Lack of association between central adiposity and lipaemia in UK Sikh men

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the positive statistical associations between measures of total and regional adiposity and measures of glucose, insulin and triacylglycerol ( TAG) metabolism reported in Caucasian men, are also observed in UK Sikhs. DESIGN: A matched cross-sectional study in which each volunteer provided a blood sample after a 12-h overnight fast and had anthropometric measurements taken. SUBJECTS: A total of 55 healthy Caucasian and 55 healthy UK Sikh men were recruited. The Caucasian and Sikh men were matched for age ( 48.7 +/- 10.9 and 48.3 +/- 10.0 y, respectively) and body mass index (BMI) ( 26.1 +/- 2.8 and 26.3 +/- 3.2 kg/m(2), respectively). MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometric measurements were performed to assess total and regional fat depots. The concentrations of plasma total cholesterol, high-density cholesterol (HDL- C), low-density cholesterol (LDL-C) and small dense LDL (LDL3), TAG, glucose, fasting insulin (ins) and nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) were analysed in fasted plasma. Surrogate measures of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and insulin sensitivity (RQUICKI) were calculated from insulin and glucose (HOMA-IR) and insulin, glucose and NEFA ( RQUICKI) measurements. RESULTS: The Sikh men had significantly higher body fat, with the sum of the four skinfold measurements (Ssk) ( P = 0.0001) and subscapular skinfold value (P = 0.009) higher compared with the Caucasian men. The Sikh volunteers also had characteristics of the metabolic syndrome: lower HDL-C (P = 0.07), higher TAG (P = 0.004), higher % LDL3 (P = 0.0001) and insulin resistance (P = 0.05). Both ethnic groups demonstrated positive correlations between insulin and waist circumference (Caucasian: r = 0.661, P = 0.0001; Sikh: r = 0.477, P = 0.0001). The Caucasian men also demonstrated significant positive correlations between central adiposity (r = 0.275, P = 0.04), other measures of adiposity (BMI and suprailiac skinfold) and plasma TAG, whereas the Sikh men showed no correlation for central adiposity (r = 0.019, ns) and TAG with a trend to a negative relationship between other measures ( Ssk and suprailiac) which reached near significance for subscapular skinfold and TAG (r = - 0.246, P = 0.007). The expected positive association between insulin and TAG was observed in the Caucasian men (r = 0.318, P = 0.04) but not in the Sikh men (r = 0.011, ns). CONCLUSIONS: In the Caucasian men, the expected positive association between plasma TAG and centralized body fat was observed. However, a lack of association between centralized, or any other measure of adiposity, and plasma TAG was observed in the matched Sikh men, although both ethnic groups showed the positive association between centralized body fat and insulin resistance, which was less strong for Sikhs. These findings in the Sikh men were not consistent with the hypothesis that there is a clear causal relationship between body fat and its distribution, insulin resistance, and lipid abnormalities associated with the metabolic syndrome, in this ethnic group.

Gene-nutrient interactions in the metabolic syndrome: single nucleotide polymorphisms in ADIPOQ and ADIPOR1 interact with plasma saturated fatty acids to modulate insulin resistance

Background: Progression of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is determined by genetic and environmental factors. Gene-environment interactions may be important in modulating the susceptibility to the development of MetS traits. Objective: Gene-nutrient interactions were examined in MetS subjects to determine interactions between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the adiponectin gene (ADIPOQ) and its receptors (ADIPOR1 and ADIPOR2) and plasma fatty acid composition and their effects on MetS characteristics. Design: Plasma fatty acid composition, insulin sensitivity, plasma adiponectin and lipid concentrations, and ADIPOQ, ADIPOR1, and ADIPOR2 SNP genotypes were determined in a cross-sectional analysis of 451 subjects with the MetS who participated in the LIPGENE (Diet, Genomics, and the Metabolic Syndrome: an Integrated Nutrition, Agro-food, Social, and Economic Analysis) dietary intervention study and were repeated in 1754 subjects from the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX (SUpplementation en VItamines et Mineraux AntioXydants) case-control study (http://www.ucd.ie/lipgene). Results: Single SNP effects were detected in the cohort. Triacylglycerols, nonesterified fatty acids, and waist circumference were significantly different between genotypes for 2 SNPs (rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1). Minor allele homozygotes for both of these SNPs were identified as having degrees of insulin resistance, as measured by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, that were highly responsive to differences in plasma saturated fatty acids (SFAs). The SFA-dependent association between ADIPOR1 rs10920533 and insulin resistance was replicated in cases with MetS from a separate independent study, which was an association not present in controls. Conclusions: A reduction in plasma SFAs could be expected to lower insulin resistance in MetS subjects who are minor allele carriers of rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1. Personalized dietary advice to decrease SFA consumption in these individuals may be recommended as a possible therapeutic measure to improve insulin sensitivity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.

Lack of association between lipaemia and central adiposity in subjects with an atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP)

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between indices of adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors in individuals with an atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP). SUBJECTS: Fifty-five men, aged 34-69 y, body mass index (BMI) 22-35 kg/m2, with an ALP lipid profile (triglycerides (TG) 1.5-4.0 mmol/l, HDL<1.1 mmol/l; %LDL-3>40% total LDL). DESIGN: Each participant provided a fasting blood sample and underwent an 8 h postprandial assessment and had anthropometric measurements taken. OUTCOME MEASURES: BMI, waist circumference (W), waist-to-hip ratio (W/H), sum of skinfolds (SSK), fasting and postprandial concentrations of glucose, insulin and plasma lipids, post-heparin lipase activity, and apoE genotype. RESULTS: The expected positive associations between BMI, W and SSK and fasting and postprandial insulin were observed (r=0.42-0.65). Little association between glucose responses and any measures of adiposity was evident. Unexpectedly, there were no positive associations between measures of central adiposity (W and W/H) and fasting and postprandial TG responses, with a trend towards negative associations in this study group (TG AUC vs W, r=-0.23, P=0.097; TG IAUC vs W/H, r=-0.26, P=0.068). Subgroup analysis indicated that lack of a positive association between central adiposity and postprandial TG values was more evident in those with one E4 allele (r=-0.42, P=0.077) relative to non-E4 carriers (r=-0.16, P=0.430). The expected positive associations between insulin and TG responses were not observed (r=-0.03 to -0.36). CONCLUSION: In this ALP group the expected positive association between TG responses and a centralized distribution of body fat was not observed, particularly in individuals with an apoE4 genotype. Our findings are not in line with the view that there is a clear causal relationship between insulin resistance and the lipid abnormalities associated with ALP.

The potential for bias in reporting of industry-sponsored clinical trials

Concerns about potentially misleading reporting of pharmaceutical industry research have surfaced many times. The potential for duality (and thereby conflict) of interest is only too clear when you consider the sums of money required for the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines. As the ability of major, mid-size and small pharmaceutical companies to innovate has waned, as evidenced by the seemingly relentless decline in the numbers of new medicines approved by Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency year-on-year, not only has the cost per new approved medicine risen: so too has the public and media concern about the extent to which the pharmaceutical industry is open and honest about the efficacy, safety and quality of the drugs we manufacture and sell. In 2005 an Editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association made clear that, so great was their concern about misleading reporting of industry-sponsored studies, henceforth no article would be published that was not also guaranteed by independent statistical analysis. We examine the precursors to this Editorial, as well as its immediate and lasting effects for statisticians, for the manner in which statistical analysis is carried out, and for the industry more generally.

Income multiples and mortgage repossession in the UK

This paper presents the findings of the study that examines how income multiples for mortgage loan associates with home repossession using the data of the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). It employs a statistical measure for improving regression efficiency with conditioning information in the form of lagged instrument to unravel the pattern of association evident from the data. Based on the data, the study investigates what level of income multiples is optimum – that is the income multiple that minimises home repossession. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken to show how home repossession responds to changes in income multiples. For each of the analytical tasks, the study compares the aggregate market, first-time-buyers, and home movers.

Phenotype MicroArray (TM) in the metabolic characterisation of Salmonella serotypes Agona, Enteritidis, Give, Hvittingfoss, Infantis, Newport and Typhimurium

The Phenotype MicroArray (TM) (PM) technology was used to study the metabolic characteristics of 29 Salmonella strains belonging to seven serotypes of S. enterica spp. enterica. Strains of serotypes Typhimurium (six strains among definite phage types DTs 1, 40 and 104) and Agona (two strains) were tested for 949 substrates, Enteritidis (six strains of phage type PT1), Give, Hvittingfoss, Infantis and Newport strains (two of each) were tested for 190 substrates and seven other Agona strains for 95 substrates. The strains represented 18 genotypes in pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Among 949 substrates, 18 were identified that could be used to differentiate between the strains of those seven serotypes or within a single serotype. Unique metabolic differences between the Finnish endemic Typhimurium DT1 and Agona strains were detected, for example, in the metabolism of d-tagatose, d-galactonic acid gamma-lactone and l-proline as a carbon source. Thus, the PM technique is a useful tool for identifying potential differential markers on a metabolic basis that could be used for epidemiological surveillance.

Extending feature usage: a study of the post-adoption of electronic medical records

Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) posits that Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU) and Perceived Usefulness (PU) influence the ‘intention to use’. The Post-Acceptance Model (PAM) posits that continued use is influenced by prior experience. In order to study the factors that influence how professionals use complex systems, we create a tentative research model that builds on PAM and TAM. Specifically we include PEOU and the construct ‘Professional Association Guidance’. We postulate that feature usage is enhanced when professional associations influence PU by highlighting additional benefits. We explore the theory in the context of post-adoption use of Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) by primary care physicians in Ontario. The methodology can be extended to other professional environments and we suggest directions for future research.

Excise taxes and commodity promotion bayesian retrieval of the optimum

This article shows how the solution to the promotion problem—the problem of locating the optimal level of advertising in a downstream market—can be derived simply, empirically, and robustly through the application of some simple calculus and Bayesian econometrics. We derive the complete distribution of the level of promotion that maximizes producer surplus and generate recommendations about patterns as well as levels of expenditure that increase net returns. The theory and methods are applied to quarterly series (1978:2S1988:4) on red meats promotion by the Australian Meat and Live-Stock Corporation. A slightly different pattern of expenditure would have profited lamb producers

One size fits all: the increasing standardisation of English teachers' work in England

English teachers in England have experienced a lengthy period of external constraint, increasingly controlling their practice. This constraint was originated in the 1989 National curriculum. Although in its first version it was in harmony with practice, its numerous revisions have moved it a long way from teachers’ own values and beliefs. This move is illustrated through research into the teaching of literature, which is seen by English teachers as often arid and driven by examinations alone. This period has been increasingly dominated by high-stakes testing, school league tables and frequent school inspections. Another powerful element has been the introduction of Standards for teachers at every career level from student teachers to the Advanced Skills Teachers. Research demonstrates that this introduction of Standards has had some beneficial effects. However, research also shows that the government decision to replace all these, hierarchically structured standards, with a single standard is seen by many teachers as a retrograde step. Evidence from Advanced Skills Teachers of English shows that the government’s additional proposal to bring in a Master Teacher standard is equally problematic. The decline of the National Association for the Teaching of English, the key subject association for English teachers, is discussed in relation to this increasingly negative and constraining environment, concluding that many English teachers are choosing a form of local resistance which, while understandable, weakens the credibility of the profession and erodes the influence of its key voice, NATE.

Association mapping of partitioning loci in barley

Background: Association mapping, initially developed in human disease genetics, is now being applied to plant species. The model species Arabidopsis provided some of the first examples of association mapping in plants, identifying previously cloned flowering time genes, despite high population sub-structure. More recently, association genetics has been applied to barley, where breeding activity has resulted in a high degree of population sub-structure. A major genotypic division within barley is that between winter- and spring-sown varieties, which differ in their requirement for vernalization to promote subsequent flowering. To date, all attempts to validate association genetics in barley by identifying major flowering time loci that control vernalization requirement (VRN-H1 and VRN-H2) have failed. Here, we validate the use of association genetics in barley by identifying VRN-H1 and VRN-H2, despite their prominent role in determining population sub-structure. Results: By taking barley as a typical inbreeding crop, and seasonal growth habit as a major partitioning phenotype, we develop an association mapping approach which successfully identifies VRN-H1 and VRN-H2, the underlying loci largely responsible for this agronomic division. We find a combination of Structured Association followed by Genomic Control to correct for population structure and inflation of the test statistic, resolved significant associations only with VRN-H1 and the VRN-H2 candidate genes, as well as two genes closely linked to VRN-H1 (HvCSFs1 and HvPHYC). Conclusion: We show that, after employing appropriate statistical methods to correct for population sub-structure, the genome-wide partitioning effect of allelic status at VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 does not result in the high levels of spurious association expected to occur in highly structured samples. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both VRN-H1 and the candidate VRN-H2 genes can be identified using association mapping. Discrimination between intragenic VRN-H1 markers was achieved, indicating that candidate causative polymorphisms may be discerned and prioritised within a larger set of positive associations. This proof of concept study demonstrates the feasibility of association mapping in barley, even within highly structured populations. A major advantage of this method is that it does not require large numbers of genome-wide markers, and is therefore suitable for fine mapping and candidate gene evaluation, especially in species for which large numbers of genetic markers are either unavailable or too costly.

Partially identified treatment effects under imperfect compliance: the case of domestic violence

The Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment (MDVE) is a randomized social experiment with imperfect compliance which has been extremely influential in how police officers respond to misdemeanor domestic violence. This paper re-examines data from the MDVE, using recent literature on partial identification to find recidivism associated with a policy that arrests misdemeanor domestic violence suspects rather than not arresting them. Using partially identified bounds on the average treatment effect I find that arresting rather than not arresting suspects can potentially reduce recidivism by more than two-and-a-half times the corresponding intent-to-treat estimate and more than two times the corresponding local average treatment effect, even when making minimal assumptions on counterfactuals.

Turing, Kasparov and the future

The 'Turing 100' Conference in Manchester was the main event of the Turing Centenary Year in 2012. This is a report and reflection on Kasparov's popular talk. Within it, he explained how Turing and influenced computer chess, his career and the chess community. Kasparov also played Chessbase's 'TURING' emulation of Turing's second paper chess engine, here labelled 'AT2'. Quasi Turing-tests, computer contributions to world championship chess, and suspected cheating in chess are also mentioned.

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility show enriched association within a large genome-wide association study for BMI

Before the advent of genome-wide association studies (GWASs), hundreds of candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility had been identified through a variety of approaches. We examined whether those obesity candidate genes are enriched for associations with body mass index (BMI) compared with non-candidate genes by using data from a large-scale GWAS. A thorough literature search identified 547 candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility based on evidence from animal studies, Mendelian syndromes, linkage studies, genetic association studies and expression studies. Genomic regions were defined to include the genes ±10 kb of flanking sequence around candidate and non-candidate genes. We used summary statistics publicly available from the discovery stage of the genome-wide meta-analysis for BMI performed by the genetic investigation of anthropometric traits consortium in 123 564 individuals. Hypergeometric, rank tail-strength and gene-set enrichment analysis tests were used to test for the enrichment of association in candidate compared with non-candidate genes. The hypergeometric test of enrichment was not significant at the 5% P-value quantile (P = 0.35), but was nominally significant at the 25% quantile (P = 0.015). The rank tail-strength and gene-set enrichment tests were nominally significant for the full set of genes and borderline significant for the subset without SNPs at P < 10(-7). Taken together, the observed evidence for enrichment suggests that the candidate gene approach retains some value. However, the degree of enrichment is small despite the extensive number of candidate genes and the large sample size. Studies that focus on candidate genes have only slightly increased chances of detecting associations, and are likely to miss many true effects in non-candidate genes, at least for obesity-related traits.