in two mammalian lineages by analyzing correlation, variance/covariance, and residual matrices (without size variation). We use the multivariate response to selection equation to simulate the behavior of Eutheria and Metharia skulls in terms of their evolutionary flexibility and constraints. We relate these results to classical approaches based on morphological integration tests based on functional/developmental hypotheses. Eutherians (Neotropical primates) showed smaller magnitudes of integration compared with Metatheria (didelphids) and also skull modules more clearly delimited. Didelphids showed higher magnitudes of integration and their modularity is strongly influenced by within-groups size variation to a degree that evolutionary responses are basically aligned with size variation. Primates still have a good portion of the total variation based on size; however, their enhanced modularization allows a broader spectrum of responses, more similar to the selection gradients applied (enhanced flexibility). Without size variation, both groups become much more similar in terms of modularity patterns and magnitudes and, consequently, in their evolutionary flexibility. J. Exp. Zool. (Mol. Dev. Evol.) 314B:663-683, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Relative contribution of pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium

The relative contribution of the pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium was studied. A conjunction of myographical and electrophysiological techniques was employed. The preparation was the sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat, in vitro. The physiological variables recorded were nerve-evoked twitches (generated at 0.1 Hz), tetanic contractions (generated at 50 Hz) and end-plate potentials (epps), generated in trains of 50 Hz. The epps were analyzed in: amplitude of first epp in the train; mean amplitude of the 30th to the 59th epp in the train (epps-plateau); half-decay time of the epp; early tetanic rundown of epps in the train; plateau tetanic rundown of epps in the train; quantal content of the epps and quantal size. In myographical experiments, a concentration of vecuronium was found (0.8 mu m) that affected both twitches and tetanic contractions and a concentration of neostigmine was found (0.048 mu m) that completely restored the twitch affected by vecuronium. The cellular effects of vecuronium and neostigmine, studied alone or in association, in the above-mentioned concentrations, were scrutinized by means of electrophysiological techniques. These showed that vecuronium alone decreased the peak amplitude, the quantal content of epps and the quantal size and reinforced the tetanic rundown of epps. Neostigmine alone increased the peak amplitude, the quantal content and the half-decay time of the epps. When employed in the presence of vecuronium, neostigmine increased both the quantal content of the epps (via a presynaptic effect) and the half-decay time of the epps (via a postsynaptic effect). Seeing the pre- and the post-synaptic effects of neostigmine were of similar magnitude, they permit to conclude that both these effects contributed significantly to the restoration by neostigmine of the neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium.

Capillariaisis (Trichurida, Trichinellidae, Capillaria hepatica) in the Brazilian Amazon: low pathogenicity, low infectivity and a novel mode of transmission

Background: Human capillariasis caused by Capillaria hepatica (syn. Calodium hepaticum) is a rare disease with no more than 40 cases registered around the world. Classically, the disease has severe symptoms that mimic acute hepatitis. Natural reservoirs of C. hepatica are urban rodents (Mus musculus and Rattus novergicus) that harbor their eggs in the liver. After examining the feces of 6 riverine inhabitants (Rio Preto area, 8 degrees 03`S and 62 degrees 53`W to 8 degrees 14`S and 62 degrees 52`W) of the State of Rondonia, Brazil, and identifying C. hepatica eggs in their feces, the authors decided to investigate the real dimension of these findings by looking for two positive signals. Methods: Between June 1(st) and 15(th), 2008, 246 out of 304 individuals were clinically examined. Blood samples were collected, kept under -20 degrees C, and test by the indirect immunofluorescence technique. Results: The first positive signal was the presence of specific antibodies at 1: 150 dilution, which indicates that the person is likely to have been exposed to eggs, most likely non-infective eggs, passing through the food chain or via contaminated food (total prevalence of 34.1%). A second more specific signal was the presence of antibodies at higher titers, thus indicating true infection. Conclusions: The authors concluded that only two subjects were really infected (prevalence of 0.81%); the rest was false-positives that were sensitized after consuming non-embryonated eggs. The present study is the first one carried out in a native Amazonian population and indicates the presence of antibodies against C. hepatica in this population. The results further suggest that the transmission of the parasite occurs by the ingestion of embryonated eggs from human feces and/or carcasses of wild animals. The authors propose a novel mode of transmission, describing the disease as a low pathogenic one, and showing low infectivity.