Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.

‘Everyone now is concentrating on the mining’: drivers and implications of rural economic transition in the Eastern Region of Ghana

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is replacing smallholder farming as the principal income source in parts of rural Ghana. Structural adjustment policies have removed support for the country’s smallholders, devalued their produce substantially and stiffened competition with large-scale counterparts. Over one million people nationwide are now engaged in ASM. Findings from qualitative research in Ghana’s Eastern Region are drawn upon to improve understanding of the factors driving this pattern of rural livelihood diversification. The ASM sector and farming are shown to be complementary, contrary to common depictions in policy and academic literature.

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.

Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Education and training futures in horticulture and horticultural science

Horticultural knowledge and skills training have been with humankind for some 10,000 to 20,000 years. With permanent settlement and rising wealth and trade, horticulture products and services became a source of fresh food for daily consumption, and a source of plant material in developing a quality environment and lifestyle. The knowledge of horticulture and the skills of its practitioners have been demonstrated through the advancing civilizations in both eastern and western countries. With the rise of the Agricultural Revolutions in Great Britain, and more widely across Continental Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries, as well as the move towards colonisation and early migration to the New Worlds, many westernised countries established the early institutions that would provide education and training in agriculture and horticulture. Today many of these colleges and universities provide undergraduate, postgraduate and vocational and technical training that specifically targets horticulture and/or horticultural science with some research and teaching institutions also providing extension and advisory services to industry. The objective of this chapter is to describe the wider pedagogic and educational context in which those concerned with horticulture operate, the institutional structures that target horticulture and horticultural science education and training internationally; examine changing educational formats, especially distance education; and consider strategies for attracting and retaining young people in the delivery of world-class horticultural education. In this chapter we set the context by investigating the horticultural education and training options available, the constraints that prevent young people entering horticulture, and suggest strategies that would attract and retain these students. We suggest that effective strategies and partnerships be put in place by the institution, the government and most importantly the industry to provide for undergraduate and postgraduate education in horticulture and horticultural science; that educational and vocational training institutions, government, and industry need to work more effectively together to improve communication about horticulture and horticultural science in order to attract enrolments of more and talented students; and that the horticulture curriculum be continuously evaluated and revised so that it remains relevant to future challenges facing the industries of horticulture in the production, environmental and social spheres. These strategies can be used as a means to develop successful programs and case studies that would provide better information to high school career counsellors, improve the image of horticulture and encourage greater involvement from alumni and the industries in recruitment, provide opportunities to improve career aspirations, ensure improved levels of remuneration, and promote the social features of the profession and greater awareness and recognition of the profession in the wider community. A successful career in horticulture demands intellectual capacities which are capable of drawing knowledge from a wide field of basic sciences, economics and the humanities and integrating this into academic scholarship and practical technologies.

Monotone positive solutions for a fourth order equation with nonlinear boundary conditions

This work is concerned with the existence of monotone positive solutions for a class of beam equations with nonlinear boundary conditions. The results are obtained by using the monotone iteration method and they extend early works on beams with null boundary conditions. Numerical simulations are also presented. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Henon-like maps with arbitrary stationary combinatorics

We extend the renormalization operator introduced in [A. de Carvalho, M. Martens and M. Lyubich. Renormalization in the Henon family, I: universality but non-rigidity. J. Stat. Phys. 121(5/6) (2005), 611-669] from period-doubling Henon-like maps to Henon-like maps with arbitrary stationary combinatorics. We show that the renonnalization picture also holds in this case if the maps are taken to be strongly dissipative. We study infinitely renormalizable maps F and show that they have an invariant Cantor set O on which F acts like a p-adic adding machine for some p > 1. We then show, as for the period-doubling case in the work of de Carvalho, Martens and Lyubich [Renormalization in the Henon family, I: universality but non-rigidity. J. Stat. Phys. 121(5/6) (2005), 611-669], that the sequence of renormalizations has a universal form, but that the invariant Cantor set O is non-rigid. We also show that O cannot possess a continuous invariant line field.

Separation and Execution of graphical engine on a cross platform IDE to enhance performance

“Biosim” is a simulation software which works to simulate the harvesting system.This system is able to design a model for any logistic problem with the combination of several objects so that the artificial system can show the performance of an individual model. The system will also describe the efficiency, possibility to be chosen for real life application of that particular model. So, when any one wish to setup a logistic model like- harvesting system, in real life he/she may be noticed about the suitable prostitution for his plants and factories as well as he/she may get information about the least number of objects, total time to complete the task, total investment required for his model, total amount of noise produced for his establishment in advance. It will produce an advance over view for his model. But “Biosim” is quite slow .As it is an object based system, it takes long time to make its decision. Here the main task is to modify the system so that it can work faster than the previous. So, the main objective of this thesis is to reduce the load of “Biosim” by making some modification of the original system as well as to increase its efficiency. So that the whole system will be faster than the previous one and performs more efficiently when it will be applied in real life. Theconcept is to separate the execution part of ”Biosim” form its graphical engine and run this separated portion in a third generation language platform. C++ is chosenhere as this external platform. After completing the proposed system, results with different models have been observed. The results show that, for any type of plants of fields, for any number of trucks, the proposed system is faster than the original system. The proposed system takes at least 15% less time “Biosim”. The efficiency increase with the complexity of than the original the model. More complex the model, more efficient the proposed system is than original “Biosim”.Depending on the complexity of a model, the proposed system can be 56.53 % faster than the original “Biosim”.

La thématique de l’eau dans l’œuvre de Marguerite Duras

The aim of this thematic study is to examine how the water motif is used in Marguerite Duras’s literary work. The study shows that water has multiple functions in these texts: it is linked to major themes and creates an enigmatic atmosphere by its association with the unknown, the inexplicable and the unconscious. The strong presence of water in Duras’s texts is striking. References to the water element can be found in several titles throughout her career, from early works such as Un barrage contre le Pacifique (1950) to La mer écrite (1996), published just after her death. Almost all of her fiction take place near water – and the rain or the sound of waves serve as leitmotifs in specific novels. The water motif can play a metonymic as well as a metaphoric role in the texts and it sometimes takes on human or animalistic characteristics (Chapter 4). Several emblematic Durassian characters (e.g. the beggar-woman, Anne-Marie Stretter and Lol V. Stein) have a close relationship to water (Chapter 5). The water motif is linked to many major Durassian themes, and illustrates themes with positive connotations, for example, creation, fecundity, maternity, liberty and desire, as well as themes with negative connotations such as destruction and death (Chapter 6). A close reading of three novels, La vie tranquille (1944), L’après-midi de Monsieur Andesmas (1962) and La maladie de la mort (1982), shows that the realism of the first novel is replaced by intriguing evocations of the sea and the pond in the second text, motifs which resist straightforward interpretation. The enigmatic feeling persists in the last novel, in which the sea illustrates the overall sombre mood of the story (Chapter 7). Finally, the role of the water element in psychoanalytic theory is discussed (Chapter 8), and a parallel is drawn between the Jungian concept of the mother archetype and the water motif in Duras’s texts. The suggestion is made in this last chapter that water is used to illustrate an oriental influence (Taoist or Buddhist) of some of the female characters in Duras’s work.

Malthus to Solow

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modem industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth. This transition is inevitable given positive rates oftotal factor productivity growth. We use a standard growth mode1 with one good and two available techno10gies. The first, denoted the "Malthus" technology, requires 1and, labor and reproducible capital as inputs. The second, denoted the "Solow" technology, does not require land. We show that in the earIy stages of development, only the Malthus technology is used and, due to population growth, living standards are stagnant despite technological progresso Eventually, technological progress causes the Solow technology to become profitable and both technologies are employed. At this point, living standards improve since population growth has less influence on per capita income growth. In the limit, the economy behaves like a standard Solow growth model.

Signal transduction-related responses to phytohormones and environmental challenges in sugarcane

Background: Sugarcane is an increasingly economically and environmentally important C4 grass, used for the production of sugar and bioethanol, a low-carbon emission fuel. Sugarcane originated from crosses of Saccharum species and is noted for its unique capacity to accumulate high amounts of sucrose in its stems. Environmental stresses limit enormously sugarcane productivity worldwide. To investigate transcriptome changes in response to environmental inputs that alter yield we used cDNA microarrays to profile expression of 1,545 genes in plants submitted to drought, phosphate starvation, herbivory and N-2-fixing endophytic bacteria. We also investigated the response to phytohormones (abscisic acid and methyl jasmonate). The arrayed elements correspond mostly to genes involved in signal transduction, hormone biosynthesis, transcription factors, novel genes and genes corresponding to unknown proteins.Results: Adopting an outliers searching method 179 genes with strikingly different expression levels were identified as differentially expressed in at least one of the treatments analysed. Self Organizing Maps were used to cluster the expression profiles of 695 genes that showed a highly correlated expression pattern among replicates. The expression data for 22 genes was evaluated for 36 experimental data points by quantitative RT-PCR indicating a validation rate of 80.5% using three biological experimental replicates. The SUCAST Database was created that provides public access to the data described in this work, linked to tissue expression profiling and the SUCAST gene category and sequence analysis. The SUCAST database also includes a categorization of the sugarcane kinome based on a phylogenetic grouping that included 182 undefined kinases.Conclusion: An extensive study on the sugarcane transcriptome was performed. Sugarcane genes responsive to phytohormones and to challenges sugarcane commonly deals with in the field were identified. Additionally, the protein kinases were annotated based on a phylogenetic approach. The experimental design and statistical analysis applied proved robust to unravel genes associated with a diverse array of conditions attributing novel functions to previously unknown or undefined genes. The data consolidated in the SUCAST database resource can guide further studies and be useful for the development of improved sugarcane varieties.

Monitoramento por dgps e análise dos processos erosivos da linha de costa na praia de Pirangi do Norte - Parnamirim / RN

Through out the course of a steady increase in search and recovery of space in the coastal zone, there is also an expanding concern about the erosion processes of this area. The main problem in coastal areas is that urbanization occurs in a disorderly fashion and unsustainable, further aggravating the problems of coastal dynamics. The study area of this work is located on the southern coast of Pirangi do Norte beach to about 20km south of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte in the Parnamirim City. This area has the length of approximately 1km, divided into three sections (Western, Central and Eastern) with a morphology consisting of a tableland at the top, sea cliffs in the West and Central parts and sand dunes in the Eastern section, both vegetated, and a coastal plain on the inferior part associated with the presence of beach rocks. This study aimed to analyze the erosion processes operating in the excerpt of Pirangi do Norte beach and assess the feasibility of their monitoring making use of DGPS (Global Positioning System Differential mode). During the work it was carried out a physical description of the area through photo-interpretation and site survey after measurement of the shoreline in the period between November 2004 and November 2009 and beach profiles between August 2005 and July 2006. The analysis of the results of the annual surveys showed the occurrence of variations of the shoreline along the stretch traveled. Sites are identified in advancement coast from the sea and it was verified in loco the presence of erosion with deposition of materials on the lower part of the coastal bluff, the former position of the shoreline, showing a false notion of advancing it. This leads to the conclusion that the data collected in a survey of the shoreline should always be accompanied by photographic records of the local area and with the highest rate of erosion, thus avoiding the mistake of treating the deposit materials as evidence of progress coast. At the end of the study, after a review of various works to mitigate the erosion in the coastal zone, it is recommended to the area of study the adoption of an artificial feeding of the beach, aiming the minimization of the erosive effects of the tides. Moreover, it is suggested that even the continuity of monitoring, maintenance of existing vegetation and control of the occupation on the edge of sea cliffs